June 14, 2024

BTC reached a high of $68,449.30 yesterday, but failed to break through the capital flow resistance in the $68,768-68,882 range. The resistance has been updated to $68,522.22 today, which has put great pressure on the price.

Yesterday, the net outflow was about $987 million. Today's data continued to weaken. Short-term indicators show that the market has shifted from shock consolidation to shock adjustment.

Support levels: $65,675 and $65,259.
If it turns into resistance, it may fall further to the $63,100-61,684 area. $66,150 is the protective support of the key support area. If it falls below $66,150, it will be a downward exploration signal.

Resistance level: The capital flow resistance zone is at $68,522.22. BTC needs to break through and stay above this level for 24 hours to stabilize the trend. Indicators: Daily chart indicators show 0% bullish signals and 100% bearish signals.

The long-short ratio rose to 2.21, showing a clear bearish advantage.
Open interest: The total open interest of futures contracts is $34.82 billion, down 1.97% from the previous trading day.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 74, with a turnover rate of 15%.

Short-term: Unable to break through the capital flow resistance, followed by a pullback, and weak market data. This leads to a shock adjustment phase. If the key support level is broken, the risk of a bearish reversal increases.

Long-term: BTC continues to maintain a long-term bullish trend, but signs of a short-term correction are reappearing. Traders holding large positions can consider reducing their holdings and managing risks. Overall, it is recommended to maintain a controllable position.

The unexpected decline in the US Producer Price Index (USPPI) in May and the number of first-time unemployment claims exceeded expectations raised the implied probability of a rate cut in September to 61.1%.

However, these data are less influential than CPI, PCE and non-farm payrolls, so they may not have a significant impact on financial markets such as BTC. Further assessment will depend on the release of more key data.

June 13, 2024

Last night, the overall US CPI data showed a downward trend. The market was initially bullish, and BTC rebounded strongly as expected, but then the Fed’s interest rate decision was announced, and the dot plot of only one interest rate cut was announced, as well as Powell’s speech. The market began to worry about the prospect of the Fed’s interest rate hike.

The emergence of cautious interest rate cut remarks has led to a significant reversal in the market, resulting in BTC’s failure to maintain its strength in the capital flow area. Previous data show that BTC is currently in a state of consolidation and shock.

Yesterday’s net inflow was about US$1.257 billion. Today’s closing price and opening price are both below the daily capital outflow area of ​​US$68,768~68,882. Failure to hold this area means that the market has not effectively turned bullish.

But it has now entered a period of consolidation and shock. According to early trading data, BTC may fluctuate around this area throughout the day. Today’s shock range is expected to be $66,705.36~$69,498.96.

Resistance: US$68,768~US$68,882.
Support: $66,705.36.
Indicators: The daily chart indicator shows a 10% bullish signal and a 90% bearish signal.
Long-short ratio: The ratio of long and short positions has dropped to 1.66, showing a slight bearish advantage.
Funding rate: The range is from -0.0078% to 0.01%, reflecting pessimism.
Open interest: The total open interest of futures contracts is $35.89 billion, down 3.06% from the previous trading day.
Fear and Greed Index: It is 72, and the turnover rate is 19%.

Macroeconomic data has eased, downside risks have decreased, and it has entered a consolidation and shock stage. In the long run, BTC is still in a bullish trend, and signs of a pullback have temporarily eased.

US CPI data for May showed that the unadjusted annual rate was 3.3%, lower than the expected 3.4%, a three-month low. The core CPI in May recorded 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5%, the lowest level since April 2021.

The decline increased market expectations for two rate cuts in 2024. However, the Fed’s dot plot and Powell’s comments have tempered those expectations and now suggest only one rate cut, likely in September or November, with a current probability of more than 50%.

June 12, 2024

Yesterday, BTC fell to $66,000 before stabilizing at the previous support level of $65,746. Today, the support level has moved to $65,878.10 to $65,687.20, while the resistance level has moved down to $68,862.30 to $68,532.30. Early data suggests that BTC may trade weakly between the two.

Yesterday's net outflow was about $1.41 billion, and this adjustment continued, causing BTC to drop to the $65878.10~65687.20 range earlier than expected, resulting in today's data going down and the point shifting.

The current resistance level is $68,862.30~$68,532.30, which puts strong pressure on the price, and the weak performance in the early trading makes it unlikely that BTC will break through this resistance level in the short term.

From a technical perspective, the $66,600-$66,400 area is a protective support. If this support turns into resistance, the short-term capital flow trend may turn to a bearish stance. This support level is crucial and should be closely watched.

Capital flow resistance is at $68,862.30-$68,532.30.
Daily chart indicators show 10% bullish and 90% bearish.
The ratio of long positions to short positions has dropped to 2.16, showing a bearish advantage.
Market sentiment: Short-term long positions account for 47.5% and short positions account for 52.5%.

Funding rate ranges from -0.0078% to 0.01%, indicating pessimistic sentiment.
Total futures open interest is $35.89 billion, down 3.06% from the previous day.
The Fear and Greed Index is 72, with a turnover rate of 21%.

BTC market sentiment further turned negative due to the impact of non-agricultural data. The upcoming US May CPI data will determine whether the short-term trend will rebound or turn to a bearish mode. Long-term investors should guard against downward pressure and manage risks carefully.

In terms of macroeconomics, before the release of US CPI data and the Fed's interest rate decision, the market is in the off-season, non-agricultural employment data unexpectedly rose, expectations of interest rate cuts weakened, and market sentiment was slightly pessimistic.

Pay close attention to the US CPI data tonight and the remarks of Fed Chairman Powell in the Fed statement, as this may cause large price fluctuations or further declines. Manage your risks accordingly!

June 11, 2024

Yesterday's data showed that Bitcoin prices saw a small adjustment and were in a consolidation state for most of the day. Although Bitcoin prices briefly tested $71,650.23, they still found support at $70,117.64. This morning's data shows that Bitcoin prices are biased towards bullish trends and further consolidation.

Net outflows of about $7.73 billion yesterday. Today's key resistance level has moved to $71,800. To further release the upside potential, BTC needs to effectively break through this level. Early data points indicate a test of around $70,007.59, with potential price movements as high as $71,800.

Technical: BTC continues to extend the trend of expanding data structure. Affected by the upward flow of funds, the short-term range is $68,720.45-72,330.96. There is a certain fluctuation space before and after the release of today's US non-farm payrolls data, which may push BTC out of the expected range.

Fund flow support; $69,241.96 - $68,720.45.
Daily indicators: 90% bullish, 10% bearish.
Long-short ratio: 1.08, slightly bullish.
Short-term market: 48.5% bullish, 51.5% bearish, slightly bearish advantage.
Futures open interest: $377. 2B, stable.
Greed index: 77, departure rate: 11%.

According to the data, BTC may break out of the range. Although the daily data limits the short-term upside, the overall long-term trend remains bullish. Maintain a bullish stance, but manage positions carefully.

Macro: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the first since 2019, and raised inflation expectations. ECB officials ruled out the possibility of a second rate cut in July. The US is now focusing on tonight's non-farm payrolls report. Some believe that the actual data may be weaker than expected.

June 7, 2024

Yesterday's data showed a small correction in the price of Bitcoin, which was in a consolidation state for most of the day. Although the price of Bitcoin briefly tested $71,650.23 in the evening, the support level was $70,117.64, just above the key $70,368.89 level. This morning's data shows that the price of Bitcoin is biased towards bullish consolidation.

Net outflows of about $7.73 billion yesterday. The key resistance level today has moved to $71,800. To further unlock the upside potential, BTC needs to effectively break through this level. Early data points indicate a test of around $70,007.59, with potential price action as high as $71,800.

Technicals: The short-term range is $68,720.45-72,330.96, and the market may fluctuate after the release of US non-farm payrolls later today. The data release may cause large price fluctuations, and may even exceed the expected range.

Funding flow support is between $69,241.96 and $68,720.45.
Daily indicators: 90% bullish, 10% bearish.
Long-short ratio: 1.08, slightly bullish.
Funding rate: 0.0057-0.01%, below average.
Futures open interest: $377. 2B, stable.
Greed index: 77, departure rate: 11%.

Overall, BTC will still hover in a narrow range of $70,007.5 to $71,800, awaiting the US non-farm payrolls data. BTC may break out of this range based on the data released. Although daily data limits short-term upside, the overall long-term trend remains bullish.

Macro: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the first since 2019, and raised inflation expectations. ECB officials ruled out the possibility of a second rate cut in July. The US Challenger and unemployment claims data had little impact, and the focus is now on tonight's non-farm payrolls report.

June 6, 2024

Yesterday, BTC tested $71,473.3 several times during the day, briefly broke through in the evening, and fell back after reaching a high of $71,758. Despite the volatility, today's data and trend are still bullish, and the increasing points indicate the potential for further gains.

Net inflow of about $10.07 billion. Continued capital inflows and high bullish sentiment have boosted the overall data and levels. The early resistance level will move to $71,650.23, and there may be a small adjustment. If the volume and capital inflows continue, the price may reach $72,368.36.

Technical: With the continuous inflow of funds and the continuous increase in data points, the trend is bullish. The current support level is between $69,157.03 and $70,368.89. Despite a small price correction, it is still expected to break through and continue the upward trend to a new target area.

Funding flow support is $69,157.03 to $68,411.13.
Daily indicators: 90% bullish, 10% bearish.
Long-short ratio: 0.93, favoring bulls.
Funding rate: 0.0066-0.0126%, bullish sentiment.
Futures open interest: $376.7 billion, up 1.62%.
Greed index: 78, turnover rate: 15%.

Overall, BTC has a strong upward momentum, and trading volume and capital inflows have driven price space to expand. Prices may face daily data structure restrictions, but they are still inclined to rise further after an effective breakthrough. Stay bullish while managing positions.

Macro: The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 152,000 in May, the smallest increase since January, indicating a cooling trend in the economy, which boosted market expectations for a rate cut in September. Futures show a probability of a rate cut of 57.2%, and 2/3 of economists in a Reuters survey expect a rate cut in September.

June 5, 2024

Yesterday, BTC showed strong upward momentum, with both pivot flow and money flow supporting the price. It broke through the upper limit of $70,950 to $70,999 and briefly touched $71,063 at 2 a.m. before a small pullback. The upward breakout trend remains intact.

Net inflow of about $10.12 billion. The price action in the early morning pushed up the upper limit, lifting the key level. Today's upper limit extends to $71,473.30, with weak resistance. Continued strong data and bullish bias indicate that the probability of a further breakout to $73,522.80 is high.

Technical: MACD turned positive, showing that the data is recovering. The price is about to break through the previous negative divergence resistance line, and if it breaks, there is potential for further gains.

Money flow support is $68,451.20.
Daily indicators: 90% bullish, 10% bearish.
Long-Short Ratio: 0.97, favors bulls.
Funding Rate: 0.0046-0.0253%, bullish sentiment.
Futures Open Interest: $369.9 billion, up 5.7% from yesterday.
Greed Index: 75, Departure Rate: 15%.

Overall, BTC has entered the upper range, pushing key levels higher. As the bullish bias persists, a breakout seems likely and could extend the upside to $73,522.80. The long-term trend remains bullish, and short-term technicals suggest further gains.

Macro: U.S. job openings fell to the lowest level since 2021 in April, indicating a cooling labor market. This boosted market confidence in a September rate cut, with futures showing a 55.3% probability of a rate cut. Focus on macroeconomic data.

June 4, 2024

Yesterday's price action saw BTC break above $68,996.1 in the afternoon, reaching a high of $70,288 before falling back and entering the projected 3-day high range. Today marks the beginning of a range of fluctuations around the pivot point.

Net inflows of $10.01 billion. Yesterday's price action pushed into the 3-day high range, lifting today's pivot zone: upper rail at $70,950, pivot at $68,045, and lower rail at $66,283. Early data shows continued upward movement, fluctuating around the pivot.

Technicals: MACD negative energy bars are narrowing, indicating weakening downward pressure. Horizontal and oscillating price action allows for technical recovery. The current pivot zone indicates a critical juncture with the potential for major moves.

Current range: upper limit at $70,950, pivot at $68,045, and lower limit at $66,283. In case of a bullish breakout, the range will expand: up to $73,439.49. Price action around the pivot point will determine the breakout direction. A breakout above/below the pivot area indicates a directional trend.

Pivot support is $68,045.
Daily indicators: 70% bullish, 30% bearish.
Long-short ratio: 1.40, in favor of bulls.
Funding rate: 0.0097-0.0146%, normal levels.
Futures open interest: $341.7 billion, stable since last Friday.
Greed index: 73, departure rate: 15%.

Overall, BTC rose to a 3-day high range, triggering a volatility zone with a high pivot. Current trading favors an upward move around the pivot. Long-term bullish trend remains, short-term technicals are recovering, and downside pressure has eased.

Macro: US May ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, falling for the second consecutive month. Data showed high borrowing costs and weak consumer spending. Increased liquidity demand pushed the probability of a rate cut in September to over 50% (52.6%). Keep a close eye on macro data.

June 3, 2024

BTC fell below $67,134.80 last Friday, hitting a low of $66,670 before rebounding to $67,134.80, avoiding a decisive break. Today's early trading data fluctuated narrowly between $67,134.80 and $68,996.16, and the overall range narrowed.

Net outflow of $11.28 billion over the weekend. The drop to $66,670 on Friday caused the data to fall further, adding to the downward pressure. Early trading showed that the market fluctuated narrowly around $67,134.80 and $68,996.16, reflecting the continued fight for key levels.

Technical: MACD bearish divergence deepens, and negative energy bars indicate downward pressure. A break below key support levels could trigger a sudden drop, as seen on Friday. Reduced volume suggests consolidation rather than a decisive move.

Today's range: $66,461.02 - $68,996.16. The 3-day forecast range is $65,525.25 - $70,864.15. Narrowing volatility indicates the possibility of major fluctuations.

$67,134.80 does not currently hold any support attributes.
Daily indicators: 10% bullish, 90% bearish.
Long-short ratio: 1.91, slightly in favor of shorts.
Funding rate: 0.0106-0.012%, normal level.
Futures open interest: $341.7 billion, stable since Friday.
Greed index: 73, departure rate: 12%.

Overall, BTC faces downward pressure in the short term, and the range shrinks due to shrinking trading volume. Volatility may be large. The long-term trend is still bullish, but caution is needed in the short term. Consider risk management and position adjustment.

Macro: US core PCE in April was 2.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and 0.2% monthly (the lowest since December 2023), easing concerns about inflation. The September rate cut is expected to 46.4%. Closely monitor further macro developments.

May 30, 2024

Yesterday, BTC fell to the core support level of $67,143.91 and fell to as low as $67,124.65. Today, this level provides weak support and is a key battleground between bulls and bears. A break below this level could trigger further downside movement.

Net outflow of $7.9 billion yesterday. The core support level of $67,143.91 was held, but the data continues to weaken. The technical picture currently shows MACD divergence, indicating that if $67,143.91 is broken, further declines are possible.

Early trading data shows that BTC price may fluctuate between $67,143.91 and $69,557.29. In order to ease the MACD divergence, BTC needs to reclaim and maintain above $68,600 for 24 hours. Failure to do so and falling below $67,143.91 could result in a sharp correction.

Core support at $67,143.91 is a key short-term battleground
The long/short ratio is 2.11, indicating a strong bearish bias
The funding rate is 0.0055-0.0198%, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment
Futures open interest totals $347.9 billion
The Greed Index is 73, with a 12% departure rate

Overall, BTC's drop to $67,143.91 weakens its technical stance and confirms the MACD divergence. Watch out for a break below this level, which could trigger a sharp correction. The long-term bullish trend remains, but short-term risks are higher. Consider reducing positions to manage risk.

On the macro front, the Fed's Beige Book shows modest price increases and continued economic expansion, but corporate pessimism is increasing. Market confidence in a September rate cut is stable at around 50% (52.5% today). Stay tuned for more insights from macro data.

May 29, 2024

Yesterday, the market reacted negatively to the large amount of BTC transferred from Mt.Gox, triggering concerns and selling pressure. BTC fell to $67,277.91, holding the core support level of $67,390.29, and technical indicators showed high pressure.

Net outflows of about $11.23 billion yesterday. The price rebounded to the previous support level near $68,334.41, but it is still controversial. The core support level weakened slightly, and the overall data showed a bearish trend shift.

Technical analysis shows that MACD divergence is about to appear. If BTC falls to the $67,390.29 area and fails to recover above $68,334.41, bearish pressure may increase, forming a MACD divergence tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

Key support $67,143.91.
10% of the daily indicators are bullish and 90% are bearish.
The long-short ratio is 1.73, which is slightly bearish.
Funding rates are 0.01-0.049%, showing high bullish sentiment.
Futures open interest totals $347.8 billion, up 0.06% from yesterday.
Greed index is 72, with a turnover rate of 17%.

Overall, BTC is under pressure due to concerns about the trend of Mt.Gox BTC and the upcoming MACD divergence. Short-term uncertainty is high, so cautious trading is recommended. The long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term technicals suggest a possible pullback.

On the macro side, Fed officials including Kashkari hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes, but still expect a rate cut in 2024. ECB officials expect 2-3 rate cuts in 2024. Please pay attention to macro data and central bank statements for more insights.

May 28, 2024

BTC fluctuated around $68,651 before 22:00 yesterday, rebounded to $70,687 and then fell back. It is currently testing stability at the high end of the range, supported by the core fund flow.

Net inflow of $7.96 billion yesterday. BTC fluctuated around $68,651 and closed above this level, trying to establish it as a weak support level of $68,334.41. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly between $68,334.41 and $70,305.61 today, with a bullish bias.

If BTC falls below $68,334.41, it may retest the core support area. If it continues to trade above $70,305.61 for 4-8 hours, it may push the price up, with resistance at $72,446.30. The MACD signal shows a potential bearish divergence, but it has not yet been confirmed.

The key support level is $67,390.29.
Daily statistics: 55% bullish, 45% bearish.
The long-short ratio is 1.38, with a slight bullish bias.
The funding rate is 0.01-0.044%, showing high bullish sentiment.
The total futures open interest is $347.1 billion, up 1.62% from yesterday.
The greed index is 72, with a 12% departure rate

Overall, BTC has moved its range up and established weak support around $68,334.41 with a bullish bias. Watch for potential MACD divergences. The long-term trend remains bullish, but manage positions carefully.

On the macro front, there were few data and important announcements released yesterday. FOMC members will speak this week, and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released on Friday, measured by PCE. The market expects the data to remain consistent with the previous value. Keep an eye on these developments.

May 27, 2024

BTC fluctuated around $68,600 (now $68,651) over the weekend. After a brief breakout on Sunday, the price has returned to this key level. Today, it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range between $69,844.91 and $67,285.40.

Net inflows of about $9.63 billion were recorded from Friday to Sunday. BTC fluctuated around $68,600, briefly breaking out on ETF options news, but returned to this level today. It remains a key battleground with a slight bullish bias above the core support level.

Technicals show that a MACD daily bearish divergence may form. While not yet confirmed, this could signal the risk of a small rebound or stagnation followed by a price correction. Stay cautious!

Key support is at $67,285.40.
55% of daily indicators are bullish, 45% are bearish.
Funding rate is 0.006-0.0144%, showing normalized bullish sentiment.
Futures open interest totaled $341.6 billion, unchanged from last Friday.
The Greed Index was 74, with a turnover rate of 14%.
Overall, BTC continues to fluctuate around $68,651, with a slight bullish bias. Watch out for potential MACD divergences and market reactions. The long-term trend remains bullish, but be cautious and manage positions wisely.
In terms of macro, the US 1-year inflation expectations fell to 3.3% in May, and expectations for a rate cut in September rose to 50.2%. Fed officials remain cautious, with Waller emphasizing that the neutral interest rate may face upward pressure.

May 23, 2024

Yesterday’s data and expectations for the SEC’s decision on the ETH spot ETF point to volatility. This resulted in significant swings and price spikes, especially for ETH.

Yesterday there was a net outflow of US$13.87 billion. Both BTC and ETH experienced fluctuations, with ETH showing a significant increase. Early data shows BTC is in a minor correction and stabilization phase. If BTC can sustain above $68,600 within 6-12 hours, the bullish trend may resume.

ETH is likely to continue its bullish trend with the approval of a spot ETF, although there is room for volatility in both assets. The SEC's delayed announcement created uncertainty in the market, causing prices to surge.

The SEC has approved Form 19b-4 for multiple ETH spot ETFs. However, trading cannot begin until the S-1 registration statement becomes effective. This mixed outcome (approval but not immediate trading) partly explains ETH’s stronger performance relative to BTC.

Funding flow support: $68,600, core area: $66,373.09
Daily Technical Data: 20% Bullish, 80% Bearish
Long/Short Ratio: 1.88 (Bearish)
Funding rate: 0.0095~0.0347%
Bullish sentiment remains above average
Total contract value: US$340.6 billion (-2.43%)
Greed index: 74
Turnover: 14%

Yesterday’s volatility was driven by ETH spot ETF news, confirming that the market is predominantly bullish. BTC needs to break above $68,600 to get back into the bullish trend. The long-term outlook remains positive, with no immediate buying opportunities.

Macroeconomic background: The U.S. PMI in May exceeded expectations, indicating an acceleration in business activity and potential inflation risks. This affected interest rate cut expectations, which shifted from September to December.

The approval of the ETH spot ETF marks significant progress, but the process is not yet complete and further steps will need to be taken before trading can begin. This ongoing development has implications for both ETH and BTC.

May 22, 2024

Yesterday, BTC and ETH diverged. BTC failed to stabilize and adjusted to $69413.07, reaching a low of $69162.94. Today's support level is shifting to $69031.98, and the overall trend is still dominated by fluctuations.

Yesterday, there was a net outflow of $16.81 billion. Although the decline was not large, the price and trading volume were large, and the outflow was almost the same as the inflow the day before. BTC tried to stabilize, but failed to catch up with ETH, breaking through $70495.27 and adjusting to $69413.07.

Despite the failure to stabilize, BTC is still in a bullish shock. The price has now rebounded above $70,000. Today's key support level is $69,031.98 to $68,544.98. The price may fluctuate between this area and $71,016.08

If BTC is able to sustain $70,495.27 for 4-8 hours, the target price of $71,016.08 may be reached. A breakout of this minor resistance may lead the price to $72,860.67 to $73,320.85. However, multiple breaks below $69,031.98 to $68,544.98 may shift the trend to a bearish swing.

Funding support: $68,544.98~$65,844.59
Daily: 90% bullish, 10% bearish
Long/short ratio: 1.19 (slightly bullish)
Funding rate: 0.01~0.0213%
Bullish sentiment is strong but slightly weakened
Total contract amount: $350.9 billion (+0.92%)
Greed index: 76
Turnover: 25%

BTC failed to stabilize and made a small adjustment. The previous data showed a small bull-short tug-of-war. The bulls tried to regain the stability point, while the bears pushed towards the fund flow point. The volatility intensified and cautious trading was required.

Overall, BTC is still in a long-term bullish trend. There is no low entry opportunity in the short term. Macro data needs to be continuously observed, positions are cautious, and long-term strategies are still mainly buying on dips.

Macroeconomic background: Several Fed officials issued cautious statements, indicating further observation of monthly data. Fed officials hinted that interest rates may be cut in the fourth quarter.

May 21, 2024

Yesterday's analysis mentioned the widening range and the possible boost from the ETH spot ETF decision. The impact of ETH came earlier than expected. At about 3-4 a.m. (UTC+ 8), the SEC asked exchanges to speed up the update of the ETH spot ETF 19B-4 form.

The SEC's move was seen by the market as a positive signal, indicating that it was more open to crypto asset ETFs, driving ETH's early gains and also pushing BTC to break through key resistance levels, stimulating market bullish sentiment.

With a net inflow of about $17.65 billion yesterday, ETH significantly expanded its range before the ETF decision. After the SEC's advance request, ETH rose rapidly, breaking through ETH's short-term resistance (second resistance level of $3,875) and BTC, triggering a bull market.

Both ETH and BTC stabilized after the surge. BTC's support level is between $70,495.27 and $70,000. Prices may adjust to this area. If the support fails, BTC could drop to $69,413.07. If it stabilizes successfully before 8 am (UTC+8), BTC will target the $73,320.85 resistance level.

Above $73,320.85, there is no overhead pressure. A breakout above this level could trigger a short squeeze. The resistance levels beyond this level that I have derived based on my algorithm are estimates, but may not hold if the strong bull run continues.

Funding support: $68,033.57~$64,936.63, 100% bullish
Long/short ratio: 0.91 (longs dominate)
Global short-term long-short ratio: 51.8% long, 48.3% short
Funding rate: 0.01~0.0458%
Strong bullish sentiment
Total contract amount: 347.7 billion US dollars (+6.42%)
Greed index: 76
Turnover: 26%

Overall, BTC broke through key resistance, ETH spot ETF news came out, only one major resistance left, and it is expected to set a new high. Long-term bullish, low entry opportunities are rare. Macro data still needs to be observed, and positions are cautious.

Overall, BTC broke through key resistance, ETH spot ETF news came out, only one major resistance left, and it is expected to set a new high. Long-term bullish, low entry opportunities are rare. Macro data still needs to be observed, and positions are cautious.

May 17, 2024

Yesterday's data showed that the price attempted to break through $66,776.61. The high was $66,752.01 and fell back to support at $65,202.76. Early data showed less volatility around this area. 📊 #Bitcoin 

Today, the price is expected to fluctuate between $64,433.98 and $66,776.61, with $68,965.66 as the limit resistance. If it breaks through and holds, the next target may be $72,226.47.

Fund flow support: $63,241.64~$62,301.11
Daily K-line: 90% bullish, 10% bearish
Long/short ratio: 1.05 (longs dominate)
Global short-term long/short ratio: 49.2% vs 50.7%
Funding rate: -0.0065%~0.0069%
Contract total: 319.5 billion US dollars (-0.77%)
Greed index: 74

Overall, after the CPI decline and the expectation of interest rate cuts boosted BTC, the resistance level is still at $66776.61 and $68965.66. At this stage, it is oscillating between the support and resistance levels. The long-term trend is bullish and the possibility of a sharp decline is small.

Macroeconomic background: US initial jobless claims data is slightly positive for the US dollar and slightly negative for Bitcoin. The statement of Federal Reserve officials shows that the CPI in April is not enough to cut interest rates and maintain high interest rates. Future CPI data will be crucial.

May 16, 2024

Last night, the US April unadjusted CPI annual rate rose to 3.4% as expected, driving the expected rebound. The price reached $66,666 in the early trading and is currently constrained by around $66,776.61. The data turned bullish and the upward trend is obvious. 📈 #Bitcoin 

Net inflows of about $13.91 billion yesterday. The decline in various CPI data points strengthened the expectations of rate cuts and promoted the expected rebound. A large amount of capital inflows of about $62,300 strengthened the support. Short-term data is now bullish. 🚀 #CryptoTrading

Early data showed an attempt to break through $66,776.61, with the first support level at $65,202.76. The overall trend is bullish and the shock is expanding. The resistance level is at $68,965.66, limiting the upward trend, but if it breaks, the price may reach $72,226.47. 🌐 #BTCAnalysis

Additional data:

Capital flow support: $63,358.04-$62,068.80

Long/short ratio: 0.95 (favors longs)

Global short-term long/short ratio: 51.6% long, 48.4% short

Financing rate: 0.0023% - 0.0141%

Market sentiment: bullish

Greed index: 64

Turnover: 17%

Overall, CPI fell, expectations of interest rate cuts rose, the market was bullish, major funds re-entered the market, the short-term trend reversed, but the volatility remained, the long-term trend was still bullish, buying on dips was the main focus, and long positions were the main focus. #CryptoMarket

Macroeconomic background: The US CPI in April was 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, lower than 3.5% in March. The core CPI fell to 0.3%, the lowest level since December 2023. Retail sales were 0% in April, indicating weak consumption, which favors a rate cut. The odds of a rate cut in September are now over 53.5%, totaling 52 basis points.

May 15, 2024

Yesterday, BTC held above the flow and avoided falling below $60,000. Resistance at $63,832.81 kept the price in a narrow range. Today's data is weak, continuing the volatile trend. #Bitcoin 

Net outflow of $934 million yesterday. BTC was unable to break through the short-term resistance. Today, the resistance moved to $63,938.36. Only a breakout and stabilization above this level for more than 24 hours can strengthen the short-term performance. #CryptoTrading

The protective support level moved from $60,601 to $60,378.64, which is consistent with the $60,000 level. Today, there is a risk of testing and breaking this support level. If it breaks, the price may fall to $58,176.58 - $56,787.81. #BTCAnalysis

At 20:30 (UTC+ 8) tonight, the key data of US CPI and retail sales in April will be released. If CPI ≤ 3.4%, a rebound is expected. If the data is higher than 3.4%, a decline will occur. 📊#Economy#Crypto

Overall, BTC weakened today and is expected to fluctuate in the early trading. As the US CPI is released, the volatility will increase. The short-term trend is volatile, and the long-term trend is still bullish. Buy on dips and focus on long positions. #CryptoMarket

Additional data:

Capital flow resistance: $61,838-$62,880

Daily K-line: 50% bullish, 50% bearish

Long/short ratio: 1.92 (favors shorts)

Global short-term long/short ratio: 49.2% long, 50.8% short

Funding rate: -0.0061% to 0.01%

Greed index: 66

Turnover: 17%

May 14, 2024

BTC rebounded slightly yesterday, reaching a high of $63,450 and a low of $60,749.21, with a range of $63,132.84-$60,539. The data in the morning today improved slightly, indicating that the range of fluctuations is expected to continue to expand.

Yesterday, the net inflow was about $1.001 billion, and the data rebounded slightly. Subsequently, the trading volume increased, and the narrow range of fluctuations was bullish. Today's data is generally positive, and the support is effective upward.

The short-term resistance level is still $63,832.81-64,468.79. If it breaks through this level, the fluctuation range may be expanded to $65,669.63. If the trading volume continues to increase and tomorrow's CPI data is in line with or lower than expected, the price may rise to $66,811.07.

The support level of $60,601.93 continues to hold, and $61,859.19 will become an additional support level. Early data shows that there is no direct risk of falling below these levels. The long-term trend remains bullish and any short-term declines are viewed as corrections in the long-term uptrend.

Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson noted a slowdown in downward momentum in inflation, suggesting that tightening policy rates are appropriate. This cautious stance has not had a significant impact on expectations for a rate cut in September. Wednesday's CPI data is critical, with the market expecting a decline in CPI.

BTC's current rally partly reflects these expectations.