June 14, 2024

BTC reached a high of $68,449.30 yesterday, but failed to break through the capital flow resistance in the $68,768-68,882 range. The resistance has been updated to $68,522.22 today, which has put great pressure on the price.

Yesterday, the net outflow was about $987 million. Today's data continued to weaken. Short-term indicators show that the market has shifted from shock consolidation to shock adjustment.

Support levels: $65,675 and $65,259.

If it turns into resistance, it may fall further to the $63,100-61,684 area. $66,150 is the protective support of the key support area. If it falls below $66,150, it will be a downward exploration signal.

Resistance level: The capital flow resistance zone is at $68,522.22. BTC needs to break through and stay above this level for 24 hours to stabilize the trend. Indicators: Daily chart indicators show 0% bullish signals and 100% bearish signals.

The long-short ratio rose to 2.21, showing a clear bearish advantage.

Open interest: The total open interest of futures contracts is $34.82 billion, down 1.97% from the previous trading day.

Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 74, with a turnover rate of 15%.

Short-term: Unable to break through the capital flow resistance, followed by a pullback, and weak market data. This leads to a shock adjustment phase. If the key support level is broken, the risk of a bearish reversal increases.

Long-term: BTC continues to maintain a long-term bullish trend, but signs of a short-term correction are reappearing. Traders holding large positions can consider reducing their holdings and managing risks. Overall, it is recommended to maintain a controllable position.

The unexpected decline in the US Producer Price Index (USPPI) in May and the number of first-time unemployment claims exceeded expectations raised the implied probability of a rate cut in September to 61.1%.

However, these data are less influential than CPI, PCE and non-farm payrolls, so they may not have a significant impact on financial markets such as BTC. Further assessment will depend on the release of more key data.