The current cryptocurrency market has not entered a severe correction phase, but there is a high possibility of a trend reversal. Particularly, unless there is a significant surge by tomorrow morning, a bearish candlestick could form, indicating the need for cautious observation of the market in January.

One of the most concerning scenarios is that the cryptocurrency market, heavily influenced by the U.S. market, could follow its downward adjustment. Conversely, if a rally resumes, Ethereum is expected to show a more favorable upward momentum than Bitcoin.

Both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market appear to have reached a critical inflection point. The first half of next year is likely to be a pivotal period for determining the market’s direction. Given the high potential for significant volatility in either direction, close attention to market trends in the first half of the year is essential.

#2025Crypto

BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund has significantly increased its holdings in the Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT), reaffirming its strong position in the cryptocurrency investment market. In a recent report submitted to the SEC, BlackRock disclosed that it holds 430,770 shares of IBIT, valued at approximately $17 million. This represents a 117% increase compared to the end of July and a more than tenfold increase since the beginning of the year, highlighting BlackRock’s growing interest in the cryptocurrency market.

Although IBIT accounts for just 0.1% of the Global Allocation Fund’s portfolio, it has achieved remarkable success, ranking among the top 35 of over 3,900 ETFs worldwide in terms of asset size within just one year of its launch. Notably, IBIT recorded net inflows exceeding $37 billion, establishing a dominant position in the ETF market and significantly outperforming its competitor, Fidelity’s FBTC, which saw $11.8 billion in net inflows.

Currently, IBIT holds approximately $50 billion worth of Bitcoin, representing a substantial portion of the total $35.4 billion inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs. This underscores BlackRock’s strong belief in the growth potential of the Bitcoin ETF market and indicates the increasing role of cryptocurrencies in the global financial system.

BlackRock’s continued expansion in cryptocurrency investments sends a positive signal to the market, accelerating Bitcoin’s evolution from a mere asset to a critical pillar of the global financial framework

#BlackRock⁩

Japanese House of Councillors member Satoshi Hamada has proposed the introduction of a national Bitcoin reserve. He emphasized that Japan should follow the moves of other countries considering Bitcoin reserves.

Background of the Proposal

Hamada highlighted that countries like the United States, Russia, Brazil, and Poland are considering establishing Bitcoin reserves.
He noted that discussions around Bitcoin reserves have intensified as Bitcoin’s price surpasses $100,000.
Key Statements

Hamada stressed the need for Japan to evaluate whether part of its foreign exchange reserves should be converted into Bitcoin.
He mentioned that a national Bitcoin reserve could positively impact cryptocurrency investors and added, "If Bitcoin has a future, establishing a reserve could be advantageous."
Political Reactions

Despite being a member of a minority party with only two seats in the Japanese Parliament, Hamada's vision has gained support among cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, also supports cryptocurrencies and has pledged to reduce cryptocurrency taxes if re-elected.
Implications and Outlook

Hamada’s proposal opens the door for the Japanese government to consider Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
However, the government and Parliament’s stance on the matter remains unclear.
#JapanCrypto

Warren Buffett
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

Peter Lynch
"It's hard to win in the stock market without studying."

Ray Dalio
"Successful investing comes from knowledge and experience."

Investing is a way to grow wealth with relatively little effort. However, there are far more investors who don't make even that small effort.

With just a little effort, you can be much further ahead than other investors.
Investing requires knowledge and experience, and continuous learning and preparation. If you study and prepare just a little more, your chances of success in the investment market will increase significantly.

Liquidity is undoubtedly the most critical factor influencing asset markets. It acts as the lifeblood of the market, shaping investor sentiment and driving price movements. From a long-term cycle perspective, the global asset market has clearly entered a bullish phase.

The Flow of Global Liquidity
Currently, the global economy is in a phase of increased liquidity. Central banks worldwide are actively injecting liquidity to stimulate economic growth, which has had a positive impact on stock markets, cryptocurrency markets, and other asset classes. In an environment where liquidity is abundant, asset prices naturally tend to rise.

Challenges Surrounding the Market
Of course, there are significant hurdles that could disrupt this optimistic environment:

Economic Recession Concerns: Persistent worries about an economic slowdown remain a source of uncertainty for investors. Declining growth rates and weak economic indicators weigh on market confidence.
Overheating of the U.S. Stock Market: The sharp rise in stock prices has led to concerns of overheating, which could increase the risk of a market correction.
Inflation Risks Under the Trump Administration: Heightened concerns about inflation, fueled by fiscal policies, add to market volatility and raise questions about long-term stability.
Additionally, unforeseen variables could unexpectedly shift the market’s momentum.

Sustaining the Bullish Cycle
However, if these concerns do not materialize and fail to disrupt the current market sentiment, the ongoing bullish cycle is likely to persist for the foreseeable future. The robust global liquidity environment continues to serve as a strong foundation for asset markets, creating a favorable climate for investors.
Ultimately, the market is propelled forward by the powerful engine of liquidity. Rather than being swayed by short-term volatility, investors should focus on understanding the current bullish cycle and crafting strategies with a long-term perspective.
#crypto

The Relationship Between Inflation and Commodities: Possibility of Rekindling

Inflation remains one of the most significant topics in today’s economy. While current figures appear somewhat optimistic, concerns about the potential resurgence of inflation persist among economic experts.

One particularly noteworthy indicator is the ratio between commodity prices and the Dow Jones Index. A low ratio indicates that commodities are significantly undervalued in the market. Historically, the last time commodities were this inexpensive was before the 1970s commodity supercycle, which coincided with the onset of inflationary pressures in the United States.

Assuming history repeats itself, there is a possibility that skyrocketing commodity prices could rekindle inflation. Key factors that could trigger this include war, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.

Currently, trade wars appear to be the most likely catalyst. In a global economy, intensified trade disputes could disrupt commodity supplies, leading to significant price surges and, ultimately, reigniting inflationary pressures.

#CryptoNewss

Fed Chair Powell States Bitcoin Reserve Policy Is Not on the Agenda

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently addressed questions about the Fed’s stance on holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. His comments gained attention, especially in light of President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promise to include Bitcoin in the country’s strategic reserves.

Key Points from Powell
Legal Restrictions: Powell clarified that the Federal Reserve is not legally allowed to hold Bitcoin under the Federal Reserve Act, emphasizing the strict limitations on asset ownership.
No Plans for Change: He stated that the Fed has no intention of seeking legislative amendments to enable Bitcoin ownership.
Congress’s Decision: Powell noted that any decisions on this matter rest with Congress, distancing the Fed from proactive involvement.
Implications and Outlook
While Powell reinforced the Fed’s neutral stance, Trump’s pledge to strategically hold Bitcoin may lead to policy conflicts between the White House and the central bank. If legislative changes are pursued, debates over Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset could shape future financial policies in the U.S.
#PowellSpeech

Grayscale's outlook on cryptocurrency market cycles has become a frequently discussed topic in the market recently.

To put it simply, cryptocurrency market cycles are undergoing changes. In the past, these cycles were characterized by short and explosive growth. However, as the cycles repeat over time, the growth momentum tends to decrease, while the duration of the upward trend extends.

Based on this analysis, it suggests that the cryptocurrency market's bullish cycle could potentially continue into 2025.

While this is just a reference point and not an absolute prediction, it offers an interesting perspective for long-term investors to consider.
#CryptoNewss

The end of a cryptocurrency market rally is typically marked by long-term holders transferring their assets to short-term holders. This phenomenon has been a recurring pattern in previous market cycles and is often interpreted as a signal of market overheating and peak enthusiasm.

Analyzing the current situation, the selling activity of long-term holders remains relatively weak compared to past levels. This suggests that there is still room for the market to continue its upward momentum. However, it’s important to note that as cycles progress, the scale of funds transferred from long-term investors to short-term investors has been gradually declining.

This shift indicates a structural change in the market. Whereas large-scale fund movements used to drive previous rallies, the increasing number of investors with strong conviction in Bitcoin and other key assets is now leading to a more gradual accumulation trend. Long-term holders are beginning to see Bitcoin not just as a short-term profit vehicle but as "digital gold" — a safe haven asset and a reliable store of value.

Ultimately, this evolution should be interpreted as a trend-driven rather than a purely horizontal market movement. In the past, the market was primarily fueled by short-term gains, but now we are entering a more mature phase, where investor psychology and strategies are evolving.

As trust and confidence in Bitcoin continue to expand among a broader audience, the proportion of investors holding their assets for longer periods will likely increase. This shift may lead to reduced volatility compared to previous cycles but could also extend the duration and depth of both upward and downward price movements.

In conclusion, the current cryptocurrency market is undergoing a structural transformation that distinguishes it from previous cycles. This maturation brings new opportunities for investors but also requires more strategic and long-term approaches to market participation.
#altsesaon

Ukraine to Legalize Cryptocurrency by 2025 Under Strict Regulations, with a Mysterious Ripple Transfer

Ukraine plans to legalize cryptocurrency by early 2025, with the bill being spearheaded by Danylo Hetmantsev, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada's Tax Committee. However, tax exemptions will not be included in the proposed legislation.

The draft law, currently under review, is expected to be finalized by early 2025 in collaboration with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The primary focus of the bill is to regulate digital assets while ensuring proper financial oversight.

Ukraine's initiative is set to become a significant example of state-level regulation and legalization in the cryptocurrency market.

#CryptoNewss

Last night, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was announced. The result showed a 3% increase, exceeding the expected 2.6%, causing tension in the market. (However, the CME Fed Funds Futures market still anticipates a rate cut.

Additionally, initial jobless claims rose, which halted the downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a rise in yields by the end of the day.

Among the M7 companies, only Apple and Microsoft closed slightly higher, while the rest ended the day with declines.

The Dollar Index continued its rebound from a consolidation phase and closed at the 107 level.

Crude oil prices slightly declined after the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that even if OPEC+ delays production increases, the global oil market could face a daily oversupply of 1.4 million barrels next year. Despite this, oil prices remain at the $70 level.

Having navigated this week's inflation data releases, the market is now looking ahead to next week's FOMC meeting. Currently, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate cut, according to market expectations.
#PPI

Bitcoin attempted to bounce back near the convergence zone.

This was a phenomenon that occurred as the Coinbase premium surged.

This can be interpreted as a situation where it joined the stock market rally that relieved anxiety due to the CPI announcement.

Now that it is gradually running towards the end of the convergence zone, the possibility of showing direction is increasing.

Positive news continues to come out in the cryptocurrency market.

Recently, due to the sharp rise and fall, the number of open interest has been cleared a lot, and the stablecoin market cap has surpassed the all-time high of $200 billion.

#CPI_DATA

Microsoft ultimately decided not to include Bitcoin as an investment asset.

Since the market wasn’t driven by this anticipation, there hasn’t been significant selling pressure due to disappointment. However, the opportunity for positive volatility has been lost.

Bitcoin is now starting to deviate from its previous trend. In such situations, it usually either establishes a clear direction or fluctuates further, creating a sideways movement.

This week, Bitcoin has been absorbing liquidity from the cryptocurrency market again.

What’s important is not just the price but also observing the internal flow of funds within the cryptocurrency market. Currently, the trend of altcoins hasn’t completely broken down. However, if Bitcoin continues to absorb liquidity, the performance of individual altcoins could weaken.

This aspect requires continuous monitoring and careful attention.

#Microsoft

Tether has issued a total of 20 billion USDT since November 6.

Tether, as a company managing stablecoins, increases the supply of stablecoins when demand rises. This is a crucial indicator because it represents the most basic form of liquidity that can drive demand for cryptocurrencies. In fact, the supply of stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market is closely related to market uptrends.

However, there are cautionary points to consider. Based on historical data, an increase in the supply of stablecoins has no direct correlation with market downturns. In other words, even if the supply of stablecoins grows, it does not guarantee a price increase, and prices could potentially decline.

#CryptoNewss

The altcoin index has reached levels close to the peak of the previous cycle.

In the last cycle, the altcoin season lasted approximately 88 days. However, this time, only about five days have passed so far.

If the market follows a similar pattern to the past, it could be a favorable time to expect rotational pumping of altcoins from now on.

That said, the cryptocurrency market cycles are gradually changing over time. Therefore, there is also a strong possibility that we might see different movements compared to the past.

#altsesaon

Bitcoin Surpasses $100,000 for the First Time in History

Bitcoin has reached a historic milestone by surpassing $100,000 for the first time ever. This event has garnered significant attention from both the cryptocurrency market and the global financial world.

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price can be attributed to several factors

1. Increased Institutional Investment: Major financial institutions have been increasing their allocation to Bitcoin, boosting market confidence.
2. Growing Interest in Digital Assets: As a hedge against inflation and an alternative investment, demand for Bitcoin has skyrocketed.

This record-breaking price marks the beginning of a new era for cryptocurrencies. While experts see long-term potential for Bitcoin to generate even greater value, they caution investors about potential short-term volatility and advise careful decision-making.

The global cryptocurrency market now awaits to see how far it can grow with this new milestone as its foundation.

#BTC100K!

Tron (TRX) Breaks All-Time High, Showing Strong Uptrend

Tron (TRX) has surpassed its previous all-time high, breaking the $0.28 mark and entering a new phase of growth. This rally, which surpassed its previous peak of $0.22, has greatly rewarded TRX investors who endured a long period of stagnation at lower price levels.

According to Cryptopolitan on December 3 (local time), TRX, which has shown a gradual uptrend throughout 2024, has now established itself as a prominent altcoin in the cryptocurrency market. Especially as rallies in major altcoins like XRP have slowed down, TRX has surged almost vertically, experiencing an increase of over 16%.

#TRX✅

South Korea Declares Martial Law, Crypto Market Plunges with Kimchi Premium at -50%

The declaration of martial law in South Korea has sent shockwaves through the domestic cryptocurrency market. Coins listed on Korean exchanges have seen a sharp decline, with the Kimchi Premium temporarily dropping to -50%.

Amid this turmoil, South Korean investors are engaging in panic selling, leading to a massive outflow of sell orders. This reflects how deeply the political and economic instability in the country is affecting investor sentiment in the crypto market.

Currently, South Korea appears to be grappling with political and economic uncertainty, resulting in extreme confusion. The potential repercussions of this situation on the market remain uncertain.

While panic selling is causing immediate disruptions, the global market's reaction and South Korea's ability to regain political stability will be crucial in determining the longer-term effects of this crisis.

#KoreaCrypto

It’s an intriguing indicator.

While there are many economic indicators, tracking the flow of money often provides a more accurate sense of the market's direction.

This data compares the movements of the S&P 500 and gold prices, serving to distinguish between periods of economic recession and expansion. When this ratio exceeds 1, it signifies that gold’s growth rate has outpaced that of the S&P 500. Historically, whenever this phenomenon occurred, the asset market has invariably experienced a downturn.

Currently, this ratio is once again rising above 1, which suggests that caution is warranted regarding potential market shifts.

#S&P500

The current level of trading activity among retail investors suggests that market sentiment remains relatively stable. This indicates that investors are not in a state of irrational exuberance and are approaching the market cautiously.

For the cryptocurrency market to experience significant growth, strong buying pressure from retail investors will play a crucial role. However, their current cautious stance may also be a positive signal, as it reduces the risk of abrupt corrections caused by market overheating.

For the cryptocurrency market to grow further, the following conditions may need to be met:

1. Positive Market News:
Institutional support, regulatory easing, or technological advancements that enhance investor confidence.

2. Macroeconomic Stability:
Favorable economic conditions, such as monetary policy or interest rates, that support cryptocurrency markets.

3. Increased Long-Term Investment:
Greater interest from both retail and institutional investors for long-term gains.

If these factors create a more trustworthy and profitable outlook, retail investors’ buying pressure is likely to strengthen naturally.

#Crypto_Jobs