Bitcoin has approached $66,000, wiping out all of last week’s gains, with sentiment dampened as a large transfer of assets from wallets linked to the U.S. government sparked fears among traders of impending selling pressure. Bitcoin fell as much as 5% in the past 24 hours, recovering slightly as the U.S. Department of Justice moved $2 billion worth of bitcoin to two new wallets.

Tracking service Arkham estimates that at least one of the wallets is likely a custodial service. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $66,550, down 4.3% from 24 hours ago. The broader cryptocurrency market fell 3.5%, according to the CoinDesk 20 index.

Spot Ethereum ETFs saw negative net outflows in their first week as large outflows from the existing Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) overwhelmed interest in competing products. Comparable Bitcoin funds debuted in January and attracted $1 billion in net inflows in their first four days, though they also suffered large outflows from the previous existing Grayscale fund.

Overall, spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $340 million, with more than $1.5 billion of that coming from Grayscale Trust, according to Farside Investors. Ethereum outperformed the broader digital asset market after Monday’s decline. Ethereum was trading at $3,330, down 1.67% compared to the CD20’s 3.5%.

Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency pledge could mean that the near-term price of Bitcoin is tied to the expected outcome of the November presidential election, investment bank Jefferies said.

Trump has pledged to keep a strategic Bitcoin reserve and never sell government-seized Bitcoin (BTC), he said at the BTC 2024 event in Nashville. “His overtures to the industry could lead to the near-term price of Bitcoin being tied to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election,” Jefferies analysts Jonathan Peterson and Joe Dickstein wrote. Jefferies noted Trump’s promises to pick crypto-friendly regulators, form a presidential advisory council for the cryptocurrency industry, and make the U.S. “the crypto capital of the planet.”

Two black swans are coming: the Bank of Japan raises interest rates and reduces bond purchases

The Bank of Japan said it would reduce the amount of Japanese government bonds it buys in a predictable manner. "Price increases require attention, and the easing policy will be adjusted according to the realization of the outlook. The amount of Japanese government bond purchases will be announced quarterly, and the amount of Japanese government bond purchases will be reduced in a predictable manner."

The bank said it would conduct a mid-term review of bond purchases in June 2025. The bank plans to purchase 7.5 billion yen of Japanese government bonds twice a month from August to September, with a term of more than 25 years, compared with 5 billion to 10 billion yen twice a month previously.

"Core consumer price index inflation is expected to rise gradually, and the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to reduce the scale of bond purchases. If the outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise policy rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing."

The Bank of Japan said that the median forecast for the core consumer price index (CPI) in fiscal 2024 is 2.5%, and the forecast in April was 2.8%; the median forecast for the core CPI in fiscal 2025 is 1.9%, and the forecast in April was 1.9%; the median forecast for the core CPI in fiscal 2026 is 1.9%.

The median forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in fiscal 2024 is 1.0%, and the forecast in April was 0.8%; the median forecast for real GDP growth in fiscal 2025 is 1.0%, and the forecast in April was 1.0%; the median forecast for real GDP growth in fiscal 2026 is 1.0%.

Wednesday is a crucial day for the US dollar, with the focus on the FOMC interest rate decision and press conference.

Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, and the FOMC press conference has become the focus.

Fed Chairman Powell's stance on inflation, the labor market, and the timing of the Fed's rate cuts will be critical. Labor market concerns and declarations of victory in the inflation battle could foreshadow rate cuts in September and December.

A more dovish Fed rate path would support USD/JPY below 150, while inflation concerns could push USD/JPY above 155. Powell said in July that second-quarter inflation data strengthened confidence that inflation would return to the 2% target.

China's three major exchanges: Stop disclosing daily foreign capital flows on August 19

Starting from August 19, the three major exchanges in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hong Kong announced that they would no longer disclose the buying and selling transaction volume of foreign funds. This means that investors can only see the total transaction amount, including the total transaction amount of individual stocks on the day, the total number of transactions, the total transaction amount of ETFs, and the list of the top ten active securities and their total transaction amount.

This change means that investors will no longer be able to obtain the total amount of foreign capital on the day, as well as the net buying and selling data of the top ten active stocks. In addition, the total holdings of foreign funds for a single stock, which were originally updated daily, are now published once a quarter.

Although after the implementation of the new system, investors can still understand the flow of funds to the Chinese stock market through the quarterly report on financial assets held by overseas entities issued by the central bank, these data will lag by at least one month, and sometimes there will be some inexplicable delays.

In fact, as early as mid-May this year, the three major exchanges had stopped disclosing real-time data on foreign stock market transactions. At that time, they stated that during trading hours, the market would no longer provide real-time data on the buying, selling and total transaction volume of foreign investors in the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets. The real-time short-selling balance will only be displayed when the stock price falls below 300,000 shares; the real-time quota balance will only be displayed when the daily quota balance is less than 30%, and the status will be displayed as "available" at other times.

The official explained at the time that this was done to unify investors' investment behavior and ensure that everyone can "fairly obtain market information"

However, Stevan Tam, research director of Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong, expressed concerns about this. He believed that reducing data disclosure in the public market would reduce market transparency, which is not good for Chinese and foreign investors.

It looks like we may be in the middle of the fourth cryptocurrency bull market. According to past cyclical laws, a complete bull-bear cycle usually occurs every four years, with three years of bear market and the remaining year of bull market.

In this bull market year, the market tends to experience a slow wash and decline in the first eight months. Then, there will be a two-month period of rapid rise, and the last two months are the period when the market reaches its peak.

If we start counting from December 2023, this round of bull market has actually begun. So, according to this timeline, we are now in the middle of the bull market.

It is expected that this bull market may last for about six more months, and the real climax may come around October, and then continue until around May 2025.

Of course, these are conclusions based on the observation and analysis of past historical data, not absolute facts. The direction of the market is always difficult to predict.

The cryptocurrency market will not always develop in one direction, it will develop very quickly and cyclically. In order to eventually catch up with the value of the gold market, it must experience a rapid rise and fall process. This four-year cycle is an important feature of the cryptocurrency market, and real market explosions can often be completed in just a few months.

XRP price consolidates above key support

XRP price tried to break out of $0.6120 and $0.6150 on several occasions. However, the bulls failed to close above $0.6150. There was a bearish reaction and the price retested the $0.5950 support.

A low was formed at $0.5957 and the price is currently consolidating, just like Ethereum. A major bullish trend line has also formed with support at $0.5945 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The pair is currently trading below $0.6120 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

If there is a fresh rise, the price could face resistance near $0.6025 or at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the down move from the $0.6091 swing high to $0.5957 low.

The first major resistance is near the $0.6060 level, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $0.6091 high to $0.5957 low. The next key resistance could be at $0.6120. A clear break above the $0.6120 resistance could push the price towards the $0.6150 resistance level.

The next major resistance is near the $0.6200 level. If there are further gains, the price could drop towards the $0.6350 resistance level in the near term.

The situation of ETH is slightly different. Perhaps affected by the favorable landing of ETFs and Grayscale outflows, ETH's rise before BTC broke through 70,000 USDT was not ideal, but perhaps the market is looking forward to a potential inflow/outflow turning point, and ETH's pullback this time is not too obvious. As of 10:00, ETH was temporarily reported at 3299.2 USDT, and it still recorded a slight increase of 0.67% in 24 hours.

The trend of the altcoin market is relatively noteworthy. It has changed the previous practice of "altcoins do not move when BTC rises, and altcoins collapse when BTC falls". During this sharp correction of BTC, altcoins generally did not experience a large correction. The 24-hour decline of most currencies was smaller than that of BTC. Some altcoins such as PEPE, AAVE, and LDO even temporarily recorded positive values.

Alternative data shows that although the Fear and Greed Index is still in the "Greed" state today, the value has dropped from 74 to 67, and the decline will be significant.

In terms of derivatives data, Coinglass data shows that the entire network has been liquidated for $197 million in the past 24 hours, most of which are long orders, amounting to $140 million. In terms of currency, BTC liquidated $87.1446 million and ETH liquidated $51.5846 million.

Mt.Gox transferred 0.02 BTC this morning, possibly for transfer test

In addition, according to Arkham data, Mt.Gox transferred 0.02 BTC to an unknown address (1AdbX..) at about 7:30 this morning, possibly for transfer test (there have been many records before).

Although it is not sure what Mt.Gox's intention is, it may cause market panic again, and Bitcoin fell below $66,000 in a short time. Investors are advised to be careful of possible fluctuations in the near future.

BONK Price Prediction: Can It Overwhelm SHIB?

First, logically comparing, the monthly price predictions of Shiba Inu and BONK show a huge difference. BONK’s price is expected to rise by 223% in August 2024, while SHIB’s price is expected to fall by 3%.

According to our current Shiba Inu price prediction, Shiba Inu’s price could drop by -3.32% to $0.00001648 by August 28, 2024. According to our technical indicators, Shiba Inu’s price today is $0.00001664, with a 24-hour trading volume of $211.2 million, a market cap of $9.81 billion and a market dominance of 0.41%.

With a price reduction of -3.43% in the past 24 hours, the current sentiment is bearish, while the Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 67 (Greed). Shiba Inu has recorded 16/30 (53%) green days in the past 30 days with a price volatility of 6.03%.

Similarly, for BONK, I predict a significant price increase in August 2024.

Based on our current Bonk price prediction, the price of Bonk could increase by 226.99% to $0.00009158 by August 27, 2024.

According to our technical indicators, BONK is currently trading at $0.00002709 with a 24-hour trading volume of $176.14 million, a market cap of $1.82 billion and a market dominance of 0.08%, up a staggering 26275% since its launch.

Despite a -6.96% decrease in BONK price in the past 24 hours. The current market sentiment is neutral, while the Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 67 (Greed).

In the past 30 days, Bonk recorded 15/30 (50%) green trends, with a price volatility of 11.54%. In the past 1 month, the USD price of Bonk has increased by 21.26%.

The indicator shows that SHIB is being weakened by BONK, and it can be seen that BONK is about to surpass SHIB. However, the unpredictability of the industry can always overturn predictions, so users must be cautious when making important decisions.

BONK Price Prediction: Can It Overwhelm SHIB?

First, logically comparing, the monthly price predictions of Shiba Inu and BONK show a huge difference. BONK’s price is expected to rise by 223% in August 2024, while SHIB’s price is expected to fall by 3%.

According to our current Shiba Inu price prediction, Shiba Inu’s price could drop by -3.32% to $0.00001648 by August 28, 2024. According to our technical indicators, Shiba Inu’s price today is $0.00001664, with a 24-hour trading volume of $211.2 million, a market cap of $9.81 billion and a market dominance of 0.41%.

With a price reduction of -3.43% in the past 24 hours, the current sentiment is bearish, while the Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 67 (Greed). Shiba Inu has recorded 16/30 (53%) green days in the past 30 days with a price volatility of 6.03%.

Similarly, for BONK, I predict a significant price increase in August 2024.

Based on our current Bonk price prediction, the price of Bonk could increase by 226.99% to $0.00009158 by August 27, 2024.

According to our technical indicators, BONK is currently trading at $0.00002709 with a 24-hour trading volume of $176.14 million, a market cap of $1.82 billion and a market dominance of 0.08%, up a staggering 26275% since its launch.

Despite a -6.96% decrease in BONK price in the past 24 hours. The current market sentiment is neutral, while the Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 67 (Greed).

In the past 30 days, Bonk recorded 15/30 (50%) green trends, with a price volatility of 11.54%. In the past 1 month, the USD price of Bonk has increased by 21.26%.

The indicator shows that SHIB is being weakened by BONK, and it can be seen that BONK is about to surpass SHIB. However, the unpredictability of the industry can always overturn predictions, so users must be cautious when making important decisions.

BTC surges above $69,000, bulls return quickly? Can it hit new highs?

Bitcoin surged above $69,000, driven by strong technical indicators and bullish market sentiment.

Key support levels near $66,951 and $68,075 helped Bitcoin’s price stabilize above $69,000.

Investors showed confidence by withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges, indicating that they expect the price to continue to rise.

Bitcoin has just broken $69,000 and is still rising, a one-month high, showing a potential shift in market dynamics and gaining bullish momentum. This gives investors hope. At press time, the price of Bitcoin has risen to $69,405.

The 50-hour and 200-hour moving averages at $66,951 and $68,075, respectively, support this rally. These averages are key support levels, stabilizing the price above $69,000.

The Bollinger Bands show that the price is pushing the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions and also hinting at strong upward momentum.

In fact, the price of Bitcoin has been rising in recent weeks, returning to past highs that most investors have become accustomed to. However, just like most digital asset markets, the past week has been a bit quiet for the major cryptocurrency.

Interestingly, the latest on-chain insights suggest that the crypto market, especially the Bitcoin market, may not be quiet for too long.

BTC Technical Analysis and Key Levels

According to the technical analysis of experts, BTC is bullish on the daily timeframe and may hit the $72,000 mark, which is its next hurdle or we can say the upcoming resistance level.

Judging from the current market sentiment and the bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, BTC may easily break through this resistance level.

Despite the bullish market, according to price action and historical data, BTC has tried to break through the $72,000 mark five times since March 2024, but in fact he failed every time.

If BTC breaks above that level this time and forms a daily close above the $72,000 mark, we might see bullish momentum all the way up to $74,000 and beyond.

Dogecoin Market Watch: Is a rally still possible amid whale selling?

Regardless, the price has stalled over the past week and erased some of its earlier gains.
Nevertheless, it has maintained a bullish market structure on the 1-day chart. Things are not that simple and bulls face a major challenge.

The market structure remains bullish after a structural breakout earlier this month. The memecoin has not formed a lower low since then. The RSI is also above the neutral 50, albeit just barely.

Together, the two suggest that bulls still have a chance to push prices higher.

However, trading volumes have been low throughout July. Even when prices started to rise in the middle of the month, it was difficult to gain bullish confidence.

The mild rebound in OBV in July reflects this fact, while the past few days have resumed the downturn.

The $0.119-0.123 area is the biggest support area nearby, while $0.139-0.143 is the biggest resistance. A retest of the $0.12 support level seems possible, and given the bullish structure on the daily chart, there could be a buying opportunity.

Is Dogecoin Still Undervalued – Should You Buy It?

The average investment age continues to trend upward. This means that investments have become more stagnant, while old coins continue to stay in their wallets.

Generally speaking, a decline in the MDIA coincides with a strong uptrend, as we saw in late February.

The 90-day MVRV ratio shows that DOGE remains undervalued despite the recent rally. This is encouraging as it reduces the likelihood of a wave of selling by profit-takers.

People holding between 10 million and 1 billion DOGE tokens (blue and orange) accumulated DOGE tokens in early July. Soon after, they began selling, indicating a lack of confidence in the coin.

Whale selling coupled with a lack of volume means that the chances of a strong rebound are slim.

In this case, a pullback in Bitcoin [BTC] would have a greater impact on sentiment, especially since the BTC-DOGE correlation is at +0.95.

Bitcoin returned to $69,000 overnight, just one step away from its all-time high!

Recently, the cryptocurrency industry has seen continuous positive news, with Bitcoin spot and Ethereum spot ETFs being listed and traded one after another, and the Fed’s expectations for rate cuts becoming clearer. These are all long-term positives for the cryptocurrency industry.