At 9 o'clock last night, BTC briefly broke through $70,000, and then was hit hard. The four-hour line fell by 2.12%, and finally stabilized around $67,000. After BTC consolidated for several hours, at around 6 o'clock this morning, BTC ushered in another wave of decline, reaching a minimum of $65,862, and then hovered around $67,000 after stabilizing.
Affected by the performance of BTC, ETH also fell from above $3,500 to a low of $3,087, and has now rebounded to around $3,300. Altcoins generally fell. In the past 24 hours, the entire network had a liquidation of $168 million, and long orders had a liquidation of $144 million.
This month, after the negative news of Germany selling BTC was digested, the market began to rise dramatically due to Trump's assassination and the US election. From $58,000 in the middle of the month to around $68,000, the market fell back after Trump announced a very positive view of various types of Bitcoin for the election. But not long after, the interest rate market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time this year in September, and BTC spot ETF data continued to have a net inflow. Under the influence of a series of positive news, BTC then began to surge upward again. Just when BTC broke through $70,000 and was close to the historical high of $73,777 set in March, the market was frustrated again and trended downward. Why is it so difficult for BTC prices to set new highs?
The BTC contract position data of the entire network hit a new high, which is often the short-term high point of BTC
At 6 p.m. on July 29, according to Coinglass data, the total Bitcoin contract holdings reached $39.46 billion, setting a new record high. Just three hours later, BTC broke through $70,000 and began to fall sharply.
Contract data, to a certain extent, represents the market funds’ views on future market trends. Contract data hit a record high, indicating that the market is too consistent in the short term and is extremely optimistic about BTC’s short-term trend, and is constantly increasing leverage. Therefore, it often ushers in a correction to clean up chips and move forward lightly.
On March 4, March 13, March 29, and June 7, 2024, its BTC contract data all hit data highs on the same day. If you compare it with the BTC price on the same day, you can clearly see that it was at the price high.
Ethereum spot ETF net inflows are less than Grayscale outflows
After the BTC spot ETF was approved, the BTC price also experienced a period of decline. History also happened on Ethereum. Just when the market thought that its inflow data would be bleak due to the lack of support for staking income, it attracted $1.183 billion in capital inflows in its first week of launch.
However, Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) saw an outflow of $1.513 billion, which directly led to an overall net outflow of $338 million from its Ethereum ETF spot after this data was taken into account.
The price of ETH is also rising from $2,800 to $3,562, with a slight decline to around $3,300.
Mt.Gox compensation has started, huge selling pressure has caused market concerns
On July 24, Mt.Gox also transferred 61,558.9 BTC (about 3.894 billion U.S. dollars) to the trading platform for compensation distribution. The 51,342.8 BTC (3.218 billion U.S. dollars) that entered Bitbank, SBI VC Trade, and Kraken have completed the distribution of compensation to creditors.
Later that day, Bitstamp also began distributing 10,200 BTC, or about $676 million, to Mt.Gox creditors. The next day, some users claimed to have received their compensation.
Although most users who passively lock their positions will receive less coins, as the price of BTC has continued to soar over the past decade, there is a high probability that a considerable number of users will still choose to sell for profit after suddenly receiving such a huge compensation.
This morning, Mt.Gox transferred 0.02 BTC to a newly created address, which may be a transfer test, and will continue to pay compensation. It can be expected that before the compensation is completely completed, the market will still be negatively affected by its huge selling pressure.
Huge transfers from the U.S. Department of Justice address are a escrow or sell-off mystery
On July 28, Trump gave a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, saying that if elected president, the United States will not sell (100% retention) any Bitcoin and will use it as a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The BTC Trump referred to is the tens of thousands of BTC that the government confiscated from the Silk Road.
Recently, Arkham Intelligence’s blockchain data showed that a wallet marked as the US Government: Silk Road Justice Department transferred 29,800 BTC to a new address. Subsequently, the address forwarded 19,800 BTC and 10,000 BTC to two different addresses.
Arkham analysts predict that one of the transfers of 10,000 BTC worth $670 million was a deposit to an institutional custodian or service. James Seyffart, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, speculated that the transfer may be a wallet consolidation to hold custody of the seized Bitcoin.
So far, market participants have different opinions on whether these deposited BTC are being held in custody or sold, but the negative impact on the market is still in effect.
Future market trends
QCP Capital: The market needs a bigger catalyst for a major breakthrough
QCP Capital posted on its official channel that although the price of Bitcoin fluctuated during Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference, the market did not fluctuate as much as expected. The price of Bitcoin remained between $67,000 and $70,000, and volatility dropped significantly.
Trump's speech echoed industry expectations, but the market may need a bigger catalyst for a major breakthrough. This catalyst may come when the US election is approaching and the promises and policies are clearer. Despite Trump's optimistic remarks, Bitcoin failed to break through its all-time high, so Bitcoin may continue to trade in a range.
GSR Co-CEO: Altcoins will come back and come back strong
Rich Rosenblum, co-CEO and co-founder of crypto market maker GSR, posted on social media that every time Bitcoin rises, the altcoin angel on my shoulder shouts: Altcoin season is coming. The altcoin devil responded sarcastically: Not this time... Altcoins can't rise in this regulatory environment. The angel said: The team and technology are much better now, and altcoins will find a way to break through. This is the first time that the altcoin devil has remained silent.
Bitcoin’s market dominance has been rising throughout the month, and BTC may continue to lead the next phase of the bull cycle (or rather, SOL, the fastest horse). But this is the time I am most confident that altcoins will come back, and come back strong.
Real Vision founder: Bitcoin is about to break through the huge cup-handle pattern and enter the banana range
Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of Real Vision, a macro research firm, posted on social media that “Bitcoin is about to break through the huge cup-handle pattern and enter the banana range.”
Raoul Pal previously stated that the "banana range" is a concept that Arthur Hayes and others often talk about. This is a very cyclical stage when liquidity enters the market and the central bank needs to refinance all debts, using candy to please the people. At this time, cryptocurrencies usually rise vertically. This is a debt refinancing cycle driven by macroeconomic forces that affects all asset prices, but cryptocurrencies are particularly outstanding. So the easiest way is not to screw it up. Keep a core portfolio with most of the assets in major cryptocurrencies. If you can do it right in other assets, you can make a lot of money in that 10-20% of the portfolio, which has higher risks but greater returns.
BRN Chief Analyst: Bitcoin will usher in a strong rise and reach a new high
In addition to accumulating mining rewards, mining companies appear to be buying Bitcoin directly from the market to increase their reserves, said Valentin Fournier, chief analyst at digital asset research firm BRN. They triggered the Hash Ribbon signal, a long-term bullish indicator that shows the end of miner capitulation and an increase in processing power used to mine Bitcoin.
Fournier said the recent behavior of miners shows that they are confident in the long-term value of Bitcoin. Given this accumulation behavior, Fournier added that traders will be inclined to continue to invest in the top cryptocurrency, citing a series of strong catalysts. The lower PCE data released on Friday, Trump's speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, and the reduction of selling pressure from Mt. Gox and Grayscale ETFs all point to a strong rise in Bitcoin to new highs.
10x Research: The Fed rate decision on August 1 and the CPI report on August 14 will be crucial
10x Research posted on social media that based on historical data analysis, Bitcoin’s returns flattened in August and declined in September. However, tailwinds from U.S. interest rate policy, falling interest rates, and the election calendar are likely to cushion any downward pressure on the $1 billion token unlock in August. Bitcoin dominance is creating new highs this cycle and is having a significant impact.
It believes that Bitcoin is expected to eventually break new highs, but Bitcoin may need "macro" help. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on August 1 and the CPI report on August 14 will be crucial.
