#一起来跟单 I took a few days off during the National Day and there was no update. Let’s continue now. A few days ago, I talked about how to judge the trend, how to escape from the top, how to do technical analysis, etc. In fact, what I mentioned before, if you have high understanding and are willing to study hard, you should be able to learn it quickly. The real difficulty is how to overcome human nature, maintain rationality, manage positions and maintain a good mentality. The reason why we talk about the two together is because they are inseparable. When your position is too large and you face huge floating losses, and if you are still facing huge life pressure at this time, your mentality will definitely change. There are actually two aspects to controlling positions. One is to control the ratio of on- and off-site funds, and the other is how to allocate on-site funds. In fact, within the scope of my knowledge, I think it is more important to control the ratio of funds on and off the market; because if the ratio of funds on and off the market is well controlled, even if you lose money on the market, you still have a chance to turn around. First, let’s talk about how to control the ratio of funds on and off the market. In fact, this thing varies from person to person. The only principle is to let yourself move forward lightly. For example, A and B both have 1 million, and A’s loss acceptance level is 50%, then A can take it. 500,000 is invested in the market; B's loss acceptance level is 10%, then B can only invest 100,000 in the market. Maybe it’s easy for me to say it, but it’s not easy to do it, because this is the process of fighting human greed, because people tend to only remember how much I can earn if I win, and often ignore the risks. Maybe many people say that the investment capital is too small and it is difficult to make money. Just imagine, you can't make money with small capital. Why can you make money with big capital? The pressure faced by large fund operations is often many times that of small funds (small funds and large funds also vary from person to person). Therefore, you should be able to understand why your 1 wu is completely different from other people's 1 wu operation difficulty. It is 100% for you and 1% for others. The pressure faced by the two cannot be compared. The second is the allocation of on-site funds. In fact, once you have done a good job of allocating the ratio of on-site and off-site funds, your on-site position management should be very simple. On-site position management is the risk matrix method. For high certainty and high Targets with high certainty and low growth should be heavily stocked. Targets with high certainty and low growth and low certainty and high growth should be lightly held. Don't participate in bids with low certainty and low growth.How to use the indicator system and logical system to judge the position of this indicator in the risk matrix requires more thinking and long-term training. #注意资金安全

Slowly and leisurely wrote 5 articles, which mainly include the indicators for judging the bull market and how to use these indicators for analysis. In 2020-2021, many people made a lot of money, but since the bear market, many people have withdrawn sharply and even went into debt because they believed in the eternal bull market. Today I will share with you how to escape from the top. If you want to escape from the top, you must understand the nature of this market. The nature of this market that I understand is the question of where does the money come from? Only by understanding this problem can you change from a leek to a sickle. To escape from the top, you must understand what escape from the top is? According to my understanding, the top and bottom are ranges, not specific prices. Don't try to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point; therefore, the so-called top escape means selling when it is close to the top. So how to escape from the top? There are two main ways to escape from the top, one is active escape from the top and passive escape from the top; active escape from the top indicators mainly include emotions; passive escape from the top indicators are nothing more than liquidity, technical indicators, cycles, K-line acceleration and contract positions. First, let’s talk about the active escape from the top indicator sentiment. The market itself cannot produce value. All value comes from the transfer of money, so if someone makes money, someone must lose money; according to the up and down cycle, if it rises for a period of time, the high sentiment will The point is basically the top of the market; judging the sentiment of retail investors and escaping from the top is the only way to sell at the highest point, but it is also possible to sell out. There are many passive top escape indicators. The advantage of passive top escape is that we may gain slightly higher profits. However, passive top escape indicators need to wait for the market's reaction and are slightly lagging behind active top escape indicators. The first is liquidity. If market liquidity begins to decline and the main counterfeiters frequently ship goods, it will basically be the top of the range. The second is technical indicators, which still use morphological trends, volume and price, and support levels to judge. The third is the K-line acceleration and contract positions. If the 4h K or daily K shows a negative rise, then there is a high probability that it will continue to rise at this time; if the K-line accelerates the market pull at the 5-minute/15-minute level, then it may be close to the top at this time. , if the contract position also happens to be high at this time, you should be careful. The fourth is the cycle, if it rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. Regardless of whether it is an active escape from the top indicator or a passive escape from the top indicator, once we sell, don’t just watch the price go up and enter the market with a second heavy position;For me, I usually operate like this, sell most of the shares when sentiment is high, and leave a small part to escape from the top using passive indicators. Next time I will share with you how to manage positions.

The importance and role of liquidity have been discussed above. For a single target, good liquidity is the prerequisite for technical analysis. Technical analysis that does not talk about liquidity is a rogue.

Technical analysis runs through the entire process of our trading, from opening a position to escaping from the top. Technical analysis is inseparable from it; usually, the results of technical analysis will be earlier than the macro level; at present, the few principles I have summarized are that external benefits / In the case of multiple negative overlays, technical analysis shall prevail and other news shall be ignored; if technical analysis is inconsistent with other judgment indicators such as macro and liquidity, wait and see cautiously or build a small position; if technical analysis, liquidity and macro level are consistent, Then it is a heavy position stud; in addition, absolute respect for the technical level, technical analysis is never empty when it goes up, and it is never empty when technical analysis goes down.

As written above, we have written the logic of opening a position in the bull-bear transition and the basis for judging the bull market.

The most important sign to judge whether the current market is in a bull market is liquidity. Lack of liquidity will definitely not support a bull market.

Liquidity is not only the basis for judging a bull market, but also the basis for us to escape from the top. In the early stage of a bull market, liquidity problems can be solved by pulling the market; in the early to mid-term of a bear market, if there is a lack of liquidity, it is also a sign of our escape from the top (more details will be given later) ); it is also the premise of our technical analysis.

So what is liquidity? My understanding is that liquidity is the amount of liquid money, and money that is not liquid cannot be called liquidity; to a certain extent, the concept of liquidity includes depth, but liquidity cannot be expressed by depth. Under special circumstances, liquidity can be equated to depth. For example, the depth of the big pie and the second pie is basically equivalent to the quality of market liquidity. The depth of other copycats cannot represent liquidity; at the same time, the depth of a basket of copycats is also Can represent liquidity.

As mentioned above, you cannot buy the bottom in a bear market and hold any copycat for a long time. The best buying position should be in the early stage of a bull market.

So, how to judge the early stage of a bull market? Mainly through three aspects, one is liquidity, the other is technical analysis, and the third is overall perception.

1. Liquidity: Liquidity is not a leading indicator of the market. The problem of insufficient liquidity can be solved by pulling the market. Abundant market liquidity is the prerequisite for technical indicators to truly reflect the true situation of the market. For example, a native with a daily transaction volume of 50,000 U and a pie with a daily transaction volume of 500 million U, who can better reflect his true identity? The answer is self-evident. Sustained liquidity is a prerequisite for supporting a bull market.

Why do so many people go bankrupt in this industry? It’s because many people think it’s easy to make money in this industry, and they always think about freedom when they come to this industry. Many people have experienced a bullish and bearish cycle, and their income has changed from ten times plus to being heavily in debt. Why? It’s because many people simply don’t understand the underlying logic of this circle.

Many people say that there is no bonus period in this circle, but is there any? To be honest, no one can say for sure, because whether there will be a bonus period is itself an uncertain event and is affected by too many external factors. The biggest reason why there will be a violent bull market in 2020-2021 is the release of water by the Federal Reserve. The second reason is the impact of the new crown epidemic, which has led to the huge rise in the stock market and currency circle. Our in-depth analysis of the situation in 2020-2021 is nothing more than hot money and people entering this circle, which has made the pie 20 times +, and some copycats have a miracle of 1,000 times +.

In April this year, when many people were bullish, I was reminding everyone of the risks. Figure 1-4 showed that I was bullish in the short term because of the ETF issue. However, after the market broke through, it did not follow the ideal trend, so I was bearish again. .

Now when many people are bearish, I am here to replenish everyone’s confidence. The market is likely to bottom out in 1-2 months, and then follow the calf trend in January this year. This may be a relatively certain wave from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. rebound.

Before Mavericks comes, there should be no black swans, because the 10% decline some time ago, combined with the current market liquidity and sentiment, can be considered a black swan.