Why do many people lose everything after entering this circle? Because many people think it is easy to make money in this circle, and they always want freedom when they come to this circle. Many people have gone through a bull and bear cycle, and their income has gone from ten times to being heavily in debt. Why? Because many people do not fully understand the underlying logic of this circle.
Many people say that there is no bonus period in this circle, so is there one? To be honest, no one can say for sure, because whether there is a bonus period is an uncertain event in itself, which is interfered by too many external factors. The biggest reason for the violent bull market in 2020-2021 is the Fed's loosening of funds, followed by the impact of the new crown epidemic, which led to the stock market and the cryptocurrency circle rising sharply. Our in-depth analysis of the situation in 2020-2021 is nothing more than hot money and people entering this circle, which has made the big cake have a miracle of 20 times +, and some copycats have a miracle of 1000 times +.
So to sum up, in the long run, whether Bitcoin can have a dividend period depends on whether there is hot money and people flowing in. At present, Bitcoin faces a lot of supervision in many countries, which greatly increases the entry threshold and restricts the entry of some people. If Bitcoin can comply with the regulations in the future, it will be considered that there are people flowing in; another situation is that the world is turbulent, the hegemony of the US dollar is replaced, the US dollar collapses, and a large amount of safe-haven funds buy Bitcoin; of course, in the long run, the cycle is also important, but the cycle cannot affect whether Bitcoin has a dividend period.
In the short and medium term, this circle mainly looks at emotions, narratives, volume and price. There is no new narrative in the market now, and the sentiment is low, which leads to a decrease in the amount of money flowing in the market, but the market is actually not short of money. Once there is a new narrative in the market, the dog dealer can drive emotions by pulling the market and bring liquidity to the market, which can drive the market to rise further. When the dog dealer pulls the market, what indicator can best confirm whether it is a real pull or a fake pull? That is volume and price, because all the operation traces of the dog dealer will be reflected on the K-line. Of course, it is not enough to rely solely on volume and price to determine whether the dog dealer pulls the market. You have to pay attention to the cycle of accumulation-pulling-shipping-accumulation, as well as the resistance level determined by the transaction concentration area.
The reason is simple, so why do many people still fail to make money? It is because many people regard narrative as belief. Narrative is originally a tool used by dog dealers to sell goods, but retail investors regard it as a tool to achieve wealth freedom. The final outcome can be imagined.
