Today's share: A friend in the cryptocurrency market sent me his position information today, and he has already been trapped with a considerable amount of funds. He should have looked at the information I shared in my friend circle before (trial and error period). I also experienced a trial and error period in my previous trading: I later divided the trading process into two phases: one is to create a pivot point, and then leverage that pivot point using a small amount of money to give myself a trial and error period. Using the smallest resource investment to achieve this is, in fact, a methodology for doing various things: just like entrepreneurship, dividing the entire entrepreneurial process into a trial and error period from 0 to 1, a growth period from 1 to 10, and a maturity period from 10 to 100. In the early stages of entrepreneurship, using the lowest cost to validate the business loop. After that, resources are invested to scale up. Once the scale reaches a certain level, a moat is built to consolidate the achievements. In the development of Internet products, the concept of MVP (Minimum Viable Product) is also discussed, which emphasizes creating a product that can solve core needs at the lowest cost. First, validate whether there is market demand, and after verification, gradually improve the product. Sharing these ideas are mature methodologies applied in various industries. The application in our trading process is equally applicable; different trading stages come with different risks. Having such guiding principles or methodologies can help you avoid fatal risks in the trading process. I hope that if some friends have the fate to see my sharing and stick around until the end, they must understand one point, whether they are new to the market, starting a business, or engaging in financial trading: a person must first have the ability to earn small money from the market before investing resources to earn big money. Through the trial and error period, creating a pivot point with low cost and then investing resources to expand profits: this logic is not complicated, but many people have not personally experienced it, so they fail to recognize the importance of this matter. Just like many people know they need to improve their cognition, but would rather lose tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands in the market, without realizing they should set aside a portion of their funds for learning. Because entering the market has a characteristic: people always overestimate their abilities. Everyone knows that only less than 20% of people can make money in the market, but why do they still enter the market? It’s because they believe they can become part of that 20%. A direct sharing of practical knowledge from Ping Zhiyuan: I have been reading a book (The Distant Savior) these past two days, and the main character said a classic line that I want to share with everyone: You do not know you, so you are you; if you knew you, you would not be you.

Today, I want to share about the book I've been reading these past two days (The Black Swan). In this book, the author deeply analyzes the cognitive blind spots in our thinking, which are the traps that repeatedly cause us to stumble on the path to making money. The author points out that most people lose money in business or investments not because they aren't smart enough or because the market is too cruel, but because we overlook those unexpected black swan events. The purpose of writing this book is to help us identify these cognitive misunderstandings and avoid traps, which can greatly assist us in our investments, business dealings, career planning, and even in choosing a partner. Understanding the true rules of how the world operates is crucial. There is an example in the book: suppose you randomly find 1,000 people to measure their average weight, and then add a 400-pound person to this group. Will this significantly raise the average weight? Almost no effect, because weight doesn't deviate too far from the average; the heaviest person is only a few times heavier than the lightest. This illustrates the characteristics of the average world. However, if we measure the average wealth of 1,000 people and then add one rich individual, the situation changes completely; that person's wealth may be hundreds of times the total wealth of the 1,000 people combined. This is the manifestation of the extreme world, like income, financial investment returns, media traffic, company size, etc., all belong to the realm of the extreme world. The author emphasizes that most people are unaware of this and tend to view the extreme world with the rules of the average world, often leading them into misconceptions. In the average world, those with high incomes are usually the hardest workers, like delivery drivers or ride-hailing drivers; the more orders they take, the more they earn, which is achieved through diligence. However, in the extreme world, luck, cognition, and vision may be more important than hard work. A certain unknown person might suddenly become famous online with a song, and their worth could instantly multiply several hundred times. Many might feel that society is sick when they see that a small singer can earn so much more than a hardworking delivery driver; it's unfair. The author tells us that the extreme world is inherently unfair, but it is precisely because of these extreme black swan events that history moves forward. Society changes due to these seemingly outrageous extreme events, which are the true driving force behind human progress. Therefore, when we are making career plans, understanding these two operating principles of the world will help us choose a path that is more suitable for us. If we pursue stability and are willing to rely on time and effort to accumulate wealth, then choosing a career in the average world may be more suitable. Although it may not necessarily lead to great wealth, it can definitely provide a stable income for living. But if we want to take a risk and are capable of bearing high risks, we can try to seek opportunities in the extreme world, such as in entrepreneurship, financial investment, or the arts; although the probability of success is low, the potential returns can be significant once successful. However, one must understand: in the extreme world, success requires not only hard work but also the right timing, geographical advantage, and people; one needs to have keen insight to seize fleeting opportunities while also being mentally prepared to face failure. Sharing practical insights, Ping Zhiyuan.

Today I want to share with you a book I recently read: "The Black Swan" by Taleb. It not only discusses finance but also touches on various aspects of our lives. I recommend everyone to take a look: It integrates what I think are classic contents combined with some of my personal insights. Taleb states: In the past, some things have always been in effect until one day they suddenly stop working. So why can't induction and empiricism be trusted? Taleb says: Because we cannot conclude that all swans are white just because we have only seen white swans among all the samples we have encountered. Of course not, unless you have seen every swan in the world; otherwise, this conclusion does not hold. However, humanity seems to have a tendency to generalize from a small sample, often drawing universal conclusions based on limited experiences. For example, after getting to know a few friends from another region, it is easy to label all people from that area. Going to an unfamiliar city for two days makes one feel like they understand the entire city, and so on. This way of understanding leads to prejudice and erroneous judgments. Taleb reminds us that everyone's worldview is pieced together through repeated generalizations. It may be completely different from the real world, so we should never be overly confident and stubborn about our views. Of course, some may ask: Isn't everyone saying we should learn from those who have results? Since empiricism has limitations, do we still need to learn from the experiences of successful people? The author says: The answer is not necessarily, it depends on the field. Our world is divided into two parts: one is the average world, and the other is the extreme world. In the average world, the differences between two individuals are not significant. The conclusions drawn from a small sample and those derived from the overall sample will not differ greatly, so experience can be replicated. For example, a delivery person can learn work skills by studying the top 10 local delivery drivers, and the result is similar to learning from all the experts nationwide. Therefore, learning from others' experiences in the average world has value. But if it’s an extreme world: for instance, in a financial market with severe income polarization, the entertainment industry, self-media, live streaming, or technology startups, then replicating others' successful experiences may not yield the same results. In these fields, luck and randomness play a crucial role. You can imitate others' methods but cannot replicate their luck and opportunities. On the contrary, in the extreme world, blindly learning from others’ successful experiences may lead to misjudgment and failure. Taleb points out: Humans have a tendency to rationalize their cognitive biases, finding reasonable explanations for them. When reality does not meet expectations, we often do not reflect on our thinking but look for various excuses. Therefore, a large part of our cognition and experience is a product of self-comfort. Let’s continue sharing valuable insights to make life better.

(Unification of Knowledge and Action) Understand Yourself and See the Market Clearly. I often encounter similar complaints from friends who start businesses and do transactions. They also know what to do, but there are always loopholes in the execution. I wonder if you have ever faced such a situation? Today, I will share these contents to talk about the unity of knowledge and action in response to this situation: understanding the execution of unity of knowledge and action will help people in two aspects. One is to understand yourself and the other is to see the market clearly. First of all, what does the term unity of knowledge and action mean? Different people have different interpretations of this term. Some people say that there is a gap between knowing and doing, and some people say that you should act in knowing and know in action. There are different angles and levels of understanding of a word. In fact, people's cognitive behavior has never been separated. Instead, it is highly unified. A person's behavior will reflect his true cognition of things, which is also reflected through behavior. In fact, it is what a person truly recognizes: for example, a friend of yours tells you: He thinks that the body is the capital of revolution, but he doesn't see this person exercising, doesn't pay attention to diet, and has an irregular work and rest schedule. His explanation is that he is too busy and has no time. He is very tired after work and needs to rest. If you observe, does he really think that the body is the capital of revolution? Do you put physical health in a very important position in your life? Perhaps you have to wait until you get a serious illness before you can realize how important it is to have a good body. Then you will pay attention to your diet and start exercising for a healthy body. Only when you start to invest in a healthy body can you truly realize the importance of physical health. To understand this, go back to your own behavior: when you have a trading plan but you are not able to execute it well, essentially, your poor execution behavior shows that you don’t believe that your trading plan can make money. Or such a plan has no profitable results in the past, which can support you to believe that it can help you make money. When a person does not set a stop loss for trading, and loses a large position after trading, he regrets it, essentially, he does not realize the necessity of stop loss and the existence of trading risks. He just thinks that a stop loss should be set and heavy positions cannot be held, but he does not regard it as the bottom line of trading.Just like the example above, does he really realize that health is the capital of revolution? It is unknown. Ping Zhiyuan who keeps sharing practical information