Recently, I found that many people do not understand the leverage figures. I opened a 100x leverage figure, but the actual position is less than 1 times the full position. Some people think that a 100x leverage order means opening a 100x leverage. This is a wrong understanding, and it is easy to be deceived by the KOL who shouts orders. Because no matter whether the market is long or short, he can send you an order at any time, and the yield is more than ten times or dozens of times. I have seen a KOL open a position of less than 10U before, and the yield is more than ten times, but the yield is only 10U.
Take 100U margin as an example. If you set the leverage to 100X, then the funds you can call are 10,000. You have 100 margin, and the exchange "lends" you 9,900. If you go long or short, directly fill the position value of 10,000, then the fluctuation is about 0.7%, your position will be liquidated, 100 margin, the exchange gives the counterparty. But you can choose, with 10,000 available funds, you can open 1U (position value 1% of your position), or open 10U (position value 10% of your position), or open 100U (position value 100% of your position, that is, 1 times) or open 1000U (position value 1000% of your position, that is, 10 times)
So many KOLs who post orders to cut leeks can take out 100X leverage orders for you at any time, and the rate of return is x000%, hundreds or thousands of times, newbies are easily fooled. Except for BTC ETH, which meet the standards and cannot open 1U, many altcoins can open 1U positions, counting 400 spot pairs and 350 altcoins, each adjusts the leverage to 100X, and then each opens 1U, and the margin is put into 1000U, then basically there will be no liquidation, then the order of the latter one will be issued if it rises. #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 #比特币大会 Spread the basic knowledge to prevent more novices from being deceived.
Will there be another sharp drop after the production cut? Many people will miss the last bull market.
In 2022, when it plummeted to 15,000, many people were waiting for 8,000 and 10,000. In the middle of 2023, when it plummeted to 25,000, many people were waiting for 15,000 and 20,000. At the end of 2023, when it plummeted to 38,600, many people were waiting for 35,000 and 30,000. When it fell to 59,000 this time, some people might still wait for 55,000 and 40,000. The bull market is over halfway, and the market really doesn’t have many opportunities for everyone.
Before this production cut, even if I expected the market to fall, I made some risk hedging and controlled positions. But the reappearance of 312, after a month of continuous decline, it fell like this again, which was indeed beyond expectations. After all, it is a bull market now. But if you encounter opportunities like 413 and 414, you should still grab them. For people who have good position control, it is rare for a bull market to have such opportunities. I have already said this in my previous article: Shanzhai reappeared on March 12, the currency circle was bloodbathed again, and the market was about to change. But I feel that this opportunity is basically the same as the previous two times. There are still many people who will reverse the operation and make mistakes to cut losses. I dare to say that 90% of retail investors who enter this circle are impatient and are not prepared. I told many people before that they should control their positions, always have a clear cup mentality, have a Shanzhai profit-taking strategy, and dare to sell without fear of selling out. But in fact, from their attitude when chatting with me, I know that they will still fill their positions during the rise and are reluctant to sell at all, and then start panic cutting after the plunge, instead of buying at the bottom.
Opportunities, I rarely talk about them, this time is probably the third time in this round.
Still emphasize position management. Many people asked me when the previous surge, why did I not fill my positions even though I knew it was a bull market? Now I know that every time there is a plunge, I wake up from a dream. The first lesson that the uncle taught Abao was called "losing money": he bought electric vacuum stocks for 6,000 yuan and lost half of it in a week, and told him "the principle of the Empire State Building". Only when you climb high will you have the risk of diving. On the first and second floors, there is no need to consider such risks at all, so when the 413 and 414 crashes occurred, entering the market at this time would not kill you.
Today, the production cuts have ended, and it will be another 4 years before the next production cut. Before that, there will be at least 2 years of bear market. Time is really running out. There may not be another correction, but the opportunities will only get fewer and fewer. In the plunge a few days ago, some people thought that the bull market had ended and regarded 73,000 as the peak of this round of bull market. Is this reasonable? I think it's nonsense. First of all, after the production cut, data from all parties show that the mining cost of Bitcoin is between 40,000 and 50,000. This shutdown price determines that only when Bitcoin is maintained at 55,000 or even above 60,000 can miners have considerable profits. Secondly, is it reasonable to hype the slowdown of interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes? Is it possible? I think everything is possible, but one fact that cannot be changed is that the interest rate hike is nearing its end and the interest rate cut cycle is about to come. As long as the cycle is right, all kinds of delays, harsh words, and hawkishness, I think they are all strategies of some people, so the cycle is far from over. Furthermore, two things worth noting this week: the US stock market fell, but the market did not follow; the Bitcoin amplitude decreased, and the cottage began to suck blood (it can also be seen as a bottoming rebound) and rise. Jiaoliuqun+V: 2758624303 I think both of these points are favorable. From the perspective of the big cake, it is never too late to buy. From the perspective of the cottage, it is best for the big cake to go sideways, and the cottage will make up for the rise. On the 20th, this was the view.
So, will there be a sharp drop after the production cut? On the surface, both the 312 and this sharp drop have external causes, but in fact, they are more planned and premeditated by the dog dealers, the wash before the bull market, and the leverage removal action. Two months after BlackRock and other capitals entered the market, the bull market is over? No matter how sufficient the reason is, I will not believe it. I also remind everyone that before coming to the currency circle, you should be prepared to arm yourself and strengthen yourself. When it rises, don't forget the risks, and when it falls, don't be afraid that it may be an opportunity. #比特币减半 #大盘走势
25 years ago, what is worth buying series (fresh and hot)
The market has started to reverse recently, and Bitcoin has almost reached a new high. It is currently hovering around 72,000, ready to break through the previous high at any time. Once it breaks through 73,000 this time, it will be unimpeded, and 100,000 will not be a very distant thing. Combined with the general environment where money is being released all over the world, it is very easy for money to flow into the relatively easy-to-enter currency circle, so the overall market is definitely bullish. And when I was making a strategy for small currencies, I would compare these projects and found that they didn’t actually have big fluctuations, but Bitcoin represented that the overall market was indeed rising. Based on past experience, Bitcoin was the clarion call for every bull market, followed by Ethereum, and then the altcoins, so this wave may be the last chance to increase positions before the bull market.
Bitcoin breaks 71,000, the SOL sector is strong again; does ETH still have a chance?
The recent expectation is that Bitcoin will break past the previous high before the election at the beginning of next month; today, Bitcoin has already surpassed $71,000, making its fourth attempt at an all-time high. The market conditions of these days deviate from expectations; Bitcoin did not continue to decline after the technical indicators broke. Meanwhile, with Bitcoin rising before today, most altcoins, except for a few, are relatively sluggish, with some even breaking new lows in nearly a month. Regarding the situation with altcoins, I have thought about it. So in the last two articles, I reminded everyone: when there’s a pullback, first consider Bitcoin; be cautious with altcoins.
US Federal Agencies Allegedly Investigating Tether for Anti-Money Laundering, Dog Traders are Cheating Again.
The Bitcoin trend is quite normal. In recent days, even when encountering sudden situations, it quickly rebounds after a dip. In fact, the entire bull market trend is reasonable; the only unreasonable aspect is the altcoin trend, which can be discussed later regarding specific reasons. This correction did not reach the estimated $64,000-$65,000 from a couple of days ago, and it may be difficult to reverse back to that position. Time does not support a significant correction unless an accident occurs. Bitcoin rebounded twice today, breaking through 68,000; the performance of altcoins cannot be considered good overall, only stable. During the first breakthrough, there were slight increases, but when Bitcoin corrected, altcoins overreacted.
Why is Ethereum not rising? Why has ETH performed so poorly against BTC this year?
Recently, BTC has broken through the downward channel, rising from around 60k to 67-69k, and is about to break upward. However, ETH has been fluctuating sideways since August. The sideways movement is really extraordinary. At the end of August, I wrote an article on the life dilemma of Ethereum (ETH) on August 27, 2024, in which I put a chart of the exchange rate trend of ETH/BTC. At that time, it had fallen below the key psychological level of 0.05, but was still above 0.04. Now it has effectively fallen below 0.04 and has reached the "3-digit" level.
Since the end of 2022, which is the bottom of the most recent bear market that just passed, ETH/BTC has been falling all the way, from close to 0.08 (which is actually a performance close to the peak of the bull market at the end of 2021), to now below 0.04, almost halved.
The US Treasury Department's crackdown on Tether is just a means of false reality
Withered vines, old trees, crows, small bridge, flowing water, and people's homes. A thin horse rides on the ancient road in the west wind, the sun sets in the west, and a heartbroken man stands on the cliff. Perhaps the mood of this short order is a true reflection of the mood of most cryptocurrency holders right now. After waiting for so long for BTC to return to 69,000, altcoins are experiencing another mid-level wash-out. What’s even more shocking is that this wash-out is accompanied by sanctions against Tether by the U.S. Treasury Department. Speaking of USDT, it has a long history. After a major cleanup of domestic exchanges in 2017, transactions were switched from CNY to USDT. In the meantime, USDT has experienced fluctuations of more than 20% from a stable currency several times, but in the end they were all harmless and never collapsed.
Niu Niu Niu! Race with the dog village and defeat yourself!
The cryptocurrency world requires ideas and formulas. The more things you have in your mind, the smaller the chance of losing money and the easier it is to make money. In the final analysis, we cannot change the cryptocurrency world, but we can defeat ourselves. Today’s article has a lot of words, and it is also some operations and experiences that I think are somewhat useful. Over the years, I have paid a lot of tuition fees in the cryptocurrency circle, but I have gained more experience. Generally speaking, the gains outweigh the losses. Found a truth: Any investment must be a race against time, a battle of wits and courage with the dog dealer, a race to see who can run faster, and it must be relatively reasonable. However, not all assets need to run faster. There are very few investments that have a very long bull market cycle, which may even last for ten years or a hundred years. These assets will continue to appreciate, and will only wash the dishes intermittently, but the overall value will still be higher and higher.
When the big trend arrives, this position still has 10 times the space; it is just waiting for the big trend. As long as the momentum doesn't come, it won't reach. When it does arrive, it's not a problem for it to surge above 10, just like the past Litecoin. Many people are asking about it, so it's suggested to have a bit of patience. #FIL/USDT
Yuga Labs officially launched a blockchain based on Ethereum, called ApeChain. The company also launched ApeChain's cross-chain bridge Ape Portal, allowing users to easily realize cross-chain transactions. A piece of news caused the rise. To play this kind of currency, you must pay attention to a "way", which is very principled and involves many, many issues. If you want to participate, your first principle must be whether you can accept a 40% loss. You can choose 500 or 1000, at least you can afford to lose.
Many people still don't understand this, so let's get to the point: there will definitely be a follow-up, and the profit margin is 200%-300%. Therefore, the overall strategy is to accept a 40% loss as a prerequisite, and to withstand a 200%-300% profit as a later issue. A gentleman only makes a limited share of funds and never lets these affect the overall layout. #APE暴涨 #BTC要挑战7W大关了吗?
What else can stop BTC from rising? Love in late autumn
BTC has been rising and falling for 10,000 meters, and the frequency of oscillation has been accelerated in this range. This is obviously sweeping people out. (Have you heard in the past few days? Something is going to happen) There is nothing that can stop its mid-term upward movement, and this stage is before early winter.
Without analyzing from a big picture, only from a small perspective, all kinds of dealers can't hold their breath. There are new products on the market. The cake is so big, and it has been harvested by some small dealers and small project teams with the help of various storms. They can't stand it and have to make a game.
Just like what I said a few days ago about Musk's ecology, Musk has been eroding the currency circle and affecting the trend of other ecological trends in the currency circle. The main reason is that the operation method is too human. A slight movement will cause the market to follow suit, and the market will be strangled as soon as there is new goods.
The old currency Litecoin has an abnormal movement today. This abnormal movement will cause the price to surge to more than 80 at any time. This is the short-term fundamentals. From a long-term perspective, many people actually don’t see that this currency is not a currency that stays below 100, but has the potential to slide to 500, which means that it has the potential to increase by at least 4-5 times in the future. This is just a preliminary consideration.
Let’s talk about another god coin. I mentioned this currency when the price was 1.2, and many people may have overlooked it. From the current trend, the basic potential has been determined. This is a currency with the potential to become a double-digit currency. At worst, it has to become a 2-digit currency. You can observe it in the follow-up.
It is normal for the trend chart of sui to make a callback at any time, and it is also normal not to make a callback. More performance is to go up to 3 first and then drop to around 1.7. If it drops to 1.7 first, it will be a bad dish, and it will have to stay for a few months.
November was relatively friendly to the cryptocurrency community. Judging from the historical return rate of Bitcoin, the historical return rate in October has been relatively good in the past 11 years. The average return rate in November is the highest in the whole year, with an average of 46.81%. There were 7 years with positive returns and 4 years with negative returns.
From the perspective of interest rate cuts, there is an expected interest rate cut in November, and the latest forecast shows that the probability of a 25BP cut is 95.6%. In addition, regardless of whether the interest rate is lowered or not, the expectation is good. Before the interest rate is lowered, this expectation will always be positive. From the perspective of the election, the latest US polls show that Trump's approval rating has risen sharply recently, surpassing Harris by more than 10 points to 54.9%. A month or two ago, Harris was in the lead. Trump's election is a huge potential positive for cryptocurrencies.
What impact does the Trump family's cryptocurrency project have on the currency circle?
There is such a news: The Trump family's crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) will start live broadcast at 20:00 Beijing time on October 14, and will introduce: WLF team, consultants; exclusive insights of special guests; why WLF is subverting the industry; public details.
The Trump family's crypto project wlfi will start at 8 pm. To put it bluntly, it is not to enter this market to share a piece of the pie. From the side, it can be seen that the cryptocurrency market will be favored in the future. A former president of the United States has come in. It is conceivable that the future trend is unimaginable.
For this news, I am more curious about who the consultants of this team and the so-called special guests are (especially now that the market is gradually opening the bottom, it will enter the fish belly market at that time, and the market will be safe and rapid later). At this stage, we should pay more attention to good news.
For example, I just assume that the VIP is Trump's best friend Musk, then the result is that doge/shib and fake mask will see a wave of leap-forward increases, and today's people..., will the entire market directly see a wave of crazy general rises?
To analyze and think about something, we must look at the people it affects and the interests involved. We must wait until the market itself confirms this matter before signing it. Whether Trump can lead the United States to be more beautiful in the future is still an unknown, but the trend of encryption cannot be questioned.
A-shares set a new record of 90.038 billion yuan! Eastmoney's transaction broke the single-day transaction record of individual stocks that had been sealed for nearly 17 years. The previous record was 69.99 billion yuan set on November 5, 2007, the first day of China Petroleum's A-share listing. From this perspective, each of these people has to start with 10 years... #大A香还是大饼香
The tide of A shares recedes, and the tide of B circles begins to rise
Yesterday and today's highs and falls are too fierce. The T+1 system means that those who rushed to the high point yesterday can only run out in today's crash and fall. This is an immature market. No one knows what will happen after waiting for ten years. Such panic is spreading, making people confident in the current rise in the past few days. I have made it up. In the words of experts: "Calm down and don't affect your life."
From a rational point of view, the current market will not fall too much. If it really falls, it will be a shame.
Since entering this month, the overall economic situation has become more and more interesting. It has been said before that the logic of the A-share bull must be the appreciation of the RMB, for example, the appreciation to the range of 6.5-6.7, which is unrealistic in the short term. Capital chases the profit depression. Where there is an increase, hot money will rush in crazily, thus forming a globalized cycle. After the A-share recedes, the better trend is the currency circle.
The next step in the cryptocurrency world will be tomorrow. Even if it is later, it will not be a few weeks later. It has not fallen from this high-level fluctuation range, which means that it has not been thought of at all. It will only rise higher in the future.
The market itself is in a static state. If it does not move, there is nothing much to say. We can only wait! #大A香还是大饼香
The prices of cottage industries have started to rise in turn, and the market is benefiting everyone, and a bull market is beginning to emerge!
This round of market rebound is stronger than that in July and August. It should be that after two or three times of market washing, the banker is trying to break through. The retail investors who lie flat are often tortured by the market and have no patience. In the week following the rate cut, global financial changes were dramatic. Gold continued to hit new highs, reaching a historic high of 2,670 points. All three major U.S. stock indexes hit new highs. After the interest rate cut, Hong Kong stocks and A shares have closed with positive lines for many consecutive days, especially A shares, which have seen significant gains for two consecutive days. In short, as long as you have made arrangements some time before the interest rate cut, you will reap the benefits of the short-term interest rate cut.
Let's talk about Mars City Currently the market value is 40 million More than 3,000 holders Promoted by the Chinese community Still few holders But one thing is clear: the consensus on the bottom chips is strong this time Previously, domestic players were the main drivers, and pvp was particularly serious, without any big pattern. Mars City has a large turnover around the market value of 10 million. 30 million to 50 million also need to be fully changed, especially for those who have made a lot of profit in the early stage. If it breaks through 50 million, the meaning will be different. Cultural connotation: Musk moved the dream of Mars City, this goal is a bit grand, and the narrative is far-reaching. Another feature is that there are many players who miss neiro, similar to the inscriptions that miss ordi have sats and rats, which is the wealth effect on the chain. The first dragon of this feast is neiro, and the second dragon has not yet appeared. And the neiro trend has not ended, and there is still a lot of money in it. Whether Mars City can be a leader depends on you. The Chinese circle's big Kols have basically recognized this IP after looking around this time, except for a few fuds. After all, Neiro was slapped in the face last time, and this time he missed the opportunity and couldn't just fud casually, for fear of being slapped in the face again. At present, it is the trend, so go with the flow. In addition, if it is a golden dog, there must be big dealers and big funds entering the market. People at different stages make different money, and there is the world of diamond hands. But there are very few people who can hold the chips in the early stage. Basically, they sell at a loss and slap their thighs. #Terminus
With the interest rate cut imminent, will Bitcoin break 70,000 or return to 50,000?
A new agreement has been created, but it has been hyped up too much, to an uncanny degree. The coin circle is really fun. It is a blessing to play inscriptions and runes. Every once in a while, some coins are airdropped, including runes, pizza, and FB. Although the popularity is like flowing water, they are all picked up for free and the value is not low. It is not bad. In the past week, Bitcoin bottomed out and began to recover, returning to above 60,000 again today. ETF spot also began to be bought in large volumes today. Yesterday, Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of US$102 million, ARKB had a net inflow of US$99.3 million, and Bitwise's BITB had a net inflow of US$43.1 million.
Everyone is discussing that Ethereum is not okay... Brother, listen to the words of the receivers and the stackers. If you don't lose money, who will? In 2018, when Li Chaoren cleared out mainland real estate, countless retail investors also rushed out and said that he was mentally retarded. In 2023, when Buffett entered Japan to invest, this group of people came out again, mocking that it was useless. What's the result? People have eaten more salt than you and I have eaten rice. People are just old, not stupid. Public information is not credible. There are forces behind it. It's like at the end of 2020, there are still a lot of people calling you to buy a house... As for the current situation and existing problems of Ethereum, I have talked about it in previous articles. If you are interested, please take a look.
As for the remarks that Ethereum is not okay, it is not ruled out that friendly forces have hired people to hack, or that the dealer wants to absorb the chips at a low price and cheat you out of the chips in your hands, so be vigilant! Of course, it is more likely that they have drawn the conclusion after seeing its price keep falling. Then the question is, what about other coins? Look at how much it has fallen, and how many have run away? Now we can still say that Ethereum still surpasses 99% of the projects in the cryptocurrency circle. Please understand: I don’t mean to shout orders. At present, the cryptocurrency circle is still in its early stages, full of gambling and speculation, and there are various uncertainties in the projects, so DYOR, just buy what you approve of. Even if Ethereum doesn’t work, the shareholders behind it will also pull the market to sell. According to this logic, at least you won’t lose money in this bull market. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥
The most expensive scripture $BNSX gas once reached 900sats, and the total network casting fee exceeded 20 million US dollars. All major exchanges have completed listing. Now the market value is only 1.5 million. It has become CTO #bnsx #FB