Yesterday, it was said that the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated by only over 1,000 points within a day.

Breaking through the high of 70k is considered very abnormal.

After 4 AM, there was no substantial rise or fall. The short position given in the morning missed by a bit.

To explain my understanding, it seems like there is a surge in turnover rate with the short-term positions increasing in the range of 71-73k (for example, the long positions that started at 68k on Monday).

However, compared to the large holdings at the low points, there is no obvious exit phenomenon. This indicates that the market has a high level of unified recognition regarding the new highs of Bitcoin. Last night's ADP data showed a significant increase in employment population, which only caused short-term profit-takers at high positions to escape.

In the short term, there are no significant changes in daily, weekly, or monthly perspectives, so the bulls still hold the advantage. We do not know where the psychological defense line of the large number of bulls at the bottom lies, so the rise may come quickly due to data and news, while the drop will catch you off guard.

The key focus moving forward is on Friday's non-farm payroll data and whether the previous value of the non-farm data has been revised.

The days of bears being beaten down will last for quite a while, keep it up.

As for Ethereum, in such a sluggish state, it might take a while longer.

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September is very likely not the currently announced value

Now, Golden Finance has released news that the non-farm payroll data to be announced on October 4th has been revised to 143,000 (this news is yet to be verified)

If this Friday, the previous non-farm payroll data is revised to 143,000, it means we shorts have been played by this data for nearly a month, especially when it quickly rebounded after dropping below 59k on October 10th, we all thought the price would drop below 58k, which was an opportunity for a second entry

At that time, I also thought there was an opportunity to gradually go long at 57.5k, and then the market went all the way up, from 61k shorting to 70k, it was quite something, fortunately, I had a little something, I didn’t lose in this wave

This year is the year with the most revisions of non-farm payroll data, I don’t trade on data events, but I want to reference the data to make judgments after the data is announced

As a result, August saw a big revision, I shorted from 58k to 65k

September saw a small revision, I shorted from 60k to 66k

I don’t know if there will be a revision in October, but I shorted again from 61k to 70k

It’s all torment, it’s all torment, some slick friends I know are worse off, getting hit from both sides

In this game, who the hell is winning?

The price of Bitcoin breaking 7 is considered the first shot fired in Super Week

Yesterday, I mentioned that Bitcoin would hit a weekly high on Monday, which was a bit different from my expectation

Because I thought it wouldn't break 7, but it did, accompanied by a large number of short sellers temporarily surrendering

In the short term, the four-hour chart should repeatedly test the selling pressure above, while continuously oscillating at high levels to create new high spike patterns that promote the completion of a top divergence pattern

The daily chart has transitioned from a death cross to a golden cross and then back to a death cross, making the possibility of another Bitcoin decline still present. I believe this week to next week is a week of significant fluctuations, not a breakout for a new high bull market

This liquidity is temporarily increased by speculative funds due to data, elections, and monetary policy meetings, so in the current environment, it’s better to miss out than to go long. Contracts can still be traded, but it's better to avoid spot trading, lest you end up stuck at 69k like three years ago

Short sellers have not admitted defeat; they are just temporarily observing the changes

Starting from this week until the end of next week

The financial market will enter a super week of trading

Monthly closing (will play a role in connecting the past and future),

Non-farm payroll data report (with extremely high previous values and extremely low expected values, I personally believe that both the final expected value and the previous value will be corrected, which is not friendly for trading, as the referee steps on the field and blows the whistle)

Next week, the final showdown between Trump and Harris (this will cause huge fluctuations)

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early Friday morning (the familiar Powell's positioning strategy)

Here, the advice I can give everyone is to reduce trading frequency and try to wait until the super week is over before trading

For those with rich experience, be aware of risks, try to engage in lower-risk range trading, and avoid uncontrollable market movements caused by data

This weekend brought Bitcoin back to the awkward range of 68-67k

It should be a correction for Friday's inexplicable drop

What we can see now is that through two days of candlestick fluctuations, the lower band of the four-hour Bollinger Bands has been repaired upwards

As we approach the end of the month, we are more concerned about how long the 68-66 range can hold in the short term rather than if Bitcoin will test a new range

The weekly chart has formed a long lower shadow bearish candlestick, indicating that further decline is expected at the beginning of this week, with short-term pressure still at the 685 position

My understanding of the market is that at the beginning of the week, there will be a gradual decline, continuously creating higher points that move down within the 68-66 range, followed by a decisive drop from Wednesday to Thursday, ultimately leading to the monthly closing price returning to around 65k

The forecast for Friday's non-farm payroll data is likely to be revised, and this unreasonable large expectation for positive outcomes is not worth considering, especially with next week's election results

In the recent market, I believe it will first drop, then after the data and the election, it will pull back to around 68k. This is my assessment for this week.

After going short, I reviewed the whole round of market, but I still didn’t understand where I died.

Why did the decision go wrong? The employment population in the non-agricultural data increased significantly, and the core CPI data increased significantly, which did not support the price rise.

With such fluent data, the US stock market is creating a new historical high, and the big pancake completed a 4,000-point rebound in one day.

From the lowest of 59k on Friday to the highest of 66k now, I didn’t understand the logic of this round of increase. However, after the increase, the blowout of various good news told us that if we don’t get on the train, the big pancake will be 100,000. You missed the 60k big pancake, do you still want to miss the 65k big pancake? (I want to miss it)

This round of rise seems to be just a joint pull between big dealers. The unreasonable pull makes people's fomo emotions reach the peak

One of my more persistent views is that the ultimate purpose of capital entering the market is to withdraw. This round of rise occurred on the second or third day after the Silk Road cake was allowed to be sold

So is this round of pull-up for shipment? Will it be shipped immediately after the pull-up?

From the four-hour candlestick chart alone, the previous market trends were all very standard short-selling trends, including its break and then touch 63k again and fall back. As a result, it broke all the patterns with a one-hour big sun yesterday, which is quite rare

If something as stable as cake moves like a copycat, then there are really traps everywhere, and I can't escape. This is not my self-pity after my short surrender

I just think that looking back, it was stupid to stop loss yesterday. It's like playing cards. I have AA in my hand. Facing the single flower and single straight river bottom European hard, I can't find a reason to call. As a result, it's as uncomfortable as others showing mixed color 27. Being manipulated by others, I still have to say a nice hand to others.

Although the subsequent decline yesterday was quite powerful, it was not continued today

This wave of rebound is also swallowing up yesterday's gains as much as possible. The daily line finally touched the lower track of the Bollinger band and closed with a long cross Yin K

Today, the short-term pie is expected to test downward again, and it is more reasonable to complete the rebound repair at the weekend

In the next month, there is no data, and the impact of the data will be the key reference. The price is expected to oversell again, and the slow recovery after oversell is more in line with the operation status of the K line

It is not recommended to try more in the short term. It is better to consider it after next Monday. In the case of no continuity in prices, it is the best way to protect yourself to stop when you see a good profit.

After waiting for a day's market, the rebound of the pancake is still weak.

As I said yesterday, the price has already seen the truth yesterday. Now the shorts in the market are nine out of ten, and the remaining ones are still trapped.

Although they shout slogans, such as 58,000, 40,000, 30,000, and 20,000,

But at this position, the shorts are constantly withdrawing, and turning their guns to go long, and the longs are covering their positions and creating new long orders. There is definitely more room for shorts than shorts.

Even my shorts have been eliminated by the market's voice. I think there is a high probability that the longs will be slapped in the face tonight. As for the bottom, I am still optimistic about 58,500 and 57,800.

It is much better to catch the flying knife here than 60k, and the tolerance is larger.

What is divergence?

In the current market, each level has its own trend and ideas. For example, from the monthly line (Figure 1), the big cake is walking in the downward channel line, and the retracement has not touched the middle track of the monthly Bollinger band. MACD is about to form a dead cross.

For example, from the three-day line (Figure 2), the price has been a positive line for 9 consecutive days after the Yin column engulfed it, but the MACD of the attached indicator has also quietly turned to the short side.

For example, from the daily line (Figure 3), after the price fell from the top, it completed the Morning Star signal at the 60k integer level. The MACD short-selling momentum weakened, and there is a possibility of interweaving downward to form a golden cross again.

Finally, looking at the 12-hour line (Figure 4), it is also very rare for the price to fluctuate in the middle track. At present, the dead cross of the MACD below is also sticking to form a golden cross, but this kind of market is just like this. It will turn around at any time.

So Therefore, in the current market, I think the liquidity of the market will become very poor. The number of newly opened contracts is only some short-term ones, not to mention the spot. Except for those who are selling, they are waiting for a higher price to sell (after all, there is a saying that the big pie will rise in October, but it is a waste of time).

Almost no one buys this button, and everyone wants to do contracts, but in a market without liquidity, contracts can only be reduced to a tool for shock washing

In the short term, the price still did not fall below 62k, and it still rebounded in the four-hour chart. Such a rebound is usually accompanied by some pin-pointing behavior, so before Thursday's CPI, I think the market is still in a shock period

But the range is not like a bear market, it will last for a long time. Sometimes you think the range is right, and he will give you a false breakthrough, which is really difficult to deal with

What is it like to complete two days of market in one day?

Yesterday, the big pancake rushed up in the morning, fell back to the starting point before the US market, and rose again after the US market to break a new high

The important thing is that the US stock market is falling. What kind of fairy market is this? As for me, I was trapped, untrapped, and trapped again. Then I couldn’t rise to the point of replenishing my position, and missed a wave of 2000 points of decline

In the final analysis, it was still that my bottom position price was a bit high, and I couldn’t replenish my position before 2000 points

Anyway, yesterday’s market looked like it was trapping people. It was not enough to come twice. There was a wave of decline in the second half of the night. Since the shorts were stupid for cutting their losses, they also made those who pulled back to go long stupid. Only the shorts who lived in suites began to be happy and happy (I am one of them)

Back to the technical side, the market started to fall after reaching 0.382 yesterday. The morning closing made the daily line close in a long upward hammer pattern. At present, there are not too many good entry points for short sellers, because the small levels are all in the lower track range of the Bollinger Bands.

This long upward pull also has water, so it is definitely impossible to short with eyes closed. It is possible to rise again and fall today. 63k is always a vacuum range. There may be a market that rises rapidly after a strange force. The four-hour upper pressure is on the middle track position.

Brothers who have short positions are recommended to continue to hold them. As for long positions, it is better to consider the 0.50 position.

Is the current Bitcoin suitable for a surge?

My personal opinion is that it is not suitable. There is the negative impact of non-agricultural data in the front and the blood sucking of the A-share market in the back

The American thunder has always existed. The current pull-up and the subsequent positive CPI seem to stimulate liquidity and raise the prerequisite conditions reserved for shipments

Will there be a big rise this week?

Yes, in my eyes, Bitcoin will rise to 65k, which is a big rise. This kind of increase will cost a lot of trial and error costs to touch the top. A short-term retracement will give bulls the opportunity to enter the market and make money

From this point of view, 62.4k and 62.8k are the points where bulls are crazy

And 65k will be the sword of Damocles

Bitcoin started to pull back early in the morning, and the weekly line closed above the middle track of the Bollinger Band

It coincided with the previous high point, and I thought this week would be a normal technical repair

But last night's news brought more emotional market conditions, which led to a roller coaster ride early in the morning

Although the K-line on the daily line has risen, the short-term strength is insufficient, and there is a possibility of continuing to go up

The short-term pressure is still around 64,600. It depends on whether it will continue to extend upward and continue to go down today, which is closer to the top divergence pattern of the daily line

Although I said yesterday that I would be bullish this week, I am still optimistic about the decline in the previous two days

So I still maintain a high bearish market in the past two days, and at the same time, I must be prepared for low-multiples. As far as the current market is concerned

The decline will not be too deep unless there are more black swan news

PS: Figure 1 is a 4-hour K-line, and Figure 2 is a weekly K-line

A 50 basis point rate cut is beyond expectations. I have repeatedly emphasized this point in the past few days.

Don't look at how much the rate cut is, look at the continuity. This rate cut is more like a test.

All financial derivatives have returned to the level before the rate cut after hitting the high point.

It also shows that the market's expectations for this rate cut have actually been worn away.

This is what I said before. The market speculation on the Fed's rate cut expectations began in October last year.

So the price has been rising all the way, reaching its peak in March this year (except for gold, Chinese aunts are awesome).

Powell's press conference this time elaborated on two key points and a potential message.

The potential message is that this 50 basis point rate cut was led by Powell, and the purpose was to test the market's quality and whether it can accept the changes brought about by this rate cut.

Key point 1: Powell means , Don't think that the 50 basis point rate cut this time means what will happen in December or next year. Everything depends on data. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the rate will be cut in advance, otherwise it will not. As long as the labor market is strong, the rate will not be cut all the time.

Key point 2: The Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. In other words, it is paying off US debts. Balance sheet shrinkage is not conducive to rate cuts. I don't know if I understand this correctly, because paying off US debts means printing new money. A lot of money flows into the market, but it can't be taken back. The Fed is trapped in the vicious circle of rising inflation again.

In summary, I think the expectation of this rate cut has been smoothed by the market. The next market will depend on various data, among which non-agricultural data is the key point.

In addition, I don't know if my short position can reach the other side [lightly]

No matter, I'll get in first and then find a way

I haven't written about the market for two days. The price fell below 56k yesterday and recovered quickly in the evening.

Today, the white market fell again, and it is a new round of door-painting market.

There is no long K-line combination that can stand in the 4-hour market.

The upper side has been putting pressure downward. My understanding here is that the current decline is to reserve space for the rise of non-agricultural data tomorrow night.

That is, I think the non-agricultural data will rise. If it falls, the expectation of rising will move from the previous 60k and 59.5k to 58k and 58.5k.

For the time being, the white market will continue to fall, or fluctuate between 57-57.5k, continue to fall in the evening, and rise again tomorrow after falling through data.

In September, don't expect too much for a big rise. All declines are to force chips to enter the market, and all increases are to increase liquidity and retreat.

So, my idea remains unchanged. The contract is mainly empty, and the spot is carried out with the strategy of buying big when the big drop is big and buying small when the small drop is small.

Now the big players want to run away, but they are afraid that the run away will affect the market and turn it into a bear market

The retail investors or potential big players who have not entered the market want to enter, but they want to wait for the decline

No one wants to test the waters, and liquidity begins to dry up. It is a bit unbelievable that the liquidity of the 60k big pie is exhausted

People outside want to come in, people inside want to go out, but they are afraid that people outside will see that people inside want to go out and will not come in

Therefore, the Fed needs to cut interest rates to stimulate, and after the stimulation, it is time to smash and pull

The bull market is not over, it is just a halftime break

My idea is to start spot fixed investment after the interest rate cut

As for the contract, I only want to go short, at least break 48888 before considering more things

In the short term, without the influence of the US market yesterday, Bitcoin continued to exert its strength in the second half of the night

The price once returned to the 59k line, and the golden cross below the zero axis on the 4-hour macd has been formed

The white market may rise again near 585 587, because Bitcoin has not had any continuous rise and fall recently

We can regard the level expansion as a shock market. Since the level is expanded, the range will also be expanded accordingly

Respecting the golden cross market below the 4-hour zero axis, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the 60k integer barrier pressure today

Look at the situation in the evening. If it falls after more than two or even three attempts, you can participate in the short position. As for the long position, I don’t want to participate

Brothers can consider it for themselves. If Bitcoin falls after more than three attempts at 60k, it will greatly consume the kinetic energy of the four-hour golden cross, which is also the reason why we go short

September is called the fourth quarter abroad, which is the end

We usually call it the beginning of the second half of the year, which is commonly known as the golden September and silver October

Past data shows that every time in the second half of the year, the money we pour into the investment market is much more than in the first half of the year

This phenomenon will continue until the month before the Spring Festival before stagnation

At this time, the market will be taken over by new money from foreign markets

The current environment is sluggish, and you will see that safe-haven assets, especially gold, will remain strong as always

As for the big cake, it is hard to say whether its fundamental attribute is currency or safe-haven asset, we cannot go Conclude

We can only estimate the bottom of the market based on the cost price of miners

The US interest rate cut will start from this month, whether it is 25, 50 or 100 basis points, it will not affect people's expectations for this interest rate cut

The less it is cut, the more it will fall, the more it is cut, the less it will fall

The ETF, which has been hyped since the price of 25,000-28,000, fell by 20% after landing in January this year

If the interest rate cut cannot be continuous this time and the speech cannot support the market, the market may also fall by more than 20% again

The technical 0.618 37,000 is very likely to be tested

In terms of spot, it is more appropriate to start a fixed investment plan of buying big when the price drops and buying small when the price drops after the interest rate cut this month

Two options, one is to ignore the time of the price cycle and make fixed investments

The other is to start with a fixed price, divide the scattered money in your hand into 10 equal parts, and buy in warehouses

It is a foregone conclusion that the weekly line will stand firm on the middle track of the Bollinger Band. In the short term, the bullish sentiment has steadily overwhelmed the bearish sentimen#BitcoinSuper Topic#Blockchain[Super Topic]#

(Figure 1 Figure 2) is the simulated trend of the Bitcoin four-hour K-line chart

Last night we mentioned that there will be an opportunity to short at 8 am this morning. Maybe we need to wait a little longer because the K-lines of the daily and weekly lines are relatively smooth

So there may be inertia extending upward at 8 am, and then there will be pin-pointing behavior, but in the short term, what needs to be considered is a retracement to participate in a long position

The high MACD dead cross on the 4-hour K-line is a point we need to pay attention to. If the rise in the morning stops, then the point we should try to figure out is around 65600-65800

And the low point below that we can see today is 63500 62800. If the price falls below 62800, then Bitcoin will usher in a door-painting market. It is not impossible to break 6 in the short term.

It is understandable that Bitcoin and US stocks are hyped up due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but it is not certain whether this hype can make Bitcoin create a new high.

I think the hype of new highs in terms of price is to create liquidity and facilitate shipments. You know, when Bitcoin was around 60,000 last week, there was no trading volume, and liquidity was scarce.

Compared with the weekly chart of US stocks, such a K-line pattern has rebounded sharply, which is also incredible.

I can only say that what I have emphasized in the previous live broadcast is that the Federal Reserve can allow US stocks and their financial derivatives to fall and fluctuate, but it is not allowed to fall unilaterally, otherwise the economy will collapse.

(Figure 3) is the weekly chart of US stocks.

The current market feels like a runaway market. Take 8 o'clock in the morning as the call auction. It is very likely to start a violent decline after the pre-market rise and the continuation after the market.

But in the short term, we must respect the bullish pattern of weekly K and daily K, so we need to consider going long on the retracement.

After the revision of non-farm data, the strong interest rate cut expectations given by Powell at the annual meeting on Friday also stabilized the market price

Bitcoin rose with a strong positive line in the early hours of Saturday morning, causing the price to return to around 65k in the short term

On Saturday and Sunday, the price went out of the decline and repair market because of the gap caused by this round of rise

There should be many people who missed this round of rise, because after Powell's speech, the price broke through 62,300 in the short term, but fell back to around 60,500 within 15 minutes

So from the technical point of view at the time, the price was about to start a new round of decline, and because there were too many door-drawing markets before, this was the reason why many people missed this round of rise

This wave of rise, To be honest, it seems that there are a lot of changes, but in fact there are not many

Many people are very optimistic about the market, but the price K-line does not look that good

This makes me more uncertain about the market after October. After all, if the US starts to cut interest rates from fiscal year 2025, and it is greater than or equal to 50 basis points

Then the follow-up will depend on the market's acceptance. If not, it will continue to maintain high interest rates to harvest the world

Now the bear and the chicken in the basin have been roasted on the fire. The most powerful method of the Eagle Sauce should be that you are all guessing whether I will cut it or not. I will cut it a little first, and you continue to guess

The economy is not good this year. If there is an avalanche, then the first snowflake will be a pie

Yesterday, the summer camp gave me an order, which was the short position of 59700 in the white plate.

The highest was less than 1000 points. After reducing the position, I was temporarily out of the market because of the loss of principal.

It’s not that the short-sellers don’t have enough faith. It’s mainly because I have always believed that data is for people to see, not for people to do.

I believe that people who didn’t trade yesterday also outperformed 90% of the people who were trading in the market.

You can also understand the revision of the employed population as fraud, plus the Fed’s big talk after the interest rate decision.

The price rose rapidly by 2000 points in the short term, but once again touched the 618 line and fell back again.

Now the more interesting point is that the golden cross of the daily line gradually increased below the zero axis, but the long volume of the 4-hour line still did not show a posture of increasing volume.

The recent long and short positions always want to break through or something, so they are destined to suffer.

The market always believes that the price will bottom out twice and then violently pull up.

In fact, from another perspective, isn’t the big cake trying the 618 pressure position many times and then starting to fall violently?

The strength of the short-term decline is still greater than the strength of the rise. You know, it went to 560 last week.

I also said yesterday that for me, it is nothing more than a question of whether to go short now or wait for a short. I really don’t want to participate in the long position because I am unsure. I will stop loss and chase the short position if it falls a little.

In this case, why not reduce the position and find some points to go short?

So these are some of the ways I deal with these things that happened in the market this time.