老鲍的币风港

I went to bed at around 3am and took the roller coaster at around 4am

Fortunately, the price eventually fell back, and now it is a snack

The document signed by the King of Understanding has only one item about Bitcoin, which is to repeal the SAB121 Act. This is a preference for companies that hold Bitcoin and want to buy Bitcoin, which means that their assets will change with the price fluctuations of Bitcoin in the future

It is conducive to raising more money to buy Bitcoin. Before this bill was introduced, if a company bought Bitcoin for $30,000, even if the price of Bitcoin now reaches $100,000, the Bitcoin item in the company's balance sheet is still $30,000, without any change. On the contrary, if it falls, then the Bitcoin item in the balance sheet will show how much it has fallen. Less

This point is quite dissuading many large companies. After the bill is repealed, as more bills are signed, more American companies will join this feast

It is worth noting that there is no final plan for the strategic reserve of big cakes, and it is not known when it will start to move as expected

Since this positive news did not push big cakes to a new high, with the sharp increase in inflation in the CPI report of the daily life, and it is said that there is a demand for interest rate hikes in the afternoon, then the negative news for big cakes will follow one after another. How long can it last? I don’t know

The technical daily line has peaked and formed a sign of a downward relay, so in the short term, it is still dominated by shorts. Pin rebound and bottom-fishing are two concepts

Don’t pattern in the near future is the biggest protection for yourself

The rebound last night was beyond expectations.

I originally thought it would only hover around 950 before coming down.

However, I underestimated the foreigners' determination to buy New Year goods before the holiday, and the price once climbed up to 96k before stopping.

Now, this downward trend line is still valid, as it was quickly brought down after rising.

Moreover, the golden cross momentum indicator on the four-hour chart showed signs of turning back before it could gain strength.

All of this seems like a bait for more buying, and with the overall market closed today, the volatility is likely to be small, which might actually stimulate more buying activity. The monthly candle looks quite good, a hammer bearish line, and the beginning of the month should still see a downward trend.

#比特币走势分析

The video is not very clear

Concise

The price has the possibility of a short-term rebound, but there is significant selling pressure above

It has now moved from the previous 97k to around 94k

See the chart

There are two possible trends: one, a rebound to 94 followed by a major drop without breaking 9, leading to a downward fluctuation tomorrow

The other, starting a drop near 92k, hitting 8 tonight, and a corrective fluctuation tomorrow

As for whether it can return to 90k, we need to refer to next week's data expectations ​​​

This week, on Monday and Tuesday, the annual and monthly lines need to be closed.

The fluctuations are either very flat or a one-sided situation that comes too fast.

To put it simply, it's about selling on rebounds, but we don't know where the pressure is, and whether it can hold up when it arrives.

Chasing now is risky as we are at a support level, and the smaller time frames tell us that buying pressure is strong; we fear it might fall into a pit and not recover.

This means there aren't many good trading opportunities; from the market share perspective, a total market value of 38 trillion has evaporated by more than 3000.

Meanwhile, the altcoins led by Bitcoin are experiencing a large-scale rebound, possibly waiting for Bitcoin to signal a drop.

If Bitcoin doesn't fall, then the rebound of the altcoins will be faster than that of Bitcoin, but it won't last long; don't buy them as family heirlooms.

Only after the annual line is closed will there be a clearer understanding and strategy.

🥶🥶In less than 12 hours

We first experienced a downward shock

Then we endured the pain of a V-shaped reversal

Finally, we managed to come down to 96400 here (the strategy given in the video is this level)

Before we could even be happy for four hours, we fell into the panic of a V-shaped reversal

In one day, the price is still the same as last night's price, and my mind has flipped directions 800 times

Is this the difficulty of purgatory? Can my short position at 96873 still reach the other side?

First, let me share my personal speculation:

After the coin dropped from a high position, it failed to rebound and challenge the 100,000 mark on Friday, and fell over the weekend.

As we approach the weekly close, the price has once again dropped back to around 95k, and there is a possibility of continued decline during the daytime.

Today marks the first day of MicroStrategy's listing on the US stock market, and we can feel the power of institutions.

Additionally, tomorrow the market will close three hours early, and the day after will be a full market closure, leading to relatively poor liquidity, which can be referenced by the weekend's fluctuations.

Since the fluctuation range over the next two days is not large, it is very likely that we will see a rebound and correction from today's excessive decline.

Therefore, my personal speculation is that there will be a one-sided decline today, followed by a rebound and correction over the next two days, ultimately closing the month around 97k.

As long as the coin does not drop below 90k, I will not take a long position. A 6%-7% drop in the coin is a sign of respect for MicroStrategy.

Of course, if you brothers want to go long, just manage your positions well. I won’t block your path to wealth; I just hope you have some risk awareness.

You go to a wedding banquet, you might eat half or leave after finishing your meal.

Later, someone tells you that after you left, they served fruit platters and desserts.

But you wouldn't feel that leaving early was a mistake.

On the contrary, you know that if you rush back to eat that fruit platter, the hotel might already be closed, and you could waste your time and the money you spent on the taxi or gas to drive there.

If you treat each transaction like a banquet, it's about when you sit down to eat and when you leave, and whether you'll regret not having the fruit and dessert after leaving and rush back to have a bite.

The costs incurred this way and the probability of falling into sunk costs are quite high. Let's encourage each other!

If it drops again today, the support at 93k is not sufficient

Another deep squat to 88-89

Then bounce back to around 95-97 to form a monthly K-line cross star is the best scenario

Hope it can go this way ​​​

Today's white market judgment validated my video explanation idea.

What is more abstract is that the order at 1028888 did not get filled.

During the live broadcast, I watched the market drop all the way down, and a voice in my head kept telling me to integrate knowledge and action.

Then I jumped in, and the result was quite good.

A brother asked me, it seems that whether in a bull market or a bear market, beginners always lose money.

In this market, let's not even mention beginners; even Buffett would leave something behind before he leaves.

Trading is about cultivating the mind; while emphasizing methods, one must also overcome many human weaknesses.

The direction seems less important; when the market is falling, I can profit, but when it rises, I will definitely get hit because my understanding is limited, and I haven't deeply grasped the concept of a wild bull market.

However, after this round, I think that when the daily line is about to golden cross below the zero axis, buying on dips will be my main strategy.

Currently, it seems too early; continuing to rebound and shorting is a more standard trading behavior.