Two interesting things happened in the market. Record them and see what happens?

The biggest news in the market these days should be the Ftx asset disposal and this week’s macro news (CPI, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc.). From the perspective of the information itself, it is not good news for the extremely unsmooth market. The market needs to face it head-on. Selling pressure on FTX shitcoin bags and macro uncertainty.

But the interesting and counter-intuitive thing happened unexpectedly.

1. Buying orders in the BTC US time zone are ahead of the Asian and European markets. The behavior of the US market is understood as leading behavior by the market (interested friends can refer to the pie price performance corresponding to the behavior of the three time zones at 0615).

Follow the news

1. Binance responded to the CYBER current currency-earning financing incident. The current price difference caused a surge in borrowing demand, so it was impossible to collect the money in a short time.

2. The editorial board of Bloomberg published a commentary article saying: SEC should approve a spot Bitcoin ETF first

3. Binance announced that XIRTAM’s recovered assets are open for redemption, and are limited to users participating in private placements and public offerings.

4. ARK INVEST applied for the first spot Ethereum ETF in the United States

5. The CFTC Commissioner stated that he will release recommendations on digital asset regulatory standards next month.

The pie continues to fluctuate, touching around 25300 again overnight and then rebounding. The current price is basically the same as yesterday's price, and the up and down pins have returned to oscillation. The trend of Ether is slightly more elastic than the pie. This is mainly due to the ETF analyst from Bloomberg saying that ARK and 21shares submitted an application for the first spot Ethereum ETF in the United States. It rebounded quickly due to the news. However, the current Bitcoin spot ETF is still pending, so the narrative structure of the market has not fundamentally changed, and the shock pattern has not been broken.

The darkness will pass and the cow will come.

Let’s first talk about our current views, which must give everyone a boost of faith.

The longest and saddest bear market in 2022 has passed. This year has experienced a critical blow from the big pie and the entire market. This year, we are at the junction of bulls and bears, which is the buffer zone (monkey market).

As the name suggests, the market has gradually stabilized after a round of large-scale declines, thus starting a long period of shock accumulation, waiting for the policy and fundamentals to gradually improve to prepare for the subsequent bull market.

At this time, the existing funds in the market and the trading enthusiasm of retail investors have been severely affected by the decline. Therefore, in order to prevent the market from cooling down, the main players began to artificially create hot spots to sell various junk coins or monster coins.

The pattern that ID is following recently

Originally, I didn’t want to mention the mode currency, because once it goes into this mode, it proves that the currency is a CX market, but many fans are asking, so I will simply say that it is out of mode, so it has risen for several days in a row, and the market is generally dull. Every time, model coins become popular, and this time is no exception. Whether you want to participate or not depends on your own gambling habits. I will not make any comments or suggestions.

What do you think of the current market cycle?

Old readers all know that it has been emphasized that there will be a sharp decline in the second half of the year, and the bottom position is judged to be around 20,000. However, unless there is a black swan event, the decline must be slow and cloudy, and the possibility of the bottom position being reached in one step in the near future is low, so The market trend in the second half of the year should be a downward spiral process, with a series of counterfeit performances interspersed in the middle, most of which are unpredictable. It is recommended to wait and see for the long-term operation.

It’s another new week, and they say everything will fall. SBC has already fallen last week. Will KBW continue to fall next week at 2049 this week?

Bitcoin

It was analyzed two weeks ago that in the short term, it will fluctuate back and forth between the previous low and 28,000. However, judging from the rebound in the past three days, it is very weak. In addition, the trading volume is very sluggish, and MACD has signs of a second death cross. , beware of falling back to the previous low of 24,500 next week, or even falling below it.

On the one hand, historical experience shows that the market market in September has not been very good; on the other hand, with the continuous delay of ETFs, there is the possibility of leaving the market with a large number of 29K-30K positions (there is also the possibility of leaving the market last week on CME) Pay in quantity).

A large part of the reason for this decline is that the Bitcoin ETF has been postponed. This is actually not a big negative, but the market reaction is surprisingly "panic". This is everyone's fault.

September’s big events (I’ve been looking around and found that no one has compiled a more comprehensive list than mine. You can keep it as a collection. In addition, there is no content about token unlocking in this summary. You can go directly to the website to see this yourself: token.unlocks .app, or I’ll make a September version for everyone later)

Let’s talk about the market:

It went back and forth due to the influence of the news, and returned to the original point. From the chart, the good point is that Bitcoin has recovered on the weekly line; the bad point is that it failed to hold on and fell. At present, the weekly, monthly, and quarterly lines have all broken. , it looks ugly, and the funds are not coming in. If we wait and see, it means that it will need to be repaired for a while.