It's a new week again. It is said that there will be a fall every time there is a meeting. SBC has already fallen last week. Will KBW this week and 2049 continue to fall next week?

Bitcoin

It was analyzed two weeks ago that in the short term it would oscillate back and forth between the previous low and 28,000, but judging from the rebound in the past three days, it is very weak, coupled with the very low trading volume, MACD shows signs of a second death cross, so we must be careful to prevent it from falling back to the previous low of 24,500 next week, or even falling below it.

On the one hand, historical experience shows that the market conditions in September have not been very good; on the other hand, with the continuous delay of ETFs, there is a possibility of selling out due to the large number of 29K-30K positions previously established (in addition to the huge amount of buy orders on CME last week).

Until the final result of the ETF, the more this happens, the greater the probability of a gate appearing due to news, but the problem is that the momentum will decline, and God knows when inertia will create a heavy blow.

In addition, from the short-term trend, the prices of both Coinbase and GBTC have fallen from the high point of the Grayscale event, and both have fallen by more than half of the increase. Although the decline of Coinbase and GBTC does not mean that BTC and ETH will definitely fall, it also shows that investors in the United States and even the world are not optimistic that the SEC will approve the BTC spot ETF in the short term. The early announcement was delayed because of the holiday. Today is Labor Day in the United States, and the stock market is closed for one day, so today is actually the lowest point of liquidity like the weekend. The next approval will be in mid-October. According to the SEC's style of doing things, there is still a high possibility of further extension.

Is it time to buy at the bottom?

We have always been saying that we should start building positions gradually when prices fall, and $26,000 is the beginning of building positions for many investors. This does not mean that we should go all in at $26,000, but that starting from $26,000, as long as BTC and ETH continue to fall, we will start buying in batches.

The price of BTC failed to stably fall below $26,000 despite repeated attacks from the SEC and CFTC in April, May and the first half of June. In the fourth quarter of last year, BTC fell below $16,000 mainly due to the Luna and FTX incidents. Unless there is a black swan event of similar or even higher scale, the price may not fall to a new low in the short term.

From the trading volume, we can also see that in the two weeks after BTC fell back to $26,000, we can see from Binance that the general weekday trading volume has been higher than the average trading volume after BlackRock applied for the ETF. The trading volume at $26,000 has exceeded the trading volume around $30,000. Although this does not mean that there is a bullish sentiment, it means that many investors believe that starting from $26,000 is the first step to build a position.

Although this does not mean that the prices of BTC and ETH will definitely rise in the future, the fact that more investors and more funds are entering the market shows that at least many people still believe in the cyclical theory. As for whether $26,000 is the bottom, it is hard to say now. The current narrative is still about BTC spot ETFs and BTC halving cycles.

Altcoins

Binance’s IEO finally turned around, CyberConnect became the brightest star of the week, and took other IEOs with it (I was finally right for once!). Looking at CC’s road to pumping up the market, it seems that only this target meets all the possibilities:

1. The market cap is small. At its lowest point, the MC was only 30M and the FDV was only 300M, which was just enough to cover the cost line of institutional investment two years ago. Compared with Sei in the same period, it has maintained a high market cap/FDV of 150M/1.5B for a long time.

2. The price was pulled up just a few days before the mining was stopped. As the price continued to fall after listing, a lot of funds would short sell, and the sentiment was relatively pessimistic.

3. Compared with the previous IEOs, it is cleaner. As a Defi project, MAV/Pendle’s TVL, transaction volume and handling fees are the bottom line. Especially MAV, 40M TVL (VS 60M MC is a bit exaggeratedly low), single pool daily handling fees are tens of U, and small hundreds of U. Such data is not a bottom line with many holes poked. ARKM has always been mysterious. God knows whether the team will directly smooth out the fluctuations when facing the pull.

4. After listing on the Korean exchange, an island was created due to cross-chain reasons. Those with coins rushed to Binance early, resulting in the inability to flatten the market through arbitrage in Korea (or the coins were withdrawn from Binance). The decline in the amount of coins in Binance led to an imbalance in the trading volume of spot and futures. This contradiction made every price fluctuation have a huge impact on the contract position, further exacerbating the island.

Other cottage aspects

1. The Layer2 project has completely stalled, indicating that the market trend is still very bad. Compared with the influence of "Narrative", it is still real data and market manipulation that can support the price, just like MKR is still very strong after Vitalik Buterin's market crash, which shows that the secondary market does not pay attention to "political correctness" like the primary market.

2. The on-chain local dogs have reached the end one after another, while the contract group has surpassed under the leadership of CC, and the activity of funds has begun to rise again. What should I pay attention to? I personally think that it is better to look at the small-cap old projects with contracts on Binance and see who is still actively holding activities. There is a high possibility that they will pull the market with the news of publicity.