If there is no black swan, for example, this round of interest rate hikes will continue more than twice next year; the U.S. stock market crashes, etc...

Even if the Bitcoin ETF continues to be postponed or even rejected.
Even if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates for the last time this November, as long as it does not increase more than twice, I think November will be the last time it raises interest rates.

If these two more disadvantageous situations are superimposed.
I also believe that the weekly level of Bitcoin’s bear market will not fall below 18,000 US dollars (not excluding the rapid violent washout pins similar to 312), the probability is more than 80% (actually I want to say 90%), and the other probability is left to Give it a black swan event.

Therefore, now is still a good time for long-term batch buying and long-term fixed investment!
In the market outlook, if you encounter a cheat copy of $25,000, a large copy of $21,800, and a full position copy of $18,000! In stock only!

The above is a simple long-term analysis, detailed analysis logic depends on mood and time sharing.
You can also just use it as a negative indicator, but good luck to you.

The trend always starts quietly and unconsciously...

When you react belatedly

When you join the vigorous bull camp

The washout will follow

So, now, at this moment

You should continue to increase your position and continue to buy

Otherwise, you will miss the most fruitful fruits of this autumn! 😉😉😉

The interesting thing about this market is that
three big positive lines are bullish...

But at the same time
the opposite is three big negative lines are bearish

This wave of rebound has not excited many people
It can be seen that many people are numbed by the torture of this market
Including me, so too😂

Every time the pattern is to return to the pre-liberation period or cut losses and wait and see

But I think
the shock trend is about to end, and the unilateral trend is about to come
The market will reward those firm long-term spot holders and eliminate the reckless contract speculators

Believe me, hold the spot firmly
The long-term bulls can win 😀😀😀

Oh, dog dealer...

All the money is trapped and lost...
All those who play contracts have gone to zero or even in debt...
So, how can we, the leeks, take over?
This plate is too big! This routine is so smooth 😂

The four kings of Bitcoin ecosystem:
ORDI
SATS
RATS
PIZZA

I heard that it is these four?
Are there any objections?
Which one is the leader
🙂

Share a ghost story

EOS circulation market value is 720 million US dollars
ORDI/SATS market value is 650 million US dollars

So, after so many years
Why does EOS still have a market value of 700 million US dollars?
What value does it have to support this market value?

And the market value of meme, the leader of the Bitcoin ecosystem, lags behind it...
EOS EOS, I'm afraid new investors have never heard of this coin🙄

A quick calculation
The time for a change in the market will be around mid-September, when the price of Bitcoin falls to the range of 50,000-54,000
It is recommended to buy the spot in batches for the medium and long term!

Of course, the premise is that you think there is still a bull market
If you think the bull market is over, you must clear your position and leave quickly
For the volatility of Bitcoin in the past six months
My bottom line is around $50,000
If it falls below this price range at the weekly level or above
It's over, I'm also pessimistic...

Three trend lines determine the bull-bear cycle~
For the time being, it's still effective...

Good luck to everyone^_^

From 3,000 yuan of capital to 10 million yuan in more than 8 months, the asset has increased by more than 50,000 times from the low point to the high point

Aibi 10,000 years is the second wave of super traders on the coin contract emperor list
But in fact, not many people know...

Recalling those amazing traders in the past
Ouyang Zhaibai, Fat House Bitcoin, Banmuxia, Bithuang, traderTT, Deweier, Aibi 10,000 years, etc...
They have all retired, really done the subtraction, and returned to life...

Maybe except TT, the others are grassroots traders who start from 0 and upgrade step by step
The waves wash away the sand, and there are more super traders in the last round
It is also because of these legendary stories that retail investors like me have a direction and role model
There are only a few people who want to continue those legendary stories
One general succeeds and thousands of bones die...

The shock structure I hate the most is the diffusion triangle!
It has been half a year since mid-March, and I don’t know when the shock will continue...

The market is very cold, and now it feels like it has returned to the shock cycle from April to September 23
Many people are disappointed and frustrated, and the sharp withdrawal of funds makes people feel bad and depressed...
Whether it is an ordinary retail investor or a trader you know, after all, they are not Yongzhuan teachers, and it is not easy to survive...

80% of the time in the market is almost garbage time of shocks, which should be avoided for trend traders, otherwise they will face capital withdrawal
Of course, this is a paradise for shock traders, but those who can do shocks well are rare...
And the extreme shock narrowing and the continuous reduction in volatility also indicate the arrival of the opportunity for a change in the market and the arrival of a unilateral trend!
Whether you choose to go up or down, long it or short it!

Whether there is a bull market in the next market.
At this moment, it is recommended to train the short button more!
Because from the trend rhythm of this round of the market, when the bear market really comes,
It will be 10 times worse than now!

Good luck to everyone!

Do you still remember this exchange rate chart of ETH/BTC?

Although it is still a bit far to reach 0.027, 0.037 is within reach...
ETH's strength is often at the end of the bull market
But this round of ETH has to be said to be really disappointing...

So, when will the bull market end?
I think it may end around the first or second quarter of 2025~
Anyway, I am pessimistic about the market in the second half of 2025, and the first half of the year is also very difficult to play...
For most people, the market in 2024 is worth looking forward to!

In this round of bull market, the price of ETH is unlikely to break the upper resistance zone of this rising channel.

But where will it go in the end? As time goes by, we will slowly get the answer.

5000? 6000? Or 7000?
Don't guess, and don't need to guess.

When Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, it is the time when some high-quality altcoins start to go crazy. This wave of Bitcoin is likely to reach a new high directly. After all, this wave of washing is really fierce. The contract holdings have fallen sharply, and both the long and short positions have been wiped out... Some have also been wiped out back and forth. For most people, don't touch the contract... It's so nice to buy spot and lie flat🤣 Look, the price of Bitcoin has returned~~~

You will never see Bitcoin below 50,000 again!
If you do, it will be in the next bear market!
😂😂😂😂😂

The price of Bitcoin has almost reached 60,000 dollars in the blink of an eye...

This reminds me of the deep wash of the market in February 2023. It was just a hard pull, followed by a continuous hard smash, and the last good news (I remember it was BTC ETF) directly pushed it to a new high...

This wave was also a hard pull, followed by a continuous hard smash. Will there be good news next? I don’t know!
Anyway, the price has risen rapidly and is close to 60,000 dollars!
The weekly K has now directly pulled back to a positive line...

It is really hell mode for contract players!
The sharp drop, even if there are bottom-fishing, quickly grab a rebound to stop profit
After the rebound, it is also considered to be just a rebound. Many people follow the short selling and lose money

It is really fun after Huajie Capital enters this market
It really makes retail investors like me lose so much...

If Bitcoin continues to be so stable, or rises a few points, then this week's weekly K will be interesting. A downward needle. The price has not changed, but the position is gone. 😀😀😀

If this week's weekly K is closed well, and next week continues to be stable and rises a few points, or the price rises to $60,000 in the next few weeks, then this month's monthly K will be very interesting. However, this is only the second week of this month. The next two weeks are the biggest uncertainty factor. Take your time and deduce the status of naked K according to the passage of time.

Others, whether it is the US government, Grayscale, or Plustoken, if something big happens, just run away. The main thing is to locate the long-term path well, and the rest is the rhythm of copying in batches when the market drops. 😉

In the last bull market, my biggest profit came from ETH contract speculation
In this bull market, I originally set the price of ETH to be $12,800 (dream price)

But now, I want to say
In this bull market, it is really difficult for the price of ETH to exceed $10,000
If it can reach $7,000 or $8,000
I feel very relieved

Well, I also have long-term spot ETH
In terms of sentiment, I naturally hope it can go higher, even $100,000 per coin😂

In the bull market cycle, every weekly level drop is a good time to buy!
In the bear market cycle, every weekly level drop will still be followed by a big drop!

Will this week's weekly line close with a positive line? Will it stand above $60,000 again?
Anyway, the current state is pretty good, and I look forward to it being stronger!

For altcoins
If you don’t manage your positions well and don’t have a good stop-loss strategy...
One day, you will regret it!

—— Complaint from an old investor

Today, ETF data
BTC ETF has been steadily outflowing in the past two days, and the amount is not small
After this wave of sharp declines, the market is expected to need more time to digest and restore investor confidence
ETH ETF's recent Grayscale selling is weakening, which is a signal of a slow turn for the better, but it will not be able to reverse upward in the short term
At least, it gives people hope, and is still optimistic about ETH, but this round of performance is indeed a bit bad, compared to BTC and SOL, it is too weak, and I hope it can perform well at the end of the bull market
The current Nikkei rebound is also fierce, and the Bank of Japan's temporary non-interest rate hike has also eased panic, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates urgently
It seems that the temporary situation is not useful, and it is not particularly bad
Continue to be optimistic about the normal rhythm of interest rate cuts in September. The market expects a 50 basis point cut, which is estimated to be not optimistic about the market outlook from 25 to this
If you want to win, you must first Live
From the current situation, long-term batch purchases of BTC and other "value coins" are still the first choice
This round of altcoins is too miserable. Even if there is a altcoin season in the near future, most people will still lose money
It is better to buy big cakes and live quietly, because the elimination rate of altcoins and contracts is too high

Don't think that you should play contracts and altcoins because you have little money. The problem is that 99% of people are not capable of playing at all
It is better to start with low-risk, gradually accumulate experience, and be familiar with the market's fluctuations before considering part of the funds to pursue high risks

The cryptocurrency market will always be there, and it is still the place with the most opportunities. If you want to use it as an ATM, you must first have the ability.
Best wishes.

The last time the VIX index was this high was in March 2020...
At that time, the black swan of the epidemic caused a global stock market crash, and Bitcoin presented a once-in-a-lifetime long-term buying opportunity!
So, what about this time?

Well, like last time, I still don’t dare to buy at the bottom😂