Evening Thoughts on November 4
Currently, a wave-like adjustment is forming at the 4-hour level, with bullish rebounds repeatedly facing resistance at the 4-hour midline. At the beginning of the week, we continue to look for a continuation of the pullback, with the daily midline and the 4-hour midline serving as the critical lines for adjustment. Below this position, we continue to look for a pullback; if this position is reclaimed, adjustments can be made in real-time.
Operation Suggestions:
For Bitcoin, short near 69000-69300, targeting 68200-67500
For Ethereum, short near 2480-2500, targeting 2450-2430

11.4 Afternoon Thoughts

Currently, the price comparison volume has slowed down, again under pressure in the same range downwards. Based on the current rebound strength, the trend is still in a phase of consolidation. On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands show signs of flattening, and the K-line has formed three consecutive upward movements, but overall it has not broken through the upper band. In the short term, the middle band has certain pressure on the market, and the daytime trend is slowing down. Both long and short positions can be operated in the short term, but position and risk should be controlled. In the larger direction, with no positive news materializing, we still believe there is a possibility for the price comparison to continue to decline.

Bitcoin 68800-69000 short, target around 67600
Ethereum 2480-2490 short, target around 2400

Morning Thoughts on November 4th

Currently, the market sentiment is very low, and the short-term outlook is bearish! We cannot stop this downward trend; the price level of 68,000 has already broken consecutively, and there are no signals to maintain a bullish stance. Right now, it's all about Trump and Harry; it depends on the situation in Pennsylvania. Whoever can seize this area will be stable!

The suggestion for today is to focus mainly on short positions! Always pay attention to the signals from that side of the market sentiment! Once there is any sign of change, it will cause significant movement in the market.
​Trading Suggestions
For Bitcoin, short directly at the rebound of 68,700-69,200, with a target of 67,200.
For Ethereum, short directly at the rebound of 2,480-2,500, with a target of 2,360.

The current market is too hard to play, here’s a summary:

1. Market fluctuations have clear cycles: A complete market cycle lasts about four years, look at: 16-17, 20-21, 24-25.

2. Long-term holding is necessary to make big money: Especially at the beginning of a bull market, when the four-year cycle has just started, this is when you should hold on tight.

3. Big bull coins will eventually surge: Any undervalued big bull coin, as long as you dare to hold it, will eventually explode!

4. Don’t compare with mainstream coins blindly: Most small coins can’t keep up with mainstream coins in the end, and blindly messing around might not even beat Bitcoin!

5. The regret of a bull market is not holding on: Most people regret not holding on during a bull market, not that they didn’t buy in!

6. When no one believes in a bull market, it’s already here: When everyone thinks it’s not a bull market, the bull market is actually right in front of us!

Spot: Before the election results are out, abandon the harmonious market; if trading spot, it will only be with a small position, short-term trades, so one must pursue very satisfactory price points or patterns before taking action. If not, the choice will be to abstain.

Shanzhai: All Shanzhai have already been eliminated above the cost price. The next procurement point is: when the external environment stabilizes, Bitcoin's trend stabilizes, and after Bitcoin breaks through the previous high confirming the main rise, then make the second batch.

In the past three months, apart from meme tokens, none of the so-called value coins have performed well! This has dealt a great blow to the market!

Stay away from the crypto circle's low-quality bloggers, cherish your life. Those who casually talk about 10x or 30x returns, out of 10 low-quality coins that come from the domestic market, only 1 will succeed. Moreover, you will only be able to invest in Ant's warehouse, and even if you get a 10x, it will at most allow you to invest in 5 more. In reality, you will soon lose it all. Believing in such people will only lead you deeper into the crypto circle. Those low-quality coins with a market cap of 100,000 and only 100 SOL in the pool, once the front-row rat trading hits, your group friends' PVP ends, and you won't even have time to escape.

Overview of Important News on November 3, 2024

1. This week, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) saw a significant influx of funds, with a total net inflow of $2.2202 billion, reflecting the market's ongoing optimism towards digital currencies.

2. Michael Saylor's viewpoint indicates that Bitcoin possesses all the advantages of gold while avoiding its inherent flaws, highlighting Bitcoin's uniqueness and market recognition as a new asset class.

3. The Chief Legal Officer of Coinbase questioned the secret actions of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), accusing it of suppressing the crypto industry, which has raised market concerns about the regulatory environment for the crypto sector.

4. According to the latest data, Tether's total secured loan size has reached $6.72 billion, all backed by liquid assets, demonstrating the strong support and good asset backing of stablecoins.

5. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has increased by 0.38% over the past week, nearing the highest level since May 2022, reflecting the sustained demand and trust in stablecoins from the market.

6. Mr. Chen Maobo revealed that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, together with the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), has established a $1 billion fund, which will focus on investing in areas such as financial technology to promote cooperation and development between the two parties in the fintech sector.

7. Paxos plans to release the first attestation report for the Singapore-compliant stablecoin USDG, developed in collaboration with DBS Bank, this month, which will help drive further application and development of this stablecoin in the market.

Key events for next week:

1. U.S. Presidential Election - Tuesday

2. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Data - Tuesday

3. Initial Jobless Claims Data - Thursday

4. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - Thursday

5. MI Consumer Sentiment Data - Friday

6. ~15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings

Presidential Election: A Battle of Money
The presidential election is a contest where the stakes are incredibly high! This year's race for the presidential throne is set to break historical records, becoming the most expensive one yet.

An article from Bloomberg on November 1 reported that 11,100 political groups have poured $14.7 billion into this grand spectacle for 2024! That's right, $14.7 billion.

The political arena in the United States is a stage built on money. Legally, there are no restrictions on campaign financing, and when the Democrats and Republicans clash, ads, texts, and emails flood the voters as if they cost nothing. So where did the $14.7 billion go? Television commercials bombard the airwaves, fundraising events occur one after another, and there are canvassers knocking on doors, all busy as bees. It is said that this money accounts for 92% of the total spending for the entire 2024 election cycle.

More than 11,000 political groups have opened their wallets, including several big shots, such as billionaire Elon Musk. This election has seen celebrities and influencers personally getting involved, donating money, and rallying support, having a great time.

On October 19, in Pennsylvania, Musk supported Trump. He pulled out a $1 million check and gave it to a lucky audience member. Previously, he had launched an online petition supporting the Constitution, pledging to send $1 million daily to the signers of the petition until the election. That's quite a commitment!

On the Harris side, Microsoft mogul Bill Gates, who hadn't touched politics for decades, also stepped in this time, directly donating $50 million to Harris!

Forbes magazine reported that Harris has approximately 80 billionaires backing her, while Trump has the support of 50 billionaires. This presidential election is essentially a “wealth showdown” among billionaires.

This election is not just about choosing a president; it’s practically about selecting the wealthiest candidate!

The most frequently asked questions about counterfeit issues, summarized here

Question 1: Is there still hope for Tao?
I am still holding Tao, but if friends didn't get in at the earlier stage when I mentioned it, those who chased later are likely trapped. The support for Tao is around 380, and I currently plan to clear some other currencies to maintain flexibility in my holdings. If it stabilizes around 380, I will consider adding more positions, as there is at least a possibility of a rebound to 480-520.

Question 2: Is Saga dead?
It is dead, but not completely. Saga actually allowed entry early at 1.2-1.3, but most fans likely entered later. It is indeed quite difficult, and I dare not hold positions in the subsequent market. Saga has now fallen below the strong support of around 1.85, and there is a probability of drawing a door on the daily chart, turning into a weekly oscillating trend. I hope for a rebound to around 1.71 to reduce my holdings, and then wait for stabilization in the range of 1.2-1.3 to re-enter.

Question 3: Can I get in on Sui now?
Since the last time I swapped at 1.97, I haven't touched Sui. Previously, there were two opportunities around 1.6, but I didn't seize them. Due to the 3-day line just opening a dead cross, I hope to return to around 1.6 to see if it can stabilize. At that time, I can consider entering on the right side; if it cannot stabilize, I may observe the range of 1.4-1.45. The fundamentals of Sui are very strong.

Question 4: What do people think now?
The previous speculation on the election trend was a complete failure. I was too subjective in judging that there might be a surge before the election, while ignoring the fact that the market itself had no breakthrough. I should have exited a week ago. The current support has come to around 0.053-0.055, but I plan to reduce my holdings by half when it rebounds to around 0.0645. This is to increase the flexibility of my holdings to cope with potential risks ahead.

The U.S. presidential election is nearing its end. Who do you think it will be?

Many people do not know that the results of the U.S. election are not officially announced, and there is no national election commission, nor does any governmental body have the authority to tally the election results.

Since 1848, the results of U.S. elections have been the responsibility of the Associated Press, a private media organization. Of course, almost all media in the U.S. are private institutions.

The founders of the United States were not comfortable giving such power to Congress, so they thought of the 'fourth estate' media, which is why this seemingly awkward electoral process exists. The Associated Press is only responsible for the arithmetic, adding up the votes (electoral votes) from each state one by one, allowing mathematics to decide who the President of the United States will be.

Unexpectedly, this U.S. election is so distressing that regardless of the outcome, people are worried about whether there will be further unrest in the U.S. The wealthy in America are also voting with their feet, and the number of rich individuals planning to flee the U.S. is rapidly increasing, as they fear potential violence.

The 2 most important events next week:
The fantasies of retail investors are:
- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉50%
- Trump elected, Bitcoin skyrockets 📈100,000
1. The results of the election on November 5th may be announced that night. Remember the last time Trump was elected, the market went from limit up to limit down, and many people were ruined in one day.
2. The interest rate meeting from November 6th to November 7th, if rates are cut, it could lead to a wave of increases. If not cut, it is likely to follow the original trend. According to non-farm data, this meeting is expected to cut by 25 basis points, but if these two events are combined, the situation becomes complicated and there may be a significant fluctuation.

The structure of this round of Bitcoin market is clear. Whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not disrupt the market structure. The operators are responsible for the market trend and maximizing their own interests, not for Trump or Harris.

Therefore, after the election results come out at noon on the 6th, the market's fluctuations may be far lower than most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of rate cuts, or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, etc.

The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, there will be a spike up/down. Then the market will continue to move as it should. The Bitcoin market structure has been formed through a series of actions over half a year of declines/oscillations/forced selling/accumulation, and will not be disrupted by any single event.

The benefit of the U.S. election for operators is that it can be used both positively and negatively, increasing volatility and market divergence, with stories to tell. The U.S. election is the most favorable tool for operators to tell stories after ETFs.

Both rising and falling can lead to liquidation! Bitcoin plunges during trading, and another 100,000 people liquidated in the cryptocurrency market!

Today, the virtual currency market is once again "flowing with blood."

According to data from Investing.com, Bitcoin has dropped to nearly $68,000 per coin during trading today. Over the past 24 hours, more than 100,000 people have been liquidated in the virtual currency market.

Last Tuesday (October 29), Bitcoin once soared to nearly $74,000 per coin, followed by continuous corrections.

On October 29, cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin suddenly surged significantly. Among them, Bitcoin rose to nearly $74,000 per coin, hitting a new high since June 7, with Ethereum, Dogecoin, BNB, Cardano, and others following suit.

At that time, analysts pointed out that the rise in cryptocurrencies was related to multiple news stimuli. Among them, Trump's poll numbers surpassing Harris's was the biggest stimulating factor.

Additionally, the tech giant Microsoft, with a market capitalization exceeding $30 trillion, is considering whether to invest in Bitcoin. Over the past two weeks, the world's largest asset management firm, BlackRock, has purchased 34,000 Bitcoins, worth about $2.4 billion (approximately 17 billion RMB), and currently holds Bitcoin worth over 200 billion RMB.

Given Trump's heightened enthusiasm for the crypto industry, during the campaign, the crypto industry spent a significant amount of money to promote its agenda, and Bitcoin is also referred to as the "Trump trade." As Trump leads in the prediction market, Bitcoin has also seen a "rising tide raises all boats" effect.

Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, wrote in a report that Trump’s "stagnation before the election and potential risk reduction" may be the reason for Bitcoin's retest of the $70,000 level.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research Inc. wrote in a report: "While Bitcoin may drop if Harris wins the election, its reaction to Trump’s election as president is more difficult to measure." "Bitcoin may continue to rise, or considering the gains so far this year, it may experience a typical 'buy the rumor, sell the news' situation."

The US elections are an opportunity, not the risk you are worried about.

Many people are always afraid of Harris being elected, let me put it this way, whoever is elected will not affect the bull market.
Trump's election will just bring the bull market earlier. Harris's election will at most lead to a wave, and then continue to rise.

Got it? This is unchangeable, no matter who comes to power.

Pay more attention to doge, sol, sui, pepe.

Teach everyone a small trick for trading cryptocurrencies, I often do this
1. For strong coins, if they drop at a high position for 9 consecutive days, be sure to follow up in a timely manner.
2. For any coin, if it rises for two consecutive days, be sure to reduce your position in a timely manner.
3. For any coin, if it rises more than 7%, there is still a chance of further increase the next day, you can continue to observe.
4. For strong bull coins, be sure to wait until the pullback is over before entering the market.
5. For any coin, if it fluctuates quietly for three consecutive days, observe for another three days; if there is no change, consider switching.
6. For any coin, if it fails to recover the cost price from the previous day the next day, you should exit in a timely manner.

Many people have a misconception that whether it is speculation or value investing, as long as you enter during a bull market and escape at the peak, you can make money. I'm not in a romantic relationship; I just want to make money.
​There are many misconceptions in this:

1. Do you know whether you entered at a high or low position? Just take the current situation as an example; where did you buy the coins you hold?
2. The peak of altcoins and the peak of BTC are two different things. Many altcoins end with one wave, and while you are still fantasizing about a hundred times return, several have already been cut in half.
3. Even if the coin you bought can rise and is a value coin, the peak of it is very different from the peak of BTC. Most altcoins end months or even half a year earlier than BTC.
4. You cannot escape the peak at all; do not overestimate yourself. Did you escape the peak this time?

BTC will reach new highs in the future, potentially rising to over 120,000 within a year or two. Here are some optimistic assumptions:

1. Assuming Trump is elected, $doge will surge, and whales will focus solely on this.

2. With the surge of $doge, funds will rush into the meme sector.

3. Leading in the meme sector.

Large funds are paying attention to: $pepe, $bome, $wif, and other leading large-cap assets.

Medium-sized funds are focusing on on-chain cats and dogs, AI, religion, and other leading assets. The smaller the market cap, the easier it is to absorb external flow. #CryptoCircle #Blockchain #

Newly issued coins with a basic market this year, such as ENA and ETHFI, have broken through lows one after another, while old coins that have experienced multiple rounds of bull markets have retreated to the starting point of this bull market.

Even the so-called "mother of cottage" Yitai coin has fallen back to the price at the beginning of the year, which makes people wonder: Does cottage still have a chance?

The answer is yes! But this is not from the perspective of technical analysis, but from the perspective of trends and human nature. As the old saying goes: If you want to destroy it, make it crazy first.

However, since the last round of bear market, cottage coins have not shown the madness they should have. Whether it is new or old coins, dog dealers are always seeking profits.

Even in the recently hotly discussed meme coin track, those coins can always find players who take over at high positions even if they only rise for more than ten minutes.
#币圈##区块链#

If you want to do big business with a small amount of capital, here are a few tips:
1. Pick coins: follow the hot and strong coins, and don't touch those unpopular coins that no one pays attention to. Look for coins that have risen less than 7%, so that you can follow the pace of the big guys.
2. Trading cycle: short-term operation, just like fighting guerrilla warfare, enter and exit quickly, don't drag your feet.
3. Trend is king: don't be afraid because the price is high, or buy because the price is low, follow the trend, don't scare yourself.
4. Position management: The initial position is controlled at 20% to 30%. If the market is good, slowly increase the code, but don't add too much at a time. It should be like a pyramid, with a large bottom and a small top.
5. Moving average indicator: The 10-day moving average is the main operating line. When the price pulls back here but does not fall below, it is a good time to get on the bus.
6. Review: Remember to save transaction records and analyze the reasons for each loss, such as entering the market too early, being too nervous, holding for too long, and having too large a position, so that you can continue to improve.

November 2 Market Analysis

The positive news led to an increase in prices, reaching a peak of around 71,650. Subsequently, after the U.S. stock market opened, the news was digested and brought about a decline, with a lowest point of around 68,800.

From the current technical structure, the daily trend is showing a series of consecutive bearish candles, indicating a short-term weak trend. Yesterday's upward movement was influenced by positive non-farm payroll data; however, the impact of the news will only be temporary, and ultimately the market will return to the technical structure. The weak market may see slight rebounds, so it is advisable to maintain a bearish outlook! In the short term, the downward trend has paused and a rebound occurred; it is recommended to participate first in long positions and then short.

Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: 69,300-69,000 Long Target at 70,500
Ethereum: 2,500-2,480 Long Target at 2,560