The 2 most important events next week:
The fantasies of retail investors are:
- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉50%
- Trump elected, Bitcoin skyrockets 📈100,000
1. The results of the election on November 5th may be announced that night. Remember the last time Trump was elected, the market went from limit up to limit down, and many people were ruined in one day.
2. The interest rate meeting from November 6th to November 7th, if rates are cut, it could lead to a wave of increases. If not cut, it is likely to follow the original trend. According to non-farm data, this meeting is expected to cut by 25 basis points, but if these two events are combined, the situation becomes complicated and there may be a significant fluctuation.
The structure of this round of Bitcoin market is clear. Whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not disrupt the market structure. The operators are responsible for the market trend and maximizing their own interests, not for Trump or Harris.
Therefore, after the election results come out at noon on the 6th, the market's fluctuations may be far lower than most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of rate cuts, or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, etc.
The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, there will be a spike up/down. Then the market will continue to move as it should. The Bitcoin market structure has been formed through a series of actions over half a year of declines/oscillations/forced selling/accumulation, and will not be disrupted by any single event.
The benefit of the U.S. election for operators is that it can be used both positively and negatively, increasing volatility and market divergence, with stories to tell. The U.S. election is the most favorable tool for operators to tell stories after ETFs.