Normally, the rise and fall of the US dollar index and US stocks or the cryptocurrency circle should be opposite, but this September rate cut is very annoying, because a 25 basis point rate cut is considered a regular rate cut, which means that the US economy is still good, but a 50 basis point rate cut feels a bit like a recession.

So when the unemployment rate continued to rise, investors were actually a bit pessimistic, especially after the Sam rule was triggered, the US dollar index fell sharply, which is a kind of trading recession. Later, starting from yesterday's CPI data, it felt that the core CPI was still quite high, and inflation might still be quite troublesome, plus the fear of recession, so the expectation has been reduced from 50 to 25, but this reduction is due to the fear of inflation.

As of today, the retail data is good, and the manufacturing data is so-so, but it means that the possibility of a recession in the short term is lower, so the Fed does not need to aggressively enter a 50 basis point rate cut, which is relatively good for the US economy, so US stocks and#BTCand#ETHare all rising.

But because the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has been reduced, and there is no possibility of a short-term economic recession, the Fed will most likely not cut interest rates aggressively, so the dollar has begun to rebound.
#BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

Let's talk about the valuation method of the currency circle

My conclusion is that only things without benchmarks are good things. Why are the prices of many new coins on the market almost the same as after they are launched?

Because there are benchmark assets, for example, when STRK is launched, the market and FDV of ARB and OP can be used for benchmarking, and when ZK is launched, STRK can be used for benchmarking.

For example, the market value of TIA, which is known as the latest modular blockchain leader, is only a few billion at most, because it can still be benchmarked. How to play is also one of many expansion plans.

You will find that technology and data are getting more and more powerful and more beautiful, but the market value and valuation are getting lower and lower. ETH is not as good as BTC, but ETH is much better than BTC. SOL is not as good as ETH, but ETH's market value is much higher than SOL.

The core is that as long as you dare to say that I am surpassing and correcting someone, you will naturally have a tight ring on your head. Therefore, Cao Pi's value in the game can never exceed Cao Cao, but is Cao Pi really weaker than Cao Cao?

You will find that many people predict the engine of the next bull market, such as new DEFI, more fun GAMEFI, better prediction market, etc. If this is the case, the growth rate of the currency circle can only be lower and lower, and the narrative can only be more and more lacking.

Improved things are never interesting to the capital market. Only those that have never been seen, are brand new, imaginative, and have not yet verified their actual value are worth speculating.

So in this round, how many people have you heard of making a lot of money playing GAMEFI? How many people have made a lot of money playing DEFI? Only those who play Bitcoin ecology and MEME can make money.

In the currency circle, you must have capital thinking. There are many positive factors, but you must distinguish whether it is favored by capital and whether it is on the narrative point. Otherwise, you will become an old leeks who can neither make money nor lose money in minutes.
#BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

The Bank of Nasional (BoG) has proposed new digital asset regulatory measures following an extensive internal review of Bitcoin, USDT and other cryptocurrencies.

The Central Bank of Ghana has released draft guidance on digital assets and is seeking feedback from the public and industry stakeholders on upcoming cryptocurrency regulations.

According to the Bank of Ghana, data collected over the past three years shows a significant increase in demand for cryptocurrencies in Ghana.
#BTC走势预测

The preciousness of the main body of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, the delayed consequences, the provocation of a new round of cryptocurrency liquidation, the main body of large currencies, and the market of the big market.

The delayed consequences, the provocation of a new round of cryptocurrency liquidation, the main body of large currencies, and the market of the big market.
The price of Bitcoin is 3%, and the current price is $57.787. At the moment of restart, the price of Ethereum is $2.547, and the price is $2.547. The Coingecko data is as follows.

For a period of time, other major currencies such as Solana and Dogecoin can be used.

The price of Bitcoin is 3%, and the current price is $57.787. At the moment of restart, the price of Ethereum is $2.547, and the price is $2.547. The Coingecko data is as follows. For a period of time, other major currencies such as Solana and Dogecoin can be used.

In the last 24 hours, the liquidation results of the supermarket were $176 million, which led to an increase in the volatility of Coinglass, which in the last 24 hours was $98 million.

The value of Ethereum has reached $59 million and was liquidated before the end of the year, and the value of Bitcoin has reached $50 million.   The volatility of the increase in the last 24 hours, which in the last 24 hours was $98 million.

The value of Ethereum has reached $59 million and was liquidated before the end of the year, and the value of Bitcoin has reached $50 million.
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC☀

The reasons for the sharp drop in BTC in the past six months are as follows

Phase 2: August 1-5, 2024 (BTC fell by about 22%, Nasdaq fell by about 5%)

Why?

1. The US non-farm data was lower than expected, triggering the Sam rule and panic in the global market;

2. The Japanese central bank raised interest rates beyond expectations, the yen carry trade reversed, the liquidation led to market deleveraging, the exchange rate loss compressed overseas profits, and liquidity decreased;

#BTC☀ #比特币下跌分析

现在最让人担忧的不是比特币的下跌，而是几乎所有人都在看空美股，许多人认为美股即将崩盘。美债已经达到了令人震惊的水平，美国似乎无力偿还债务。不仅是网络上的言论，就连那些掌握着大量财富的“旧钱”也开始抛售他们手中的股票。

然而，最奇怪的是，如果你回顾这些看空言论的时间，短则几个月前，长则一两年前，早就有人开始预测美国经济即将崩溃，甚至提供了大量数据来支持他们的观点。但从纳斯达克和标普指数来看，它们却不断创下历史新高。这到底意味着什么？
#BTC走势预测 #比特币有助于解决美国国债危机

Analysis of the midday trading on August 16——#BTC☀ $BTC              
The market is the result of capital game, and news can only explain the market. For example, the good employment news last night caused the cryptocurrency market to fall, while the US stock market rose sharply, and the cryptocurrency market plunged in the early morning, catching Asians off guard.
Analyze the current market: The decline last night formed a structure. The long-term outlook is still volatile, but there are opportunities in the short term. If the volatility falls and breaks the low point again, it will be a good buying opportunity. Fast in and fast out cannot be a pattern

The prediction error of Dabingzi is a bit large, but the 15-minute wedge is not very accurate. The upward pullback is a little bit stronger, which may be affected by the news. It actually reached the high point I predicted and then started to hit a low point. The low point I predicted was around 56,800, but it hit 2.6w, which is in line with the prediction, so the error is a little bit larger.

Next, there will be a small-level pullback. In addition to touching the strong support, there is also a divergence at the hourly level, so pay attention to the strength of this pullback. The upper pressure line is around 5.92w. If you receive a long order, you can set a break-even or you can pocket it in batches. If you don’t get on the train, wait for the next opportunity!
#BTC☀ $BTC

BOB co-founder Alexei Zamyatin tweeted that Bitcoin scaling developers have released a new white paper on the second version of the Bitcoin virtual machine, BitVM2, and the updated BitVM Bridge.

The white paper details the latest achievements in improving transaction efficiency within the Bitcoin network by improving transaction processing capabilities and, in some cases, updating encryption methods.

The white paper states that the main goal of BitVM2 is to increase Bitcoin's transaction capacity without modifying Bitcoin's core code or principles such as decentralization. BitVM2 introduces a permissionless system that allows any user to question suspicious transactions.

In addition, the white paper mentions improvements to BitVM Bridge, focusing on reducing capital requirements and shortening asset lock-up periods, which support cross-chain between Bitcoin and Rollup.
#BTC☀ #美联储何时降息？

Merrill Lynch clock theory, deduced to the cryptocurrency circle:

1. 2020 is a recession period. The Fed cuts interest rates. After funds flow into the cryptocurrency circle, the market starts.

2. 2021 is a recovery period. Funds are still flowing into the cryptocurrency circle. The bull market has double peaks, at 69,000.

3. 2022 is an overheating period. The Fed begins to raise interest rates, and funds begin to flow out of the cryptocurrency circle, at 15,500.

4. 2023 is a period of stagflation. The Fed is still raising interest rates, funds are flowing out, and interest rate hikes are over.

5. 2024 is a recession period, and it is also the first year of the Lihuo Yun, ushering in interest rate cuts.

6. 2025 is a recovery period. Funds begin to flow into the cryptocurrency circle, and the pie peaks, at $150,000.
#BTC☀

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 1H
Chart cycle: 1H
Main trend: oscillating decline
Key support: 2520, 2400
Key resistance: 2620, 2660
-----------------------------------
Fall to 2513 before the low point rebound
Rebound potential pressure level 2620, 2660
If there is a weak fluctuation
Pay attention to the risk of continued decline
The next target is still the 2400 range

After the fall, KOLs began to reflect, and everyone began to withdraw from the circle.

According to this trend, the reflection in November should be even more intense. Those who withdrew are all unqualified speculators.

Did everyone come to build the crypto industry with dreams? Did everyone suddenly feel that the industry had hope when it was rising, and that they were not speculators but idealists?

An early financial market with huge volatility, here there is a fast and secure trading system, with blockchain as data guarantee and smart contracts to ensure execution. This is the most efficient financial market in human history, and this is the essence of the crypto industry.

As a financial industry practitioner, there is no control over risks, no expectations for fluctuations, and no preparation for price drops. So what kind of finance do you do?

After the fall and loss, they appeal to the meaning and say that this industry is meaningless. It seems that the meaning of blockchain has been falsified from the root, and their own incompetence has been relieved.

What is the meaning of the financial industry? What is the meaning of securities? Why do people price securities? 5% is due to financing needs, and 95% is due to speculation.

But it is speculators who form liquidity, drive debt cycles, and accelerate the application of technology through capital, and thus bear huge risks and losses.

Why is the Crypto+AI narrative so popular? Because Crypto is competing for the right to participate in the financial market through emerging technology industries.

Why is meme so popular? Because Crypto is pricing narratives and creating a narrative securities market. Ethereum is the largest narrative trading market on the chain, and may also be the largest narrative financial market in the world. This is the essence of meme.

If you can't understand these, then you will be happy when you make money and curse when you lose money. How can you grow? If you come in to try your luck when it rises, and if you lose money, you will quit the circle. How can you make money?

The crazy increase in Crypto in the early days brought a large number of people with mismatched cognition to the industry. These people will be eliminated in the violent shocks and declines. Don't be the one who is eliminated, whether in terms of funds or cognition.
#Crypto🚀🚀

US stocks surged yesterday, but Bitcoin fell all the way. I guess many people are confused~
It turns out that the US government transferred the previously secretly transferred coins to Coinbase yesterday, which is worth 600 million US dollars.
The US government is crashing the market again! ! !
Since Trump said at the Bitcoin Conference that he would not allow the US government to sell Bitcoin after his election, the US government rushed to sell Bitcoin before the election! ! ! It will continue to sell in the future, after all, there are more than 10 billion US dollars in Bitcoin!
#美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期

加密市场是个大染缸，唯独比特币不染纤尘。

因为它是孤独的王者，
所有的噪音都会淹没在一根根K线中。

下图红色区域是我们当前所在的位置，在这张图里，我们
在山腰处，距离浅黄的山顶区间，还有一段路要走。

累了就多歇歇，歇够了继续前行！

作为一个孤独的交易者，每一条上山的路都是孤独的，能陪你的只有大饼，它都没放弃，你要放弃吗？

享受孤独，享受旅途。
#加密市场
#BTC走势预测

不建议大家轻易尝试职业交易。
1、大部分人要想靠交易实现盈利，没有3年以上的沉淀与日复一日的坚持，很难实现稳定盈利，天才是极少数的，并且能够从零开始才是评判天才的唯一标准，大部分人是亏着亏着就没了，再负债，再退圈。

2、行情大部分时候都很无聊，并且不能盈利的。那些天天想在市场赚点零花钱的，往往会亏掉很多本金。但是职业交易持续一段时间没有收入，大部分人心态就会爆炸。

3、希望是解药，也是毒药。很多人小资金遇到行情滚上来很快，但是亏回去更快，但是一旦有了滚仓的希望，做交易的节奏永远慢不下来，理性只会被压制，然后一天时间就从浮盈到保本，再到亏损。

4、没有稳定的收入来源，会有一种与生俱来的没安全感，焦虑的状态肯定不能理性交易的，总想去赌一下。 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥
#Btcoin

根据 SoSoValue 数据，昨日（美东时间 8 月 15 日）比特币现货 ETF 总净流入 1111.16 万美元。昨日灰度（Grayscale）ETF GBTC 单日净流出 2503.28 万美元。灰度（Grayscale）比特币迷你信托 ETF BTC 单日净流入 1366.28 万美元。昨日单日净流入最多的比特币现货 ETF 为富达（Fidelity）ETF FBTC，单日净流入为 1624.69 万美元。
#etf以太坊

根据 CoinDesk 提供的信息，

通过链上调查发现 51 个疑似 Eigen Labs 员工地址，共领取了 487,933 枚 ETHFI、1,964,838 枚 ALT 和 1,335,090 枚 REZ，峰值价值合计超过 550 万美元。

这批地址对 ETHFI、ALT 和 REZ 空投的出售率都在约 40%。在所调查的结果与 CoinDesk 调查对比中，疑似 Eigen Labs 员工获得的 ETHFI 空投数量基本一致，ALT 相比更多，REZ 相比更少。

EigenLayer 早些时候表示，没有任何发现或证据表明 Eigen Labs 的任何员工向任何团队施加压力以获利，并指出其在 5 月就已经通过改变内部政策，消除了其员工在未来空投中出现任何激励失衡的情况。
#ALT再质押生态 #REZ #ETHFI🔥🔥🔥

每日大盘分析—— $ETH
参考周期为4H。目前价格跌到了箱体下边界之后发生反弹，当前还是以箱体震荡为主要思路，上涨目标依旧是箱体上边界。
上涨预期是建立在价格不跌破当前箱体下边界的，如果跌破了的话，不建议短期多单再继续拿住了。#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $ETH

刚刚公布的美国七月零售数据，1%的月率环比大幅超出预期和前值，核心零售月率也是超预期。

同时当周初申失业金人数低于前值和预期。也是很巧妙的数据，零售数据走强意味着美国经济还是很强势，加上略低的初申失业金进一步打消了衰退的担忧。

至少到下个月数据前、市场应该不会再纠结是否衰退的事情。也是之前一直说到的24年对美国经济的基准判断是可能某些指标会走弱但远不止于到衰退的地步。

再加上前两天的通胀数据，九月降息25个基点的概率大为增加，经济走强基本面强劲，通胀下行那么降息的节奏也会缓和。

之前说的未来一两年的有限度的宽松也成了基准情景了。
#美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期

2024.8.16币圈大事件
🌍

● 美国现货以太坊ETF昨日净流出3900万美元，美国现货比特币ETF昨日净流入1100万美元
● 鲍威尔将在下周五晚 上10:00来定调9月降息的窗口

● Web3 上市公司 DeFi Technologies 迄今持有价值约2120万美元的BTC、SOL和CORE

● Arthur Hayes 于 25 分钟前从 OKX 购入 1140 万枚 ATH，价值约合 77.9 万美元

● 美国政府今年分三次向Coinbase Prime转入15,940枚比特币，前两次均引发比特币下跌约5%

● 若比特币跌破至5.7万美元，主流CEX累计多单清算强度将达6.07亿

● 某巨鲸地址疑似7小时前从Galaxy Digital OTC处购买1474枚BTC

● 某用户买入9月底比特币63000美元看涨期权

● Marathon Digital两天时间购买了4,144枚BTC，价值2.49 亿美元，平均59,500美元

● Circle在Solana链新增铸造2.5亿枚USDC

● 加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至27，市场仍处于恐惧状态
#美国7月PPI低于预期 #TON