4h, continue to oscillate back and forth in a narrow track, bounce up a little

Low probability event: a strong support of 5.2w below. The probability of falling there is extremely low, 10%

High probability event: continue to oscillate back and forth in a narrow and flat track

Final direction: break upward, surpass the previous high, and start a bull market rise

1h, rebound to the middle track, open but not closed, moving average downward

Ideal script: rub for a while at the middle track, then break upward $$$$$$$$$$, and fall back + oscillate after the breakthrough. Probability 30%

Conventional script: oscillate, between the middle track and 6.18w, oscillate for a while, and then choose a direction. Probability 60%

Worst script: fall back, and then fall below the previous low of 5.8w. Probability 10%

15m is outside the upper track; 5m has entered the track; 1m has closed and oscillated flatly

So, the next step is likely to be oscillation

Strategy: 1m upper and lower rails for oscillation
$BTC #币安合约锦标赛 #BTC☀

#BTC #ETF
My views on the adoption of ETFs and subsequent trends:
First of all, I think passing is a high probability event. This is just my opinion. Nowadays, there are quite a few people who say they will not pass.

Assumptions:
Everyone is paying attention to ETFs
Everyone has placed their bets.
Everyone knows the so-called "good things are bad when they are cashed in"

In a market where everyone knows where the market will go, how exactly will the market go?
This is a very interesting question.
So what exactly will the trend be?

The moment the news is announced, prices will rise quickly. It is recognized that 5w is the limit
Because short sellers want to close their positions. Of course, there may also be people who buy in hindsight, and these people may be at risk of being trapped on the hill.

After the upward surge, there will be a decline after the "good news is realized". This kind of drop is more likely to be a negative drop.

There is another possibility, if everyone's expectations have been priced in now. Then there may not be such big fluctuations after the results are announced. What traders trade is the "expected difference". If there is no expected difference, there will be no big fluctuations. $BTC

#BTC #etf #BTC现货ETF
I forgot where I saw that ETF was announced last night
As a result, after waiting all night, the world was silent
I read the news today and it said it will be announced on the 10th.
Tomorrow after tomorrow

The drama of the ETF passing is really like watching the hot searches on Weibo
The plot keeps reversing
But the people in the currency circle are not the melon-eating people on Weibo.
Traders bet with real money
A reversal and the money is gone. Another reversal, and the money is gone again. Who can bear this?
🤣

There is support at 4w, see the red horizontal line. The descending triangle reaches near the horizontal line many times without breaking.
This horizontal line basically coincides with the daily Bollinger upper track. When you reach the upper track, there will be support.
Let's see if it falls below.

On the 4h chart, the price is running in the green descending channel. If it falls below the 4w level, then the next support is the super intensive trading area in front of around 3.8w. By the time the descending channel intersected the 3.8w level, it was Christmas Day.

What a perfect script. It’s too neat~

The greed index has dropped slightly. It's a good thing.
If everyone is calmer, it may not fall to 3.8w, and it will usher in the next rise after a month of fluctuations. This makes everyone happy. Why do you have to jump in and play with heartbeats, right?
#BTC🔥🔥 #etf #一起来跟单 #合约锦标赛 #圣诞行情 $BTC

Figure 1h shows repeated friction on the Bollinger rail.
It was just a tumble, a tumble. A sharp drop is coming soon.

It’s not that you can’t hold a position if you’re dead long, just be careful.
For those who are bullish, the rational choice is to wait with a short position.
If you can't help but be short, wait for the harvest, don't be too greedy.

I used to be a dead bull, but now I have learned to be more flexible.
But the correct general principle is that if you are bullish on the general direction, only go long. Just don't do it when it falls.
Operating against the general trend is actually quite dangerous.

The Federal Reserve's discussion of interest rate cuts came earlier than expected.
Looking at it this way, the issue of liquidity is no longer an issue.
Then, for the currency circle, a market that is most sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity, good times are very close.
Therefore, there are many opportunities to make money, and there will be more and more in the future.
Enjoy the new bull market. #币安合约锦标赛 #BTC #etf #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全 $BTC

The Fed announced this week that it will not raise interest rates
The market has also risen
It made me feel embarrassed holding an empty order.

But look at this rise
It stagnated before rising above the previous high platform.
Indicators divergence, trend convergence

Be careful when holding empty orders.
But not ready to end it yet
Still prefer to look at callbacks

The market has already priced in no interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts, and the increase in interest rates announced this time is only a short-term impact.
It has already been fully priced, how can it increase later?
If it is really too loose, it’s time for the Fed to step out and play hawks

So, the first smart option is to go short and wait for a pullback
For those like me who can't control it, you can still take small short orders. Just observe more and cut if something goes wrong. If you wait until there is a wave of decline, you should also close $BTC when you see a good situation.
#币安合约锦标赛 #一起来跟单 #BTC🔥🔥

#BTC🔥🔥 #BTC #币安合约锦标赛 #一起来跟单 #美联储降息
When I saw it during the day today, I saw that it had actually fallen! The timing is perfect! Good luck
All long orders were closed at 4.2w

It fell sharply to the 1h Bollinger Band and rebounded quickly.
There is a high probability that it will dip again later. First of all, a second dip is necessary. There is a high probability that it will fall even more in the future.
The first target is 3.8w. It is the intensive trading area ahead, and it is also the upper track of daily Bollinger.

I was hesitating about short selling last night. I was wondering if short selling in the context of the bull market was playing with fire.
However, today I still played with fire
Opened a small short order of 0.5 times. Opened a position at 4.2w, and set a take profit of 3.8w

Human nature can never be eliminated, and transactions are always full of random transactions
At least if you can control your position and don't get too high, that's good enough... just keep practicing.

This Thursday is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The market is overly optimistic and has already been trading for interest rate cuts in advance. The time for interest rate cuts is far from coming.
The market expectations were too high. If there is any disturbance, it will be a big shock.
The pie is falling today. Is this an early reaction? Is it respectful to be the first to fall? $BTC $ETH

Life has been busy for a month, and I haven't had time to pay attention to the market.

During this period, Bitcoin rose again, reaching 44,000. It feels really good to let it go and let its balance increase.

Of course, we cannot be blindly optimistic. This is self-cultivation as an old leek.

I'm thinking about closing my position.

I haven’t watched any information or news for a month. As soon as I opened various information websites, a lot of things came into view.

CZ was accused and Binance was fined. Some people say that this is the landing of regulatory boots, which is conducive to the subsequent development of the market and the issuance of ETFs.

Arthur Hayes was asked on the podcast what he thought of this cycle.

Looking back on the last bull market, after Bitcoin rose to new highs, market optimism spread. How many big Vs have vowed that this bull market is different and will not be a four-year cycle. Bitcoin has entered an institutional bull and sustained long-term bull market.

Everyone knows what happened next.

Every time someone says "this time it's different" but it's the same every time.

So, what about this bull market? Still the same?

The institutional bulls that have been talked about since the last bull market have really ushered in the possible approval of BlackRock’s spot ETF application in this bull market. Since 2013, some people have said that artificial intelligence will pose a threat to the blockchain. This year, some people have said that the new narrative may be the combination of artificial intelligence and Bitcoin. The narrative of each bull market is different and the tipping point is different. Some old stories are still being told, and new stories are also being brewed.

It can only be said that when the cycle comes, the market needs a narrative.

The process of more and more people believing in this narrative and joining in is the process of market rising.

When the market is buzzing with people and everyone is overly optimistic and believes that it will keep rising, risks are accumulating.

If you ask me, will the four-year cycle repeat itself? Will we enter an eternal bull market? I have no idea.

However, the most important thing that an old leek learns after being rubbed enough in the market is to always stay awake and in awe.

A tumultuous week.
It fell below 3.5w and suddenly pulled back last night.

This pull brings back the light.
It couldn't get over the previous high, the indicator deviated, and it went down again in 1 hour.

Not that it will plummet. However, the continuous rise was blocked.

At a high level in the morning, I closed the position I added last week.
The original warehouse is still there. The leverage is very low, so there is nothing to worry about.

Do you think it will rise sharply after closing the position?
Every time we get to a key position, we have to think about it, whether it is a draw or a draw.

Trading is the art of regret.
In order to have both peace and prosperity in this world, there must always be giving and gaining. #etf #BTC #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全

On the night of the 9th, btc and eth had different rhythms.

BTC fell rapidly when it reached 3.8w, and its holdings fell off a cliff. A big wave of liquidation is coming

The price of eth is strong. In the past period of time, eth has been relatively weak compared to btc, but it has finally caught up.

eth just hit the daily Bollinger upper track, and there was a significant correction in the next few days. Therefore, the callback will still come if it should come.

The advantage is that the callback shrinks

The upper track of the daily Bollinger is also just at the previous high point.

Whether it is the big liquidation of Bitcoin or the double resistance level of ETH, it shows that there is resistance here.

But the good thing is that in the past few days, whether it is BTC or eth, the price has held up without a deep correction.

The ideal situation is to hold the price, adjust in a choppy manner, and then start the next uptrend. #etf #BTC #ETH #一起来跟单 #合约
$BTC $ETH

I have to say that I guessed it right again this time. The so-called market sense is a very mysterious thing. After watching the market for many years, you will have some sense of the trend, but it is very subtle, and it is impossible to read it accurately every time.

Bitcoin is starting to rise. Can you pass the 38,000~39,000 level? Of course I hope it passes. My "feeling" is that it will pass.
The next target is 45,000.

Open interest continues to accumulate, price rises and volume increases, both trading volume and open interest increase. Maybe we can actually have a good rise.
And after that? Maybe it’s a big purge.

My position has always been low and I have never taken a position. So I even want to increase my position.
For friends with relatively high leverage, you can consider a small take-profit at 38,000~39,000. If you want to hold it for a longer period, it’s okay to hold it all the time.

Seeing the slight increase in book profits finally eased my unbalanced mentality of coveting small coins.
But the small coins are still crazy. Think about small currency strategies.
#BTC #etf #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全 $BTC

There is a feeling that Bitcoin is about to break through.

From the 1h small structure point of view, in the previous shocks, the callback duration was larger than the upward spurt.
Today is a rise with volume, and adjustment is shrinking. Open interest has also been increasing.
Of course, we only look at Binance’s perpetual volume.

The big cycle is stuck on the upper Bollinger track. A posture of taking off.

Big Pie is lying sideways like this, watching Xiao Coin going crazy every day. What the hell is ORDI more than doubled?
It feels like I’m missing out on 100 million every day.
#BTC #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全

#BTC #sol #etf #ARB #sei $BTC $ETH $BNB The market seems to be stationary again. The longer the market goes sideways, the more panicked it becomes and the lower the possibility of rising.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the daily line is still on the upper track. The 4-hour line has gone sideways to the track line. The 1-hour line has gone sideways to the track line, and the track has begun to close.

If the next wave of rise does not start, then the best situation is that it will fluctuate within the 1-hour track.

Short-term players can sell high and buy low. If short-term players watch the 15min and 5m tracks and sell high and buy low, they should have been doing it for several days.

There is an explosion of small coins every day. If the big pie is horizontal, the small coins will have a stage to perform.

#BTC
Let’s continue to talk about the psychological traits needed to make money in the currency circle.

2. The goal is clear and specific.
There are too many ways to play in the currency circle. It’s also a place with few barriers.
When I came here, I saw opportunities everywhere, and the flowers became more and more charming.
Things with a low threshold often require a lot of effort to do well, and you need to be better than many people.
Therefore, it is not easy for most people to specialize in one field and do one thing well.

3. Willingness to learn.
The currency circle is a new thing, and new technologies, applications, and gameplay are being produced every day. Updates and iterations are too fast.
If you don’t study, you will definitely not survive one episode.
If you think that you can make money along the way, or if you listen to people calling for orders and ask about which currency can rise, I'm afraid you can only go in the opposite direction.
The money you earn through your own abilities is truly yours.
Don't people often say: The money earned by luck will be lost sooner or later by strength. This sounds joking, but it's true.

4. The courage to take risks.
Humans are inherently risk averse. This explains why many people end their floating profits prematurely and hang on to their floating losses.
Speculation is a matter of dancing with risks. If you want to wear a crown, you must bear its weight. If you want to get big profits, you must face high risks.
But that doesn’t mean it’s enough to just have a heart that dares to take risks. You must learn to manage risk and calculate how much risk you need to take. Can you bear this risk? Speculation requires not only taking risks, but also being able to calculate.

5. The ability to self-reflect.
How many people will blame others and others when they encounter setbacks and failures?
Looking for excuses from the outside is the most natural reaction for people.
But the market doesn't listen to you.
In front of the market, everyone is small and insignificant. The financial market is a place where people can understand better. Don't make excuses when encountering problems, because it will be useless if you do.
The only thing that is useful is self-reflection, constantly reflecting on your strengths and weaknesses, abilities and shortcomings, and looking for ways to improve. $BTC

Last night, the correlation between Bitcoin and the trend of US stocks was relatively strong.

The small fluctuations after 8 o'clock in the evening are earlier than those of US stocks, but the fluctuations after 3 o'clock are later than those of US stocks.

The good thing is that it broke through the previous small shock convergence triangle. The bad thing is that this time I touched the sharp peak of 3.58w in the previous wave again, but it didn't pass.

This increase is rather questionable.

Bollinger's opening in 4 hours was too big, even bigger than the big plunge in May 21. The short-term deviation is a bit large.

If you already hold multiple orders, just grab them.

If there is no order that wants to enter the market here, it is better to observe the market and enter if the volume exceeds the previous high point.
#BTC #etf #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全 #加息 $BTC

#BTC #交易心理 #积极心态 #etf #sbf
One of the great things about the currency circle is that it is a place where you can talk about money openly. Everyone comes to the currency circle just to make money quickly.

But making money is not enough with a strong heart.
If you want to make money, you must first make money.

If you want to make money, you first need to have a positive and optimistic attitude.

My teacher always said: Pessimists are often right, but optimists make money.

When Bitcoin fell below 20,000 and formed a bottom, how many people shouted that it would go to 10,000, 8,000, or even zero?

When the economy is very bad, how many people become discouraged and take all the pills, close their accounts, and give up on themselves?

People often talk about Buffett's "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful", but how many people can maintain a calm mind and stay positive in the moment of panic?

Being positive has another meaning: having confidence in yourself.

Everyone who has been in the currency circle has experienced strong winds and waves, and probably most of them have suffered losses and suffered pitfalls. Cutting off in half is a trivial matter, and there are many who have cut off their losses and are even in debt.

In such an ups and downs market, after encountering setbacks, do you slump or do you believe that you will one day be able to turn around and achieve the goal you came here for?

Now that the currency circle has reached the beginning of a new round of bull market, various good things have begun to appear. The U.S. interest rate hike is almost completed. The heavy expectations of spot ETFs give market participants great psychological support and are long-term positive for market capital inflows. , the ftx incident also ushered in a turning point. There began to be a breath of recovery in the air.

Good times are not far ahead. Those who fail to wait until the bear market ends and give up in the darkness before dawn will have no chance of victory after all.

Destiny, destiny, people's fate is their own destiny. Only those who believe they can do it can finally do it. If you give up halfway, you will never reach your destination.

$BTC
I haven’t written any analysis for a week.
Bitcoin has been really strong this week, with a sharp rise at the beginning of the week.
A positive line changes the three views, whether it is the actual profit of the holder or the panic index reflecting the emotion, it all changes from bear to bull.
It has been almost a week, and the market has been trading sideways after a sharp rise.
The daily line is rubbing against the Bollinger upper track; the 4h is horizontal outside the track; the 1h is already crossing the track; the short-term 15m Bollinger has already closed and moved in a narrow range.

It was too early to close the position last time. Fortunately, only a small part of the position was closed. It doesn't matter.
Over the weekend, the market price increased by 0.3 times more orders. I placed an order at 3.3w.
My mentality has always been very calm, with no urge to chase highs or the annoyance of being short. It's very peaceful.
In the past, if I saw the market rising, I would have been unable to control myself and place an order in a hurry. Even a few weeks ago, there was a time to open a position chasing highs.
This time, the mentality is very stable. You must wait until there is a correction, a low position, or a safe position before taking a position.

Next script:
Script 1: Continue to rise again, to 3.6-3.8w. At that time, part of the position can be closed.
Script 2: If the callback falls below 3.2w, you can also take part of the profit.
Script 3: End the rise and return to the bear market. Basically unlikely to happen.

Of course, I hope I can follow script 1, which is a very likely move at present. After all, the U.S. stock market has been so miserable this week, but the currency circle is prosperous, and the strength is likely to continue. Furthermore, expectations for spot ETFs are still there and attracting much attention, which can continue to support the upward trend of the currency market.
I saw the news about SBF every day this week, and also talked about FTX selling coins to repay investors, and whether FTX would open up again. It is indeed a good time to choose to sell coins under this market condition. Even if a powerful seller appears, it will not have an impact on the market, and many people may not even care about it. When a bull market comes, everything that is bad is good. When a bear market comes, all good things are bad.

But, remember, don’t get too carried away. You will have to suffer from the top.
#BTC #fomo #etf #sbf #一起来跟单

My hands are itchy and I want to operate.
So the long order of the pie was flattened by one-third. This rate of return is fine.
The reason is that when it reaches the tip of the big needle in front, I bet it won't be able to pass.
Yesterday I saw someone doing short selling at this position and betting on a slight correction. I think it makes sense. But I thought about it and still didn’t do it. Under the bull market tone, it is better to be long. Short sellers are afraid of being beaten if they don’t keep track of the market in time.

How can you learn to trade? This problem has bothered me for several years.
Now I find that when the focus on gains and losses is not so heavy, placing orders feels much easier.
Technical analysis is actually not difficult at all and anyone can learn it quickly. What is difficult is some ways of thinking. What is difficult is relaxing your mind and calming your desires.
#BTC #注意资金安全 #交易心理 $BTC

$BTC $ETH $BNB has nothing to say about the market. It is indeed like the script I wrote the day before yesterday, it continues to tremble.
Funds are flowing out, positions are rising again, and the weekend is approaching again.
When doing short-term trading on weekends, beware of sharp drops. In fact, there is no need to trade on weekends when doing short-term trading.
Of course, it is also possible that there will be a sharp rise, which will explode the remaining and new shorts. I like it better this way.
Not much else. The overall pattern remains unchanged. Still bullish.
————————
Trading is really a test of patience. When the market is low, there is really nothing to do.
Go study, do something else, go play. Don't be too concerned about the market situation.
#BTC #ETH #Binance #注意资金安全