Not many people play options on Binance. Binance options liquidity will only skyrocket when the market is good. When it plummets, unless the market has passed, try not to cut the flesh.

Options are about betting on probability. Time and buying price are a good dimension. I have not bought altcoins. Recently, I have been buying call options. The account has slowly increased from 500 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 5,000 US dollars. I hope it will increase this month. to ten thousand dollars.

My exposure to options trading started in 2021 with the U.S. stock market. After the U.S. stock market plummeted, I liquidated my positions in the U.S. stocks. I started buying Ethereum options continuously in October 2023. The liquidity of Ethereum options was too poor, so I focused on Bitcoin options trading from the end of 2023. I have played the contract several times, and it plummeted every time. It is not suitable for me. It is too volatile and easy to lose principal, so I will focus on options and altcoin defi trading in the future.

This call option with a target price of US$47,000 expired on April 26. I sold it during the Spring Festival. I can earn an extra US$2,000-3,000 now. It is a pity, but I bought it during the period of whether the Bitcoin spot ETF passed the approval period. I lost all the call options worth more than 2,000 U.S. dollars. I was afraid of losing money but I still closed when the gains were good. I only made less than 1,000 U.S. dollars.

I am firmly optimistic about Bitcoin. Options trading is highly volatile. It is better to sell when you are making money than to lose money. However, it is unbearable to sell an option too early and miss thousands of dollars in profits. I still cannot judge and cannot afford to lose. Haha, the biggest disadvantage of poor people’s investment is to sell assets that can continue to grow too early. According to stock trader Jesse Livermore, once it rises, it is likely to continue to hit new highs. This is the recent trend of Bitcoin.

After Grayscale Fund sold a large amount of money before the Spring Festival, Bitcoin once fell to 38,000 US dollars. Just one month later, Bitcoin basically doubled. If you had bought 2 call options with a target price of 38,000 US dollars at that time, you could basically make a profit. The cost of one Bitcoin is only about 10,000 US dollars, and the rate of return can reach more than 500%. This is the leverage effect of options trading. Let's play with options, not contracts.

#热门话题 #BTC #内容挖矿

Bitcoin has gone crazy. Thanks to Bitcoin, I didn’t buy any altcoins, only call options.

Whether to sell or not to sell is also a question. I opened several options against Ethereum and lost money. I reopened a bearish target price of US$3,100. Bitcoin has been buying call options. I missed out on altcoins, but the option returns were good, and I made more than $3,000.

The $1,500 call option fails to judge the market and is too optimistic. When the profit is $3,000, you should reduce your position, let alone increase your position at a high point. Dare to miss it and don't lose money.

The loss this time was mainly due to a misjudgment in the middle. I added positions at US$47,000 twice. The market subsequently fell to US$38,000, and the options became useless paper.

I re-purchased call options at the lowest point of 40,000 US dollars. The option selection is more reasonable and I am currently slightly profitable. You can buy up to 0.5 subsequent options, which are divided into two price ranges. The exercise price and expiration date should be reasonable, 2 months, 4 months, 3 months, or 6 months. When there is a sharp increase, you must reduce your position to reduce the profit return. Don’t be FOMO about the risk of withdrawal. You would rather miss it than keep your principal.

#期权交易 #BTC

Update on February 11, 2024: Bitcoin call options have basically paid back their money.

Should I sell this option, I don’t know if it will plummet.

After Binance launched the web3 wallet and supported Inscription trading, the most hurtful thing was OK. I originally thought that relying on Inscription could change the pattern of the trading market, but now it has been surpassed by Binance without showing off. #内容挖矿

After Meta announced a $50 billion buyback, its stock price rose 15% after hours, quarterly profits more than tripled, and it announced its first dividend and a $50 billion stock buyback.

In order to increase the stock price, Meta has come up with two major strategies, dividends and buybacks. In fact, Meta also bought back last year, and Apple is also constantly buying back shares. This shows that these companies cannot find their future and dare not spend money. Repurchasing stocks, after all, shareholders are not afraid of high stock prices, but are afraid that they will not rise.

Apple repurchased US$90 billion last year and continued to drive up its stock price. If CEOs in the United States want to obtain excess returns, raising prices is probably the only option. After all, most CEOs' main compensation comes from stocks. Recently, Musk has been complaining about the issue of control. Mainly because he feels that Tesla has contributed a lot of new businesses, which will be unlimited in the future, such as humanoid robots, cybertrucks, etc., but his shares only account for 13%. This time Tesla A Washington state court declared Musk's $55 billion share award invalid, forcing him to return his shares. Lao Ma is most afraid of losing control. He keeps spreading the news and saying that if he loses control of Tesla, he will sell out of Tesla shares and start a new business.

Xiao Zha fully controls Meta through AB shares. Although the company shares he holds are similar to Lao Ma, Xiao Zha arranged AB shares in advance. He has about 53% of the total voting rights and has absolute control over Meta. This The point is what Lao Ma envies most, that is, Xiao Zha's descendants can control Meta forever, so they use cash to buy back stocks, and Xiao Zha himself is one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Two years ago, Xiao Zha announced All in Metaverse, but it suffered a huge loss. The company laid off more than 10,000 people. At present, Metaverse is still too far away from making money. In the second half of last year, Xiao Zha announced All in AI, but there is still time for AI products to truly make money. There is a long way to go. In order to stabilize the stock price, Xiao Zha also spent all his money.

The three major U.S. technology companies have been bearish for a long time. Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are operating counter-cyclically. We continue to be optimistic about Microsoft.

Buffett has been continuously repurchasing Berkshire Hathaway's shares in the past two years. Hathaway has a lot of cash on its books, as much as hundreds of billions of dollars. However, Buffett did not buy the bottom of U.S. stocks. The main reason is that he feels that the current U.S. economic outlook is not good, so investment The risk is very high. Instead of doing this, it is better to repurchase the company's shares. I remember Buffett said this:

Warren Buffett: By far the best investment is in yourself. **For example, a person’s communication skills. I tell those students that when they graduate and walk out of campus, the business courses, various formulas, and other things they learned on campus, (are not enough). If you can learn communication skills including interpersonal and written aspects, the value can be increased by at least 50%.

From the above paragraph, it is not difficult to see the reason why Buffett keeps repurchasing shares of Hathaway. In fact, it is very simple. There is no better investment target in the market. Instead of buying stocks with no potential, it is better to repurchase the shares of his own company. . Maybe, deep down in his heart, Buffett thinks that U.S. stocks are not worth buying now. After all, stocks without huge potential in his capital have no meaning to him. U.S. stocks have been at high levels in recent years, so he may still be waiting for opportunities. I'm thinking that Buffett, who is over 90 years old, can still patiently wait for opportunities and choose investment targets carefully. This is not something ordinary people can do.

Facebook has been beaten to a pulp by TikTok, and Amazon is also facing constant challenges from Temu. Unless they can convince the US government to use the power of the state to ban TikTok and Temu, Meta and Amazon will definitely not be able to defeat TikTok and Temu in the long run. Chinese company.

Google advertising mainly comes from search, and the chatgpt generative question and answer service is the gravedigger of search. In the future, Google’s search advertising business will gradually collapse. The gears of fate have begun. Google’s current growth is just inertia.

U.S. economy enters recession, UPS lays off 12,000 employees, optimistic about Bitcoin and U.S. housing market

Recent U.S. layoff news

On January 30, local time, United Parcel Service (UPS) announced that it would lay off 12,000 people. **A company spokesman said the layoffs will save the company approximately $1 billion in costs. The company's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings report showed a decline in both international and domestic shipments. In the last three months of 2023, the company's net profit was US$1.61 billion, or US$1.87 per share. Net profit for the same period last year was US$3.45 billion, or US$3.96 per share.

Paypal announced it would lay off 2,500 people, and Zoom announced it would lay off 150 people on the same day.
Microsoft announced last week it would lay off 1,900 people, mostly in its Blizzard gaming division.

According to tracking by the American layoff website, almost all Internet giants in the United States are currently laying off employees, including Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, etc.

From high-tech workers will spread to restaurants, logistics industry

The job market remains one of the main engines of the U.S. economy, with U.S. unemployment near a 50-year low and wages finally outpacing inflation. At the same time, major companies in key industries such as technology, finance, and media have recently announced large-scale layoffs, with the number of layoffs nationwide more than doubling month-on-month in January.

After the American middle class loses a large number of jobs, unemployment will inevitably spread to blue-collar industries including restaurants, logistics, etc. The recent UPS layoffs directly prove that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. Although the unemployment rate is still low and a large number of people are working part-time jobs, which is also recorded in the employment rate, this level of employment and income is not enough to support the U.S. economy further. increase.

Will the Fed cut interest rates in March?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said that the Fed's interest rate cut in March is "not the base case", that is, there will be no interest rate cut in March, but it is hard to say. The current economic situation is very difficult for Biden. Judging from the current situation, Biden The challenge of re-election is very high. He must solve economic problems and increase his campaign chips.

This time last year, many banks such as Silicon Valley Galaxy and Signature Galaxy in the United States collapsed. The Federal Reserve decisively took action to save the US banking industry. However, if interest rates are not lowered, problems will still arise in the banks.

Bitcoin vs USD

The U.S. dollar is still very strong despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. If it continues to raise interest rates or maintains the current interest rate level, banks will definitely have problems. We can imagine that after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the U.S. housing market will continue to rise, and Bitcoin will also rise, because the U.S. dollar will not It’s valuable. The U.S. dollar interest rate hike this time can only loot existing countries such as Japan, Germany, Latin America, etc., and cannot purchase RMB. At present, the country has not really entered into easing and quantitative easing. In addition, the Middle East oil has begun to de-dollarize. This acquisition by the United States has reached its peak. In the future An interest rate cut is increasingly likely. Bitcoin is optimistically expected to reach US$60,000 this year. A large amount of money has nowhere to go, except the housing market, which is Bitcoin. The future is promising! If we have a little imagination, Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in the second half of the year. If the U.S. economy collapses, the stock market plummets, and banks fail, then Bitcoin will go even higher as safe-haven funds can only flood into the cryptocurrency market.

Continue to be optimistic about the U.S. housing market and Bitcoin. For Bitcoin, you can consider buying call options expiring in June or September. The target price is 50,000. I plan to buy 1 lot. The current cost is still relatively high and has just risen recently.

I bought two call options on October 10th. Time has changed the situation and brought profits. Thank you to the currency circle.

The real reason for the plunge is that the lawsuit between the United States and a certain exchange has not been settled. If it is sanctioned, the entire currency circle will be over.

The two call options I bought recently, among which the et1750 call option was bought on June 15th, caught up with the plummeting eth, and the expiration date is June 23, which is tomorrow. Today, eth has skyrocketed, but it is a pity that I sold it yesterday and made less money. The price is about 10 times higher. I bought the call option on eth2100 in May. The option plummeted in early June and I have been losing money. Fortunately, it only expired on July 28, so there is still time.

I bought about 20 eth 2600 call options before, which expired at the end of July. After the sharp decline in early June, it was difficult to break through 2600 at the end of July. I have closed the position and lost a few hundred U. It is more stable than playing with contracts, but options have to wait and cannot be frequent. In trading, there may only be one or two opportunities to buy or sell a month. Most of the time, you just have to wait for the market trend, which is quite painful and slower than the contract.

The call option bought yesterday is ready to be closed today.

A call option expiring tomorrow, to be honest, may still fall, but the cost of buying a put option now is too expensive

Where will eth fall? I can't hold the spot anymore. I can't see the market clearly today, so I might as well take half an option. It means it will fall below 1,500.

Three more doomsday options have been opened. They have been fluctuating recently. To be honest, the options are not easy to buy.