U.S. economy enters recession, UPS lays off 12,000 employees, optimistic about Bitcoin and U.S. housing market

Recent U.S. layoff news

On January 30, local time, United Parcel Service (UPS) announced that it would lay off 12,000 people. **A company spokesman said the layoffs will save the company approximately $1 billion in costs. The company's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings report showed a decline in both international and domestic shipments. In the last three months of 2023, the company's net profit was US$1.61 billion, or US$1.87 per share. Net profit for the same period last year was US$3.45 billion, or US$3.96 per share.

Paypal announced it would lay off 2,500 people, and Zoom announced it would lay off 150 people on the same day.

Microsoft announced last week it would lay off 1,900 people, mostly in its Blizzard gaming division.

According to tracking by the American layoff website, almost all Internet giants in the United States are currently laying off employees, including Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, etc.

From high-tech workers will spread to restaurants, logistics industry

The job market remains one of the main engines of the U.S. economy, with U.S. unemployment near a 50-year low and wages finally outpacing inflation. At the same time, major companies in key industries such as technology, finance, and media have recently announced large-scale layoffs, with the number of layoffs nationwide more than doubling month-on-month in January.

After the American middle class loses a large number of jobs, unemployment will inevitably spread to blue-collar industries including restaurants, logistics, etc. The recent UPS layoffs directly prove that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. Although the unemployment rate is still low and a large number of people are working part-time jobs, which is also recorded in the employment rate, this level of employment and income is not enough to support the U.S. economy further. increase.

Will the Fed cut interest rates in March?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said that the Fed's interest rate cut in March is "not the base case", that is, there will be no interest rate cut in March, but it is hard to say. The current economic situation is very difficult for Biden. Judging from the current situation, Biden The challenge of re-election is very high. He must solve economic problems and increase his campaign chips.

This time last year, many banks such as Silicon Valley Galaxy and Signature Galaxy in the United States collapsed. The Federal Reserve decisively took action to save the US banking industry. However, if interest rates are not lowered, problems will still arise in the banks.

Bitcoin vs USD

The U.S. dollar is still very strong despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. If it continues to raise interest rates or maintains the current interest rate level, banks will definitely have problems. We can imagine that after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the U.S. housing market will continue to rise, and Bitcoin will also rise, because the U.S. dollar will not It’s valuable. The U.S. dollar interest rate hike this time can only loot existing countries such as Japan, Germany, Latin America, etc., and cannot purchase RMB. At present, the country has not really entered into easing and quantitative easing. In addition, the Middle East oil has begun to de-dollarize. This acquisition by the United States has reached its peak. In the future An interest rate cut is increasingly likely. Bitcoin is optimistically expected to reach US$60,000 this year. A large amount of money has nowhere to go, except the housing market, which is Bitcoin. The future is promising! If we have a little imagination, Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in the second half of the year. If the U.S. economy collapses, the stock market plummets, and banks fail, then Bitcoin will go even higher as safe-haven funds can only flood into the cryptocurrency market.

Continue to be optimistic about the U.S. housing market and Bitcoin. For Bitcoin, you can consider buying call options expiring in June or September. The target price is 50,000. I plan to buy 1 lot. The current cost is still relatively high and has just risen recently.