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军师九天
@npky666
九天，资深分析师、实战派，原XX证券高级分析师。十许年股票、期货、金汇币市等领域实战经验。独创的九天战法和天机交易系统，无论在日内超短交易上，还是中长线的波段趋势把握上，表现都极为惊艳！目前半退休状态，佛系投资，看心情分析，欢迎关注！推特：
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Let's talk about Usual
Viewpoint: usual is seriously underestimated! #USUAL
Reasons: 1. Pre-market trading ~ Binance purchase restrictions, which temporarily prevented institutions and large investors from making large-scale investments
2. The vast majority (99.9%) of investors did not read its white paper carefully, resulting in fatal misjudgments in market value and valuation.
We know that the maximum supply of Usual is 4b. Many cautious investors are used to using the total amount to evaluate the long-term investment value of a project, which is fine. But using the total amount to estimate Usual is obviously a major mistake.
Why❓——Because the release of usual is not linearly released according to time, it is supplied and destroyed according to TVL, and TVL determines the fundamental income of the protocol. If TVL increases, usual will be released, and if TVL decreases, it will be destroyed instead. Therefore, it is obviously absurd to use total supply for valuation, but only based on current TVL (income)!
Reasons: 1. Pre-market trading ~ Binance purchase restrictions, which temporarily prevented institutions and large investors from making large-scale investments
2. The vast majority (99.9%) of investors did not read its white paper carefully, resulting in fatal misjudgments in market value and valuation.
We know that the maximum supply of Usual is 4b. Many cautious investors are used to using the total amount to evaluate the long-term investment value of a project, which is fine. But using the total amount to estimate Usual is obviously a major mistake.
Why❓——Because the release of usual is not linearly released according to time, it is supplied and destroyed according to TVL, and TVL determines the fundamental income of the protocol. If TVL increases, usual will be released, and if TVL decreases, it will be destroyed instead. Therefore, it is obviously absurd to use total supply for valuation, but only based on current TVL (income)!
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🔥🔥I think usual is seriously undervalued.——The rising flywheel is about to start, and the extremely high APY will lead to explosive growth in TVL, with an expected increase of 200% in TVL over the next 8 weeks, approaching or even exceeding 2 billion. At that time, the yield from government bonds alone could reach 100 million dollars, with a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio being 2 billion. Based on a circulating supply of 600 million, the reasonable coin price should be above 3 dollars. #USUAL
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Binance Launchpool: Usual (USUAL), with price predictions
Yesterday afternoon, Binance announced that it will launch the 61st project on Launchpool: decentralized stablecoin protocol Usual (token name is USUAL). #新币挖矿&盘前交易USUAL
The activity lasts for 4 days:
08:00 on November 15 (Eastern Time Zone 8) to 07:59 on November 19, 2024 (Eastern Time Zone 8) In addition, pre-market trading will start at 18:00 on November 19 (Eastern Time Zone 8), and there is a high probability that it will be delayed..
Ps: This time it is not TON ecosystem or MEME. It is an innovative stablecoin protocol: Usual. What exactly is this project?
Project Introduction：
Usual is a decentralized legal stablecoin issuer that governs platform resources through the platform token $USUAL. Using multi-chain infrastructure, it integrates RWA assets from real entities such as BlackRock, Ondo, Mountain Protocol, M0, Hashnote, etc., and transforms them into permissionless, on-chain verifiable, and composable stablecoins $USD0.
The activity lasts for 4 days:
08:00 on November 15 (Eastern Time Zone 8) to 07:59 on November 19, 2024 (Eastern Time Zone 8) In addition, pre-market trading will start at 18:00 on November 19 (Eastern Time Zone 8), and there is a high probability that it will be delayed..
Ps: This time it is not TON ecosystem or MEME. It is an innovative stablecoin protocol: Usual. What exactly is this project?
Project Introduction：
Usual is a decentralized legal stablecoin issuer that governs platform resources through the platform token $USUAL. Using multi-chain infrastructure, it integrates RWA assets from real entities such as BlackRock, Ondo, Mountain Protocol, M0, Hashnote, etc., and transforms them into permissionless, on-chain verifiable, and composable stablecoins $USD0.
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MarsBit News
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A 5-minute look at Binance’s latest Launchpool project, Usual (USUAL)
Written by: Luke, Mars Finance
Recently, with Binance announcing the launch of Usual (USUAL), this stablecoin project called Usual Money has quickly become the focus. As one of the latest projects of Binance Launchpool and Pre-Market, Usual has attracted widespread attention from the market. The listing effect of Binance has undoubtedly increased the exposure of Usual, but the complex mechanism and unique innovations of this product are also worthy of our attention. This article will analyze the innovations and operating mechanisms of Usual Money in detail to help investors better understand the value of this project.
Recently, with Binance announcing the launch of Usual (USUAL), this stablecoin project called Usual Money has quickly become the focus. As one of the latest projects of Binance Launchpool and Pre-Market, Usual has attracted widespread attention from the market. The listing effect of Binance has undoubtedly increased the exposure of Usual, but the complex mechanism and unique innovations of this product are also worthy of our attention. This article will analyze the innovations and operating mechanisms of Usual Money in detail to help investors better understand the value of this project.
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New three-door problem
I will publish a "New Three Questions" and ask experts to answer your questions.
There are three doors, and there is 5 million behind one of them. You can get it after selecting it. Suppose you and Xiao Ming each choose a door. You choose A and Xiao Ming chooses C. At this time, the system opens B, and the result shows that door B did not win the prize. Now the question comes - if they are interchangeable, are you willing to exchange choices with Xiao Ming? Why ❓ - One explanation is that it is not necessary, because the probability of winning the prize for the remaining two doors is 1/2. One explanation is that it should be changed. Suppose you choose A at first and the probability of winning is 1/3. The other two doors BC combined have a winning probability of 2/3. If the system opens door B and it is an empty door, then the probability of C is 2/3. Yes, it should be replaced. But what if you are Xiao Ming? From Xiao Ming's point of view, the probability of AB is also 2/3. Since B is an empty goal, the probability of A is also 2/3 and should be changed. Should I change it? I'm so worried.
There are three doors, and there is 5 million behind one of them. You can get it after selecting it. Suppose you and Xiao Ming each choose a door. You choose A and Xiao Ming chooses C. At this time, the system opens B, and the result shows that door B did not win the prize. Now the question comes - if they are interchangeable, are you willing to exchange choices with Xiao Ming? Why ❓ - One explanation is that it is not necessary, because the probability of winning the prize for the remaining two doors is 1/2. One explanation is that it should be changed. Suppose you choose A at first and the probability of winning is 1/3. The other two doors BC combined have a winning probability of 2/3. If the system opens door B and it is an empty door, then the probability of C is 2/3. Yes, it should be replaced. But what if you are Xiao Ming? From Xiao Ming's point of view, the probability of AB is also 2/3. Since B is an empty goal, the probability of A is also 2/3 and should be changed. Should I change it? I'm so worried.
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About ETH, L1, and L2
Try to imagine the market demand ten years from now. It may be easier for us to grasp the dormant dark horses now! Ten years later, population aging has become the situation in many countries, blockchain technology has become widely popularized, Web3 has become the Internet of the new era, and digital currency has become the mainstream of daily payments.
The technology that solves the aging population is artificial intelligence. This is also an industry that I was strongly optimistic about two or three years ago.
There is a high probability that ETH will quickly lose the competition in the future. Technology is changing with each passing day. Due to technological innovation, the performance of APT, SUI, SEI, etc. has been improved exponentially. It is not ruled out that the market value will surpass ETH in the future.
The technology that solves the aging population is artificial intelligence. This is also an industry that I was strongly optimistic about two or three years ago.
There is a high probability that ETH will quickly lose the competition in the future. Technology is changing with each passing day. Due to technological innovation, the performance of APT, SUI, SEI, etc. has been improved exponentially. It is not ruled out that the market value will surpass ETH in the future.
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Not bad, collected it!
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飞哥笔记1
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Why should we buy new rather than old when investing in altcoins? ? ?
Why do new projects increase more than old projects? The growth rate of new projects will inevitably be greater than that of old projects.
In terms of counterparties:
First, there are few new projects holding up stocks. There are relatively few hold-up orders for new projects, and the selling pressure faced by market makers is small. When more than 90% of the chips are in profit, most token holders tend to be reluctant to sell. Buying orders are stronger than selling orders, and smaller funds are needed. Can drive growth. As for old projects, they have experienced several bull and bear rounds and have fallen from highs. In addition, the bull and bear cycles of the crypto market are shorter (we know that the inventory cycle and pig cycle are 40 months, the equipment investment cycle is 10 years, and the real estate cycle is 20 years. If Bitcoin The currency halving cycle is still valid for the market, basically a four-year cycle, and it starts to rise after one year of decline), so there is insufficient change of hands at the bottom, and the market makers face greater selling pressure, especially at key resistance positions. There are a large number of hold-up orders, and it is necessary to wash away the unstable floating chips by withdrawing the first two and withdrawing one. A typical example is LTC. In this halving market, the trend is to withdraw the first two and withdraw one, secretly developing.
In terms of counterparties:
First, there are few new projects holding up stocks. There are relatively few hold-up orders for new projects, and the selling pressure faced by market makers is small. When more than 90% of the chips are in profit, most token holders tend to be reluctant to sell. Buying orders are stronger than selling orders, and smaller funds are needed. Can drive growth. As for old projects, they have experienced several bull and bear rounds and have fallen from highs. In addition, the bull and bear cycles of the crypto market are shorter (we know that the inventory cycle and pig cycle are 40 months, the equipment investment cycle is 10 years, and the real estate cycle is 20 years. If Bitcoin The currency halving cycle is still valid for the market, basically a four-year cycle, and it starts to rise after one year of decline), so there is insufficient change of hands at the bottom, and the market makers face greater selling pressure, especially at key resistance positions. There are a large number of hold-up orders, and it is necessary to wash away the unstable floating chips by withdrawing the first two and withdrawing one. A typical example is LTC. In this halving market, the trend is to withdraw the first two and withdraw one, secretly developing.
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"The Way of Trading" - Fatal Psychology
1. Eager for success
When I was 20 years old, I often imagined that if I couldn't achieve anything before I turned 30, I might as well just jump off the building. In fact, I was still very poor when I was 30 years old.
In our 20s, we are ignorant and presumptuous, young and frivolous, with high ambitions but low ambitions. We are full of vigorous fighting spirit and soaring dreams. This is a good thing. It makes us fearless and dare to think and do. But if you are in the financial market, you are destined to experience a baptism of hardships!
The more people are short of money, the more they want to make money faster, and financial markets generally provide leverage. Objectively speaking, leverage can indeed be a small gain, but 99% of investors cannot make reasonable use of it.
When I was 20 years old, I often imagined that if I couldn't achieve anything before I turned 30, I might as well just jump off the building. In fact, I was still very poor when I was 30 years old.
In our 20s, we are ignorant and presumptuous, young and frivolous, with high ambitions but low ambitions. We are full of vigorous fighting spirit and soaring dreams. This is a good thing. It makes us fearless and dare to think and do. But if you are in the financial market, you are destined to experience a baptism of hardships!
The more people are short of money, the more they want to make money faster, and financial markets generally provide leverage. Objectively speaking, leverage can indeed be a small gain, but 99% of investors cannot make reasonable use of it.
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How to make easy money in the financial market
——Tao to simplicity! It is so easy to make money in the financial market, but the reality is that 90% of investors lose money.
(There are many pitfalls that lead to losses, and I will sort them out one by one in the next article.) This article simply shares a way to make money easily.
【Large cycle strategy】
The so-called big cycle strategy is to make investment decisions based on the economic (monetary) cycle.
for example,
(1) What time is it now? ——The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, currently 5% to 5.25%, the Federal Reserve raised the deposit interest rate from 0 to 5% in just over a year, so we have seen depressed prices for many projects.
(There are many pitfalls that lead to losses, and I will sort them out one by one in the next article.) This article simply shares a way to make money easily.
【Large cycle strategy】
The so-called big cycle strategy is to make investment decisions based on the economic (monetary) cycle.
for example,
(1) What time is it now? ——The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, currently 5% to 5.25%, the Federal Reserve raised the deposit interest rate from 0 to 5% in just over a year, so we have seen depressed prices for many projects.
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Kelly's formula (position management artifact)
The Kelly formula was proposed by John R. Kelly, Jr. in 1956. It indicates the optimal proportion of bets that should be made each period in a recurring gamble or investment with a positive expected return. Kelly's formula has long been famous in "Las Vegas" and "Wall Street". Many mathematical geniuses have developed it in casinos and investments and have achieved extraordinary results. The most famous among them is probably Dr. Edward Thorp, who developed a strategy for defeating Blackjack (21 points) and used the proportion calculated by Kelly's formula to make bets (Thorp 1962); after playing in the casino, Dr. Thorp used it in His talents in statistics and probability theory are used in investment. The PNP hedge fund he founded has achieved annual returns of more than 20% in the past 30 years (Thorp 2017).
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Will ANKR be a dark horse?
Binance Investment has close cooperation with Microsoft and Tencent Cloud, and its RPC business is at the forefront of the industry.
In 2022, Ankr RPC request service increased by 2,000%, supporting 23 blockchains (currently supporting 38, the most in the industry), serving more than 40,000 developers, covering nodes in more than 30 global regions, and 8 billion APIs daily ask. And set standards for RPC/API connections on different chains. If Web3 is the future of the Internet, then ANKR, as a web3 infrastructure provider, will most likely become a new star in the market.
Simple valuation: The total amount of ANKR is 10 billion, the current price is US$0.025, and the total market value is US$250 million. Assume that the market value is 20 billion in the bull market stage, corresponding to a currency price of 2 US dollars. Assume that the future market value is 10 billion, and the corresponding price is 1 US dollar. As for how big the demand is, it mainly depends on market trends. If WEB3 is really the future, then ANKR will definitely shine. #ankr
Binance Investment has close cooperation with Microsoft and Tencent Cloud, and its RPC business is at the forefront of the industry.
In 2022, Ankr RPC request service increased by 2,000%, supporting 23 blockchains (currently supporting 38, the most in the industry), serving more than 40,000 developers, covering nodes in more than 30 global regions, and 8 billion APIs daily ask. And set standards for RPC/API connections on different chains. If Web3 is the future of the Internet, then ANKR, as a web3 infrastructure provider, will most likely become a new star in the market.
Simple valuation: The total amount of ANKR is 10 billion, the current price is US$0.025, and the total market value is US$250 million. Assume that the market value is 20 billion in the bull market stage, corresponding to a currency price of 2 US dollars. Assume that the future market value is 10 billion, and the corresponding price is 1 US dollar. As for how big the demand is, it mainly depends on market trends. If WEB3 is really the future, then ANKR will definitely shine. #ankr
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ThanksgivingBTCMoves
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This Friday Could Change Everything for Bitcoin – Here’s Why
A pivotal moment is approaching for Bitcoin as BTC options worth $13.6 billion are set to expire on November 29, creating significant market volatility. Bulls aim to push Bitcoin’s price above the iconic $100,000 mark, leveraging their dominance over call options.
Currently, call options (buy) outweigh put options (sell) with an open interest of $7.4 billion versus $6.2 billion, presenting an opportunity for optimistic investors. Potential outcomes based on the closing price include:
• $86,000-$90,000: $1.65 billion gain for call options.
• $90,000-$94,000: $2.6 billion advantage for buyers.
• $94,000-$98,000: $3.55 billion gain.
• $98,000-$102,000: Bulls could secure $4.58 billion.
While bears will attempt to keep BTC below $90,000, its 34% rise in 30 days gives bulls the edge.
Reaching $100,000 depends on key factors:
• 20% of call options ($4.25 billion) target $100,000.
• Put options above $100,000 are negligible, totaling just $80 million.
• Macro pressures and inflation concerns could bolster BTC as a safe haven.
Bitcoin’s resilience, coupled with strong market dynamics, positions it for a historic milestone.
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