Viewpoint: usual is seriously underestimated! #USUAL
Reasons: 1. Pre-market trading ~ Binance purchase restrictions, which temporarily prevented institutions and large investors from making large-scale investments
2. The vast majority (99.9%) of investors did not read its white paper carefully, resulting in fatal misjudgments in market value and valuation.
We know that the maximum supply of Usual is 4b. Many cautious investors are used to using the total amount to evaluate the long-term investment value of a project, which is fine. But using the total amount to estimate Usual is obviously a major mistake.
Why❓——Because the release of usual is not linearly released according to time, it is supplied and destroyed according to TVL, and TVL determines the fundamental income of the protocol. If TVL increases, usual will be released, and if TVL decreases, it will be destroyed instead. Therefore, it is obviously absurd to use total supply for valuation, but only based on current TVL (income)!
If we only calculate based on the current revenue of 20m, the S&P average 30 times P/E ratio corresponds to 600 million, divided by the current circulation of 500 million, the corresponding reasonable coin price is 1.2$.
If the usual value returns and the price of the coin returns to $1.2, what will happen❓——In the next 12 months, there will be about 500 million usual rewards to TVL contributors and usual pledgers on the protocol, which is $600 million at $1.2. We can see that the current usual TVL is about 470 million. If TVL does not grow, it means that these investors can get more than 100% return with 0 risk. The free market is profit-seeking. Today's high APY will inevitably attract more TVL growth, and the growth of TVL means the growth of protocol revenue. The growth of revenue pushes up the valuation of the project, that is, the price of the coin. And the rise in the price of the coin further increases APY! See? This is a typical rising flywheel.
Ondo currently has a TVL of 640 million and a market value of over 11 billion US dollars; Ena follows the example of Usual and empowers tokens, which has also made its TVL soar and its market value has reached 11 billion US dollars. Although Usual has only been online for more than three months, its TVL has already reached nearly 500 million. It is estimated that there is no doubt that it will surpass Ondo in the next month.
In addition, when the bull market ends and the bear market comes, smart investors often choose to hold stablecoins for risk hedging. During the past bear market, investors had no choice but to hold USDT or USDC, and USDT could only bring an annualized return of about 2%. But now with Usual, it's different. Holding Usual's stablecoin can bring about 5% regular returns, which comes from the protocol's automatic investment in treasury bonds. At the same time, you can also share about 500 million Usual airdrops each year (which may be a higher return). Therefore, even if the bear market comes, Usual's TVL will most likely grow rapidly! The rapid growth of TVL means rising revenue. Even in a bear market, what will happen when TVL reaches $10 billion?
The protocol will bring in about 1 billion US dollars in revenue each year. 50% of it comes from automatic income from treasury bonds, and the rest comes from stablecoin lending itself. I calculated it based on the lending of USDT and USDC. The annual interest rate in a bear market is 2%, and in a bull market it is 14%. Based on a four-year cycle, the average return is 2+2+2+14=20, 20/4=5%. That is, if the stablecoin scale reaches 10 billion, it can generate an average of 500 million in additional income.
With almost zero risk return of 1 billion US dollars a year, what do you think is a reasonable market value for such a project?
So, when the project TGE is held in mid-December and Binance lifts the purchase limit, will Usual usher in a gorgeous surge? Let us wait and see!
