For example, many years ago, a friend of mine thought that the price of BTC was too high, so he exchanged BTC for LTC. He thought that because the total amount of LTC was one-fourth of BTC, the price should be one-fourth lower accordingly.
Later, he also exchanged ETH for ETC. At that time, the price of ETC was 20 times cheaper than ETH. He fantasized that ETC could catch up with ETH, and even the price could reach 1:1.
He had exchanged for cheaper currencies countless times because he thought the price of a certain currency was too high. As a result, these cheap currencies often returned to zero, while the currencies he exchanged rose sharply.
This situation has been repeated, so you understand.
BTC is currently estimated to fluctuate between 10,000 and 105,000. When the price retraced yesterday, it didn't break below the 103,000 line. However, we need to be cautious, especially over the weekend.
Because the U.S. stock market is closed next Monday, short sellers love to take advantage of such times for sudden attacks. Additionally, today many mainstream coins and altcoins have had their funds absorbed by those related to $TRUMP, so we need to stay alert. Before next Monday when 'King of Knowledge' takes office and positive news comes out, the market may still have to fluctuate and adjust for a while.
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Currently, sentiment is positive, the trend is becoming clearer, and it is not far from a new high, currently around 103500. The English-speaking region is full of positive news, with only two days until January 20. It is normal for short-term profit-taking and selling to occur on the day of the inauguration when 'good news is fully released.' However, the inauguration is not the end, just like on election day, the market rebounded a few hours after the sell-off. 98000 and 99000 have become new support levels. As long as there are no negative sentiments, and considering that there is not much on-chain pressure above 102000, it is easy to break through with good sentiment. Last night, it reached a high of 105800, and is now slightly pulling back, with a new high imminent. Regarding altcoins, it is reiterated to seize the trend; the trend may quietly arrive next week, so let’s wait and see.
Which altcoins are worth investing in? The first category includes those with a strong performance compared to Bitcoin's exchange rate. Although Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin is not great, the following altcoins have already started to show signs of a bull market against Bitcoin, and they are likely to outperform Bitcoin in the future, such as Ripple (XRP), Hedera (HBAR), Dogecoin (DOGE), Stellar (XLM), Cardano (ADA), AGLO, AAVE, CRV, and SUI. The second category consists of those with cleaned-out bubbles and low risk. The MEME sector had a severe drop previously, with a maximum decline of 70%. However, coins like WIF, POPCATA, and BONK have shown daily divergence, indicating that the risk is relatively low, so they are worth a look.
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Bitcoin has now clearly confirmed a reversal of the situation. From a technical analysis perspective, it continuously created lower lows during the downtrend, which caused the market to fall into pessimism. However, recently Bitcoin has shown strong rebound power, breaking out higher highs, marking a key change that indicates Bitcoin is beginning to exhibit strong characteristics. For investors, if Bitcoin experiences a pullback in the subsequent market, this will be an excellent opportunity to continue going long. During the pullback, special attention should be paid to the support level around 95,000, as this position has significant technical importance. Once effective support can be obtained at this level, Bitcoin's bullish trend will be further confirmed and solidified.
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Its current price is only 1.79, which is even lower than when it was in a swing. So at this price point, it might be worth trying to layout spot positions. Looking upwards, two key resistance levels should be noted: the first is around 2.3, and the second is roughly around 2.85.
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Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 94,000 these past two days, obviously waiting for the CPI data to be released on Wednesday. It has been fluctuating in the price range of 92,000 to 99,800 for 55 days. The last time it fluctuated in this price range was from December 2023 to February 2024, when it fluctuated for 63 days before breaking through this range and starting a new market. Will this time be the same as last time?
I personally think that there may be a false break at the 92,000 price level, which means that the price will drop to 90,000 or even lower, but will then rise back. If this is the first time that the price breaks down and then recovers, the rise will definitely be quite large, at least $3,000 to $5,000. At that time, those altcoins will also rise more or less.
Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the price of 94,000 these two days, obviously waiting for the CPI data to be released on Wednesday. It has been fluctuating in the price range of 92,000 to 99,800 for 55 days. The last time it fluctuated in such a price range was from December 2023 to February 2024. It fluctuated for 63 days before breaking through this range and starting a new market. Will this time be the same as last time?
Personally, I think that there may be a false break at the price of 92,000, that is, it seems to have broken, and the price suddenly dropped to 90,000 or even lower, but then it will rise again. If this kind of break and recovery occurs for the first time, the rise will definitely be quite large, at least 3,000 to 5,000 US dollars. At that time, those altcoins will also rise more or less.
So if you see everyone panicking, you can consider buying at the bottom, and you may be able to make a fortune. However, the market changes quickly, so you still have to be cautious when making decisions.
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BTC continues to oscillate, and this may last until next week. I previously mentioned the altcoin season, and even if it occurs, it is only localized. I believe everyone has experienced 2021, and I can responsibly tell you that in 2021, there was a great deal of liquidity in the market, but the secondary altcoin market only saw the strong getting stronger, while the weak became very weak. 2021 was the era of the metaverse, gaming, DeFi, public chains, and memes. As we move into 2024-2025, the focus has shifted to public chains, AI, memes, and a few popular sectors. Currently, BTC is still oscillating between 91,500 and 98,000. Although there was some volatility last night, previous emotions have already been overhyped, so BTC remains around 94,000. It's the weekend now, and market liquidity is low, so it is expected to oscillate through this period.
BTC continues to fluctuate, perhaps until next week. I have mentioned the alt season before, but even if there is one, it is only local. I believe that everyone has experienced 2021. I can tell you responsibly that there was a lot of money in 2021, and the market is extremely rich in hot money. However, the secondary alt market is only strong and strong, and the weak are really weak.
2021 is the era of the metaverse, games, DeFi, public chains, and memes, and the time has come to 2024-2025, and it has become the leader of public chains, AI, MEME and a few popular tracks. At present, BTC is still fluctuating between 91500-98000. Although there was fluctuation last night, because the previous sentiment has been hyped, BTC is still around 94000. Now it is the weekend, the market liquidity is low, and it is estimated that it will be spent in fluctuations.
Judging from the BTC on-chain data URPD (this indicator shows the chip concentration area of on-chain transactions, which is often used to determine the support/resistance level of the market), after last night, the support at 92,000 and 93,000 is still strong, and it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate around 94,000.
I look forward to Trump's voice starting next week. Anyway, there is still time. Let's see if BTC can slowly fluctuate and rise like it did in the first few days of the month. The popularity of SOL on the chain is still good now, and the update and iteration of AI+ is so fast, but I think the leaders, especially those listed on the big exchanges, can still play back and forth.
On January 11th, the market continued to decline, and at this time, Ethereum had already fallen for five days. The performance of the AI sector was also unsatisfactory; however, the performance of the cryptocurrency T has been noteworthy recently. In the primary market, there are still many quality projects. However, leading cryptocurrencies like swarms and ai16z have been continuously declining.
Every day, PUMP produces tens of thousands of shitcoins, but only a few hundred may actually show some performance, and ultimately, only a few dozen might stand out. Phenomenal shitcoin projects are even rarer than a phoenix feather.
Some people focus solely on trading within the domestic market, some only favor projects that have already gained attention, some are enthusiastic about AI-related shitcoins, some only choose those with a market cap of a few million or above 10 million, and others only participate in trending projects.
Never rush in blindly; finding a suitable way to "hunt shitcoins" for yourself is the most ideal approach.
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Bitcoin currently has strong support around 92,000. Yesterday, the trend first slowly declined, creating a panic atmosphere of falling from a high level. However, in the last two hours of the night, it unexpectedly rebounded and finally closed in the shape of a spindle. This pattern reveals an important message - the space for subsequent decline is actually very limited. Yesterday, there was a major news that the US government plans to sell Bitcoin on the Silk Road. This news instantly threw the market into chaos, and panic spread rapidly in the short term. In addition, due to the previous market rally, it is now in a correction phase, and many funds have withdrawn for risk aversion. So how to deal with it next? Will Bitcoin continue to fall? What should I do if I am trapped? From the adjustment of Bitcoin, the black line represents the first part of the adjustment, the blue line represents the second part, and the red line represents the third part.
NEAR is a currency that I have always been very optimistic about, and the capital strength behind it is quite strong. In the layer1 sector, NEAR is also a leader. The decline this time is about 20%. The expected 4.5 position did not show a spike, and the price of 5 showed very obvious signs of support. If there is a rebound at this position, it can at least reach 5.8.
Friends who like altcoins may wish to allocate some ENA! Its strength and background are quite impressive, and major institutions are competing for it. In terms of rebound strength, ENA is stronger than Ethereum! Every time it rebounds, it is always on the list of gains.
Judging from the liquidation map, there are very few long positions left. I wonder if the dog dealer will clean up the long positions first and then clean up the short positions?
The Grayscale Decentralized Artificial Intelligence Fund has added LPT to its composition, which includes the following assets: NEAR, RENDER, TAO, FIL, GRT, and LPT.
The Grayscale DeFi Fund (DEFG) has added CRV to its composition, removing SNX, and now includes the following assets: UNI, AAVE, LDO, MKR, and CRV.
The Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) has added ADA to its composition, removing AVAX, and now includes the following assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA.
The Grayscale Smart Contract Platform Ex-Ethereum Fund (GSCPxE Fund) has added SUI to its composition, which includes the following assets: SOL, ADA, AVAX, SUI, NEAR, and DOT.
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Why did the market fall last night? Will it fall further? The market is a sentiment of buying and selling. No matter whether it is market makers, large institutions, or individual investors, they receive various different information from the market every day, especially information from the United States. At present, there is still time before the transfer of power after the general election, so there is no hype. Therefore, it is the macro information that can affect the market sentiment. Currently, it is a period of interest rate cuts. For now, any negative information that exceeds 2 interest rate cuts will cause market panic and lead to more selling than buying. Then, if BTC falls slightly, it will be even worse when the altcoins have little liquidity. As for the on-chain, although the on-chain may not be so closely related to BTC, the essence of the on-chain boom requires good sentiment. Without sustained good sentiment, it is not very optimistic.