Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 94,000 these past two days, obviously waiting for the CPI data to be released on Wednesday. It has been fluctuating in the price range of 92,000 to 99,800 for 55 days. The last time it fluctuated in this price range was from December 2023 to February 2024, when it fluctuated for 63 days before breaking through this range and starting a new market. Will this time be the same as last time?
I personally think that there may be a false break at the 92,000 price level, which means that the price will drop to 90,000 or even lower, but will then rise back. If this is the first time that the price breaks down and then recovers, the rise will definitely be quite large, at least $3,000 to $5,000. At that time, those altcoins will also rise more or less.
So if you see everyone panicking, you can consider buying at the bottom, and you may be able to make a fortune. However, the market changes quickly, so you still have to be cautious when making decisions.
Has everyone forgotten about the FTX compensation? This incident once again proves that news is a means of manipulating our emotions.
When the market is trying to lead you to chase high prices, people are shouting everywhere on the Internet that FTX is about to pay compensation, and a lot of funds are rushing into altcoins; when it is about to force you to cut your losses, the whole network is shouting that Bitcoin is going to fall to 86,000, and that there will be no interest rate cut this year.
If we want to wait for a new wave of news to stimulate sentiment, we have to wait for the market liquidity in the United States to recover. Especially next week, the CPI data will be released, and we don’t know whether the risk aversion sentiment will spread everywhere again by then.
Trump can be said to be the main driving force behind this round of cryptocurrency market:
The first wave, world famous paintings, pull plate;
The second wave, winning the election, pulls up the market;
Is there a third wave?
The current market sentiment and the ups and downs of Ethereum prices are very similar to the period before Trump's election victory, especially before November 6. Ethereum only rose after Trump's election.
Just wait and see. There are only 7 days left before Trump officially takes office. He will issue a bunch of executive orders within a few hours of taking office. Whether these orders will mention cryptocurrencies and whether they will indirectly affect the crypto industry, we will only know when the time comes.
Ethereum is having a hard time right now, and many people are finding fault with it. Many large investors can’t stand it anymore and have simply liquidated their positions and left. It’s not realistic to still expect Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation to come to the rescue, so now we are just hoping for some good news from the US to help.
This Wednesday (January 15), there will be CPI data. This Sunday is Trump’s speech before he takes the throne (January 19). Next Monday Trump will take the throne (January 20). I hope Trump will not forget the Bitcoin citizens who have been silently supporting him.
Everyone has had a hard time recently, and the pessimism in the market is overwhelming.
It feels like bad news is coming from all directions, this risk, that crisis, one after another. I opened the exchange and saw that it was all green, and the decline made people panic. The signs of the bull market seemed to have been suppressed severely, and I had to bury my head in "drinking water" to slow down.
Think about the long bear market that followed the bull market in 2017. It was so difficult back then. I kept wondering: Will Bitcoin become worthless? Will the entire cryptocurrency industry collapse? As long as the answer is no, I will hold on to it.
FTX creditor Sunil announced the "FTX repayment plan preliminary distribution schedule" on the X platform. Creditors with claims less than $50,000 are expected to receive about $1.2 billion in compensation. FTX requires creditors to complete claim registration before January 20 to participate in the preliminary distribution, and repayment will not start earlier than this time. The first repayment is expected to start on February 25 and last until March 4. This schedule allows creditors to have an idea of how to get compensation as required, and it will also bring a lot of funds to the market.
Will the AI Agent in the BSC ecosystem work?
We must first understand that the on-chain MEME market is affected by the overall market. Usually, the on-chain market emerges when Bitcoin fluctuates or rises. When the market is not good, investors have a headache choosing coins. However, most of the good investment opportunities are on a few key chains, such as Solana, which is the first choice, and Ethereum, Base and BSC ecology are not bad. Binance recently launched three currencies, AIXBT, CGPT and COOKIE, two of which are on the BSC chain. It can be seen that Binance supports its own ecology.
If you want to invest, you have to keep an eye on the powerful projects in these ecosystems. Binance has sufficient resources and funds, so it is no problem to support benchmark projects. At present, REVOX has a bright fundamentals, has a large number of users in the Korean community, and is also listed on Bybit. If a currency wants to be recognized by people, it must either rely on marketing hype or raise expectations with technology and stories. Anyway, it must have some real skills.
What story does REVOX tell?
It revolves around the AI Agent framework application protocol on the BSC chain. The biggest selling point of this project is that it relies on the BSC underlying architecture to connect the ecosystem, such as asset issuance, DeFi transactions, and zkML verification. This project is actually supported by the Korean community, and the community is very lively. The Korean community held an AMA event before, and nearly 70,900 people came, which shows that REVOX is very popular in the Korean market and has accumulated a lot of users. Now it is all online on Bybit, and I think it has a great chance of entering the mainstream Korean exchange Upbit.
Ethereum that has been kept:
To be honest, ETH didn’t perform very well in this bull market. It couldn’t be compared with the impressive growth in the previous two bull markets. This time it increased by 3 times, and was far behind BTC. Why is this so? On the one hand, competitors such as SOL have emerged, and on the other hand, the most important thing is that L2 has taken away a lot of ETH’s market value.
Compared with the peak of the last bull market, all key indicators of ETH have fallen sharply. Take the current situation for example, its TVL is only 64 billion US dollars, only 60% of the peak of the last round; the weekly protocol income is about 30 million US dollars, which is far from the 500 million US dollars earned last week; the number of active addresses per day is only 500,000, which was 3 times of this number at the peak. However, the market value of ETH has returned to 70% of its peak. From this perspective, ETH may be overvalued.
The L2 sector is developing rapidly, which has a great impact on ETH. It has taken away 15% of ETH's TVL, 80% of active addresses, and 90% of protocol revenue. At the same time, L2 tokens with market capitalizations of tens of billions, such as ARB and OP, have emerged one after another, and the ecological value of ETH has been further weakened. Although L2 has reduced gas fees and made on-chain transactions more lively, the market value of ETH relies on gas fee burning to resist the inflation caused by POS staking. Once L2 is involved, this core logic is messed up.
If BASE issues tokens in the future, or UNI, the "big burner" in the ETH ecosystem, launches L2 UNICHAIN, then ETH's protocol revenue will be further reduced and its market value will continue to be suppressed.
L2 was supposed to be an ecological supplement to ETH, but now it has become a tool to suck the blood of ETH. Each L2 tries to raise money by issuing coins and plunder the core value of ETH. Although ETH will still rise in the bull market, the increase will be difficult to replicate the past glory.
I took a look at the direction of the primary market, and it seems to be moving towards meme attributes again.
Everyone is a little tired of the crazy issuance of AI coins before. You can see from LLM fat Ai16z to yesterday's chw hat. Now the market for meme-oriented coins is gradually getting better. Even on the AI side, there are too many "AI fast-pass" projects. In the end, it is basically big whales who enter the market to take over, and the project cycle is very short. Many long-term whales have lost a lot of money in a bunch of AI projects, and now they dare not easily invest heavily in new AI projects. I think this has to be slow, otherwise the market will not develop healthily. However, AI projects with real value should still be able to go up. The market rhythm has become fast, so don't chase high.
The counterfeit on CEX was miserable over the weekend. On-chain AI generally pulled back, and framework AI 16Z SWARMS PIPPIN and so on all pulled back a lot, but this did not affect the birth of the new Golden Dog.
(1) AIOS
The AI infrastructure AIOS project was questioned at first (fud), and then people followed the trend and hyped it (fomo), and its market value suddenly reached 150 million US dollars. Now, it has fallen from its peak to almost half. However, this project has a good foundation, so you can continue to pay attention to it, and there may be more potential in the future.
(2) Pure meme Golden Dog:
The price of meme-type LLM projects has dropped by half from the highest point to now. However, after LLM became popular, a bunch of new pure meme projects emerged, and several of them popped up on weekends, such as CWH and CONCHO WILLY. At present, funds and traffic are concentrated on the chain, and new projects are emerging every day.
Only by participating in it can retail investors reap the benefits. If they don’t participate, they will miss the opportunity. For retail investors, there is no difference between on-chain AI projects and meme projects. There is no threshold. As long as you can make money, don’t be too serious when trading.
However, everyone must be aware of the risks, control their positions, and quickly get the principal back once it doubles. This is of utmost importance.
