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It's soaring again! The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week has exceeded 50%
Bond traders again believe Federal Reserve policymakers are more likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points than by 25 basis points when they meet this week.
Swap contracts tied to the Fed's rate decisions show a more than 50% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut this week, compared with last week when traders almost completely ruled out the possibility. That sent the two-year U.S. yield back to its lowest level in two years and dragged the dollar index to its lowest level since January.
The reversal of market bets over the past few sessions has increased the risk to the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, with investors divided over how much policy support the economy needs and what signal the Fed's decision to kick off an easing cycle with a big rate cut would send.
Swap contracts tied to the Fed's rate decisions show a more than 50% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut this week, compared with last week when traders almost completely ruled out the possibility. That sent the two-year U.S. yield back to its lowest level in two years and dragged the dollar index to its lowest level since January.
The reversal of market bets over the past few sessions has increased the risk to the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, with investors divided over how much policy support the economy needs and what signal the Fed's decision to kick off an easing cycle with a big rate cut would send.
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[Jinshi Data Compilation: Summary of important news in European and American markets on September 16]
Domestic News:
1. On the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, many rural financial institutions lowered their RMB personal deposit rates, with some institutions reducing them by as much as 55 basis points.
2. Typhoon "Bebejia" has entered Nanjing City and the Shanghai typhoon warning has been lifted.
3. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that it has obtained approval from regulators to implement severe weather trading, which will take effect from September 23, 2024.
4. As of September 15, the actual issuance scale of domestic interbank certificates of deposit was 22.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24.72%.
Domestic News:
1. On the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, many rural financial institutions lowered their RMB personal deposit rates, with some institutions reducing them by as much as 55 basis points.
2. Typhoon "Bebejia" has entered Nanjing City and the Shanghai typhoon warning has been lifted.
3. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that it has obtained approval from regulators to implement severe weather trading, which will take effect from September 23, 2024.
4. As of September 15, the actual issuance scale of domestic interbank certificates of deposit was 22.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24.72%.
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Oil prices rebounded before the Fed's interest rate decision, but bulls may not be able to make a big splash
International oil prices rose on Monday, with both U.S. and Brent crude rising by more than 1% as the continued shutdown of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure offset some demand concerns and investors awaited a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week.
On September 15 local time, the U.S. offshore energy regulator said that due to the impact of Hurricane Francine, nearly one-fifth of crude oil and 28% of natural gas in the federal waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were shut down.
The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement estimated based on producer reports that energy producers have shut down production of 338,690 barrels of oil and nearly 515 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
On September 15 local time, the U.S. offshore energy regulator said that due to the impact of Hurricane Francine, nearly one-fifth of crude oil and 28% of natural gas in the federal waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were shut down.
The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement estimated based on producer reports that energy producers have shut down production of 338,690 barrels of oil and nearly 515 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
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The Fed is about to make a big move, and the options market is hotly betting
Stock market investors are taking a defensive stance ahead of this week's much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting after moving into traditionally safer sectors even as sentiment favors bigger rate cuts from the Fed.
The skewness of S&P 500 options, a measure of the cost of protecting a stock portfolio, remains higher than before the early August rout, even as the index is within striking distance of its all-time high. That’s because traders are hedging downside risk. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates this week for the first time since the pandemic, the question is how much.
The skewness of S&P 500 options, a measure of the cost of protecting a stock portfolio, remains higher than before the early August rout, even as the index is within striking distance of its all-time high. That’s because traders are hedging downside risk. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates this week for the first time since the pandemic, the question is how much.
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[Jinshi Data Compilation: Daily U.S. Stock Market News Express (Monday, September 16)]
1. Traders believe that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is more than 25 basis points.
2. The U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index in September was 11.5, the highest since April 2022.
3. Apple (AAPL.O) stock price fell before the market opened, and Ming-Chi Kuo said that demand for the Pro series was weaker than expected.
4. Jefferies: Unable to bear the heavy burden of high costs, Volkswagen may consider forcibly closing local factories.
5. BP (BP.N): Apollo Fund will become a non-controlling shareholder of British Petroleum Pipeline TAP Ltd. The proposed transaction is valued at approximately US$1 billion. BP and Apollo will also seek to cooperate on other investment opportunities.
1. Traders believe that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is more than 25 basis points.
2. The U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index in September was 11.5, the highest since April 2022.
3. Apple (AAPL.O) stock price fell before the market opened, and Ming-Chi Kuo said that demand for the Pro series was weaker than expected.
4. Jefferies: Unable to bear the heavy burden of high costs, Volkswagen may consider forcibly closing local factories.
5. BP (BP.N): Apollo Fund will become a non-controlling shareholder of British Petroleum Pipeline TAP Ltd. The proposed transaction is valued at approximately US$1 billion. BP and Apollo will also seek to cooperate on other investment opportunities.
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Fasten your seat belts! Gold prices may be on a roller coaster this week
While there is a risk of a short-term pullback in gold prices, some analysts believe this could be the start of a broader rebound.
After a brief period of consolidation, both gold and silver experienced a fresh breakout. As of August, gold prices were capped at just below $2,550 an ounce, but that resistance has now been breached. Silver's gains were even more significant, with prices back above $30 an ounce.
In an interview, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, described the rally as a spring that has finally burst, adding that economic data supports lower interest rates, not just from the Federal Reserve but from central banks around the world.
After a brief period of consolidation, both gold and silver experienced a fresh breakout. As of August, gold prices were capped at just below $2,550 an ounce, but that resistance has now been breached. Silver's gains were even more significant, with prices back above $30 an ounce.
In an interview, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, described the rally as a spring that has finally burst, adding that economic data supports lower interest rates, not just from the Federal Reserve but from central banks around the world.
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The US stock market is in a tough spot! Citi warns: Trump or Harris' election is bad for US stocks
According to Citigroup strategists, both Trump and Harris' political platforms appear to be negative for U.S. stocks, with Democratic candidate Harris' plan to raise corporate taxes seen as having the greatest impact.
The team, led by Scott Chronert, found that Harris's platform would hit fair value of U.S. stocks by 4% to 6%. "This is primarily due to the impact of higher corporate tax rates as a direct result of a Harris presidency," they wrote in a report.
Meanwhile, the impact of the Republican candidates' planned policies is expected to be between 0% and -4%. Strategists say Trump's plan will deal the biggest blow to the U.S. fiscal deficit, which will be the main issue going forward.
The team, led by Scott Chronert, found that Harris's platform would hit fair value of U.S. stocks by 4% to 6%. "This is primarily due to the impact of higher corporate tax rates as a direct result of a Harris presidency," they wrote in a report.
Meanwhile, the impact of the Republican candidates' planned policies is expected to be between 0% and -4%. Strategists say Trump's plan will deal the biggest blow to the U.S. fiscal deficit, which will be the main issue going forward.
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Well-known “Big Short”: The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates has limited impact on U.S. stocks, there are more important factors!
The magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated interest rate cut this week will have less impact on Wall Street than the health of the U.S. economy, according to top Wall Street strategists.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in four years early Thursday, with investors wavering between whether the central bank will cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Expectations of easing policy and strong economic data so far have pushed the S&P 500 up more than 30% since November, and investors are now assessing whether the United States can avoid a recession after years of high interest rates.
“If the jobs data weakens from here, markets are likely to trade in a risk-off tone regardless of whether the first Fed rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points,” Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley wrote in a note.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in four years early Thursday, with investors wavering between whether the central bank will cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Expectations of easing policy and strong economic data so far have pushed the S&P 500 up more than 30% since November, and investors are now assessing whether the United States can avoid a recession after years of high interest rates.
“If the jobs data weakens from here, markets are likely to trade in a risk-off tone regardless of whether the first Fed rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points,” Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley wrote in a note.
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Stop arguing, the magnitude of the Fed’s first cut doesn’t matter?
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week in response to slowing inflation, but this is just the first in a series of rate cuts that could boost the economy and help prevent a recession.
The size of the Fed's first rate cut remains an open question ahead of a key meeting, with a minority of investors betting on a modest 25 basis point cut rather than a larger 50 basis point reduction, according to CME FedWatch.
Whatever the outcome, most economists say the size of the first rate cut is immaterial. The more important question is where the Fed ultimately goes and how long it takes to get there.
The size of the Fed's first rate cut remains an open question ahead of a key meeting, with a minority of investors betting on a modest 25 basis point cut rather than a larger 50 basis point reduction, according to CME FedWatch.
Whatever the outcome, most economists say the size of the first rate cut is immaterial. The more important question is where the Fed ultimately goes and how long it takes to get there.
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"Interest rates are too high, the Fed should cut rates by 50 basis points"!
Greg Ip, chief economic commentator at The Wall Street Journal, said that given the current state of inflation and the labor market, there is a greater risk that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, and the central bank should cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Here are his views.
The Fed's rate decision this week looks much more difficult than it should be, but the real question is not how much it should be cut, but how low it should be. The answer is that it should be lower, which supports the view that a 50 basis point cut is in the cards.
Last summer, with underlying inflation well above 3% and the labor market overheating, the Fed was so concerned that inflation would remain high that it was willing to trigger a recession to prevent that from happening.
The Fed's rate decision this week looks much more difficult than it should be, but the real question is not how much it should be cut, but how low it should be. The answer is that it should be lower, which supports the view that a 50 basis point cut is in the cards.
Last summer, with underlying inflation well above 3% and the labor market overheating, the Fed was so concerned that inflation would remain high that it was willing to trigger a recession to prevent that from happening.
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No matter what the Federal Reserve does, gold bulls have already won the game?
It’s no surprise that expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are behind gold’s recent rally to fresh all-time highs, as recession fears boost the appeal of the precious metal.
But even if the Fed takes unexpected steps, gold could prove its value as an “all-weather risk hedge.”
Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, said there is some risk of ‘buying the rumor and selling the fact’ when the Fed’s interest rate decision or actual rate cut is very close. However, global portfolios are increasingly adding gold allocations because the precious metal will perform well regardless of whether the Fed cuts rates gradually or is forced to do so more urgently amid recession fears.
But even if the Fed takes unexpected steps, gold could prove its value as an “all-weather risk hedge.”
Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, said there is some risk of ‘buying the rumor and selling the fact’ when the Fed’s interest rate decision or actual rate cut is very close. However, global portfolios are increasingly adding gold allocations because the precious metal will perform well regardless of whether the Fed cuts rates gradually or is forced to do so more urgently amid recession fears.
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[Minsheng Securities: The central price of gold is expected to continue to move up, and we are optimistic about the long-term bull market opportunities for gold] According to Jinshi Data on September 16, Minsheng Securities Research Report stated that with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts about to take effect, gold prices have hit new highs recently. Next, in the medium and long term, the weakening of the US dollar's credit is the main line, and we continue to be firmly optimistic about the upward movement of the central price of gold. "In terms of the latest economic data, the US CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, the previous value was 2.9%, and the core CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, and rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.2%. In the employment market, the non-agricultural data in August was lower than expected, and the data for June-July were revised down. Although the core CPI that exceeded expectations in August suppressed the first decline, the interest rate cut is about to start, and we are optimistic about the long-term bull market opportunities for gold prices." Minsheng Securities said. (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
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Former Fed official warns: Fed's communication will be as important as its rate cut decisions
Three months ago, as the Fed neared its first rate cut since the pandemic, Powell outlined the factors affecting the U.S. economy. When asked about the pace of easing in June, the Fed chairman told reporters: "This is a decision with far-reaching consequences, and we want to get it right."
As concerns about inflation give way to worries about jobs, the Federal Reserve is poised to begin an expected series of interest rate cuts this week, which would bring some relief to Americans after U.S. borrowing costs remained at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5% for more than a year.
As concerns about inflation give way to worries about jobs, the Federal Reserve is poised to begin an expected series of interest rate cuts this week, which would bring some relief to Americans after U.S. borrowing costs remained at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5% for more than a year.
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Tesla's 100 millionth 4680 battery rolls off the production line, with the robot Optimus playing a "tiny" role as a helper!
Tesla has received new help in reducing the cost of battery production.
Tesla makes a lot of batteries. Now it's getting some unexpected help from a new employee.
Tesla (TSLA.O) announced on Twitter on Saturday that it had produced 100 million of its 4680 battery cells. These are Tesla's larger, more advanced batteries that have higher energy, longer range and lower production costs.
The number "4680" refers to the size of the battery. This cylindrical battery has a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm. Another battery used by Tesla is the 2170, which has a diameter of 21 mm and a height of 70 mm. (A typical AA battery has a diameter of 14 mm and a height of 50 mm.)
Tesla makes a lot of batteries. Now it's getting some unexpected help from a new employee.
Tesla (TSLA.O) announced on Twitter on Saturday that it had produced 100 million of its 4680 battery cells. These are Tesla's larger, more advanced batteries that have higher energy, longer range and lower production costs.
The number "4680" refers to the size of the battery. This cylindrical battery has a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm. Another battery used by Tesla is the 2170, which has a diameter of 21 mm and a height of 70 mm. (A typical AA battery has a diameter of 14 mm and a height of 50 mm.)
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The mystery of the stock market under the AI craze: Who is the real winner?
The buzz about artificial intelligence continues during the second-quarter earnings season, with many executives still trying to work the theme into conference calls with Wall Street analysts.
However, after nearly two years of market enthusiasm, companies that did not mention AI on their earnings calls actually performed slightly better over the past few weeks.
More than 40% of S&P 500 companies, or 210 companies, mentioned “AI” in their second-quarter earnings calls since mid-June, according to a FactSet report published Friday. The number of companies mentioning AI is just one shy of the record set during the first quarter of this year.
However, after nearly two years of market enthusiasm, companies that did not mention AI on their earnings calls actually performed slightly better over the past few weeks.
More than 40% of S&P 500 companies, or 210 companies, mentioned “AI” in their second-quarter earnings calls since mid-June, according to a FactSet report published Friday. The number of companies mentioning AI is just one shy of the record set during the first quarter of this year.
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With the Federal Reserve set to cut interest rates soon, where will the stock market head in the future?
A rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday is all but certain. However, there is still uncertainty about how the stock market might react as the central bank eases monetary policy.
History offers some guidance: The reasons why the Fed cuts rates are far more important to markets than the simple fact that borrowing costs have fallen.
A chart by Vickie Chang, a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs (GS.N), shows that the Fed has eased monetary policy 10 times since the mid-1980s.
Four of the cycles were associated with recessions, and six were not. When the Fed succeeds in averting a recession, stocks tend to rise; when it fails, they tend to fall.
History offers some guidance: The reasons why the Fed cuts rates are far more important to markets than the simple fact that borrowing costs have fallen.
A chart by Vickie Chang, a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs (GS.N), shows that the Fed has eased monetary policy 10 times since the mid-1980s.
Four of the cycles were associated with recessions, and six were not. When the Fed succeeds in averting a recession, stocks tend to rise; when it fails, they tend to fall.
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At this critical moment, the Federal Reserve is ambiguous. What's going on?
The Federal Reserve's first easing of monetary policy after the worst inflation since the 1970s should have been seen as a welcome relief for the economy, but economists said the widely anticipated move this week was overshadowed by confused expectations and market volatility.
“This should be a moment of celebration, and to some extent it is,” Derek Holt, vice president of economics at Scotiabank, said in a note to clients. “Unfortunately, the Fed’s communication with the market has been quite poor, leading to heightened market volatility around expectations regarding the size and pace of rate cuts.”
“This should be a moment of celebration, and to some extent it is,” Derek Holt, vice president of economics at Scotiabank, said in a note to clients. “Unfortunately, the Fed’s communication with the market has been quite poor, leading to heightened market volatility around expectations regarding the size and pace of rate cuts.”
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Daily summary of investment bank/institutional views (2024-09-16)
Mini Program: Daily summary of investment bank/institutional views
1. Goldman Sachs: Still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week
Goldman Sachs analysts recently said that they still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and will cut interest rates at each of the remaining meetings this year (November and December). In contrast, speculation about a larger Fed rate cut has resurfaced. Former New York Federal Reserve Bank President Dudley said on Thursday that there is a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at this week's meeting. Investors reacted strongly to news articles in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal last Friday, which emphasized that the first rate cut may be a difficult decision for Fed officials, which has triggered market speculation about a larger rate cut.
1. Goldman Sachs: Still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week
Goldman Sachs analysts recently said that they still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and will cut interest rates at each of the remaining meetings this year (November and December). In contrast, speculation about a larger Fed rate cut has resurfaced. Former New York Federal Reserve Bank President Dudley said on Thursday that there is a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at this week's meeting. Investors reacted strongly to news articles in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal last Friday, which emphasized that the first rate cut may be a difficult decision for Fed officials, which has triggered market speculation about a larger rate cut.
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Former Fed economist Sam: The Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points
Federal Reserve officials are closer to achieving their goal of low inflation as they head into Tuesday's policy meeting, but how they will adjust interest rates remains an open question. Inflation data showed that price pressures have eased sharply after a sharp increase in 2021-2022. A consumer price index showed that the 12-month inflation rate hit its lowest level since February 2021, while a measure of wholesale prices suggested that price increases were largely under control.
The data were apparently enough for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to make a decision on a rate cut when it concludes its meeting on Thursday and update its forecasts for the central bank's future path.
The data were apparently enough for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to make a decision on a rate cut when it concludes its meeting on Thursday and update its forecasts for the central bank's future path.
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