火巽离风
@fwf0102
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On Monday, September 23, the U.S. House of Representatives plans to hold a full committee hearing, and the SEC will testify at the meeting. This event may have an important impact on the regulatory direction of the crypto market, and investors need to pay close attention to its developments.
On Tuesday, September 24, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision (12:30). This decision may have a chain reaction on global financial markets, thereby affecting the trend of the cryptocurrency market.
On Thursday, September 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week (20:30) was released. This data reflects the employment situation of the U.S. economy and has an important impact on market sentiment. At the same time, several Federal Reserve directors delivered speeches, and their remarks may provide clues to the future direction of monetary policy. In addition, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a welcome speech at the 8th ESRB Annual Meeting (21:30), and the content of her speech also attracted much attention.
On Friday, September 27, the U.S. August Core PCE Price Index (20:30) and the final value of the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September (22:00) will be announced successively. These economic data will provide important evidence for investors to assess the health of the U.S. economy.
On Sunday, September 29, Zhao Changpeng will be released from prison and return to society. This event may cause market fluctuations, and related concepts deserve close attention from investors.
On Tuesday, September 24, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision (12:30). This decision may have a chain reaction on global financial markets, thereby affecting the trend of the cryptocurrency market.
On Thursday, September 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week (20:30) was released. This data reflects the employment situation of the U.S. economy and has an important impact on market sentiment. At the same time, several Federal Reserve directors delivered speeches, and their remarks may provide clues to the future direction of monetary policy. In addition, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a welcome speech at the 8th ESRB Annual Meeting (21:30), and the content of her speech also attracted much attention.
On Friday, September 27, the U.S. August Core PCE Price Index (20:30) and the final value of the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September (22:00) will be announced successively. These economic data will provide important evidence for investors to assess the health of the U.S. economy.
On Sunday, September 29, Zhao Changpeng will be released from prison and return to society. This event may cause market fluctuations, and related concepts deserve close attention from investors.
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At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is coming. The market generally expects the start of a rate cut cycle, but there is a dispute over the rate cut range of 25 basis points and 50 basis points. At 2:30 a.m., Powell’s monetary policy press conference, the hawkish and dovish debate attracted much attention. After the decision is announced, Bitcoin is likely to see a needle in the sky and earth. In the short term, pay attention to the support of 59,000 and the pressure of 61,500. The financial market is changing, and tonight is destined to be
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Bitcoin's 1-hour level is still strong, at least there is no stage top signal yet, so based on the principle of following the trend, before the 1-hour pattern reaches its peak, any pullback should be an opportunity to continue to get on board. The 60,000 we are optimistic about above has been reached, and we can continue to look at 62,000! The support for the retracement is 59,000-58,500!
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The price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around 58,000, which is a strong performance. The recent target is 59,000-60,000! Bitcoin is more than 57,300-57,000 in the evening, and the target is 58,500-59,500
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Bitcoin fell into short-term volatility after a sharp rise on Monday, mainly because the market was still in a period of hesitation at the beginning of the rise. The CPI data last night affected the market again. After bottoming out at 55555, it rebounded strongly. So far, it has already hit 58500 in the morning. The short-term trend is in line with our expectations. At present, the bulls are eager to start the attack, so we continue to consider low-long today. Bitcoin fell back to 56800-56500 in the evening, with a target of 59000-59500
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Congratulations to those who have already entered the market. You have already made more than 1,000 points of profit. First, let's see if 57,500 is successfully broken through. If it breaks through, it will go up to 58,000.
If Bitcoin does not break through 57,500 at night, then there is a possibility that it will fall back to the 56,000-55,000 range. Those who are short should wait for it to reach this range before entering the market. Do not chase highs!
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If Bitcoin does not break through 57,500 at night, then there is a possibility that it will fall back to the 56,000-55,000 range. Those who are short should wait for it to reach this range before entering the market. Do not chase highs!
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"Forecast and Impact of US August CPI Data"
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US August CPI data will be released, and this moment has attracted much attention from the market. Judging from the current market expectations and the data given by the Cleveland Fed, the broad CPI shows a positive expectation trend. The previous value was 2.9%, the market expectation dropped to 2.6%, and the value given by the Cleveland Fed was 2.56%. Both predicted that the broad CPI would fall, indicating that the market is optimistic about the decline in inflation.
In terms of core inflation, market expectations are consistent with those of the Cleveland Fed, both of which are equal to the data of last month, which can be said to be neither good nor bad, and are within the normal range.
If the results announced tonight are lower than market expectations, it will greatly boost user sentiment and provide strong support for the market's expected 25 basis point rate cut. After all, a rate cut caused by a decline in inflation has a different meaning from a rate cut caused by an economic recession (rising unemployment).
However, if the data exceeds the previous value, the market will feel depressed, but it is not expected to affect the Fed's decision to cut interest rates in September. As long as the data is not significantly increased, it is a relatively normal situation. However, it may have an impact on the dot plot released in September and the amount of interest rate cuts in September.
For Bitcoin and US stocks, if the CPI data develops according to market expectations, it will at least not be a bad thing, because it will be beneficial to the market and bring positive effects.
In short, the release of the US August CPI data tonight is like a stone thrown into the market, which will surely cause ripples. Let us wait and see what the result will be.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US August CPI data will be released, and this moment has attracted much attention from the market. Judging from the current market expectations and the data given by the Cleveland Fed, the broad CPI shows a positive expectation trend. The previous value was 2.9%, the market expectation dropped to 2.6%, and the value given by the Cleveland Fed was 2.56%. Both predicted that the broad CPI would fall, indicating that the market is optimistic about the decline in inflation.
In terms of core inflation, market expectations are consistent with those of the Cleveland Fed, both of which are equal to the data of last month, which can be said to be neither good nor bad, and are within the normal range.
If the results announced tonight are lower than market expectations, it will greatly boost user sentiment and provide strong support for the market's expected 25 basis point rate cut. After all, a rate cut caused by a decline in inflation has a different meaning from a rate cut caused by an economic recession (rising unemployment).
However, if the data exceeds the previous value, the market will feel depressed, but it is not expected to affect the Fed's decision to cut interest rates in September. As long as the data is not significantly increased, it is a relatively normal situation. However, it may have an impact on the dot plot released in September and the amount of interest rate cuts in September.
For Bitcoin and US stocks, if the CPI data develops according to market expectations, it will at least not be a bad thing, because it will be beneficial to the market and bring positive effects.
In short, the release of the US August CPI data tonight is like a stone thrown into the market, which will surely cause ripples. Let us wait and see what the result will be.
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Bitcoin followed the violent rise of the US stock market last night, resulting in the explosion of 120 million US dollars in short orders in the past 24 hours. From a technical perspective, after confirming the support, it began to fluctuate and climb higher. It first broke the 56,000 pressure level, and then swept higher in the US market, and directly broke through 58,000. There is a high probability that this wave of continuous killing has ended. The current trend has been repaired. In the short term, it depends on whether Bitcoin can stand firm at the 56,000 position after the callback. The view has been explained very intuitively, and it tends to be strong and long! In the short term, Bitcoin will fall back to 56,200-56,000, with a target of 58,500-59,000$BTC
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#Important News
1. Tether invested $100 million in Latin American agricultural giant Adecoagro;
2. The August non-farm payrolls were ambiguous, and the policy direction after the September rate cut remains to be seen;
3. Musk is expected to become the world's first trillionaire in 2027;
4. Aave co-founder Stani: Customized markets will be launched on the Ethereum mainnet in the next few weeks;
5. After the release of unemployment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has dropped to 30%;
6. Ripple CEO: The demand for Japanese yen stablecoins is "only a matter of time", but Ripple will consider the US market first;
7. Placeholder partner: Although BTC and ETH are in a consolidation period, the long-tail market still shows signs of strength.
1. Tether invested $100 million in Latin American agricultural giant Adecoagro;
2. The August non-farm payrolls were ambiguous, and the policy direction after the September rate cut remains to be seen;
3. Musk is expected to become the world's first trillionaire in 2027;
4. Aave co-founder Stani: Customized markets will be launched on the Ethereum mainnet in the next few weeks;
5. After the release of unemployment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has dropped to 30%;
6. Ripple CEO: The demand for Japanese yen stablecoins is "only a matter of time", but Ripple will consider the US market first;
7. Placeholder partner: Although BTC and ETH are in a consolidation period, the long-tail market still shows signs of strength.
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It is expected that Bitcoin BTC will fluctuate at the latest until the US CPI is released on Wednesday this week, and then start the last wave of sharp decline! At present, this rising wedge is more like a downward relay, not a bottoming pattern.
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Tonight will decide the fate of the cryptocurrency world. Whether the United States will decline or not, and whether the concerns about the financial crisis are true, will be revealed in the big non-farm data tonight. Yesterday's small non-farm ADP and other data were all minor, but the results were shocking. The number of new jobs added by ADP plummeted to 99,000, a record low in three and a half years, which put tonight's non-farm data under great pressure.
Rationally speaking, if ADP plummets, the probability that the big non-farm data will be lower than expected is quite high. However, ADP is a private company's employment data survey, which is more objective and neutral, while tonight's data is released by the U.S. Department of Labor, which is issued by the government. With the election imminent, will the big non-farm data be "beautified"? Personally, I think it would be a blessing if it can meet expectations tonight, and we should be mentally prepared to be lower than expected.
Rationally speaking, if ADP plummets, the probability that the big non-farm data will be lower than expected is quite high. However, ADP is a private company's employment data survey, which is more objective and neutral, while tonight's data is released by the U.S. Department of Labor, which is issued by the government. With the election imminent, will the big non-farm data be "beautified"? Personally, I think it would be a blessing if it can meet expectations tonight, and we should be mentally prepared to be lower than expected.
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Risk Warning on Friday
At 20:30, the U.S. announced the unemployment rate in August, with the market expectation of 4.20% and the previous value of 4.30%;
At 20:30, the U.S. announced the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in August, with the market expectation of an increase of 160,000 and the previous value of an increase of 114,000.
At 23:00, Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook.
At 20:30, the U.S. announced the unemployment rate in August, with the market expectation of 4.20% and the previous value of 4.30%;
At 20:30, the U.S. announced the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in August, with the market expectation of an increase of 160,000 and the previous value of an increase of 114,000.
At 23:00, Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook.
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Bitcoin will fluctuate greatly tonight. It is not recommended to operate the contract before the event is implemented. Spot is deployed at a low point. The decline is limited. On the contrary, there is a lot of room for BTC to move upward in the medium and long term. The support below is about 55,000--54,500. If this position is supported, it may go up to test the 60,000 mark
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There will be a big market tonight! The recent rise and fall of Bitcoin is arbitrary, but tonight there will be two very important indicators released, and the market will find its direction again. First is the small non-farm payrolls data ADP at 8:15 pm: previous value: 122,000. Market expectations: 144,000. Employment higher than expected is positive, lower than expected is negative, and there is no change if it meets expectations. Then there is the number of new claims for relief at 8:30: previous value: 231,000. Market expectations: 230,000. Unemployment lower than expected is positive, higher than expected is negative. Other data such as the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits are not the focus, but you can also pay attention to it. The general election is coming soon, and this data is likely to be beautify, so the probability of good news is quite high. In any case, we will see the result tonight!
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Bold prediction, don't criticize if you don't like it
The callback may end at any time. Bitcoin will fall back to the 56,000-55,000 range, with pressure at 57,500. If it breaks through, it will directly go up to 61,000 and 63,000.
The callback may end at any time. Bitcoin will fall back to the 56,000-55,000 range, with pressure at 57,500. If it breaks through, it will directly go up to 61,000 and 63,000.
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The idea of shorting in the early trading session has been confirmed. From the current point of view, 57200-57000 is definitely an important support position for Bitcoin. If it falls below 57000 today, or closes below 57000, then it will further promote the decline of Bitcoin to 56000-55000! However, in view of the recent sweeping pattern, do not chase shorts at will below 58000. It is easy to chase the floor, and there is a high probability that it will continue to fluctuate. Therefore, you can go long at 57200-57000 in the evening, and go short at 59500-59800.
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At the position of 58,000, Bitcoin has only fallen below the real body twice, and both were immediately swallowed by the big positive line. It has risen 2,700 points from yesterday's low point. The liquidation chart shows that there will be about 100 million short orders at the position of 59,800. Today, it is likely to rush above 60,000 once, and then explode the low short orders before it can start to fall. Moreover, there has been almost no continuous positive line counterattack recently, and the high-level range consolidation time is also long. This is a stagflation pattern. At present, it has gone out of the 1-hour level rebound. Observing the strength of this wave of rebound, it cannot effectively break through the 61,000-61,200 area, and will continue to test the low point in the future! On Tuesday, Bitcoin recommends rebounding to 60,300-60,500 shorts, with a target of 59,000-58,500
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There are only about two weeks left before the next Fed meeting. At present, interest rate cuts seem to have become the consensus of the market. However, whether it will be a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut, as well as the frequency of subsequent interest rate cuts, everything is still shrouded in the unknown fog.
There is no doubt that the Fed's decision will have a significant impact on the direction of Bitcoin in September. In particular, the various data indicators of the US economy in August play a vital role. This Wednesday's ADP employment data, Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, and Thursday's initial jobless claims, these data have undoubtedly become an important reference for the market to measure the intensity of the Fed's interest rate cuts announced in two weeks and the frequency of interest rate cuts thereafter.
It can be said that the various US data indicators to be announced this week are like a beacon guiding the future direction of Bitcoin. However, in recent times, favorable data have appeared in large numbers, but Bitcoin has not risen but fallen after trading sideways at a high level. The main reason is that this is a further digestion of the previous market bullish expectations.
Judging from the current market, the overall bullish pattern remains unchanged. However, short-term bearish sentiment has not been fully released, and short-term adjustments are inevitable. However, this short-term adjustment is not a bad thing. If Bitcoin can undergo a full round of adjustments before the Fed cuts interest rates, there will be more room and momentum for further increases in the future.
There is no doubt that the Fed's decision will have a significant impact on the direction of Bitcoin in September. In particular, the various data indicators of the US economy in August play a vital role. This Wednesday's ADP employment data, Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, and Thursday's initial jobless claims, these data have undoubtedly become an important reference for the market to measure the intensity of the Fed's interest rate cuts announced in two weeks and the frequency of interest rate cuts thereafter.
It can be said that the various US data indicators to be announced this week are like a beacon guiding the future direction of Bitcoin. However, in recent times, favorable data have appeared in large numbers, but Bitcoin has not risen but fallen after trading sideways at a high level. The main reason is that this is a further digestion of the previous market bullish expectations.
Judging from the current market, the overall bullish pattern remains unchanged. However, short-term bearish sentiment has not been fully released, and short-term adjustments are inevitable. However, this short-term adjustment is not a bad thing. If Bitcoin can undergo a full round of adjustments before the Fed cuts interest rates, there will be more room and momentum for further increases in the future.
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The highs are repeatedly under pressure, and the risk of retracement is increasing. Yesterday, the shorts continued to fall all day. In terms of the operation structure, it is still an adjustment market at the daily and weekly levels. Don't buy the bottom. Wait until this wave of decline is over and the daily level stabilizes, then it is time to buy the bottom. The main force is too bad. It keeps breaking through the support level day by day, madly inducing shorts, and creating the illusion that every rebound will fall. The previous several supports of 58100--57500 have been broken, and the next one is at 56000, but it is not suitable to chase the short at this time. The decline will not fall much. If it falls a little more, it will usher in a big rebound. $BTC