"Forecast and Impact of US August CPI Data"

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US August CPI data will be released, and this moment has attracted much attention from the market. Judging from the current market expectations and the data given by the Cleveland Fed, the broad CPI shows a positive expectation trend. The previous value was 2.9%, the market expectation dropped to 2.6%, and the value given by the Cleveland Fed was 2.56%. Both predicted that the broad CPI would fall, indicating that the market is optimistic about the decline in inflation.

In terms of core inflation, market expectations are consistent with those of the Cleveland Fed, both of which are equal to the data of last month, which can be said to be neither good nor bad, and are within the normal range.

If the results announced tonight are lower than market expectations, it will greatly boost user sentiment and provide strong support for the market's expected 25 basis point rate cut. After all, a rate cut caused by a decline in inflation has a different meaning from a rate cut caused by an economic recession (rising unemployment).

However, if the data exceeds the previous value, the market will feel depressed, but it is not expected to affect the Fed's decision to cut interest rates in September. As long as the data is not significantly increased, it is a relatively normal situation. However, it may have an impact on the dot plot released in September and the amount of interest rate cuts in September.

For Bitcoin and US stocks, if the CPI data develops according to market expectations, it will at least not be a bad thing, because it will be beneficial to the market and bring positive effects.

In short, the release of the US August CPI data tonight is like a stone thrown into the market, which will surely cause ripples. Let us wait and see what the result will be.