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#投资策略 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #独立思考 #市场机会

Bitcoin is facing a major test: should it expect an increase, or is it ready for a new round of decline?

Can the cyclical rise of four-year halving be staged?

From a technical point of view, the performance of Bitcoin prices in recent weeks has shown a typical state of long-short game. After this year's high, Bitcoin has gradually entered a consolidation period, with prices hovering around the $60,000 mark. The chart shows that the key resistance level is around $60,000, while the support levels are at $52,000 and $49,000 respectively. The market seems to be brewing a big move, but the direction is still unclear.

The Fed's interest rate decision next week may become a key event affecting Bitcoin's trend.

However, contrarian investors should think about the following questions: How much of the market has digested the expectation of interest rate hikes? Will the Fed's decision bring unexpected "dovish" information, causing the market to rise suddenly? According to past experience, when investors are generally bearish on the market, it is often an opportunity to enter the market in reverse. At this moment, the market is full of pessimistic expectations about the possibility of interest rate hikes. Contrarian investors may seize the extreme market sentiment and profit from it.

In the range of $50,000 to $52,000, when the market falls rapidly, contrarian investors can enter the market in batches appropriately. Technically, the support level is strong, coupled with the reversal signals of KDJ and RSI indicators, this may be a good time to buy the bottom in the short term.

If the market does not fall sharply as expected after the Fed meeting, contrarian investors can pay attention to the price of Bitcoin breaking through the resistance level of $60,000. Once it breaks through, the price is expected to rise further, and the next target can be set at $65,000 or even higher.

#特朗普哈里斯辩论未提及加密货币 #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #比特币年底能否突破10万美元？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #新币挖矿HMSTR

#今日市场观点

Is Bitcoin about to crash or a good opportunity to buy at the bottom? The main force's trend is exposed, and retail investors panic and enter the game!

On the surface, the weak non-agricultural data increases the possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and monetary easing theoretically helps to drive up the price of Bitcoin.

However, contrarian investors should realize that the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have already been partially reflected in the price. If market sentiment is too optimistic and the market makers take the opportunity to sell, then the current rise may be a trap. As we have seen many times in the past, market makers often use macro-good news to create short-term rising markets and induce retail investors to enter the market, but then the market reverses and falls. Therefore, the short-term price rebound may not be a real "good news", but a kind of accumulation or shipment behavior of the main force.

Market reaction and emotional fluctuations: avoid the risk of blindly following the trend
After the release of non-agricultural data, Bitcoin has fluctuated to a certain extent, but what really affects the market is the sentiment of investors. Driven by such macro data, market sentiment is prone to fall into two extremes:
Some investors will enter the market and go long due to the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up short-term prices;
Other investors will choose to avoid risks and leave the market due to concerns about economic recession and long-term risks.

From the current technical perspective, the key support level of Bitcoin is $52,000, while the resistance level is in the $57,000 to $58,000 area. Next, the market may further fluctuate and adjust, but this is a good time for contrarian investors to look for opportunities. Calmly deploying when the market is panicking often brings rich returns.
#美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #小非农增幅创3年多新低 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？

$ETH $BTC $BNB

#今日市场观点

"Bitcoin has plummeted! 52,000 is in danger, and the banker's washout conspiracy has been exposed. Do you still dare to buy the bottom?"

I have previously pointed out that the support level of $55,200 is difficult to maintain. Now the market has deteriorated significantly, and many investors are confused: How should the market go next? Can $52,000 be sustained?

After the release of non-agricultural data, Bitcoin briefly rebounded, and the market's expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve amplified.

This rebound was not accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, and the bulls lacked strength. Retail investors have been chasing higher in this wave of rise, mistakenly believing that the positive non-agricultural data will bring about a sustained rebound. However, this is the classic routine of the main force to induce long shipments.

Market sentiment has deteriorated significantly. Even if Bitcoin shows signs of support near $52,000 in the short term, the possibility of market makers completing the washout by further testing the price cannot be ruled out. We should be wary of the occurrence of false breaks. Market makers may temporarily lower the price below $52,000, inducing retail investors to continue selling, and then quickly raise the price to complete the accumulation of funds.

If market sentiment continues to deteriorate, we could see Bitcoin fall below $52,000 and even further to $50,000 or lower.

Possible market trends and operating strategies

1. Opportunities for rebound after false breakout
Observe whether $52,000 is really effectively broken below. If the market rebounds quickly after a short period of consolidation below $52,000, this is a signal that the bookmakers have finished collecting funds. At that time, entering the market to go long may be a safer strategy.

2. Risk of falling below $52,000
If Bitcoin effectively falls below $52,000, accompanied by increased trading volume and strengthening of short sentiment, this means that it may enter a new round of decline. $50,000 will become the next key support level

Watch to see if there will be a false break below $52,000

If the market continues to deteriorate and falls below the $50,000 support level, you need to operate more cautiously and wait for a better entry point

When most people are panicking, you should observe calmly; when most people are chasing the rise, you should be more vigilant. The repeated fluctuations in the market are the dealer's game#美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #小非农增幅创3年多新低 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？

$BTC $ETH $BNB

"Will Bitcoin collapse tonight? The shocking scam behind the non-agricultural data, the dealer has already set up a trap for you to fall into!"

According to market consensus expectations, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States in August is expected to increase by 160,000, compared with 114,000 in the previous month. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.3% to 4.2%.

1. Will bad news become good news?
Weaker non-agricultural data is often seen by the market as a signal to promote the Fed's loose monetary policy. The market expects the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts and provide more liquidity to support economic recovery. Increased liquidity usually brings more capital inflows, which drives prices up.
If tonight's non-agricultural data is weaker than expected, the market may overreact, and the Fed will take more easing measures, which will drive Bitcoin to rebound in the short term.

2. Does strong data mean a plunge?
If the non-agricultural data is stronger than expected, the market will re-evaluate the Fed's monetary policy path. Will this "strong data = bad news" reaction be over-interpreted?
Many investors and institutions have viewed Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against inflation, not just a short-term risk asset. Therefore, even if the non-agricultural data is strong, the market makers may use the changes in market sentiment to wash the market, causing retail investors to panic sell and take the opportunity to absorb funds.

The routine of the market makers to wash the market
Before and after the release of major data, the market makers often complete the absorption or shipment by creating illusions and taking advantage of short-term market fluctuations. The following are common market makers' routines:

1. Create false breakthroughs: The market makers often manipulate prices to deliberately break through key support or resistance levels to induce retail investors to chase up or sell down. After the release of non-agricultural data, market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and Bitcoin may have false breakthroughs

2. Amplify market sentiment fluctuations: The market makers amplify the market's reaction to non-agricultural data by increasing trading volume or manipulating orders. For example, if the data is weaker than expected, they may create a wave of false declines, forcing holders to sell, and then take over at a low price.

Remember, the market is always anti-human, and the real winners are often those who bravely buy in fear and decisively leave in greed.
#小非农增幅创3年多新低 #非农就业数据即将公布 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #以太坊基金会 $BTC $ETH

Countdown to Bitcoin's plunge? Non-farm data may detonate the market, and the price may fall below $50,000?

The August non-farm data of the United States will be released on September 6. Will Bitcoin plummet?

Before the release of non-farm data, some technical signals have appeared in the daily candlestick chart of Bitcoin

$58,000 was broken, and the next major support level may be around $52,000, which is also an important low point in the near future. If it falls below this position, Bitcoin may quickly drop to the range of $48,000 to $45,000.

The MACD indicator shows that Bitcoin is still in a weak position, with the fast and slow lines running below the zero axis, and the bar chart shows that the short-selling force is still dominant.

The KDJ indicator shows that Bitcoin is already in an oversold state, with both the K value and the D value around 20, indicating that the market may rebound in the short term.

The view of contrarian investors: Will it plummet?

The market's view on Bitcoin is generally cautious, and most investors will choose to wait and see or sell in advance. However, as a contrarian investor, I think it is unlikely that Bitcoin will plummet before the release of non-farm data.

In the case of bearish market sentiment, many investors may have already arranged short orders in advance, which provides opportunities for contrarian investors. Once the non-farm data is positive, short covering and the influx of buying may drive Bitcoin to rebound quickly to more than $60,000 in the short term.

Although the non-farm data on September 6 may become an important node in the trend of Bitcoin, the real timing of the plunge may be delayed.

If the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy do not change significantly, Bitcoin may have a period of shock consolidation. From October to November, as global economic and inflationary pressures further increase, market volatility will increase, and Bitcoin may usher in a sharp decline before the end of the year.

Contrarian investors should be prepared to look for buying opportunities at lower prices (such as $52,000 or $45,000)

#加密市场急跌 #非农就业数据即将公布 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #英伟达财报


$BTC $ETH

$BNB

Is Bitcoin about to plummet? Experts predict: The fourth quarter may trigger a major market shock, and the price may fall below $45,000!

Will Bitcoin plummet? What is the time window for a possible plummet? And what is the possible target price for the decline?

Currently, Bitcoin is near a key support level (around $58,000). Although the bulls have successfully defended this support many times in the short term, the support will gradually weaken with each test.

The price of Bitcoin has formed a relatively obvious downward channel on the daily chart. The price continues to test the support level but fails to form an effective rebound. Technical indicators such as MACD and RSI all show that the market is weak.

But what really triggered the plunge was the "black swan" event in the market. Be alert to the following factors that may trigger a plunge in Bitcoin:

1. Sudden deterioration of the global macroeconomy: If global economic data suddenly deteriorates, especially if the US economic data is lower than expected, it may cause investors to sell risky assets on a large scale, including Bitcoin.

2. Sudden changes in regulatory policies: The regulatory policies of various governments on cryptocurrencies have always been a key factor affecting market sentiment. If a country suddenly introduces strict regulatory measures, it may trigger panic selling in the market.

3. Market liquidity is exhausted: The liquidity of the Bitcoin market is relatively limited. Once a large-scale sell-off occurs, the market may quickly fall into a liquidity crisis, resulting in a sharp drop in prices.

Bitcoin's possible plunge time window

1. The market may usher in a critical moment after the Federal Reserve's September meeting. If the Fed's policy statement is not as expected by the market, the price of Bitcoin may plummet in the following period.

2. The end of the year is usually the time for investors to adjust their portfolios. If Bitcoin's performance in the fourth quarter is still weak, it is not ruled out that some institutional investors will choose to sell Bitcoin to lock in profits or reduce losses. The fourth quarter, especially November and December, may be a high-risk window for Bitcoin to plummet.

In extreme cases, Bitcoin may even fall below $48,000 and seek support at $45,000 or even lower.

These potential support levels are opportunities to buy on dips.

#非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #比特币走势分析 #比特币暴跌

Bitcoin is about to fall below the key support of $58,000? The power of the short side is surging, and the market panic has fully erupted!

#今日市场观点

The current price fluctuates around the key support level of $58,000, which has been verified many times in the past few weeks. However, the more frequently the support level is tested, the more likely it is to fail.

Will this support level eventually be broken? And once it is broken, how will the future trend of Bitcoin evolve?

If the support level of $58,000 is finally lost, it will mean a significant deterioration in market sentiment, and the increase in the power of the short side may bring a larger downward trend

The closer support level below is around $55,200, which is a previous low point, but contrarian investors need to be vigilant. If market sentiment deteriorates further, the support of $55,200 may also be difficult to hold. The further support level may be at $52,000, or even lower to around $48,888.

From the perspective of contrarian investors, over-reliance on technical indicators may lead to misjudgment. The overall sentiment of the current market and the macro environment are equally important. If global macroeconomic factors such as interest rate policy and geopolitical risks continue to put pressure on the market, Bitcoin may fall further following the overall market weakness.

If the price of Bitcoin falls sharply due to breaking the support level, it may be an opportunity to buy on the dip for investors with sufficient risk tolerance.

#Telegram创始人获保释 #比特币走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #PCE数据

#今日市场观点

Fed rate cut: cure or delaying tactic?

Whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting as expected by the market has become the focus of many investors. However, can a 25 basis point rate cut really improve the global economic environment? And what impact will it have on the cryptocurrency market represented by Bitcoin?

A 25 basis point rate cut will undoubtedly ease the pressure on some companies and consumers with tight funds, but in the context of slowing global economic growth, this policy is more like a "drop in the bucket". Especially for those economies that rely heavily on exports, the weakening of the US dollar that may be caused by the US rate cut will have a negative impact on their exports, further dragging down the pace of global economic recovery.

For Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets, the Fed's rate cut may have more complex effects. On the one hand, a low interest rate environment usually leads to funds seeking higher-yield investment channels, and cryptocurrencies may therefore usher in a wave of capital inflows. Especially in the context of Bitcoin being regarded as "digital gold" by more and more investors, it may benefit as a tool to hedge the risks of the traditional financial system.
However, on the other hand, if the rate cut fails to effectively boost the economy and instead triggers further market concerns about the economic outlook, funds may flow back to more traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold. At this point, the Bitcoin market may face the risk of capital outflows, especially as investors' risk appetite declines amid increasing global economic uncertainty.

The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is increasing, but contrarian investors should be cautious about this expectation. The improvement of the global economic environment cannot rely solely on the single means of rate cuts

Contrarian investors should be wary of market overreactions and remain calm and rational

#美联储何时降息？ #比特币走势分析 #PCE数据 #Telegram创始人获保释

$BTC $ETH

#Telegram创始人获保释

Nvidia's financial report and the trap of "good news is exhausted"

Although Nvidia's financial report showed strong growth data, the market reacted with "good news is exhausted", and the crypto market was weak. This phenomenon is not surprising. Investors often choose to take profits after the release of major good news, which leads to increased downward pressure on the market.

This is actually a trap carefully designed by the market makers. They take advantage of the short-term volatility of the market to complete their shipments at high levels.

The market is now entering a phase of downward volatility, especially before the release of the non-farm payroll report next week. This reduction in volatility makes people mistakenly believe that market sentiment is stable, but the actual situation may not be the case. The decline in volatility is usually accompanied by a wait-and-see sentiment in the market, which is often a precursor to the next round of market operations by the market makers.

#Telegram创始人获保释 #英伟达财报 #OpenSea收到韦尔斯通知 #美联储何时降息？ #比特币走势分析

Another wave of manipulation by market makers: Bitcoin falsely breaks out and actually pulls back, with a bigger conspiracy hidden behind it!

I once warned that Bitcoin only relied on Powell's hint of a rate cut, which was far from enough to support a continued surge in prices, and now all this is gradually coming true.
In the past few weeks, Bitcoin has formed a seemingly strong breakthrough at the 55-day MA, and the market is jubilant. However, just when everyone thought the bull market was about to make a comeback, the price quickly turned around and returned to below the 55MA. This is a typical "false breakthrough"

Powell's hint of a rate cut: just a flash in the pan

As I said before, the fundamentals of the global economy have not changed substantially, inflationary pressure remains, and economic recovery is still weak. More importantly, the liquidity problem in the market has not been fundamentally solved, and the effect of the rate cut is only a short-term stimulus, which cannot bring long-term upward momentum.

A small rebound under technical support: just an appearance

In the long run, the market lacks substantial good news. Even if there is a short-term rebound, it cannot change the overall weak trend of the market. Uncertainty in the global economy still exists, and Bitcoin, as a risky asset, is difficult to obtain sufficient financial support in this environment. What's worse is that once the interest rate cut is actually implemented, it may trigger new risk events, or even black swan events.

Black swans in front: greater risks are still behind
Although the interest rate cut will inject liquidity into the market in the short term, in the context of the fragile global economy, this liquidity may bring more market instability. Inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and global supply chain disruptions may all become potential risks in the Bitcoin market.

Once market sentiment reverses and the dealer completes the shipment, the impact of the black swan event may cause the Bitcoin price to collapse instantly. For those investors who blindly chase high prices, the result can only be that they are locked in at a high position by the dealer.

Beware of the dealer's tricks and look at the market rationally

Waiting for the market's real trend reversal signal is the most sensible investment strategy at present

Remember that the market will never be a one-sided market, and the dealer's tricks will not only appear when it rises
#美联储何时降息？ #Telegram创始人获保释 #比特币走势分析 #今日市场观点

"Hero or scapegoat? From Binance CZ to Telegram's Pavel Durov"

This series of actions has made many investors uneasy and even triggered panic selling in the market. However, as a contrarian investor, are there undiscovered investment opportunities hidden behind these negative news?

Pavel Durov: A technology pioneer across borders
PD is undoubtedly a legend in the global technology community. Not only did he relocate Telegram to Dubai in 2017, he also obtained French citizenship in 2021. In addition, he also holds citizenship of the United Arab Emirates and the Caribbean country of St. Kitts and Nevis. Multiple nationality backgrounds can be seen as a precaution against political risks around the world.

As one of the world's largest encrypted communication platforms, Telegram has a large user base and strong technical strength. Especially in areas where speech is restricted, it has a large number of loyal users.

The arrest of Binance founder CZ and the arrest of Pavel Durov have certain similarities, both of which indicate that countries around the world are increasing their regulatory efforts on cryptocurrencies and technology giants.

CZ's arrest once triggered a sharp drop in Binance Coin (BNB), but then the market gradually digested the impact of this incident and BNB prices also recovered.
Similarly, Durov's arrest also led to a drop in the price of Toncoin (TON), which is related to Telegram.

Durov's multiple nationalities and global influence mean that he has the resources and means to deal with this series of political and legal challenges. Whether in France or other countries, Durov is likely to use his legal team and social resources to push the case in his favor. This also means that the long-term operation of Telegram and TON will not be fatally hit by Durov's personal problems.

In the long run, Telegram and TON's technical foundation and user base still have strong support.
#Telegram创始人被捕 #TON生态 #赵长鹏 #币安热门推荐 #新币挖矿TON $BTC $BNB

"The Great Escape or the Great Opportunity? Why the TON crash could be a golden moment for contrarian investors?"

Telegram founder Pavel Durov was arrested, and the price of TON (Toncoin) plummeted by 25%. Investors sold their TONs in an attempt to escape this seemingly ominous "eye of the storm". But as a contrarian investor, the question we have to ask is not "How do I escape?" but "Is this a great buying opportunity?

Could this crash be the golden moment?

1. Lessons from history: Opportunities in market panic
Historically, BNB (Binance Coin CZ) has also experienced a sharp drop when it encountered similar negative news. However, when the market gradually realized that these short-term panics did not affect its long-term value, BNB quickly rebounded to a new high. Does the same script apply to TON?

2. Technical strength and ecosystem support
TON's core value does not only come from its connection with Telegram. The high throughput and low transaction fees of the TON blockchain make it popular among decentralized application (DApp) developers. Although Pavel Durov’s personal situation may cause short-term uncertainty, but the decentralized nature of blockchain means that TON’s technology and applications will not be fundamentally affected by personal changes

Over time, more developers and users will flock to the TON ecosystem, which happened when Ethereum faced early technical challenges and market volatility. Ethereum eventually not only overcame these difficulties, but also became the mainstay of decentralized applications.

3. Contrarian investment strategy

The current panic is mainly caused by external events, rather than inherent problems in blockchain technology or ecosystems. Short-term price fluctuations are over-exaggerated, which provides investors with an opportunity to enter the market at a lower price.

Considering TON’s user base and technical advantages, once market sentiment picks up, the price rebound may be very rapid

4. Risk management and long-term layout
Contrarian investment is not without risk
It is recommended to adopt a batch buying strategy, divide the funds into several parts, enter gradually, and reduce the average cost when the price falls further. In addition, it is also necessary to set a reasonable stop loss to prevent unexpected situations in the market
#Telegram创始人被捕 #TON生态 #Toncoin #新币挖矿TON

Powell hinted at a rate cut, will the Fed make a big move in September? Bitcoin soared to 65,000! Is it a real breakthrough or ?

Yesterday, Powell mentioned at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting that "the time is ripe for rate cuts" and hinted that the Fed may start a rate cut cycle at the upcoming September meeting. Although he did not provide a specific path and speed for rate cuts, he only emphasized that future policies will depend on "upcoming data" and "balance of risks", but these words have been interpreted by the market and major institutional media as a strong signal of a September rate cut.

1. Market sentiment is ignited, and Bitcoin breaks through key pressure levels
Driven by this optimistic sentiment, Bitcoin has also strongly broken through the $62,000 pressure level that was previously considered difficult to break through, and rushed to $65,000 in one fell swoop.
On the surface, this is a positive market reaction, which seems to indicate that Bitcoin is about to start a new round of big gains. However, is the logic behind it really so simple? Does the main force have a deeper plot by pulling the market through this painless "good news"?

Is the real trend started? If Bitcoin can hold steady and continue to rise after breaking through $65,000, accompanied by an increase in trading volume and a strengthening of technical indicators, then this breakthrough may indeed mean the beginning of a new round of gains. But the premise is that the market needs to continue to have new positive support, rather than just relying on an ambiguous hint of a rate cut.

Guard against over-optimism: Although the expectation of a rate cut may support Bitcoin's short-term rise, Powell's uncertainty about future policies should not be ignored. Once market sentiment changes, it may quickly trigger adjustments.

Whether this breakthrough is a real trend start or a "conspiracy" to lure more, we should keep in mind that the market is always unpredictable
Reasonable control of positions: In the case of high market uncertainty, investors are advised to reasonably control their positions, avoid excessive pursuit of high prices, and maintain a certain degree of financial flexibility to cope with possible market fluctuations.
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #鲍威尔说了什么 #比特币政策 #WBTC $BTC $ETH $SOL

#今日市场观点

Is Bitcoin going to fly? After 7 months of silence, it soared by $300,000? Or is it just a false alarm?

Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $60,000-$70,000 range for seven months. Many fans are asking: If Bitcoin really has the potential to rise to $300,000, why hasn't it started yet? Why is it still consolidating now, and even fell to $49,000 at one point?

Supply-side pressure: In the high range, some early investors and miners and even governments choose to cash out, which creates considerable selling pressure in the market and hinders further price increases.

Demand-side caution: Despite the long-term bullish sentiment, many investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude against the backdrop of increasing economic uncertainty, resulting in insufficient demand to break through the current price range.

Federal Reserve monetary policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is one of the important factors affecting Bitcoin prices. If the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, raises interest rates, and market liquidity decreases, the attractiveness of risky assets such as Bitcoin may decline, leading to price pressure.

Global economic uncertainty: Global economic uncertainties such as the risk of recession, rising energy prices, and supply chain crises have also made investors more cautious about investing in risky assets such as Bitcoin.

$70,000 is an important psychological barrier. Breaking through this barrier requires not only capital promotion, but also a significant improvement in market sentiment. The current cautious and wait-and-see market sentiment means that it is difficult for prices to break through this key resistance level without major positive stimulus.

Key support level: The $49,000 retracement tested the key support level of the market. If this support level can be maintained and consolidated between $60,000-$70,000, it shows that there is still a certain buying power in the market, which is a positive signal for the potential rise in future prices.
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #比特币突破7万美元 #走势预测 $ETH $BNB $SOL

#今日市场观点

Is Ethereum about to surge? Be careful! The liquidation storm is a hidden danger!

The hidden signal of the liquidation chart

According to the latest liquidation chart data, if Ethereum falls below $2,500, the long order liquidation intensity has reached $821 million?

With the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting tonight approaching, the tension in the crypto market is gradually heating up.

The increase in liquidation intensity means that a large number of leveraged transactions have accumulated in the market, and these leveraged transactions may cause violent price fluctuations in the short term. Especially when the price of Ethereum approaches the liquidation trigger point, the market may show two very different trends:

1. Short-term surge: price surge caused by short order liquidation
If the price of Ethereum rises further and triggers a large number of short order liquidations, the price may quickly break through the new resistance level. The influx of buy orders caused by liquidation may drive the price to surge rapidly in the short term, which is the "surge" moment that many investors are looking forward to. However, as a contrarian investor, I am more concerned about the sustainability of this surge. Typically, a rise triggered by liquidation is short-lived because it relies heavily on market panic and a short-term influx of funds. Once this sentiment subsides, the market is likely to quickly pull back or even reverse.

2. False breakout: Risk of pullback caused by long order liquidation
If market sentiment suddenly turns pessimistic due to Powell's speech, causing Ethereum prices to fall and triggering long order liquidation, the price may quickly fall back to the previous support level or even lower. This situation usually leads to a "false breakout" in the market, that is, the price briefly falls below the key support level and then rebounds quickly. False breakouts are often part of a market correction, which traps many investors who chase high prices.

And those contrarian investors who build positions at low levels have the opportunity to get a better entry point when the price pulls back.

Be prepared for market reversals
If the market experiences a sharp pullback or false breakout, contrarian investors should be ready to take advantage of the market reversal. Maintaining sufficient cash reserves and a flexible investment strategy will help to respond quickly after the market returns to rationality.
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #鲍威尔说了什么 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $ETH $BNB $SOL

#今日市场观点

SHIB launches Web3 games, Memes coins enter the market crazily! Opportunity or bubble?

Recently, SHIB announced that it will develop Web3 games

As more and more cryptocurrency projects enter the Web3 and game fields, investors have high hopes for this trend

1. The potential and challenges of Web3 games
Web3 games are hailed as the next outlet for cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, which can provide a decentralized gaming experience and bring new economic incentives to players. The joining of SHIB shows that Memes coins are also seeking new growth points to get rid of the speculative attributes in the market. However, Web3 games are still in the early stages of development, and technology, user experience and market acceptance are facing huge challenges. As contrarian investors, we need to take these uncertainties into account and avoid excessive pursuit.

2. SHIB's strategic motivation: real innovation or marketing gimmick?
SHIB chose to enter the Web3 game field, largely to enhance its influence and community participation in the cryptocurrency market. But it is worth noting that SHIB was originally born as a Memes coin, and the value support behind it is not solid. Although Web3 games may bring new user groups and application scenarios to SHIB, we cannot ignore that this may only be a short-term marketing strategy, especially in the current market sentiment.

In-depth study of the actual progress of the project
When investing in Web3 game projects, the key is to pay attention to their actual development progress and market feedback. The project's technical capabilities, game design, and user growth are all important considerations. Investors should carefully analyze SHIB's project progress reports and community reactions to avoid blindly entering the market due to temporary market enthusiasm.

Maintain diversified investments and spread risks
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, especially Memes coins and emerging Web3 projects. Investors are advised to maintain diversified investments and spread funds across different asset classes to reduce the risk of failure of a single project. $SHIB
#web3动态 #GameFi #杰克逊霍尔年会 #元宇宙

Bitcoin is about to surge? Don't worry! Powell's speech tonight may contain a shocking scam?

At 22:00 tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Will Bitcoin rise or fall? $$

1. Potential impact of Powell's speech
Monetary policy tone: If Powell emphasizes the continued maintenance of tight monetary policy, the market may have negative sentiment towards risky assets such as Bitcoin, reducing its probability of breaking through $62,000
Economic outlook assessment: If Powell shows greater concern about the economic outlook and hints at possible interest rate cuts or looser monetary policies, this may boost market sentiment and increase the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000

2. The probability of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000
From the technical side and market sentiment, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000 is not very high
Strong technical resistance: Near $62,000 is an important technical resistance level
Cautious market sentiment: Due to the relatively cautious market sentiment before Powell's speech, investors generally took a wait-and-see attitude, which may suppress the upward momentum of Bitcoin prices

3. Risk Assessment of False Breakouts
A false breakout is when the price briefly breaks through a key resistance level and then quickly falls back. Under the current market conditions, the risk of a false breakout has increased significantly
Increased market volatility: Powell's speech will increase market volatility, and there may be a sharp rise in prices in the short term. Due to the large amount of leveraged trading in the market, once the price breaks through $62,000, a large number of short orders may be forced to close, causing prices to push up further. However, if this rise is driven by short-term factors, the market may quickly pull back and form a false breakout
Investor sentiment fluctuations: The current market sentiment is relatively sensitive and is easily affected by Powell's speech and has short-term extreme reactions. Once the market finds that there is no substantial positive news, investors may quickly sell off, causing prices to fall back
The probability of a false breakout is very high
Combining technical analysis and market sentiment, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $62,000 tonight is relatively low. Even if a breakthrough occurs, there is a high risk of a false breakout. Contrarian investors should remain vigilant and should not blindly follow up in short-term fluctuations, but should wait for market sentiment to cool before operating. $ETH $SOL #杰克逊霍尔年会 #鲍威尔说了什么 #美联储何时降息？ #走势预测

Bitcoin is about to usher in a big liquidation storm! Huge short orders may detonate the market. Is it really the right time to enter the market?

If the price of Bitcoin breaks through $62,000, the accumulated short order liquidation intensity on the mainstream cryptocurrency exchange (CEX) will reach $1.205 billion; conversely, if the price of Bitcoin falls below $59,000, the long order liquidation intensity will reach $1.092 billion. This means that the market may usher in a liquidation storm, and potential price fluctuations will trigger a large-scale capital surge.

Don't be carried away by market sentiment, stay calm!

For contrarian investors, this liquidation chart shows that there are huge potential risks in the market, not a simple "entry time". The following are some in-depth analysis and suggestions:

1. Violent market fluctuations caused by liquidation
Market liquidations are usually accompanied by huge price fluctuations. When a large number of contracts are liquidated, prices will rise or fall rapidly. As the data shows, once the price breaks through or falls below a key level, the market may experience a short-term sharp rebound or pullback. This volatility may be a profit opportunity for ordinary investors, but for contrarian investors, they should pay more attention to the calm time after the market sentiment overreacts.

2. The battle between short and long orders
There are a lot of short and long orders in the current market, which means that the market direction is very likely to change dramatically in a short period of time. Usually, the first reaction to breaking through or falling below a key level will trigger panic buying or selling in the market, which will push the price to move faster in one direction. However, this movement is often short-lived (false breakthrough), and the market will eventually return to rationality. Contrarian investors should remain calm in such extreme market conditions, not blindly follow market sentiment, and avoid entering the market during high volatility.

3. Contrarian investment strategy: wait for opportunities after the market calms down
After the market is cleared, prices tend to quickly pull back to reasonable levels. This pullback may be a good opportunity for contrarian investors to enter the market, especially when market sentiment cools down.

Keep cash reserves and be prepared for emergencies
In the current market environment, if the market moves further down, better investment opportunities may appear. Contrarian investors should remain flexible and be ready to seize opportunities brought by market corrections.

#合约爆仓 #比特币走势分析 #杰克逊霍尔年会