Crypto trading community, high-win rate traders provide potential spot tracking, contract trading and market analysis;
Early chain token analysis;
Provide rich crypto trading and chain knowledge tutorials.
Follow the official account: Rough Daily
Customer service wei: cucao999

Others - Update
Others' failure to break the 9.4% resistance level has caused mid-cap coins to significantly underperform BTC or high-cap coins like SOL. As warned a few days ago, some altcoins are approaching the August 5 lows due to weak mid-cap dominance and BTC's failure to reclaim previous range lows.
Since the warning, most altcoins are down 15% to 25%. I recommend a two-pronged approach: wait for the 9.4% resistance area in Others to flip and look for a structural change, or use the Others chart to bid for mid-cap coins at the right levels, preferably on HTF. On HTF, my plan is clear

#今日市场观点
Total2- Update

Total 2 is still trading in a tight range. As suggested on Monday, as long as it trades in this range, PA will be volatile and any leveraged trades should be considered scalping. The plan for Total 2 remains the same: I expect more volatility for ETH and altcoins only if Total 2 manages to flip the 906B area and turn it into support. Once flipped, you will most likely be able to retest this area. On the other hand, 850B is a level that bulls should hold. Lose this area and I think we will trade a lot lower. Which scenario will happen will probably depend on external factors related to geopolitics and macroeconomics, including today's CPI data.

#美国PPI数据即将公布

PPI Inflation Data

The first important data of the week will be released tomorrow. The PPI inflation data will be released at 8:30 CET. PPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month. Any data that is in line with expectations or below expectations will be bullish for the dollar as it will keep the dollar weak as a rate cut in September is more likely. A PPI that is above expectations is quite bearish as it will make it more difficult to cut rates in September as inflation is not in line with expectations. The market is expecting a rate cut due to recent recession fears.

Powell made it clear at the last FOMC meeting that a rate cut in September would only be considered if inflation data is in line with expectations. I personally do not expect a lot of risk aversion ahead of the PPI and CPI releases as inflation has been in line with expectations for the past few months. Any dips could be due to geopolitical news. The market knows this and will most likely try to buy ahead of good inflation data. If we put money in on Wednesday's CPI release, I think this can become a sell the news event

#今日市场观点

OTHERS Dominance - Update

Mid-cap coins have fallen by 10% to 15% and OTHERS dominance is still below the 9.40% area which needs to flip to support. OTHERS dominance is at resistance and mid-cap coins can suffer a lot during market pullbacks and show relative weakness against some high-cap coins and $BTC when the market is trending. Therefore, it is important to only look for spot or long-term investment opportunities in mid-cap coins after a drop rather than chasing green candles.

#今日市场观点 ⚜️Token unlock:
August 9:
🔓IMX token unlock ($31.87 million / 2.11%)
🔓XAI token unlock ($7.11 million / 6.9%)

August 11:
🔓FORT token unlock ($60,700 / 0.01%)
🔓GLMR token unlock ($424,050 / 0.34%)
🔓ENA token unlock ($3.61 million / 0.82%)
🔓IO token unlock ($2.95 million / 2.22%)

August 12:
🔓APT token unlock ($52.14 million / 2.41%)

August 14:
🔓SAND token unlock ($46.07 million / 9%)

🔓CYBER tokens unlocked ($5.06 million / 8.54%)

August 15:
🔓STRK tokens unlocked ($21.76 million / 3.95%)
🔓RENDER tokens unlocked ($3.09 million / 0.19%)
🔓EUL tokens unlocked ($184.22 million / 0.25%)

August 16:
🔓NYM tokens unlocked ($273.34 million / 0.36%)
🔓ARB tokens unlocked ($42.25 million / 2.77%)

August 17:
🔓APE tokens unlocked ($8.09 million / 2.31%)
🔓ASTR tokens unlocked ($490.12 million / 0.14%)

Jobless claims came in at 233K, below the 241K expected, which is why $BTC BTC suddenly spiked. Good data can ease some of the pressure associated with recession fears. A single data point doesn't indicate that a recession might not be coming at some point, but if you're speculating on a short-term recovery in the stock market, then this is good. The dollar is also rebounding as the likelihood of an emergency rate cut after this data is becoming less and less likely. This is why these events matter!

#加密市场反弹 Best Performer in Sector: AI x Meme

Since the recent market crash, there has been a huge difference in performance among AI tokens. TAO leads the market with a 74% gain, while RENDER, NEAR, and FET have been lagging behind. If you want to add AI, I think you should focus on TAO on the next pullback. FET and RENDER have underperformed since the rebrand:

$TAO : 74%
AIOZ: 50%
AKT: 36%
$RENDER : 32%
$NEAR : 23%
FET: 17%

On the other hand, meme tokens have shown a strong rebound after a huge downtrend before the market crash. Popcat leads the pack because it has a lower market cap and is generally more volatile due to its strong Sol. BONK and PEPE lag relative to other meme tokens. I did not include higher market cap coins like Doge or Shiba because the comparison is meaningless given the huge difference in market cap.

POPCAT: 137%
MEW: 68%
WIF: 58%
BRETT: 54%
PEPE: 34%
BONK: 29%

The percentage increase is measured from the bottom price to the current price. The chart may show a different order of coins because it also includes the percentage drop before the coins reached their local bottom.

Total 2 Analysis
Total 2 faces huge resistance in the 850B area and is having a hard time breaking through. This is also due to weakness in ETH and mid-cap coins, but there are a few exceptions. Breaking through this level, I think a move into the 950B-940B area is possible. This would lead to a massive growth and stronger altcoins.

Nevertheless, opening new long positions here is riskier as you would be speculating on a breakout move rather than bidding on a pullback more safely. I personally am waiting for this level to turn into support before considering new swing positions.

Market Overview: Morning Reflection

The day after the Japanese stock market crash, the S&P 500 had a nice recovery, but yesterday the S&P 500 fell 2.5%, which also led to a correction in the cryptocurrency market. BTC saw a strong rise only after the US stock market closed. This once again shows that the direction of BTC will depend entirely on the performance of the stock market in the coming weeks. Whether BTC has bottomed depends on whether the stock market can rebound. Everything else is unimportant.

Given the importance of macroeconomic developments to the cryptocurrency market, we need to monitor different events and data to understand the direction of the stock market. For many years, I have been looking for signs of weakness in the US economy, hoping that this would increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but now times have changed and we look for data that shows that the economy is actually stronger than expected, as this will ease people's fears of a recession.

No matter how optimistic the cryptocurrency market is currently, it cannot beat the fear of a recession or an actual recession. Bad data from the US economy will exacerbate this fear.

Today's financial markets will focus on initial jobless claims, which is a data related to unemployment. High unemployment was the main source of recession fears a few days ago, which is why this data has become more important than ever. If today’s data shows that fewer jobless claims are filed than expected, then recession fears will ease further, which is also good for stocks and BTC. On the contrary, if it exceeds expectations, fears will increase. I will share a separate article on this event today.

Today is a day to be patient, set limits and stay calm. Avoid getting into trouble by over-trading.

The probability of a 50bp rate cut in September is now only 63%, compared to 78% yesterday and 95% a few days ago.
Investors are less concerned about a potential recession, which is why the dollar has risen after retesting the 102.4 level.
Stock markets have recovered well. Japan is also not going to raise rates further, which initially caused its stock market to crash. This is good news for financial markets, as we may finally return to the actual TA without interference from external factors.
We only got news of a possible escalation in the Middle East, which could still add selling pressure.

Report (Binance)

Almost all tokens listed on Binance in 2024 are down:

According to a report by Coin98 Analytics, all but one of the 30 tokens listed on Binance in 2024 are in the red, and most are down significantly!

The only exception is the JUP token, which has risen 21.2% since listing on January 31st.

Most of the remaining tokens listed on Binance in 2024 have fallen by at least 50% since listing.

The worst performer so far is Aevo’s native token, AEVO, which has fallen by more than 90% since listing in March.

The July trading data I pushed to the community is out, and it feels pretty good.

Stablecoin yield and delta neutral $ETH denominated yield (green)

DUCKY One of the most beautiful charts at the moment, so stable and the volume is increasing every day

⚜️Token Unlocks:
August 2:
🔓GAL token unlock ($12.14 million / 3.52%)
August 3:
🔓W token unlock ($153.11 million / 33.33%)
August 4:
🔓FORT token unlock ($78,900 / 0.01%)
🔓LQTY token unlock ($406,780 / 0.51%)
🔓ENA token unlock ($6.13 million / 0.87%)
August 5:
🔓MODE token unlock ($4.07 million / 14.25%)
August 6:
🔓MAVIA token unlock ($2.08 million / 3.64%)
August 7:
🔓HFT token unlock ($2.58 million / 3.12%)

Practical Tips for Investing in On-Chain Tokens

In the past, I have always asked to be cautious when trading on-chain coins, and some members have done a great job. If you have been following and making a profit, congratulations. However, I must remind you that most on-chain coins, especially memes, are narrative plays that gain short-term momentum but will not become important in the long run. If you know how to trade these narratives, you should be fine.

However, I have also seen members treat some of these coins as long-term holdings. I personally advise members not to do this unless they hold risk-free, which means that the initial investment has been taken out. Most tokens will go to zero at some point, or become irrelevant, which is why they are not suitable for long-term holding. If this happens, the value of your portfolio will drop significantly.

Two most common tips for portfolios:

Diversification: Some portfolios only hold on-chain tokens, which are mostly risky investments. I think it is a wrong approach to only hold on-chain tokens in the hope of faster and bigger gains. Gains are important, but having a balanced portfolio is more important. You will be at risk of losing a lot of money because most on-chain projects will become irrelevant at some point. I personally recommend allocating 20% ​​to 30% of your funds to on-chain tokens.

Allocation: I have seen some portfolios that put 10% of their funds into low-cap on-chain coins, but only 2%-3% into fundamentally strong coins like $BTC , $ETH , or $SOL . I usually recommend the opposite allocation: put a higher allocation into safe investments and a lower allocation into low-cap investments. For example, if you have a portfolio of 50K, you can put 10K into SOL, but you can't put 10K into on-chain memes because the latter is more risky. You know SOL won't go to zero, but the same can't be said for most on-chain coins.

These tips may sound common sense to some members, but I checked a lot of portfolios last night and know that many people have these on-chain coins in their long-term portfolios and have a considerable amount of funds invested in them. We all know what happened to some on-chain coins a few weeks ago when the hype around them died down and don’t want to see that happen in the future.

$

USDT: Tether releases Q2 2024 financial report: H1 2024 profit hits record high of $5.2 billion, treasury bond holdings hit record high, group consolidated equity is nearly $12 billion

I think if I say 20% of all Tether profits will be used to buy BTC
Paolo could end up with $1 billion in purchases