Market Overview: Morning Reflection

The day after the Japanese stock market crash, the S&P 500 had a nice recovery, but yesterday the S&P 500 fell 2.5%, which also led to a correction in the cryptocurrency market. BTC saw a strong rise only after the US stock market closed. This once again shows that the direction of BTC will depend entirely on the performance of the stock market in the coming weeks. Whether BTC has bottomed depends on whether the stock market can rebound. Everything else is unimportant.

Given the importance of macroeconomic developments to the cryptocurrency market, we need to monitor different events and data to understand the direction of the stock market. For many years, I have been looking for signs of weakness in the US economy, hoping that this would increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but now times have changed and we look for data that shows that the economy is actually stronger than expected, as this will ease people's fears of a recession.

No matter how optimistic the cryptocurrency market is currently, it cannot beat the fear of a recession or an actual recession. Bad data from the US economy will exacerbate this fear.

Today's financial markets will focus on initial jobless claims, which is a data related to unemployment. High unemployment was the main source of recession fears a few days ago, which is why this data has become more important than ever. If today’s data shows that fewer jobless claims are filed than expected, then recession fears will ease further, which is also good for stocks and BTC. On the contrary, if it exceeds expectations, fears will increase. I will share a separate article on this event today.