At night, 2,000 BTC were transferred from the Silk Road address in the United States, and the mainstream fell sharply.

Silk Road is 69,000 BTC seized by the United States from hackers in 20 years. In March last year, the United States sold BTC worth 300 million, and then BTC plummeted 7%.

At the beginning of this year, the United States planned to sell 2,000 BTC, but did not say the specific time of sale, so this round of address changes caused a lot of panic on the external network.

The United States has gathered a huge amount of BTC by means of seizure. Currently, the United States holds 200,000 BTC, accounting for 1% of the circulation.

Not only that, the United States firmly controls spot ETFs, CME, and Grayscale, and the pricing power of BTC has completely shifted from Asia to the United States. You can focus on the changes in the Silk Road address.

Today, BCH officially started halving, and it seems that not many people are paying attention. I think back then, BCH came out of nowhere and staged the real and fake Monkey King, almost replacing BTC and becoming the real master of encryption. Unfortunately, it was just a little bit short, and all the previous efforts were wasted.

At that time, many bigwigs exchanged all their BTC for BCH. That period was the darkest and most critical moment for BTC. Time is the best touchstone. After so many years, countless Bitcoin killers and Ethereum killers have disappeared, but BTC is still here. #大盘走势 #BTC

First, let’s review the bad start that ETFs had when they reopened after a three-day break. Grayscale GBTC smashed 303 million.

Neither BlackRock nor Fidelity responded, with capital inflows of only 165 million and 44 million respectively. The capital inflows of several other ETF institutions were in the millions and could not help at all.

This also led to another outflow of funds from ETFs as a whole, with a net outflow of US$85.7 million.

Although the amount of funds is small, the destructive effect on market sentiment is very significant.

This may also be the trigger for yesterday's market plunge. The main players felt that the outflow of funds from ETFs may continue and chose to avoid risks in advance.

In addition, the macro aspect is also unfavorable to the market. The ISM manufacturing index in the United States unexpectedly expanded in March, ending 16 consecutive months of contraction. Prices, new orders, and production all increased.

This has also led to a significant reduction in the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June. After the data was released, the probability of CME's forecast once fell below 50%.

The current cumulative rate of interest rate cuts during the year has also dropped from the previous 75 basis points to below 65 basis points, affected by pessimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.

In addition, the trends of Fidelity's FBTC and IBIT are not considered healthy, as they are currently the largest water inlets in the market.

The daily inflow and outflow of ETFs plays a decisive factor in the rise and fall of the market. The Bitcoin ETF is an index that tracks the rise and fall of the market in the secondary market of U.S. stocks.

The rise and fall of the broader market also directly affects the rise and fall of ETF prices. Secondly, the rise and fall of ETFs are also related to market supply and demand, so retail investors like the rise but not the fall.

Many people would rather take orders at a high level than buy at the bottom when the market falls.

Therefore, it can be explained why the BTC inflow during this period has always been negative. #Meme #WIF #大盘走势

Only those who have truly made a lot of money in the currency circle will understand what I am saying!

Why does it have to be a lot of money?

Because you can rely on luck and technology with small money, but not with big money! (I can’t say 100%, at least 99%)

Remember: holding high-quality potential coins and patiently waiting for the explosion is the key to getting rich in the currency circle! The secret to making big money must be holding, not trading~ (underestimation to overestimation)

When you have about 10 million in the currency circle, you will understand what we focus on most!

What we focus on is "low risk, high return" investment! Rather than the "high-risk, high-return" investment that most people pursue, many people will wonder, are there "low-risk, high-return" investments in the currency circle? Of course! That is to buy high-quality potential when the valuation is low... #WIF #BTC

Tomorrow is the largest delivery in BTC history of $11 billion. We can see the end of quarterly delivery and new trends tend to emerge.

Before 2017, when perpetuals had not yet appeared, the market mainly traded quarterly futures. The principles of quarterly and perpetual were very different. Quarterly was delivered every three months according to the spot price, while perpetual was several The hourly subsidy rate means that quarterly prices tend to be more extreme and are much different from spot prices. Many people can tell which side of the long-short side big funds prefer through the price difference between quarterly and spot prices.

Since entering the 20th year, the trading volume of options has become larger and larger, and the quarterly delivery effect brought by options has also become greater. Everyone has noticed the biggest pain point of options, and can see the intentions of big funds. Today, the biggest pain point of BTC is 5 10,000, ETH is at 2,600.

A new trend is about to start next week, and the long-short game is coming to an end.
#BTC #DOGE

The dealer is always more patient than you

In the game with the dealer, endure the pain and keep tracking the promising targets.

Use a telescope to find targets, but you cannot use a telescope to trade.

————In memory of TRU who sold out because of anger...
#tru #DOGE #LTC #BTC

"Global Crazy Bull Market: Have You Embarked on the Cryptocurrency Skyrocketing Train?"

1. After the circulating market value of WLD (World Coin) reached US$100 million in September 2023, it has increased 10 times!

2. PEPE went from a market value of US$500 million to US$3.3 billion in just 14 days!

3. Gala was still 0.02 last month, but this has increased to 0.07, an increase of 3 times!

4. FET still started at 0 during the Spring Festival, but now its market value reaches US$2.3 billion! Increased by 5 times! This only took 25 days!

5. The market value of BNB has reached US$80 billion! The last time I asked you to buy the bottom in November, it was still US$40 billion! It’s doubled!

6. The lowest SOL price has increased from 0.5U to 150U now! A 300-fold increase! But after seeing it at that time, you really didn’t dare to buy the bottom!

7. PEPEPRO. Now PEPE’s upgraded version of pepepro currency will also be launched on the exchange soon.
#BTC #DOGE

BTC is pulling, BNB is pulling, ETHFI is pulling, AEVO is pulling, DOGE is pulling!

Is your coin still motionless? Don’t worry, it’s all a matter of time;

The most striking feature of a bull market is the rotation of sectors. After other sectors have finished rotating and rising, your sector will start to fall!

I won’t necessarily miss you when it goes up, but I won’t miss you when it goes down! #SHIB #BTC #DOGE

After continuous net outflows last week, ETF institutions began to see net inflows this week. There was a net inflow of 231 coins on the 25th. Yesterday, the net inflow increased to 5,562 coins. The data gradually returned to normal.

The BTC spot ETF data in the past 24 hours is still positive inflows, and even the selling pressure on GBTC exceeded the previous trading day.

However, the net inflow of ETFs still exceeded the previous trading day. The hero this time is still Fidelity. In the past 24 hours, Fidelity has increased its holdings of more than 4,000 BTC, and a total of nearly 7,700 BTC has been increased in the two days of the week. BTC.

Although this data is not Fidelity's best historical record, it is still quite good.

In particular, Fidelity's net holdings exceeded BlackRock for two consecutive days. Currently, Fidelity's BTC holdings exceed 143,000, accounting for 17.31% of the overall ETF holdings. Although BlackRock's net holdings have been net holdings for two consecutive days. Lower than Fidelity, but the increase is still increasing.

The Federal Reserve also announced that it expected to cut interest rates three times this year, which appropriately eased market anxiety. Regarding this issue, I prefer to add one or two times to the three times. Only at that moment will the Federal Reserve lawmakers find that the market is still optimistically overvalued.

In addition, the SEC is still relentlessly suing Coinbase, but BlackRock co-founder and CEO Larry Fink said in an interview with Fox Business that even if the US Securities and Exchange Commission designates Ethereum as a security, its spot ETF is still possible If approved, this will increase regulatory scrutiny surrounding ETH, and an ETH ETF is expected to continue until it is approved.

The number of Bitcoin options delivered this Friday will be unusually large, reaching $15 billion. In the past, it was only two to three billion. This may be the reason why some big whales choose to avoid risks at this time and the fluctuations in the past two days.

After all, the delivery of the largest options in the world will bring about a huge amount of margin release, and this kind of risk is generally taken seriously by institutions.

Then the exchange rate of ETH against BTC still did not rebound, but there is a good thing about ETH, that is, the CFTC reiterated in the lawsuit against kucoin that Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Litecoin are commodities. This is the identity attribute that ETH needs at present, and for the future Whether the ETF can pass is crucial.
#BTC #WIF

As far as I know, only 20% of people have caught this wave of market trends, and 80% of people have failed to catch the market trend of more than a year. Most people think that there will be a big drop of 312, and they are all waiting for such a market to appear to buy the bottom. !

There are also those who think that from 15,487 US dollars to 67,000 US dollars, all fools have made money. They cannot keep doing this and let retail investors make money. They think that the main force will harvest leeks. The entire market has not cared about it from the beginning, thinking that the bull market is not so fast. Until now Started to feel anxious.

The financial market always follows the 80/20 rule. Who is the second? The rise of the pie above 60,000 gives the market a lot of confidence. The subsequent trend will become faster and faster, and the sector rotation will also break out. Missing last year's market is a small problem, but If you don't wake up to last year's market situation and miss the next layout and future trends, then you will miss it.

10 times, 20 times, opportunities across classes. Now we need to look for the next high-quality coins, which are about to explode. Potential sectors will be long-term, because many high-quality newly issued altcoins are still at the bottom! #热门话题 #BTC

If it goes down, you don’t dare to buy. To chase the rise, you have to rush into large positions to act as liquidity. In my opinion, drawing is the least valuable. YYDS can provide good points. Accurate to the decimal point, stop loss and don’t play. Making money through contracts is as easy as breathing. We have already laid out the next popular track currency and are waiting for it to bloom! #热门话题 #BTC

BTC Bitcoin:

If the pie is of the same proportion, just pay attention to the thousand-point fluctuations at the high level. Leverage players should pay special attention to it. Others on the market should wait for the peaking signal. This wave of pie will basically win.

The daily major support moves up to 62,000 points, and the short-term leverage liquidation support is 62,800 points. Logically, bulls are safe at this position. Those who have doubled their positions in the big pie can appropriately reduce their positions. There may be some adjustment risks after the new high. , the current price has reached a stage where we need to gradually calm down.

ETH: If Ether has the idea to cover its position, buy it low and hold it. Ether has not yet reached the stage where it needs to be considered for shipment. It’s not scary if prices keep rising. What’s scary is not giving the opportunity to pick up the goods.

SSV: The market value is seriously undervalued, so please pay attention.

Fan series: chz, city, flow, arg, choose by yourself.

HK concepts: cfx, sand, ach, dent, choose by yourself. #热门话题 #BTC

The United States announced its GDP for the fourth quarter of last year, and the growth rate was slightly lower than expected. However, the difference was not much different and basically in line with expectations. The key point is that personal consumption expenditures remained strong in the quarter.

The 3% growth rate of consumer spending was much higher than the expected 2.7%. This data means that the economic growth of the United States is still very strong.

In the fourth quarter, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price growth rate was 1.8%, which was also higher than the initial value of 1.7%. Taken together, these data are still not conducive to future interest rate cuts.

Therefore, after the data was released, CME once again lowered its June interest rate cut expectations. Currently, it is only over 60%, not to mention March and May, which are basically out of the question.

Yesterday, 8 ETFs increased their holdings by 14,934 BTC (approximately $940 million), while Grayscale only reduced its holdings by 2,223 BTC (approximately $139.8 million).

Among them: BlackRock increased its holdings by 10,140 BTC (approximately $638 million); Fidelity increased its holdings by 4,066 BTC (approximately $255.9 million).

Wall Street is FOMO on one side and FUD on the other. Those who hold chips will go crazy. For example, consortiums such as Fidelity estimate that Bitcoin will reach US$100 million per coin in 2035.

Recently, analysts at Morgan believe that Bitcoin may fall to around $42,000 after the halving.

No matter which way it goes, one thing is certain. The macro trend of BTC in the future is to keep rising until it exceeds the market value of gold and becomes the world's number one rare value asset.

Then there will be many speeches by the Federal Reserve Voting Committee in the past two days, focusing on the speeches of 2024 Voting Committee Mester and tonight's speech by FOMC Permanent Voting Committee Fed Williams, which will have a certain impact on the market.

Then there is no doubt that the main force in this wave of pullbacks is institutions. Just the night before yesterday, the single-day trading volume of ETFs was close to 7.7 billion US dollars, significantly setting a new single-day trading volume record.

The previous highest single-day trading volume was US$4.66 billion. I remember that was when the ETF had just been listed, and most of the transactions came from Grayscale GBTC's crash. Of the 29 days this month, the Bitcoin ETF had only 7 days with negative inflows, and the remaining 22 days were all positive.
This wave of US$7.7 billion transactions is dominated by buying, so it is full of gold. With the crazy rise in the pie, more institutions are beginning to covet the spot ETF pie. Among them, top investment bank Morgan Stanley has released news that it is studying adding spot ETFs to its brokerage platform for customers to trade.#热门话题

Fellow veterans, this round of bull markets is different. We must not seek the sword in vain. All past experiences have failed. We need to open our eyes. A market cycle is coming that will truly test the ability of investment to think logically. #热门话题 #BTC

BTC Bitcoin:

The pie broke through 60,000 points and became the black swan with the largest short position. Before the bull trend ends, the only thing that needs to be paid attention to is the amplitude of the high level. At the same ratio, it is normal for the high pie to fluctuate by a thousand points a day.

Leverage players pay special attention to this. This point began to be reflected yesterday. Others on the bus should wait for the peaking signal. This wave of big cakes has basically won.

The daily major support moves up to 58,000 points. Logically, bulls are safe at this position. There is no need to deliberately avoid risks. Short-term ETF buying continues and will continue to rise.

ETH:

Ether broke through 3,500 points during the day, and the fixed investment position was 3.5 times larger, paying 30% of the cost, and the remaining positions would not be moved in the later period. The trend will continue to be weakly linked to the market. If you enter the market at a high level, it is appropriate to take some profits. The short and medium-term direction remains unchanged. Continue to be bullish while paying due attention to risks.

SSV: The market value is seriously undervalued, so please pay attention.

PORTAL: Previously, the process of staking and mining was distributed to VIPs at the summit. All participating partners must have short positions in place today.

I pledged 100 BNB and shorted a total of 244.6 portals. In the process, BNB increased by nearly 20%. It was indeed a golden shovel.

As for when to buy this coin, let’s do it after it breaks below 2 US dollars.

Meme coins suddenly started to gain momentum. In the past, this signal was the eve of extreme market fomo, so be sure to pay attention to the risk of heavy positions in the next period of time. #热门话题 #BTC

BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have exceeded 130,000 pieces, and the number is still increasing steadily. The number of Grayscale GBTC has dropped to 445,000, and the downward trend has gradually eased.

Yesterday, the total inflow of funds into all ETFs exceeded US$230 million, and grayscale outflow data reached a record low.

The position balance of institutions has been broken for several days. Even if the buying balance has slowed down, it cannot withstand the incremental explosion of OTC funds brought about by the high market sentiment.

Recent operations among project parties have also seized this opportunity properly. The Uniswap Foundation only made public a proposal to allocate any protocol fees to holders of pledged UNI tokens, which led to the tokenization of the entire DEX sector. The coin surged, with UNI gaining nearly 100% in 48 hours.

At present, the total market value of all types of DEX tokens exceeds 24 billion US dollars. During this period, the market maker Wintermute shipped 1.2 million uni tokens, and the current number of positions is zero.

In order to prepare for the launch of the Cancun mainnet in March and the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF that is likely to exist in May, Sun Ge continued to buy more than 150,000 Ethereums for 12 consecutive days, with a holding cost of US$430 million. .

The buying and selling data of large traders may not necessarily dominate the development of the market, but it can certainly serve as a direction indicator for later market fluctuations.

The future market belongs to those who are patient enough. The team leader will pay attention to the hot spots at every stage, but will never emotionally chase the hot spots that have risen very high. He will not get on and off frequently and be cautious about every position. Decision is the cornerstone for us to effectively grasp every band.

The market is always releasing good news and bad news to tempt you to get on or off the bus. The battle of money and the game of human nature are vividly reflected here.

If you cannot see through the essence of the phenomenon and cannot grasp the trend of the market, you will be easily confused by the illusion of events and then be taken away by the wave. #热门话题 #BTC #ETH

The difference between bankers and retail investors is that big bankers and institutions basically buy when no one cares and sell when there is a lot of people, while most retail investors buy when there is a lot of people and sell when no one cares.

Therefore, after each round of market starts, the attention of retail investors soars, there is an endless stream of people who are short-term, and there are countless people who reach the top.

This round of calf market started after the pie officially exceeded 28,000 points in October last year. The development of the market is like a man who has been single for more than 30 years hiding in the house of Widow Liu in the next village who has been widowed for 10 years on a rainy night. There are no surprises in the plot. 's happened.

After that, the pie exceeded 52,000 points, and Ethereum exceeded 3,000 points. The market is now gradually approaching the 312 mark of the historical abyss, and discussions are rampant about whether there will be a similar round of sharp declines.

At least under the current market sentiment, the captain believes that if there is to be a short-term decline of more than 50%, apart from getting retail investors on board and consuming long leverage, there will not be many benefits to the market itself. .

Differences in the macro-environment dictate that history can only be used as a reference, not as a complete reference. Currently, U.S. stocks are hitting strong new highs, U.S. unemployment data continues to be at new lows, inflation is relatively easing, interest rate cuts are on the agenda, and institutional buying is coming one after another.

If there is going to be a similar crash, at least there will be a black swan bigger than last year's Silicon Valley Bank thunderstorm. Will the market really give it a chance?

The captain is optimistic that this is more difficult. The captain has said before that the bull market's plunge is the best catalyst for bull leverage, and this plunge is controllable.

For example, there have been several consecutive rounds of fluctuations from 53,000 points to 50,500 points recently. The long data was almost completely cleared after two consecutive rounds. Currently, short positions account for more than 90% of the contract positions. It is only right that they continue to rise in the later period.

A problem that can be solved by a 2,500-point decline coupled with back-and-forth fluctuations. In the eyes of the main players whose buying costs and miner costs are both above 40,000 points, why bother to operate with a plunge exceeding 10,000 points?

Let everyone get off the bus, and then continue to create new highs. Wouldn't it be the most beautiful operating logic for Leeks, who have no chips, to take over at the highest point after the extreme FOMO.#热门话题 #BTC

BTC Bitcoin:

The position of the pie is basically within our established framework, and the market will fluctuate even if the upper and lower ranges are not broken.

The short-term daily support moved down to 50,300 strong support after breaking through 51,000 points. It is expected that it is unlikely to fall directly below. The pressure level continues to focus on 52,800 points. The captain’s view is that the adjustment will continue to reach new highs, and it is difficult to achieve 10% of the daily line in the short term. This level has fallen sharply.

ETH Ether:

The Ethereum Cancun upgrade mainnet is scheduled to be launched on 3.13. Before that, one is expected to maintain short-term strength, and after that, it is expected to be strong in the long-term.

The big short position in Ether is expected to continue after May. Although it will be a problem in the short and medium term, it will not affect my idea of ​​​​supporting him.

In fact, Ether's breakout of 2,800 points is considered a new high, and it will definitely be chasing the rise at the end of stagflation. The daily support is 2580 points, and the pressure level continues to be 3400 points. Adjust during the day, and continue to pay attention.

FIL:

fil had a large level of good news during the day, but the market performance is indeed a bit stretched. You can pay attention to it. It is not a big problem to take a mid-line period at 6.7 and go above 20 points. How did it fall recently and how did it rise? Continue to pay attention Bar.

I am greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. If I cannot obtain the title of the richest man in our village before I die, I may die with my eyes closed.

It has been less than two months since the BTC halving. The past three production cuts have all seen sharp rises and falls.

For example, the old retail investors in our currency circle are very impressed by the 312 plunge in 2020, when BTC rose to US$10,000 during the Chinese New Year. Then it plummeted to US$3,000, and then rose to US$20,000 by the end of the year. It can be said that there were twists and turns.

20 years is also known as the "Leverage Year", and many leverage stars were born, many of whom grew from a few dollars to hundreds of millions.

Then in April this year we will see the fourth Bitcoin halving event, which has greatly changed the supply dynamics of Bitcoin.

And historically, it has been associated with price increases for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency space.

Historically, halving events have been a harbinger of significant price increases for Bitcoin.

The reality is that Bitcoin adoption has continued to grow since its inception fifteen years ago.

The deflationary nature of Bitcoin in circulation means that these supply and demand dynamics have caused Bitcoin’s price to rise after each previous halving, and while past performance can never be fully indicative of future results, understanding the growing adoption rate of a deflationary asset The potential impact is significant.

Anticipation of the halving event will also lead to increased interest in Bitcoin, and with it an inevitable increase in speculation and the possibility of “dump news” events.

As we saw with the approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in January — another event that saw Bitcoin receive widespread attention — prices rose in anticipation of SEC approval.

After the funds were approved, there was a large short-term self-divergence, resulting in a sharp drop in prices. Bitcoin’s price has since recovered from the sell-off; however, the point remains that investors need to be alert to the market sentiment and speculative trends leading up to the halving in order to position themselves in a way that best supports their Bitcoin investment thesis.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving will have a significant impact on the number of Bitcoins entering circulation.

Looking at this event from a historical perspective, it is not unreasonable to assume that there would be a price increase concurrent with or following this event.
#热门话题

Let’s talk about the capital flow of Bitcoin ETF first. Yesterday, I saw relevant news that Bitcoin ETF had its first net outflow, with an outflow of US$37.5 million.

I checked the information carefully and found that there was no such thing. On Thursday, 9 ETFs, including Grayscale GBTC, had a total net inflow of 4,832 BTC, about US$250 million.

This number is more than 100 million higher than the day before yesterday, although Grayscale GBTC still lost 2,652 BTC.

However, the ability of other institutions to take over orders is still particularly strong. BlackRock alone has increased its holdings by 1,891 coins, and the other eight institutions have also maintained their holdings.

So yesterday’s news bulletin was obviously wrong, and I saw some numerical details behind the news bulletin.

It is said that GBTC has an outflow of 1.993 billion, BlackRock has an inflow of 965 billion, and FBTC has an inflow of 525 billion.

This number is really too fake, so everyone should learn to find the source of the data themselves when seeing such news.

In addition, Matrixport’s poisonous milk is here again. The latest report says that BTC will reach $63,000 in March 2024.

The rationale is that based on historical retracements, Bitcoin prices typically rebound at halving times. In addition, there are other catalysts for the rise in Bitcoin prices, such as the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, expectations of interest rate cuts after the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, the US election, etc. #热门话题 #BTC #ETH