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【$eth】2025.2.17
【News】
The SEC is closely following the trend of POS staking, which is directly beneficial to ETH and SOL. Judging from the current trend, the ETH staking ETF is very likely to be approved. In fact, the SEC had already begun researching staking ETFs before 21Shares submitted its application.
According to the process, the final deadline for application is October 30. The SEC may not approve it immediately, and may even wait until the new SEC chairman takes office in April before making a decision. But overall, the recent policy is still good.
In addition, after the primary market was ruthlessly harvested by the Argentine Presidential Coin and CZ's dog Broccoli, its activity has declined significantly. Now there is a wave of fighting against the conspiracy group on the SOL chain on the foreign Internet. Now the gameplay of meme coins has become an assembly line operation, and issuance, position building, shipment, and running away have all become standardized operations. It is extremely difficult for retail investors to make money from general chain meme coins. You should also pay attention to the big IP. The Argentine Presidential Coin is an example, and many leading investors have failed.
The SEC is closely following the trend of POS staking, which is directly beneficial to ETH and SOL. Judging from the current trend, the ETH staking ETF is very likely to be approved. In fact, the SEC had already begun researching staking ETFs before 21Shares submitted its application.
According to the process, the final deadline for application is October 30. The SEC may not approve it immediately, and may even wait until the new SEC chairman takes office in April before making a decision. But overall, the recent policy is still good.
In addition, after the primary market was ruthlessly harvested by the Argentine Presidential Coin and CZ's dog Broccoli, its activity has declined significantly. Now there is a wave of fighting against the conspiracy group on the SOL chain on the foreign Internet. Now the gameplay of meme coins has become an assembly line operation, and issuance, position building, shipment, and running away have all become standardized operations. It is extremely difficult for retail investors to make money from general chain meme coins. You should also pay attention to the big IP. The Argentine Presidential Coin is an example, and many leading investors have failed.
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【$btc】2025.2.17
【News】
The crypto market has been doing well in the past two days, with Bitcoin fluctuating at a high of $98,000 and the overall trend being relatively stable. There are several main reasons for this.
First, Trump announced that he would assist in a ceasefire in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If they can reach an agreement before April 1, it will be good for the US stock and crypto industry. Because the ceasefire will reduce the negative impact of Trump's tariffs, and people's expectations for inflation in the future will not be so pessimistic.
Secondly, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund Mubadala invested in a Bitcoin spot ETF with an investment amount of $460 million. This is also one of the main reasons for the rise in Bitcoin prices. After all, sovereign countries have begun to indirectly invest in cryptocurrencies, especially wealthy countries like Abu Dhabi.
The crypto market has been doing well in the past two days, with Bitcoin fluctuating at a high of $98,000 and the overall trend being relatively stable. There are several main reasons for this.
First, Trump announced that he would assist in a ceasefire in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If they can reach an agreement before April 1, it will be good for the US stock and crypto industry. Because the ceasefire will reduce the negative impact of Trump's tariffs, and people's expectations for inflation in the future will not be so pessimistic.
Secondly, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund Mubadala invested in a Bitcoin spot ETF with an investment amount of $460 million. This is also one of the main reasons for the rise in Bitcoin prices. After all, sovereign countries have begun to indirectly invest in cryptocurrencies, especially wealthy countries like Abu Dhabi.
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Is the Argentine President ‘Issuing Coins to Save the Country’? Beware of the New ‘Harvesting’ Tactics Behind Political Endorsements!
On February 15, 2025, Argentine President Javier Milei announced the launch of a Meme coin called 'LIBRA' through official social media, claiming that this move would 'promote economic growth in Argentina' and directly published the token contract address.
As soon as the news broke, the price of LIBRA skyrocketed to $4.96, with a market cap briefly nearing $5 billion. However, just a few hours later, its price halved to $0.6, and the market cap shrank to less than $1 billion, creating a 'roller coaster' spectacle.
What is even more alarming is that this operation has been questioned for its 'account authenticity.' Some media pointed out that Milei's social media account had previously posted controversial statements multiple times, and this coin launch may have been the work of a hacked account, but the official response has not been clear.
As soon as the news broke, the price of LIBRA skyrocketed to $4.96, with a market cap briefly nearing $5 billion. However, just a few hours later, its price halved to $0.6, and the market cap shrank to less than $1 billion, creating a 'roller coaster' spectacle.
What is even more alarming is that this operation has been questioned for its 'account authenticity.' Some media pointed out that Milei's social media account had previously posted controversial statements multiple times, and this coin launch may have been the work of a hacked account, but the official response has not been clear.
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A surge of 54,000% in one hour! Musk changed his name again, and this meme coin plummeted after the harvest!
As the father of Dogecoin, Musk seems to be becoming the biggest "harvester" of meme coins.
On February 11, Musk changed his Twitter profile name again, changing the account name to Harry Bolz. Just as previous name changes always bring meme coins into fashion, the prices of the two meme coins with the same name immediately soared.
Musk's move once again left people confused. Some netizens joked that maybe there was not enough money to acquire Open Ai?
In fact, as early as February 7, when the Harry Bolz (HARRYBOLZ) token went online, some investors on the Internet predicted that Musk would change his name.
On February 11, Musk changed his Twitter profile name again, changing the account name to Harry Bolz. Just as previous name changes always bring meme coins into fashion, the prices of the two meme coins with the same name immediately soared.
Musk's move once again left people confused. Some netizens joked that maybe there was not enough money to acquire Open Ai?
In fact, as early as February 7, when the Harry Bolz (HARRYBOLZ) token went online, some investors on the Internet predicted that Musk would change his name.
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【$eth】2025.2.14
【News】
Du Jun stated on social media that the institutional chain is ETH, and the retail chain is SOL. Recently, he talked to several institutions that are increasing their ETH positions; large amounts of money can only be safely invested in sufficiently decentralized assets, with BTC and ETH being the optimal choices. Retailers like SOL, and there are many entrepreneurial opportunities, so it’s worth paying attention to. He emphasized that he sees ETH reaching 10,000 USD this year. This big player, who has been in the industry for 12 years, despite not having a great reputation, has indeed injected a dose of enthusiasm into the depressed Ethereum community with his words.
Although the community's preference for SOL in this round is far greater than for ETH, and the coin price is significantly stronger, it ultimately reflects the consensus of retail investors. Institutions that truly hold large amounts of capital still choose BTC and ETH in their asset allocation.
Du Jun stated on social media that the institutional chain is ETH, and the retail chain is SOL. Recently, he talked to several institutions that are increasing their ETH positions; large amounts of money can only be safely invested in sufficiently decentralized assets, with BTC and ETH being the optimal choices. Retailers like SOL, and there are many entrepreneurial opportunities, so it’s worth paying attention to. He emphasized that he sees ETH reaching 10,000 USD this year. This big player, who has been in the industry for 12 years, despite not having a great reputation, has indeed injected a dose of enthusiasm into the depressed Ethereum community with his words.
Although the community's preference for SOL in this round is far greater than for ETH, and the coin price is significantly stronger, it ultimately reflects the consensus of retail investors. Institutions that truly hold large amounts of capital still choose BTC and ETH in their asset allocation.
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[BTC] 2025.2.14
[News]
On February 13, Representatives Bryan Posthumus and Ron Robinson proposed HB 4087, amending Michigan's (management and budget act) to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This move makes Michigan the 20th state in the U.S. awaiting a vote on cryptocurrency investment legislation.
The bill in Michigan will allow the state treasurer to invest up to 10% of the general fund and the economic stabilization fund in cryptocurrency. The bill also includes a cryptocurrency lending clause, stating that if lending cryptocurrency does not increase the state’s financial risk, the state treasurer may lend out cryptocurrency to bring further returns to the state. Additionally, it is reported that Michigan's pension fund has already invested in Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF.
On February 13, Representatives Bryan Posthumus and Ron Robinson proposed HB 4087, amending Michigan's (management and budget act) to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This move makes Michigan the 20th state in the U.S. awaiting a vote on cryptocurrency investment legislation.
The bill in Michigan will allow the state treasurer to invest up to 10% of the general fund and the economic stabilization fund in cryptocurrency. The bill also includes a cryptocurrency lending clause, stating that if lending cryptocurrency does not increase the state’s financial risk, the state treasurer may lend out cryptocurrency to bring further returns to the state. Additionally, it is reported that Michigan's pension fund has already invested in Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF.
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The macro environment is turbulent. What should crypto investors do?
If the Bitcoin halving cycle is used as a time anchor, the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle should have occurred in the fourth quarter of 2023.
However, the Biden administration at the time distorted the non-farm data by allowing illegal immigrants to work and expanding the size of government employees, and refused to cut interest rates.
As the U.S. Treasury needs to issue a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds to raise funds to pay for Biden's policies, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield has experienced a sharp downward trend, creating a seasonal bull market spanning the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
Entering the second quarter of 2024, with the Ministry of Finance's slowing bond issuance and the outbreak of global non-US systemic risks (my country's housing market + Japan's bond market), there is a strong demand for risk aversion, and the US dollar, US bonds and gold have become in-demand commodities. Coupled with the historical tradition of no market in the risk market in the second quarter, the entire crypto market has entered a period of depression.
However, the Biden administration at the time distorted the non-farm data by allowing illegal immigrants to work and expanding the size of government employees, and refused to cut interest rates.
As the U.S. Treasury needs to issue a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds to raise funds to pay for Biden's policies, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield has experienced a sharp downward trend, creating a seasonal bull market spanning the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
Entering the second quarter of 2024, with the Ministry of Finance's slowing bond issuance and the outbreak of global non-US systemic risks (my country's housing market + Japan's bond market), there is a strong demand for risk aversion, and the US dollar, US bonds and gold have become in-demand commodities. Coupled with the historical tradition of no market in the risk market in the second quarter, the entire crypto market has entered a period of depression.
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Is BlackRock's increased stake in MicroStrategy brewing a black swan?
In the recent 13G filing, BlackRock disclosed that it currently holds a 5% stake in MicroStrategy.
BlackRock's IBIT is currently the largest BTC ETF by scale, with assets under management exceeding $56 billion.
MicroStrategy is the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, currently holding 471,107 Bitcoins on its balance sheet, with an average acquisition cost of about $64,524, and an asset value exceeding $4.5 billion.
It can be said that both are giants, and their movements will have a significant impact on Bitcoin's trajectory.
BlackRock's IBIT is currently the largest BTC ETF by scale, with assets under management exceeding $56 billion.
MicroStrategy is the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, currently holding 471,107 Bitcoins on its balance sheet, with an average acquisition cost of about $64,524, and an asset value exceeding $4.5 billion.
It can be said that both are giants, and their movements will have a significant impact on Bitcoin's trajectory.
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The Trump family’s crypto empire is just a small sum of billions of dollars!
Recently, Trump’s second son Eric Trump posted a tweet about Ethereum on Twitter, saying it is “worth buying.”
Although it did boost Ethereum prices in the short term when it was released, the overall market reaction was not as strong as he expected. The volatility of the crypto market is high, and the impact of a single tweet usually only lasts for hours or even minutes.
However, this matter has attracted the attention of regulators. Some people question whether Eric Trump's tweet involves the transfer of interests. After all, it is no secret that the Trump family has been in the crypto market for a long time. Every move they make may be regarded as a market signal, triggering investors to follow suit. Eric Trump mentioned in his tweet that "you can thank me later", which seems to imply that he has full confidence in the market impact of his words. But this may also lead to the intensification of power transfer and corruption, especially in a market environment lacking effective supervision.
Although it did boost Ethereum prices in the short term when it was released, the overall market reaction was not as strong as he expected. The volatility of the crypto market is high, and the impact of a single tweet usually only lasts for hours or even minutes.
However, this matter has attracted the attention of regulators. Some people question whether Eric Trump's tweet involves the transfer of interests. After all, it is no secret that the Trump family has been in the crypto market for a long time. Every move they make may be regarded as a market signal, triggering investors to follow suit. Eric Trump mentioned in his tweet that "you can thank me later", which seems to imply that he has full confidence in the market impact of his words. But this may also lead to the intensification of power transfer and corruption, especially in a market environment lacking effective supervision.
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[ETH] 2025.2.13
[Fundamentals]
Cboe BZX submitted a 19b-4 application to the U.S. SEC. In the 19b-4 application, Cboe BZX Exchange proposed modifications to allow the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF to stake.
The application was released on Wednesday, outlining the exchange's request to allow the trust to stake its Ethereum holdings. The proposal is now awaiting confirmation from the SEC, which will decide whether to approve the application within a 240-day window.
Cboe BZX Exchange outlined that the Ethereum held in the trust will be controlled by a custodian during the staking period. The sponsor will use "click staking," which allows staking to be initiated through an interface without moving the client's Ethereum holdings. This method reduces the risk of losing Ethereum through theft when staking on nodes. Staking is the process of earning passive income by using digital currencies.
Cboe BZX submitted a 19b-4 application to the U.S. SEC. In the 19b-4 application, Cboe BZX Exchange proposed modifications to allow the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF to stake.
The application was released on Wednesday, outlining the exchange's request to allow the trust to stake its Ethereum holdings. The proposal is now awaiting confirmation from the SEC, which will decide whether to approve the application within a 240-day window.
Cboe BZX Exchange outlined that the Ethereum held in the trust will be controlled by a custodian during the staking period. The sponsor will use "click staking," which allows staking to be initiated through an interface without moving the client's Ethereum holdings. This method reduces the risk of losing Ethereum through theft when staking on nodes. Staking is the process of earning passive income by using digital currencies.
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[BTC] 2025.2.13
[Fundamentals]
Yesterday, everyone was most concerned about the CPI data release, which came in at 3%, higher than the market expectation of 2.9%. Moreover, all inflation indicators are rising, with both broad CPI and core CPI showing increases. As soon as this data was released, the US stock market and the crypto market reacted immediately with a decline.
Originally, everyone had some expectations for interest rate cuts, but now the market generally expects that the Fed is very unlikely to cut rates in March, and even the possibility of a rate cut in May has become uncertain.
Moreover, the tariff policy has not been fully implemented yet, and the uncertainty hanging over the market is making investors increasingly risk-averse. If tariffs really start to be enforced, the US stock market and the crypto market may face greater downward pressure.
Yesterday, everyone was most concerned about the CPI data release, which came in at 3%, higher than the market expectation of 2.9%. Moreover, all inflation indicators are rising, with both broad CPI and core CPI showing increases. As soon as this data was released, the US stock market and the crypto market reacted immediately with a decline.
Originally, everyone had some expectations for interest rate cuts, but now the market generally expects that the Fed is very unlikely to cut rates in March, and even the possibility of a rate cut in May has become uncertain.
Moreover, the tariff policy has not been fully implemented yet, and the uncertainty hanging over the market is making investors increasingly risk-averse. If tariffs really start to be enforced, the US stock market and the crypto market may face greater downward pressure.
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[ $eth ] 2025.2.12
[Fundamentals]
Data from authoritative monitoring institutions indicates that whales have bought a large amount of ETH within a specific time frame, increasing their holdings by more than 600,000. The concentrated purchasing behavior of whales has had a direct impact on the price of ETH in the short term. During the process of a large amount of ETH flowing into the hands of whales, the quantity of ETH available for trading in the market correspondingly decreases. Based on the fundamental principles of supply and demand, when demand remains unchanged or increases while supply decreases, prices tend to rise due to supply-demand imbalance. In the cryptocurrency market, the operations of whales are often seen as indicators of market trends. Therefore, if it doesn't rise, then it won't, but if it does, it could skyrocket.
Data from authoritative monitoring institutions indicates that whales have bought a large amount of ETH within a specific time frame, increasing their holdings by more than 600,000. The concentrated purchasing behavior of whales has had a direct impact on the price of ETH in the short term. During the process of a large amount of ETH flowing into the hands of whales, the quantity of ETH available for trading in the market correspondingly decreases. Based on the fundamental principles of supply and demand, when demand remains unchanged or increases while supply decreases, prices tend to rise due to supply-demand imbalance. In the cryptocurrency market, the operations of whales are often seen as indicators of market trends. Therefore, if it doesn't rise, then it won't, but if it does, it could skyrocket.
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【$btc】2025.2.12
【Fundamentals】
The crypto market fell slightly on Tuesday after Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum. In addition, I personally believe that the current weak market trend is not only due to the tariff issue, but also to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has undoubtedly caused investors to worry about the macro economy. In uncertain situations, investors will seek safer assets, such as gold or the US dollar, and this is usually accompanied by a decline in interest in risky assets (such as cryptocurrencies).
In addition, history shows that trade war concerns caused by tariff threats often come and go quickly, but this time, the market is not so sure. For this reason, as tensions heat up, it is the US dollar, US Treasury yields and gold prices that rise more. Therefore, I personally think that the current market may be more about re-familiarizing with Trump's strategy rather than any risks associated with extreme tariff measures.
The crypto market fell slightly on Tuesday after Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum. In addition, I personally believe that the current weak market trend is not only due to the tariff issue, but also to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has undoubtedly caused investors to worry about the macro economy. In uncertain situations, investors will seek safer assets, such as gold or the US dollar, and this is usually accompanied by a decline in interest in risky assets (such as cryptocurrencies).
In addition, history shows that trade war concerns caused by tariff threats often come and go quickly, but this time, the market is not so sure. For this reason, as tensions heat up, it is the US dollar, US Treasury yields and gold prices that rise more. Therefore, I personally think that the current market may be more about re-familiarizing with Trump's strategy rather than any risks associated with extreme tariff measures.
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Here is some good news. The Cleveland Fed expects the CPI data for January to be 2.85%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 2.9%, while the core CPI is 3.13%, also a slight decrease from the previous value of 3.2%. In other words, the Fed is slightly optimistic about future data. In addition, based on the data available in the past 10 days of February, the Cleveland Fed also expects that the next CPI inflation is expected to continue to decline, reaching 2.62%, while the core CPI will drop to 3%, both of which will drop sharply.
So whether the Fed is predicting data for Wednesday this week or next month, it is relatively positive, especially the next CPI, which will drop quite a lot. If the expectations are realized, this will definitely be a huge boon to the capital market in March. Maybe this is a signal for $btc to restart the bull market.
In short, US inflation is expected to drop sharply next month, and the currency circle and US stocks will begin to rebound. At that time, the cryptocurrency market itself will also enter the $eth upgrade market. If the upgrade is on April 8, then $eth will start to gain momentum from early March, which can be said to be a double benefit with the decline in inflation, so I am still looking forward to the subsequent trend.
So whether the Fed is predicting data for Wednesday this week or next month, it is relatively positive, especially the next CPI, which will drop quite a lot. If the expectations are realized, this will definitely be a huge boon to the capital market in March. Maybe this is a signal for $btc to restart the bull market.
In short, US inflation is expected to drop sharply next month, and the currency circle and US stocks will begin to rebound. At that time, the cryptocurrency market itself will also enter the $eth upgrade market. If the upgrade is on April 8, then $eth will start to gain momentum from early March, which can be said to be a double benefit with the decline in inflation, so I am still looking forward to the subsequent trend.
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This is the big news that is about to happen. Trump will announce this week that he will increase the tariff policy on other countries, and said that this tariff will apply to all countries, and the impact will be very large. And this announcement is likely to be released tonight, which can be said to be very close, so everyone might as well be prepared.
The trade war in the past few weeks has really made the cryptocurrency circle and the US stock market suffer a lot. For example, the non-agricultural employment data that just came out in the morning of last Friday in the United States was very favorable. The number of new jobs exceeded expectations and fell to 143,000, which directly pulled Bitcoin to 100,000 US dollars. But then came the bad news of Trump's tariffs, causing Bitcoin to plummet 5,000 points overnight, and the US stock market also fell by nearly 2%. The market was very panicked.
But after Trump announced the tariff policy in the past two days, the boots fell and all uncertainties disappeared, so the market is likely to rebound. Hehe. #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #比特币国家战略储备 #比特币后市
The trade war in the past few weeks has really made the cryptocurrency circle and the US stock market suffer a lot. For example, the non-agricultural employment data that just came out in the morning of last Friday in the United States was very favorable. The number of new jobs exceeded expectations and fell to 143,000, which directly pulled Bitcoin to 100,000 US dollars. But then came the bad news of Trump's tariffs, causing Bitcoin to plummet 5,000 points overnight, and the US stock market also fell by nearly 2%. The market was very panicked.
But after Trump announced the tariff policy in the past two days, the boots fell and all uncertainties disappeared, so the market is likely to rebound. Hehe. #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #比特币国家战略储备 #比特币后市
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【$eth】2025.2.11
【Fundamentals】
Last week, the Ethereum spot ETF welcomed a net inflow of $420 million, and all nine ETFs had no net outflow. However, despite the strong growth in capital inflows, the price is still the same, and many controversies in the ecosystem are still there, especially in the operating model of Layer2. Some people say that Layer 2 has made a lot of money by continuously selling the proceeds of the sorter and has become a parasite of Ethereum. Why is there such a saying? Mainly, if you want to become Layer 2 - you have to run a centralized sorter - charge $120 million in fees - and then pay Ethereum $10 million for DA and security - and then sell $110 million for profit. Although Layer2 brings scalability and efficiency to Ethereum, in fact it has indeed become the main cause of Ethereum's inflation again.
Last week, the Ethereum spot ETF welcomed a net inflow of $420 million, and all nine ETFs had no net outflow. However, despite the strong growth in capital inflows, the price is still the same, and many controversies in the ecosystem are still there, especially in the operating model of Layer2. Some people say that Layer 2 has made a lot of money by continuously selling the proceeds of the sorter and has become a parasite of Ethereum. Why is there such a saying? Mainly, if you want to become Layer 2 - you have to run a centralized sorter - charge $120 million in fees - and then pay Ethereum $10 million for DA and security - and then sell $110 million for profit. Although Layer2 brings scalability and efficiency to Ethereum, in fact it has indeed become the main cause of Ethereum's inflation again.
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【$btc】2025.2.11
【Fundamentals】
Note that on February 10, Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported to the United States. Trump also stated that there would be 'no exceptions or exemptions' to these requirements. Probably due to this news, the price of $btc rapidly fell yesterday morning. Although the price quickly rebounded afterward, it should not be overlooked that every one of Trump's comments regarding tariffs brings significant negative impacts to the market. Looking back at Trump's tariff policy history, its destructive power on the cryptocurrency market has precedent. In March 2018, Trump unilaterally announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum, triggering panic over a global trade war. At that time, the price of $btc plummeted by 15% within 48 hours of the policy announcement, with a market value evaporating by over $30 billion. Even more devastating was the tariff escalation incident between China and the U.S. in May 2020, when Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, causing $btc to drop by 12% in one day, and $eth to plunge by 30% due to liquidity panic in the DeFi market.
Note that on February 10, Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported to the United States. Trump also stated that there would be 'no exceptions or exemptions' to these requirements. Probably due to this news, the price of $btc rapidly fell yesterday morning. Although the price quickly rebounded afterward, it should not be overlooked that every one of Trump's comments regarding tariffs brings significant negative impacts to the market. Looking back at Trump's tariff policy history, its destructive power on the cryptocurrency market has precedent. In March 2018, Trump unilaterally announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum, triggering panic over a global trade war. At that time, the price of $btc plummeted by 15% within 48 hours of the policy announcement, with a market value evaporating by over $30 billion. Even more devastating was the tariff escalation incident between China and the U.S. in May 2020, when Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, causing $btc to drop by 12% in one day, and $eth to plunge by 30% due to liquidity panic in the DeFi market.
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【$eth】2025.2.10
① According to on-chain data, $eth accumulated addresses have received 330,705 $eth, valued at $883 million, which is the highest single-day inflow record. The total amount of $eth held by these long-term holders has reached a record 19.24 million. This means that, although the price of $eth has dropped by 20.75% so far in 2025, the accumulated holding amount of $eth has surged by 20.55% during the same period. To explain briefly, an accumulated address refers to a wallet that continuously receives $eth without making any outgoing transactions. These wallets may belong to long-term holders, institutional investors, or entities that hoard $eth from a strategic perspective rather than engaging in frequent trading. A large inflow of capital into these addresses often indicates market confidence in the long-term potential of $eth. Trends show that such a surge in capital inflows often heralds a price increase. For example, on February 26, 2023, the single-day inflow of $eth accumulated addresses reached the historical peak at that time, exceeding 244,000 $eth. Nearly two months later, the price of $eth rose by nearly 35%. In July 2024, after a significant inflow of funds into accumulated addresses, the price of $eth also saw a similar increase. Additionally, whale addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 $eth have steadily increased their holdings. Despite the price drop, the total number of accumulated retail addresses in 2025 has still risen significantly, indicating that most of these entities are buying at the low prices seen in recent weeks. So, although $eth's performance is indeed poor, the market's confidence in the future price trend of $eth is continuously strengthening. Whether you believe it or not, I certainly do believe and think so.
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【$btc】2025.2.10
① Many people are asking, will there be a bull market this year? Or has it already entered a bear market? The bull market is definitely not over, and $BTC will break new highs again this year. However, this time it may not be a crazy bull market, but a steadily rising "slow bull" market. The current situation of the market is that there is a lack of narratives that can attract large funds to enter the market, and the overall market has entered garbage time. This means that shocks and adjustments will become the main theme in the short term. Investors' emotions have also begun to return to rationality, and the pattern of large funds is obviously decreasing. People no longer blindly chase the rise, but learn to stop when they see good. For example, yesterday, CZ called for TST and TCC on the BSC chain, and many people chased high and were trapped. This also shows that there is no money-making effect on the current chain and the secondary market, and even CZ can hardly call the entire market on his own. Even this morning, there was news that the President of the Central African Republic issued a coin, and issued 7 in a row, which made everyone wonder if this product was hacked. Therefore, the most important thing now is to protect the principal, not losing is making money, and patiently wait for the recovery of market liquidity and sentiment.
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【$btc】2025.2.6
① Why is it not rising when there are so many positive factors? There is no money in the market. From the perspective of capital inflow, the current active funds in the market are obviously much less than those in the bull market in 2021, and the speed of new funds entering the market is also much slower. From the perspective of the supply of stablecoins, both USDT and USDC are much less than the peak of the bull market in 2021. This shows that the market lacks sufficient liquidity, and the biggest reason behind it is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, especially the impact of high interest rates. In addition, the financial market is speculating on expectations. Last year, everyone thought that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon, so despite the high interest rates, the market still had the momentum to rise. But the reality is very embarrassing. The latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve shows that there will only be two interest rate cuts this year, which directly breaks the market's expectations. If the dot plot of the December interest rate meeting shows that there will be six interest rate cuts this year, Bitcoin would have flown long ago. In a high-interest environment, investors' risk appetite will decrease, which also explains why Trump's tariff policy can cause a sharp drop in the crypto market. Now the only thing we can count on is policy benefits to see if it can drive more funds into the market. However, what are the current policy benefits? Or what are you preparing? We'll talk this over later.