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【BTC Overall Exchange Net Inflow/Outflow Ratio】 remains at a high level, comparable to when the bull market started at the end of 2023. This indicates that the demand for BTC is still strong. Therefore, in the future, don't expect BTC to drop significantly. Those who say it will drop to 70,000, 60,000, or even 50,000 are all fools. #香港加密概念股 #上市公司山寨币财库 #下一任美联储主席人选

In the three major rebounds ($28,000, $60,000, and $100,000), Long-Term Holders (LTH) consistently maintained their positions before strong growth.

The first occurrence was around $28,000. The increase in the share of Long-Term Holders (LTH) relative to Short-Term Holders over the 1-2 month period laid the foundation for the breakout price of $60,000.

The second time, a similar accumulation unfolded during the consolidation phase at $60,000, providing momentum for the rise to $100,000.

Today, at the $100,000 mark, we again see a continued increase in the LTH/STH ratio. This accumulation phase may last 4-8 weeks, after which, similar to previous cycles, a strong upward reversal may occur. If we apply a more conservative ×1.6 multiplier to the current price, the next rebound target is in the $160,000 range.

【$btc】2025.6.26

The price has reached 108,000. Is it time to start considering short positions? At least at this position, if you go short, the safety factor will be much higher. Moreover, you might catch a relative high point. Of course, this statement is a bit hasty.

First, we need to confirm one thing: will Iran and Israel continue to be at war? After all, they are currently only temporarily at peace. If the war resumes, does that mean the market will crash again? Two words: yes. Trump stated that the conflict between Israel and Iran may flare up again, possibly very soon. He does not believe Iran will re-enter the nuclear weapons development field. If Iran returns to its nuclear program, we will be there.

Even Trump feels that the next war between Israel and Iran may come soon. Because Trump himself is aware that neither side is willing to back down; both believe they are the victorious party in this battle, making it difficult to negotiate terms for peace. Moreover, Israel wants to limit Iran's development of ballistic missiles. Not to mention ballistic missiles, Iran is currently striving to develop nuclear weapons; will they let you restrict their missile development?

Therefore, the conflicting sides are destined to have another battle. The only question is when it will happen—whether in a few days or next month, no one can say for sure, but it is definitely not far off. As retail investors, we just need to be wary of this situation.

So back to the market. First, the current pressure range is 【108100-108600】. It may be possible to break through this level, but it will be challenging. Moreover, in the last five days since the lowest point, there has been no effective adjustment. So at this position, I won't go long. If going short, it's worth a try, with the premise of setting a stop-loss. If we really start facing an adjustment, the target range below is 【105300-106000】. #香港加密概念股 #下一任美联储主席人选 #币安Alpha上新

【$btc】2025.6.25

Wasn't it supposed to be a small adjustment wave? Why is it climbing higher and higher? Shh, don't speak, I'm also reflecting on this issue, and my face is burning. Yesterday's thought was indeed to see a small adjustment before looking for a rise. But that didn't happen at all; it basically just rose up against the pressure. I won't elaborate on the reasons; it's still the same, Israel and Palestine have announced they are preparing for talks. This is equivalent to saying, it started with Israel and Palestine (crash), and ended with Israel and Palestine (surge).

Now the question we are most concerned about is, how high will it go? Will there be new highs? Is there still an opportunity to get in? What to do with short positions at low levels? And so on. If you are stuck with a short position at a low level, you need to see how low it goes. I don't think this wave will reach new highs directly. As for where this wave will go? I think this current wave (rise) will probably touch the line of 108000, and whether it will go higher, I don't know; let's first observe the price performance at 108000.

If the price can reach 108000, can we still go long after a drop? Yes, at least from what we can see so far, that's the case. Where is the key support below? 【105000~105500】. My advice is that when the price encounters an adjustment in the next couple of days and comes to this range, you can consider going long.

Is there an opportunity for short positions? Yes, but I'm afraid you won't be able to seize it. Moreover, we are currently in a rebound type of bullish market, so either reduce shorts or don't short at all. If you really can't control your hands, just wait and see, and if the market rises too much, you'll want to short; my personal suggestion is to at least wait until the price approaches 108000, okay? As for the fluctuations in between, for very short-term trades, still focus on going long, with oscillations trending upwards, unless the price is nearing 108000. #加密市场反弹 #鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词 #币安HODLer空投NEWT #Strategy增持比特币

After Powell spoke last night, the market believes that the probability of not lowering interest rates in July has risen to 81.4%. What key points did Powell mention last night? ① The U.S. is not currently in a recession, and changes in interest rates will depend on the direction of the economy. ② The vast majority of policymakers believe that lowering interest rates later this year is appropriate. The reason we are not lowering interest rates now is that both internal and external economic forecasts signal a significant rise in inflation this year. We must wait and observe; we are currently in this stage. There is no need to rush to act. It will not point to a specific month. ③ We expect to see significant impacts of tariffs on inflation in June, July, and August. ④ Our balance sheet still has some room for reduction, and we believe it can continue at the current pace for a while. Finally, when asked why not lower interest rates? Powell stated that the main reason is the uncertainty regarding the scale of inflation caused by tariffs and its potential persistence.

So, some people believe that there will definitely be a rate cut in July; I really don't understand where this certainty comes from.

Additionally, I took a look, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has already reached 70.9%. This means that not lowering rates in July is likely a fact, and the market will now bet more on September. If that’s the case, the interim period will only involve adjustments. I personally expect hype around rate cut expectations to begin after August.

So July is likely to be a month of great turmoil.

【$btc】2025.6.24

First of all, it was clearly stated yesterday that we are looking for a rebound in these couple of days, and once the price surpasses $103,000, it won't easily create new lows again, at least not this week. This is the original statement. However, the fact that it has rebounded this much is completely beyond my expectations. To be honest, I didn't see $106,000; yesterday I only saw $103,000. Once the price reaches here, it may fluctuate up and down or face resistance and adjust. However, if it's catalyzed by news, this is generally hard to gauge.

The current biggest pressure is from 【$106,000~$106,500】. Can it break through here? Yes! But it first needs to face a wave of adjustment. And the adjustment is currently happening and in progress. If we can see a higher position, does it mean we can go long below? Yes. Where is the long position? Around $103,400. Can we place it directly? No. If you are doing spot trading, you can place it directly. But if you are doing contracts, it is recommended to look for opportunities for right-side trading near this price. There is one uncontrollable factor here, which is that Israel and Palestine are still fighting and unpredictable, sometimes saying they want to negotiate and other times launching missiles...

On the ultra-short term, 【$104,200~$104,400】 is a support area. If the price drops here, there may be a small rebound, but it may not be significant. Once it effectively breaks below $104,200, we look directly toward the range 【$102,800~$103,200】, which will be slightly more effective. As for the upper side, you can look for opportunities to set up short positions, with a stop-loss set at the small previous high, temporarily expecting a slight adjustment.

【$btc】2025.6.23

Based on the recent on-chain data distribution, we now have a rough idea of the strong support area below, which is around $92900~$98500. However, does this rally really just end at $98200? Not necessarily. A rebound is just a rebound; it will not be a reversal. Since it is a rebound, there is a possibility of finding a new bottom. Therefore, in my view, $98200 is unlikely to be a temporary low.

Where will the temporary low be? I don't know. I only know that the next effective support area will likely be around 【$95500-$96500】. This is also the position where I think the price will at least reach afterwards. Will it reach this week? It's possible. But this depends on the situation. If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $103000, it likely won't go down this week. If it encounters resistance at $103000 and effectively breaks down below $100700, then we will see a second bottom test. If the bottom test fails, we will continue to look for a bottom around 【$95500-$96500】.

Therefore, the key resistance above is $103000, and the key support below is $100700. As for today, I personally believe that the next couple of days will mainly focus on rebounds. You can short high and long low.

From the data, the support level of $92900~$98500 remains very strong. The $98000 line is not only a technically dense area for chips but also the average cost line for short-term holders. However, the situation above is quite dire. The pressure is extremely heavy, roughly concentrated between $103000~$105200. It is unlikely to digest this pressure quickly. It requires two words: time.

Yesterday, $btc dropped to 98200 and held steady. As long as the situation in the Middle East does not further spiral out of control, $btc can maintain stability around 98000.

Yesterday, MicroStrategy also released a Bitcoin tracker, indicating they are bottom-fishing again, and short-term buying remains strong. Overall, this drop is primarily due to negative news from the Middle East conflict, with concerns that the conflict may escalate further, triggering risk-averse sentiment.

This wave of decline in the crypto market feels a bit unjust, as other markets have not dropped much, indicating that the crypto market is still too young and easily swayed by emotions.

Today, we can focus on whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further, and whether Iran will truly block the Strait of Hormuz. #加密市场回调 #剥头皮策略 #美国国债 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC

A brief discussion on the situation in the Middle East. First, here in the Middle East, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the U.S. has not engaged in a full-scale war with Iran, but has targeted Iran's nuclear program and destroyed some facilities. Trump wants to take this opportunity to reshape relations with Iran, but the bottom line is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Trump also stated that if the current Iranian government cannot make Iran great again, then why can't a regime change occur? However, this time it seems more like pressure; he probably wants to use external strikes combined with internal chaos to make the Iranian regime collapse on its own. But currently, the Iranian opposition lacks armed forces, so overthrowing the regime in the short term is unrealistic. However, the Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision is in the hands of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. It is estimated that Khamenei will be more cautious, as blocking the strait would also deal a heavy blow to Iran's own oil exports and worsen the domestic economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is also the artery for transporting a quarter of the world's oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas. If it is truly blocked, oil tankers will not be able to leave, and oil prices will certainly soar. Oil prices have already risen 35% from the low in April. JPMorgan predicts that if the conflict escalates further, oil prices could reach $120-130 per barrel. However, it is not easy for Iran to completely block the strait, as this concerns the interests of most countries. So in the end, it will probably result in no substantial outcome.

Once Iran's attitude on this front eases, although it will still be unavoidable to escalate the conflict, it will also provide a breather for the market. In short, whether it is Iran or Trump, any slight easing of the tense situation will certainly lead to an effective rebound in the market.

Last night, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, Iran announced plans to block the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant drop in the crypto market. Bitcoin fell to a low of $98,200, dropping over 6%, while Ethereum fared worse, with a decline exceeding 13%. The market's liquidity was already low over the weekend, and with U.S. markets closed, panic could only manifest in the crypto market, resulting in a sharp decline in Bitcoin.

In simple terms, this kind of extreme volatility is essentially caused by insufficient liquidity; if it were a weekday, the drop might not have been so exaggerated. Besides the crypto market, other markets remained stable, with S&P 500 futures opening down 1%, later narrowing to 0.4%. Brent crude oil once rose nearly 6%, but the increase also gradually narrowed.

The market is now more concerned about Trump's tariff policies; this recent drop is very similar to the tariff panic in February. If the situation in the Middle East eases, the market may rebound quickly.#加密市场回调 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #剥头皮策略

【$btc】2025.6.20

Since it can't go down, does that mean it has to go up? Yes. As long as it stabilizes at 104500 today, it can rise and oscillate upwards. But the question is, how high can it go? The price has dropped from the position of 109000 and has been oscillating for more than 2 days. It should be time to choose a direction in the next two days. The absolute pressure above is around the 105700 line. However, before this position, there is also a range of pressure at 【105000-105300】. Actually, we are just waiting for a medium bullish candlestick to break through. If there is no breakthrough today, during the liquidity-dry weekend, the longer this drags on, the more unfavorable it is for the bulls. So today is quite crucial. If there is still no movement today, it is estimated that there won't be much activity tomorrow either. By Sunday, it may turn downwards and wash out thoroughly.

If it breaks through 105700 directly upwards, where can we see? To be honest, it's not easy to break through here. If a medium to large bullish candlestick appears, it could pull up to 107000 without much issue. As for higher positions, it cannot be seen for now. In other words, it's not something that can be analyzed today. Alternatively, after hitting resistance at 107000 and then retreating, it might attempt to attack 109800, at most just here.

What if it goes down? Logically speaking, if it doesn’t reach the position today, it won’t go down. The position should at least touch 105000. If it drops directly from here, then I’ll accept it; I’ll be proven wrong, and that’s fine. It’s just from a probabilistic perspective that it seems to be in a rebound, and is still in the rebound phase.

In summary, whether there’s a small surge or a small decline, it will probably be a matter of these two to three days. #波段交易策略 #加密概念美股 #GENIUS稳定币法案

【ETH Chip Distribution Level】It is not difficult to see that right now, this is the state where ETH chips are being crazily accumulated, the color status is yellow upwards. The upper maximum accumulation level is indicated to be at 2750.66. The lower level is 1882.76.

From personal experience, the possibility of continuous rising here is already low. Therefore, it is just the right time for this to become a phase top. In other words, starting from 2750.66, it is likely to face a decent wave of consolidation, flushing out people like you and me, haha. #鲍威尔发言 #加密概念美股 #美联储FOMC会议

【ETH Net Inflow Accumulation Address】Today, I took a look at this indicator, wanting to see the status of ETH, and I was a bit surprised to find that it has exploded in volume. Since 2017, the data has never been this large. And this massive data cluster occurred in just a few days, quite concentrated. I've marked the specific dates in the chart.

What does this mean? It means that ETH is bound to experience a strong surge soon, and I don't think it will be too long. This indicator generally appears at relatively high levels, and such data is rarely seen; it tends to occur more easily at relatively low levels. Once it appears, in most cases, it is accompanied by an upward trend. From the literal interpretation of the indicator's nickname, it is easy to understand that the number of addresses holding ETH has reached a very high peak. Under what circumstances does ETH become so eye-catching? #加密概念美股 #鲍威尔发言 #币安Alpha上新

The number of long-term holders has grown significantly, which can basically confirm that short-term holders become long-term holders after holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This situation is similar to previous cycles and is one of the on-chain performances at the end of a bull market. However, does the end of a bull market necessarily mean that a crash must begin? No, no, no! One thing we must understand is that the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed dramatically; it is no longer the case of a 4-year cycle, where once the bull market hits a certain point, it’s over. You should know that the term 'long bull' is definitely not unfounded. Although it cannot be as exaggerated as the movements in the U.S. stock market, which have such a lucrative effect, it certainly won’t depreciate too much. Not to mention Trump’s four years.

At this stage, we are in a critical state indicated by the fifth arrow in the indicators, but do you think it will rise directly? I'm a bit skeptical, as interest rate cuts are imminent, but the specific timing has not been announced, so adjustments in between are inevitable. Therefore, I think the current stage is more like the wide fluctuations around mid-2023. There will be ups and downs, followed by a bigger explosion. You can refer to the second and third arrows counted from left to right. Let’s see if that’s the case? #加密概念美股 #以色列伊朗冲突 #鲍威尔发言

【BTC Chip Distribution Situation】I have marked the support levels that the price will encounter if it continues to adjust. The strongest support area is roughly【104000-105000】, where the accumulation of chips is the highest. However, the current price is actually running within this range, and if there is an effective breakout upwards, there is still potential for movement. But if there is an effective breakdown downwards, at least until the interest rate cut timing is confirmed, a long adjustment period will be required. So will it drop below 80,000 in the future? You really are a little cutie, definitely thinking too much.

Currently, the mainstream opinion in the market believes that significant adjustments will likely occur around July and August. But how significant is significant? Personally, I think it might just be between the levels of 80,000 to 90,000. As for hearing people say they see 70,000 or even 60,000, just directly insult them with two words, SB. #加密概念美股 #鲍威尔发言 #币安Alpha上新

【$eth】2025.6.16

The sudden strengthening of $eth, where can we see it go? The most critical resistance at the moment is the 2650 line. If this is effectively broken, the next level we will see is 【2675-2695】, and this area will likely cause a small price adjustment. But, the premise is an effective breakthrough of the 2650 line; otherwise, there will be a slight pullback around 2650. But this is a minor issue; if we encounter an adjustment early, it's still the same statement: an opportunity presented at our doorstep. Currently, what can cause a price crash is uncontrollable factors that directly disrupt the existing price trend, which can only be negative news, and it must be significant negative news. For example, if one country starts fighting another, this does not refer to Israel and Iran; it must be a new conflict. The situation between Israel and Iran, even if the conflict escalates, won't have a fatal impact on prices anymore. As of now, I believe that a new conflict is the only thing that could directly impact the market, causing it to turn down and disrupt the existing upward oscillation structure.

In the short term, the key support area is 【2580-2600】. If today, the 2580 line is violently breached, it may be a bit dangerous. Whether there will be some negative news to accompany that is anyone's guess. Based on the current trend, I can only look on the bright side.

In summary, the current rebound of $btc is quite beautiful, and $eth is in a correlated state. As long as there is no sudden significant negative news, $eth will continue to catch up.

【$btc】2025.6.16

Yo! Has the price adjusted properly, and is it about to rise again? At least for now, it does seem like it will rise. Even if there is a setback in between, it will only be a slight adjustment, presenting you with an opportunity. But be aware, even if this wave goes up, it is likely just a relief opportunity for long positions at high levels; don't fantasize about it soaring to the sky. Before confirming the next interest rate cut, there will still be significant drops and the possibility of substantial adjustments. And this recent crash does not count. So what constitutes a substantial adjustment? At least a drop below 100,000, around 96,500, is what I would call a substantial adjustment.

This wave, I call it a rebound rise. As for how far this wave can go? Stabilizing at 107,000 looks towards 108,200. The extreme position is around 109,600. The higher the position, the more cautious you should be when going long; make sure to set stop losses, and absolutely do not hold onto long positions recklessly. If one day in the future there’s another significant drop, and your long position is trapped, you will feel extremely uncomfortable, because at that time, it is quite possible that the price will approach the 96,500 mark. Of course, if you are willing to hold and have a large position, then forget what I said. Anyway, if this wave can rise, I currently only see it as an opportunity to relieve high-level longs. It is also a time node to lure in more buying from the market makers.

In the short term, the current pressure is around the 107,000 line. So far, this pressure is not a big issue; it can break through and stabilize. However, around this pressure, don't rule out the possibility of slight adjustments, which is essentially a shakeout. The effective support below mainly gathers around [105,700-105,900]. Does this mean that when the price reaches here, we can look for opportunities to go long? Yes.

And which position is most likely to encounter resistance and then start slight adjustments? 107,000. But don’t gamble; don’t foolishly short against the trend, then just place an order without fear of the market continuing to push forward and being blown out. So here, I want to emphasize that even if you want to short, it's best to do so from the right side of the trend. At least the trend for the past two days has been upward consolidation.

The current main holders are still not in a hurry to take profits, and the whales remain relatively stable, showing no significant signs of large-scale selling.

Before the market shows obvious signs of warming and bubble formation, large investors seem unlikely to take action. This indicates that whales expect prices to rise further and have not generated selling pressure. #美国加征关税 #币安Alpha理财中心 #币安HODLer空投RESOLV