【$eth】2025.1.13

① Is there no hope for Auntie? In this wave of decline, Auntie has dropped much more than the big pie. Auntie is in a phase of catching up on losses, seeking the bottom ahead of time. Therefore, it is advisable to short Auntie at this moment. Where to aim for? Around 3100. Will Auntie drop sharply without any rebound? Probably yes. If the bears have a slight conscience, they might take a breather and give you a rebound, which would be a gift from the market.

② Can we still be optimistic about Auntie? Yes, but it has to finish dropping first. At least Auntie needs to reach between 【3000-3100】 before we can talk. Once it gets to this position, can Auntie stop declining? Not necessarily. However, it will gradually become less volatile, meaning while the big pie drops sharply, Auntie might be able to hold steady in this area. To be honest, Auntie hasn't risen much to begin with, and now that it has dropped by half, if it drops sharply again back to the starting point, there wouldn't be a bull market for Auntie at all. But I think that's unrealistic. It can be understood that Auntie hasn't shown its strength yet, but it can't be assumed that Auntie is already dead. If Auntie really is a hopeless case, then there would be no need for ETF and upgrades. Therefore, I still firmly believe that the process of Auntie's decline is merely the process of mainstream American institutions accumulating. In other words, once it drops to a certain extent, it will no longer be correlated with the big pie.

③ Where is Auntie's upper resistance? 【3220-3255】. If the price can rebound to this area in the next few hours, it would basically be the standard area for ambushing short positions. The strong support below is 【3000-3100】. If Auntie strongly breaks through 3280, there is a possibility of a slight reversal. #哪些代币逆势上涨？ #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #还有山寨季？

There are two main trends in the market now. The other one is the transfer of power of the US president.

Unless the US economy is in recession, the transfer of power is probably good for the market. If Trump says a few more words in support of cryptocurrency during the handover, Bitcoin will soon return to more than $100,000. Except for the short term, I am very optimistic about the medium and long-term trend, because in the context of global flooding, the market is not short of liquidity at all, and liquidity is only managed by the Fed's expectations.

In addition, in the past 30 days, institutional investors have hoarded more than 34,000 bitcoins, providing buying support for the recent price of Bitcoin. Without this support, the price fell directly into the abyss. Therefore, this decline is nothing more than a full turnover in the short and medium term. Also known as, washing the ground. Institutional investors are still interested in Bitcoin.

Finally, according to on-chain data, the inventory of Bitcoin exchanges has dropped to the lowest point in the past four years. This means that sellers are still selling, but as long as it is a buyer, basically buy it and store it in their own cold wallets, resulting in a decreasing number of Bitcoins in the hot wallets of exchanges. #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #市场调整策略

There are two main trends in the market now. Let's talk about the first one first. From monetary tightening to monetary easing.

In fact, this is already happening, it's just a matter of time. In fact, the US economy is not that good, and its national debt is very large. After Trump took office on January 20, the most effective solution is to release money, and it is best to continue to release money. Although the Federal Reserve has made many hawkish remarks, this is all expectation management. For example, in December last year, the Federal Reserve said that the economy was too good to reduce inflation and that it would cut interest rates at most twice next year, but it cut interest rates before the end of the year. So the core problem of the United States is the national debt, and the whole world knows that the total amount of US debt is soaring rapidly.

If someone owes a lot of money and still promises to borrow money at high interest rates in the market, what do you think he wants to do?

So, no one is willing to continue to lend money to the United States. Now that the Federal Reserve can't solve the problem, Trump has begun to try to use cryptocurrency to fill the gap in national debt. Trump has previously said that he wants to use Bitcoin to repay the 3.6 billion national debt owed by the United States. Do you think the elites on Wall Street will cooperate? If they don't cooperate, everyone will be finished. So don’t pay attention to the hawkish remarks made by the Fed. They are just managing market expectations. In the end, the Fed can only cooperate with Trump to release money. #加密市场回调 #比特币价格走势分析 #美国非农数据即将公布 #市场调整策略

【$eth】2025.1.10

①Where is the target position of the rebound of Auntie? The first position area is [3330-3450], and the second position is around 3410. Linked with Bitcoin, the first position can be reached. If it hovers between [3330-3450] for a long time, you must be on guard against risks at any time. Similarly, if Auntie wants to turn the trend, its price must at least come above 3500. At least for now, this is unlikely. For this round of rebound, Auntie is not stronger than Bitcoin, mainly because Bitcoin has fallen more. However, even so, Auntie's amplitude is always stronger than Bitcoin, so Auntie is always the most standard target for our contracts.

②Where is Auntie's support? [3230-3250]. What about Auntie's defensive position? It is about 3190. Once the price comes to the defensive position, it basically declares that this round of rebound is almost over. Will Auntie make up for the rise? During the rebound, there is no such thing as a make-up rise. Either the rebound of Auntie looks weaker than that of the big cake, or the strength is synchronized. In short, the rebound is just a rebound, not a reversal. It is already very good if the rebound can pass the first pressure.

③Is it possible for Auntie to go to 3100? [3000-3100] is the strong support of Auntie, which is nothing now. Of course, the slower Auntie reaches this position, the better. In this process, the bulls must have sufficient resistance. After all, once the downward space opens, it will be a complete mess. Having said that, I will continue to instill faith in you, Auntie is awesome, Auntie is mighty, Auntie will definitely rise! #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #美国非农数据即将公布

【$btc】2025.1.10

① The price of bitcoin has fallen below the previous low. Will it continue to fall? Yes. It is just a rebound now. And it is worth noting that the strength of this rebound is still good. After all, it has fallen a lot here. It is not until today that it has started an effective rebound. The rebound will last for about two days today and tomorrow. Since the US market is closed on Saturday and Sunday, the market probably lacks liquidity, so the rebound time can be extended to Sunday. In other words, the market will probably change on Monday, and the direction of the change will probably be downward. So in these two days, you can probably grab the rebound as much as you want.

② Where is the target position of the rebound? The first position is 95500, and then 97100. The first position can basically be touched. Is there a possibility that the rebound will directly turn into a reversal? Yes, that is, the price will directly come to around 99000. But it is almost impossible and unrealistic. Because this market is the old American washing the floor market. If the floor is not cleaned, how can the big guys enter the market at such a high position? So I basically don't think the price can go past 97100, let alone 99000.

③ Where is the support below? Where is the right place to buy more? [92900-93400]. This is the short-term support area. Once it falls below, the last support for the price is 91900. But if the price accidentally comes to 91900, it probably announces the end of this rebound. According to the current situation, if the price retreats, it will probably stop falling and stabilize and strengthen again at [92900-93400]. It can even be said that just after approaching this area, it began to stop falling, stabilize and strengthen and continue to rebound. Therefore, the friends who are long should pay attention to the price trend in time, and the guys who are high-altitude layout should not be too careless, thinking that it will definitely fall, so they don't even need to stop loss. The above are all probabilities. If the dog dealer happens to harvest the leverage of the shorts upward, it is not impossible. #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #美国非农数据即将公布 #特朗普上台概念币有哪些？

The inflow of whale orders was in a state of net outflow in the previous four days, but today there was an inflow, although it was relatively weak, but at least it was moving in a positive direction. From this perspective, ETH will either stop falling, or even if it does not stop falling, the decline will slow down. #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #美国非农数据即将公布 #市场调整策略

It doesn't seem to be as serious as I said. Although the Ethereum Foundation is selling ETH, the volume is not large and the market can fully digest it. In addition, in addition to selling directly on the market like this, the Ethereum Foundation trades a large amount of ETH through OTC. For example, in August 2024, the Ethereum Foundation sold 35,000 ETH through OTC. The purpose of this is just to minimize the impact on the market. In fact, it is quite conscientious.

In addition, the number of ETH held by the Ethereum Foundation accounts for only 0.26% of the total supply, so its selling behavior has limited direct impact on market liquidity. So the auntie smashed the market, in fact, there is another whale.

Of course, there is also a possibility that it is deliberately sold to the market, which is also a typical catalyst to cause ordinary retail investors to panic about the market, so as to achieve the purpose of washing the market. There must be some interest ties behind it. In addition, the address they use to sell ETH is a frequent and small address, so it is not ruled out that it will continue to sell. After all, although the amount is small, the effect is great! #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #美国非农数据即将公布 #特朗普上台概念币有哪些？

The U.S. Department of Justice has been approved to sell Silk Road's $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin? !

However, it has only been approved, and it has not yet been determined when these Bitcoins will be sold. There are only 11 days left before Trump officially takes office on January 20. He has previously stated that he will not sell any Bitcoin after taking office. Judging from the efficiency of the U.S. government, it remains to be seen whether the Department of Justice can successfully sell these Bitcoins.

Even if the sale really starts, the amount of Bitcoin worth $6.5 billion is not too much, and the market can digest it. Perhaps this plunge has something to do with this news. However, overall, the upward trend still exists. At present, it is mainly retail investors who are cutting their losses, while large investors are buying at the bottom. This decline has scared out a lot of panic chips, and it also left Trump with a lot of room for operation. Now, we can only look forward to the market performance after he takes office. #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #美国非农数据即将公布

From the data, during this drop, investors holding less than 10 bitcoins show a significant trend of reducing their positions, while those holding more than 10 bitcoins are buying the dip. This indicates that as the price of bitcoin falls, short-term investors are experiencing panic, while long-term investors remain relatively stable, with some large holders still buying the dip.

Currently, veteran players holding large positions in bitcoin are watching from the sidelines, but those heavily invested in altcoins are surrendering. This is also the reason I have repeatedly emphasized the need to manage altcoin positions carefully, as holding large positions in altcoins can be very challenging for one's mindset during extreme market conditions.

Next, we need to pay close attention to the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, as this will affect short-term market sentiment and price trends. This drop is likely a risk-averse reaction to the non-farm data. If the non-farm data shows rising unemployment and declining employment, then the Federal Reserve may consider opening up more rate cuts.

【$eth】2025.1.9

①Will the aunt fall below 3000? Uncertain. For the aunt, the support of [3000-3100] is too strong. Even if it comes down to this position, the possibility of a false break is greater. The reason why the aunt fell so fiercely is mainly due to the Ethereum Foundation's selling of coins, so in the next market, be careful of the aunt's compensatory decline. Long orders should be placed on the right side as much as possible, and the left side should be placed to bet on a rebound, which can easily make you passive. Because the aunt's compensatory decline behavior I mentioned happened at the key support. At present, the key support of the aunt is around 3240. And the aunt's compensatory decline behavior can easily make it directly hit the previous low of 3100.

②Where is the strong pressure of the aunt? [3390-3410], the range of 20 US dollars constitutes the strong pressure of the aunt. But before that, the recent pressure was around 3350. In other words, the rebound of the aunt will be relatively difficult. If the price can rebound to [3390-3410], you can consider the layout of short orders. At present, the Yitai and the big cake are both rebounding, and the rebound is probably not over yet. Above the key support of Yitai at 3240, there is a small support, which is about 3270, which is also the main position for short-term long positions to continue to rebound.

③Can Yitai still strengthen? Yes. I still have a certain faith in Yitai. Just wait until the fall is over. Although the Ethereum Foundation has been selling, the main asset management institutions have been buying, which is equivalent to changing hands. It is normal to think that the Ethereum Foundation has a high floating profit, and it is reasonable to sell coins. The main asset management institutions mainly enter the market at high levels. Therefore, in this process, the more exchanges there are, the more beneficial it is for Yitai to rise in the future. This logic is simple to understand. After all, people who buy at high prices generally do not sell easily. It is normal for low-level profit-taking to realize profits. After all, there are always some people who need to cash out to do something. Therefore, the lower the price of Yi Tai falls, the more greedy people will be. Although everyone in the market is cursing Yi Tai now, maybe by that time, the people who really buy Yi Tai will be these people. #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #美国非农数据即将公布 #市场调整策略

Welfare small order [XRP]

①Enter the market, 2.22
②Replenishment, 2
③Stop loss, 1.9
④Take profit, 2.36-2.52-2.85#加密市场回调 #本轮牛市周期预期 #微策略持续增持BTC

Just asking you, are you good or not? #加密市场回调 #本轮牛市周期预期 #微策略持续增持BTC

Compared to the volume of short-term holders, the volume of long-term holders has slightly increased after a peak decline at the 100,000 level. This indicates that tokens purchased by short-term holders 155 days ago have now entered the queue of long-term holders. In simpler terms, long-term holders (addresses) lost this identity during the process of selling Bitcoin at the peak. Those who purchased and have held since 155 days ago (addresses) have now become long-term players. The behavior of increasing supply volume among long-term holders generally occurs during a downward trend.

The faster and more the supply volume of long-term holders increases during a price decline, the closer the market is to a cyclical bottom or bottom position. However, we are currently only in the process of completing a round of decline and beginning to grow again. It can be roughly inferred that if prices continue to fall, the supply volume of long-term holders will also continue to increase, unless it returns to the peak again. #加密市场回调 #本轮牛市周期预期 #特朗普上台概念币有哪些？

Why did the cryptocurrency market fall? In fact, it is not the cryptocurrency market's fault. It is the Nasdaq that collapsed, bringing down everything. As for why the Nasdaq collapsed? It is said that it was caused by the JOLTs job vacancy data at 11 o'clock last night. Job vacancies mean that the unemployment rate may fall and more jobs will be created. There are also PMI data. PMI exceeding expectations also represents the upward trend of the economy. The rise of both data indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change the pace of interest rate cuts, that is, twice or even less. It can be understood that the good or bad of the American economy and the cryptocurrency market are probably negatively correlated. The main reason is the expectation of interest rate cuts.

However, the above two points do not have such great power, because JOLTs job vacancies are not equal to unemployment rate and non-agricultural employment data. Although there is a correlation, it is not 100% related, including small non-agricultural data. The more important game is still in non-agricultural employment data.

Next, there will be a small non-farm data at 21:15 on Wednesday night. The US stock market will not open on Thursday, and the non-farm data will be released on Friday. According to this trend, if today's decline is indeed caused by JOLTs, then the employment data of these two days may have an impact on the market. The final game will still be on Friday's non-farm data. At present, there may be more panic selling, and confidence needs to be restored. #加密市场回调 #本轮牛市周期预期 #比特币走势观察

【$eth】2025.1.8

①Where is the target position of the decline? At least at 【3240-3270】, and then 【3120-3150】. Theoretically, if the price falls below 【3240-3270】, it is only a matter of time before it breaks the previous low. But what if 【3240-3270】 holds up? Even if it holds up, it will only rebound. After the rebound, it will probably continue to fall. Is there no possibility of rising? Probably, the market has basically turned around, unless the price can break through the 3530 line. It is not required to pull it too high, as long as it can break through the 3530 line, it can basically resist the continuous decline through shock. But if it cannot do so in the next two days, but falls directly to 【3240-3270】 and even lower, this round of market is basically dead. As mentioned above, it is only a matter of time before it breaks the previous low.

②Will the decline accelerate if it falls below the previous low of 3100? It is possible, but I prefer not to. It is still those factors. Although the price of yitai can only rise if the big cake rises, the narrative of 2025 will still be more on yitai. Although yitai has been scolded like a dog, Vitalik is useless, etc., since yitai's ETF has been passed and traditional funds can flow in, plus Defi has been compliant and upgraded, I still believe that yitai can show a certain resistance and rebound ability in the future. Of course, I am not talking about now, because it has just started to fall, and it has only fallen for 1 day, and there is still room below. I think its resistance will be reflected in the price [3120-3150]. You think yitai has fallen a lot, mainly because its amplitude is large, and any cottage will fall more than yitai. But when it stops falling, it will rebound more than yitai.

③ How to operate in the short term? The decline has not ended, so it is natural to short at highs. Short-term pressure is at [3415-3440], and then the 3500 line, and it will not be higher for the time being. The short-term effective support is [3240-3270]. Here, if you set a stop loss, you can buy more at a low price to try to rebound. Today, the main trend is low-level fluctuations. I estimate that the short-selling force may be exhausted after reaching [3240-3270]. #加密市场回调 #微策略持续增持BTC #本轮牛市周期预期 #比特币走势观察

【$eth】2025.1.7

①What is the current situation of Auntie? After the recent drop, it is basically certain that it has entered the 4-hour level adjustment. The 3620 line is the recent strong support. Theoretically, the price can stop falling and stabilize here, and then start to rise again. However, from the specific market point of view, the 3620 line is not the final position of this round of adjustment. There can be a rebound here, but it will probably continue to fall after the rebound. Step by step, for the 4-hour adjustment, effectively break the 3620 line, look at [3570-3590]. I think the final position of the 4-hour adjustment is probably [3570-3590].

②Since it is bearish, should I open a short position directly? It is not recommended. Opening a short position now is equivalent to directly chasing the short position. I said that the 3620 line can support the price and rebound. If you want to short, you can consider the upper pressure position. For the hourly level, the first pressure is [3660-3670], and the second pressure is [3690-3700]. Set your stop loss at the previous high. The reason is also very simple. If it does not fall but rises, the previous high stop loss is hit, which proves that the adjustment is complete.

③ Can I ambush at [3570-3590]? Yes. It’s just that the price may not reach it so quickly. Of course, I won’t be scared if it reaches it. What if it falls below? Rebound and flee. By then, the aunt may turn the trend, and the shorts will exert their strength to dominate the market. At that time, it is estimated that the corresponding price of the big cake has fallen below 99,000.#BTC重返10万 #本轮牛市周期预期 #比特币走势观察

【$btc】2025.1.7

① It is near the strong pressure. Is it going to fall? Yes, the price is going to fall. The strong pressure mentioned yesterday, [103000-104000], what is strong pressure? It is the place where the price is particularly easy to adjust. As for the depth of the adjustment, we need to go back to the market and analyze the specific issues. [101200-101500] is the current recent support. This area has been broken. There is also a strong support line of 100500. If this position is broken again, it is basically a door-drawing market. So it can be basically determined that the time level for this adjustment is 4 hours. And the performance reflected on the market is that it goes down as it goes up. On the contrary, if the price can generate a stop-loss signal in the [101200-101500] area in the next few hours, then the price will once again attack [103000-104000]. However, once the attack fails and the energy is exhausted, it is not ruled out that the price will have a large retracement.

② What is the current cost-effectiveness of long and short positions? The current price can only wait and see, and the hourly level is currently adjusting. The support is the two mentioned above. Although it has come to a strong pressure position, the bulls still dominate the market, so low-long positions can still be made. Even if the adjustment is really too large, breaking the support and generating a door-drawing market, you still have the opportunity to take advantage of the rebound to recover your capital. So I will do low-long positions. The high-altitude position can also be arranged. The big pressure is [103000-104000], but the short-term pressure is 102500. But here, please note that if the price stops falling and stabilizes at [101200-101500], it is recommended that the short-selling partners be a little slow, after all, the hourly level can still set a new high.

③Can Bitcoin reach a new high? If it breaks through [103000-104000] effectively, it will probably reach a new high. So yesterday I emphasized that whether it will work or not depends on these two or three days. The key is to observe whether the shorts have the ability to push the price down. At present, there is no sign of any effort from the shorts. In other words, whether the bulls can maintain the price at a high level is very critical. #BTC重返10万 #本轮牛市周期预期 #比特币走势观察 #加密市场反弹