招财牛牛

The current main holders are still not in a hurry to take profits, and the whales remain relatively stable, showing no significant signs of large-scale selling.

Before the market shows obvious signs of warming and bubble formation, large investors seem unlikely to take action. This indicates that whales expect prices to rise further and have not generated selling pressure. #美国加征关税 #币安Alpha理财中心 #币安HODLer空投RESOLV

【$eth】2025.6.12

What should I do if my long position is trapped? Will it rise back up? If it rises back up, should I sell? It can rise back up, and if it does, I can sell. In yesterday's analysis, I emphasized that the higher the price goes, the more active the bears become. What I didn't expect was that last night's price only reached a maximum of 2880, while I was looking for a breakthrough above 2840 to see 2920, which is also the upper limit of this round of increases.

Will this wave reach its peak? It's hard to say. Moreover, it has just started to decline, and it's not easy to directly reverse back up like a V. It probably hasn't reached the peak yet; this range will still fluctuate for several days. Although it hasn't peaked, the warning bell has been rung, meaning that if the price can go up, it's advisable to reduce positions. If the position is not right, it's better to run away first and then re-enter. Don't get here and still delude yourself into thinking the price will fly to 3000, etc. But will it reach 3000 in the future? It’s less likely; the pattern is too small. 1385 should be the major bottom for this year. Not saying it won't go higher, but a level around 3500 is still possible.

As for how it will move today, the support below is around 【2700-2730】; there will likely be a rebound here, and it's advisable to go long on the right side. The effective support below is approximately at the 2680 level. This means that when the price comes near this area, the cost-effectiveness of going long is quite high. As for the resistance above, the major resistance is around the 2800 level.

For the price to start an effective rebound, it must at least stabilize above the 2750 level. #美国加征关税 #加密圆桌讨论 #币安Alpha理财中心

Why is it said that there are already signs of a phase peak? Although this recent decline did not reach the critical value for short-term holders in the 24-hour selling situation, it's not just short-term holders selling. Mid-term holders, including some large accounts, are also gradually reducing their positions as prices rise.

Since April 12, large long positions on Bitfinex have continued to decrease, with Bitcoin long positions dropping from 71,665 to 43,932. Some may ask, what’s the use of looking at Bitfinex? Shouldn't we look at Binance data? Here it’s important to note that Bitfinex and Tether have a very close relationship and can almost be regarded as two businesses under the same company. The USDT issued by Tether occupies the largest share of the stablecoin market. Therefore, the behavior of large accounts on Bitfinex is very significant for predicting market trends. Such a scale of position reduction cannot be ignored even today. #看懂K线 #币安Alpha理财中心 #加密圆桌讨论

【$btc】2025.6.12

Is $btc failing? Is the top position approaching? For those who went long above, is there still a chance to break even? Here, I share some on-chain data. In the past 24 hours, short-term holders have averaged a sale of 21,000 bitcoins through exchanges, which is still below the historical average. According to historical data, when the average sale by short-term holders reaches above 40,000, there is a high probability that a temporary top will occur. The chart below shows the selling situation of short-term holders in the past 24 hours.

So, you can only say that there are signs of this, but it is not absolute; there will still be a process of repeated fluctuations in the future, and even a process of rising. However, if this rise really happens, in my opinion, it may be the last rise before the official announcement of the interest rate cut, after all, the day the interest rate cut is announced is likely the beginning of the market's re-energizing.

Whether this wave is a sell-off or a shakeout is still unclear. The most critical support below, in my view, is also absolute support and the dividing line of strength and weakness, still at the 106,000 level, which I have mentioned repeatedly. Starting from this position, I will definitely carry out a phased layout of long positions. At the same time, this is also very likely to be the target position for this round of adjustment; of course, if not, there is only one possibility: the price rebounds in advance and stabilizes at the 109,000 level. The logic is that simple.

Today, we will see how far the rebound can go, using 109,000 as a defensive position to short at highs. The pressure above is 【108,200-108,500】. As for the support below, it is the 107,300 level. Once it falls below 107,300 again, first look at 106,800 and then at 106,000. #美国加征关税 #加密圆桌讨论 #币安HODLer空投RESOLV

【$eth】2025.6.11

From this moment on, whether $eth can continue to reach new highs depends on one thing: can it effectively break through 2800 again?! If it can, the next target is 2840, as for whether it can reach 2900, I don’t know; it depends on price fluctuations. If it wants to reach 2900, at least one strong bullish candle is needed at 2840. In my view, the entire market is at an extremely critical position, which is around 2920. In other words, if the price can reach this level later, you can definitely start your gradual operations for long positions on shorts. Just afraid that this opportunity may not arise, as there is strong resistance at the 2840 level before reaching 2920.

In the short term, if from now on the price drops instead of rising, the support below is around 2770; if it effectively breaks below this, the next target is 2740. Theoretically, there should be a potential rebound at 2740, but if there is sudden bad news, that's another story.

Additionally, can we blindly be optimistic and go long now? Can we mindlessly go long? $btc can, but $eth cannot. First, $eth has already had its corrective rise, and if it starts to adjust, the volatility will not be small. If there is sudden bad news, the emotional outburst will be quite severe, especially focusing on tonight's CPI information. Secondly, $eth has reached a critical point that could reverse its trend, meaning we must be on guard against $eth turning down at any moment. Therefore, I definitely will not blindly be bullish on $eth. The higher it goes, the more opportunities it gives to bears.

Finally, I want to emphasize again, 【2720-2740】 is the key support; if this level is broken, consider it a warning.

【$btc】2025.6.11

Yesterday, it was particularly emphasized that 108500 is a critical dividing line between bulls and bears. If it holds, we can continue to rise; if it falls below, the price will shift from strong to weak, and a significant adjustment may follow. Some friends, after hearing this, decisively added positions at 108500, and after one night, they reaped a wave of profits. Additionally, it was emphasized that 110000 is a short-term resistance; only by breaking through and stabilizing above 110000 can we have the possibility of hitting a new high. After the price rebounded to a maximum of 110400, it has been adjusting ever since, and the adjustment is not over, equivalent to a false breakout of 110000, facing resistance and falling back. With the price acting this way, whether it can hit a new high is temporarily a question mark.

Currently, the effective support below is at the 108900 level. The resistance above is concentrated at the 109800 level. If the price wants to continue rising, it must at least break through and stabilize above 109800, which is the minimum standard. If today's market cannot reach this position, an adjustment is difficult to avoid. In other words, if the price cannot rise above the 109800 level, it will first drop to the 108900 level, where there will likely be a small rebound. If the rebound cannot turn into an upward trend, the next possible drop may be to the 107500 level.

If the price continues to rise, where can it go? Currently, the strongest resistance is at 110800; as long as it breaks through here, it will be a historical new high. Where it can reach a historical new high is uncertain. It can only be said that the bulls will fall into a frenzy, and at this time, it is often when you need to remain calm. #看懂K线 #以太坊生态回暖 #CPI数据来袭

—Will there be a temporary double top?
Isn't that obvious? Of course, it will form.

—Will it form this month?
Yes, it will form this month. Anyway, there are still 20 days left in this month, and won't it rise for another 20 days? I absolutely cannot believe that.

—So the temporary top is coming?
Yes, the temporary top is coming.

—Should I liquidate my position?
No need, as we approach the previous high, you can start to reduce your position in batches. The closer we get to the previous high, especially when breaking through the previous high to form a historical new high, the more you need to pay attention to the potential risks that may arise.

—Can't we have another wave of main rise?
No.

—Can I start positioning for long-term short positions?
Look for your short position setup points based on the upper pressure level, and don't think that just because you shorted, the price will immediately drop. It's allowed; you have only found a relatively high point, but it's not the point of explosion. #看懂K线 #加密市场反弹 #比特币走势观察

【$eth】2025.6.10

There hasn't been much new narrative for $eth since then, but why has it surged so much? Besides moving in tandem with $btc, there is also a component of catching up. So from yesterday to today, this increase has reached 10%. Although there hasn't been a new narrative for $eth, I previously wrote that there is an institution wanting to learn from MicroStrategy that has started accumulating $eth continuously. They are not saying to diversify into $btc and $eth, but are focusing on $eth. Once I say this, they probably start getting interested. But don't rush; this is just the beginning. And what you need to know is that after this, there will be opportunities for significant drops, which means to buy heavily. Treat $eth as a long-term investment target. In the future, when you make money, just don't forget my reminder today.

Like $btc, it is currently facing pressure from 【2720-2740】, but the difference is that this is a strong resistance for $eth. So once it weakens, $eth will definitely pull back more sharply than $btc, with a larger magnitude. But $eth is strong now because $btc hasn't weakened, so $eth's rebound is a bit more comfortable and stronger than $btc. However, once $btc weakens, it is possible that $eth may experience a slight pullback.

Then in yesterday's analysis of $eth, I expressed one thing at the very beginning: the most significant pressure above is at the 2560 level. Only by effectively breaking through here can we open up upward space. But the breakthrough happened at midnight, and basically there haven't been any opportunities to go long since then, unless one grits their teeth and chases it. Currently, the short-term pressure is around the 2700 level; only by breaking through and stabilizing above can there be a possibility of continuing to challenge new highs. But I think it's a bit tough. If the price doesn't rise and instead drops, it may attempt to challenge the 2640 level, which is an effective support. If it effectively breaks below the 2640 level, there is a possibility of a significant drop. Not saying it will all drop, but half of it can still be anticipated. #加密市场反弹 #看懂K线 #Strategy增持比特币

【$btc】2025.6.10

Yesterday's analysis clearly stated that the pressure level is 106,000. If it breaks through and holds, we will continue to look bullish. It was also emphasized that only when the price stabilizes at 106,000 for a short period can we consider a significant adjustment ahead as the end. Not long after the content was published, the price directly broke through 106,000, and since then it has been uncontrollable, reaching the pressure of 110,000 again, but this does not count as strong pressure. Now it is starting to make small adjustments. So the question arises: after the adjustment, will it rise again? Is there a possibility that it will rise and then turn to drop directly? Here, it depends on the situation.

Now there is a key support level, approximately at 108,500. If this is effectively broken, the price will strongly turn weak, and it cannot be ruled out that the price will expand from a small adjustment to a significant one. Therefore, this is very important; it is the dividing line for the strength of the bulls. At this point, someone may ask, if the 108,500 level is effectively broken, does it mean the price can no longer rise? Not necessarily, there is still a 30% chance that the price may rise, but at that time, we will analyze the specific situation.

Looking at the short term, taking 30 minutes as an example, the pressure is at the 109,700 level. If this position cannot be surpassed today, the price can only continue to turn down, at least making an attempt towards 108,700 and below. But what if it effectively breaks through 109,700? Can it then challenge a new high? Not really, the next position is 110,000. Only by breaking through and holding at 110,000 can there be a possibility of hitting a new high.

In summary, if you want to reasonably go long today, you still need to pay attention to the levels; it cannot be absolutely mindless, and be sure to set a stop loss. If a small adjustment turns into a large adjustment, this retracement magnitude will also be enough for the bulls to drink a pot.

【$eth】2025.6.9

①This wave of rebound, in terms of strength, $eth is significantly weaker than $btc. If $btc starts to decline, shorting $eth will be very appealing. The most notable resistance above is around 2560. Only by effectively breaking through this level can we open up upward space. Otherwise, we should obediently come down and talk about it once we reach the right level. Therefore, 2560 is the watershed that determines the market direction and strength. Otherwise, linked to $btc, the rebound will just be a rebound. In the short term, pressure is concentrated around 2520, meaning that only if the price effectively breaks through 2520 can an attack toward 2560 be initiated, limited to today and tomorrow. But if a downtrend mode starts today, the rebound market will basically fizzle out, and we will continue to look downward.

②Support below is at 2465. If we effectively break below this level today, the hourly level rebound will be a short, and we will see 2440 and below. The defensive area for $eth is 【2390-2415】. If we accidentally fall into this area in the next couple of days, the possibility of continuing to search for a bottom downwards will be very high. Of course, it is also possible that we find final support here and then start a new round of upward movement. It’s hard to say here; we will see at that time.

In short, it does look quite weak now. Before reaching 2465, if there is an opportunity, I will be shorting with a stop-loss. As for whether I will long at the 2465 level to bet on a rebound, I will watch the situation and choose to trade on the right side. I hope the price doesn't adjust and turn down so quickly, mainly because the main market activity occurs at dawn, and the short position hasn't been taken yet.

Hearing that there are voices saying that institutions have already begun distributing at high levels. The main force of the distribution is led by BlackRock, and the purpose is not to clear positions, but to achieve high selling and low buying. Looking at the net inflow and outflow situation of the ETFs issued by BlackRock, indeed, on May 30, there was a significant net outflow, which was also the largest single-day net outflow since issuance.

Historically, every time BlackRock sells off significantly, the market is always in a process of significant decline or accelerated decline, and this usually continues for a period of time. Given this situation, I personally believe that even if prices experience a strong rebound, the possibility of a decline is still considerable. Or to put it this way, when BlackRock will launch another major offensive, that will be when prices can truly stabilize. Waiting for changes.

The "【BTC Balance on Exchanges】" shows that there is basically not much volume being moved from cold wallets to exchanges for large-scale sales. So why did it drop so sharply? The existing stock on exchanges is being traded back and forth; for short-term investors or medium-term investors, who have a small volume and many transactions, they basically buy and sell as they please. The large-scale sell-off primarily involves this portion of capital, which is extremely sensitive to price. As for long-term investors, with large volumes and low trading frequency, they typically do not keep their assets in the exchange's hot wallets but rather buy and transfer them to their own cold wallets.

However, from the chart, we can also see that the trend of continuously withdrawing coins has slowed down, and there may even be some increase. You can roughly consider that whenever there is a large-scale increase, that is when a continuous decline and a complete reversal may occur. #特朗普马斯克分歧 #美国初请失业金人数 #加密市场回调

【$btc】2025.6.6

①Yesterday's analysis clearly stated that once it fell below 102000, one could start buying in batches. The current price is 103000. So, will the price go up directly? It depends. I suggest that here you can engage in arbitrage, which means selling high and buying low. The resistance for a short-term rebound is around 103700. In other words, when the price approaches this level, you can sell first and wait to buy back after the price drops. At this point, someone might ask, will the price break through 103700 and go higher? There is indeed a possibility of a V-shaped reversal, but 103700 is a resistance level for a rebound. Unless we see a beautiful bullish candle at this position, the next level I will be looking at is around 1047000.

②Assuming that after encountering resistance at 103700, the price falls back, where should we look? Where is the support? It is still around 102000. If the price reaches this level, it is likely to pull back to 102000 before continuing to rebound. However, if it doesn't reach this level and directly breaks below 102000, we will be looking at around 101000. If this level cannot hold either, then we will continue to search for a bottom.

③If the price suddenly drops wildly and breaks the low of 100400 formed today, where can we see? 99600. If this really happens, be brave and buy the dip again, my friend! #特朗普马斯克分歧 #美国初请失业金人数 #加密市场回调

Yesterday, the US stock market rose slightly due to the smooth call between China and the United States. But then, due to Musk and Trump's public fight on social platforms, market sentiment took a sharp turn for the worse, and the US stock market directly entered a plunge mode, and Tesla's stock price fell by the largest single-day drop in history. In the past 24 hours, the market has been liquidated by 982 million US dollars, of which 889 million long orders have been liquidated. It's a bit miserable.

We often say that the rise driven by good news is not really a big rise, and vice versa. I can't understand why a quarrel on social media can cause an uproar. I think the most direct reason is that Tesla, as the leader of the technology sector, has plummeted, which has triggered a plunge in US stocks and indirectly negatively affected the entire crypto market. The open conflict messed up market sentiment, so this wave of decline is more like emotional catharsis rather than a trend reversal.

Although it is unlikely to be a trend reversal, the quarrel between Musk and Trump may shake the relationship between politics and business in the United States in the long run. For this reason, everyone is in a cautious wait-and-see state.

In addition, from the data, although Bitcoin is about to fall below $100,000, the turnover rate is not high. This is mainly because investors who have suffered short-term losses are panic selling, while early investors are still waiting and watching, so it is still a stable group. #特朗普马斯克分歧 #加密市场回调 #美国初请失业金人数

【$eth】2025.6.5

①Will $eth possibly continue to decline in tandem with $btc? For $eth, it has its own style; it is very strong when it's strong, and extremely weak when it's weak. Regarding the current trend, once the price effectively breaks below 2075, this feeling of weakness is likely to rise sharply. Before that, although it seems resilient against declines, it is actually brewing. Unless what? Unless it breaks through and stabilizes above the 2635 line, it would probably indicate a shift to a stronger trend. Right now, the price may be in a process of weakening oscillation, that is, oscillating downward.

②Since I believe the market is more of a weakening oscillation, I will naturally choose positions to set up short orders, prepare stop-losses, and guard against a final surge in price. Why is it the last surge? Because the short-term oscillation is nearing its end, it's time to choose a direction. The sign of a shift to a stronger trend lies in the price breaking through and stabilizing above 2635. However, before that, there is a pressure level at the 2620 line. This means that in order to stabilize above 2635, it must first break through 2620; if it can't even surpass 2620 and instead meets resistance and falls back, then we all understand the consequences below.

③The support below is mainly concentrated at the 2590 line. If it breaks below 2590, look for 2575; if it breaks below 2575, $eth will become very weak, likely just bouncing briefly before falling again. After 2575, the next level is the 2540 line. If it turns down, we will see this level first. #Strategy增持比特币 #韩国加密政策 #Circle扩大IPO规模

【$btc】2025.6.5

① Since the new high, $btc has started to decline, and as of today, it has been a full 2 weeks of decline. Does this mean that the price will undergo a significant correction and not rise again? Don't doubt your instincts; yes, you are right! It is undergoing a larger adjustment. The target position for this adjustment is at least 102000. So what if, from this moment on, the price starts to rise instead of fall? Will it break the previous high and set a new one? No, even if there is a rebound, it will only provide you with an opportunity to short.

② Therefore, from the above, we can extract one piece of information: 102000 is the first target position for adjustment and also an effective strong support. Even if 102000 is breached, it is quite possible that it will bounce back again. So for the subsequent trends, the 102000 line can serve as your starting point for gradually buying the dip. Note, it's gradual, not all in at once.

③ As for today's short-term trend, it is oscillating towards the downside. Unless it breaks through 106000 again, any rebound will be over, and the area above 106000 can serve as your stop-loss level for shorting. If the price here effectively breaks below the 103700 line, it may accelerate slightly.

In summary, one can be wary of a pullback but there is no need to panic. Even if it goes down, so what? What needs to rise will still rise. From the timeline perspective, the real need for a warning will probably be in July. This month will likely be dominated by wide oscillations.

【$btc】2025.6.3

①$btc reached a new high again, but it doesn't look strong. It has been in a low-level fluctuation for many days. Will it directly weaken and enter a bear market? Absolutely not. Put away any panic thoughts you may have; there’s even a chance for another new high in June. Currently, many are predicting a peak prematurely. All indicators are on the left side; although there are indeed signs of a peak gradually appearing, even if we take a step back and assume it really peaks, it will still provide multiple escape opportunities. There’s no rush; we’ll see how it goes. Regarding tariffs, Trump hopes countries will submit their best trade negotiation proposals by this Wednesday, with a final deadline set for July 8. The previous lawsuit concerning Trump’s tariffs is still under review, and preliminary results may not come until mid-month, so the impact of tariffs in the near term is likely minimal. As for the U.S. stock market, it remains in a state of fluctuating upward. Although the volatility isn’t large, it hasn’t reversed course either. As long as the U.S. stock market doesn’t continue to decline, it won’t negatively affect $btc, allowing the entire crypto market to operate independently.

②Although it has rebounded now, it’s not strong and is quite sluggish, dragging on for about three days. Looking at it this way, is the adjustment still continuing? The 106000 line, which I emphasized last week, has now become the strongest resistance. For the price to continue rising, the first priority is to stay above 106000. If it cannot hold above this level in the next two days, it will correspondingly continue to adjust. The defensive position below is at the 103700 line; if it falls below here, it will continue to seek a bottom, targeting the 102500 line.

③The upper resistance remains at the 106000 line. If it stabilizes, look for【107000-108000】. At this point, someone might say, but there isn’t much volatility! Yes, $btc is essentially in a fluctuating structure, so don’t expect it to have drastic movements for now. You can short when it goes up and long when it goes down. The support below is at the 104600 line, using the defensive position of 103700 as the stop-loss. It’s worth considering trying a long position. #我的COS交易 #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币

【$eth】2025.5.29

①Please refer to the analysis specifically for $eth on May 27th, that is, the day before yesterday, where point ③ mentions that if this wave is a valid rebound, then the future target will at least see 2785 and above. This morning at 10:30, it reached a maximum of 2788. So this round of rebound has basically been completely predicted and captured. This is not just talk; let's look at the analysis from that day. Point ② clearly states that since it could be a rebound, the price will not turn back to pick up people. If we want to continue rising, a shallow adjustment would be between 【2595-2610】, while a deeper one would be 【2560-2570】, but that would turn it back into a fluctuation market. In fact, yesterday's lowest price only came down to around 2608.

②Okay, now the question is, can it still rise? This round of rebound has reached my expectations, and if we want to continue to push up, we need to break through and stabilize above 2740. Otherwise, it will inevitably lead to $btc making another adjustment, and then we can talk about rising or rebounding again. Therefore, today's trend for $eth is very critical. If it drops instead of rising, effectively breaking below 2670 would likely lead to $btc going through an adjustment, at which time, $btc is estimated to have dropped back to around 107000.

③$eth needs to break 2740 to have the qualification for sustained upward movement, and the pressure above is near the previous high. If the price breaks the previous high, where can we see? If it effectively breaks 2790, we can see around 2870. However, at 2790, we cannot rule out the possibility of a false breakout, followed by a pullback.

In summary, since the price has reached a new high again, blindly being bullish may be somewhat unrealistic. For the coming days, we need to focus more on risk prevention. Of course, there’s no rush in these two days. Keep following my thoughts, and feel free to ask if you don’t understand; we'll take it step by step. #交易类型入门 #美国加征关税 #比特币2025大会

【$btc】2025.5.29

① Yesterday's decline was quite significant. Is it going to continue downward? Here, I want to emphasize that only if the price effectively breaks below 106000 is there a substantial risk of a reversal; if it doesn't break below, we will still see range fluctuations. And this range is 【106000-111000】. It just means that, currently, the bears have the upper hand. The cost-effectiveness of shorting is slightly higher, but the difference is not large, especially after experiencing a small decline yesterday. Moreover, after tonight, the Bitcoin conference will conclude, and after it officially ends, there is a considerable possibility that there will be a wave of profit-taking, which could be a bearish signal. Therefore, today, let's first look for a rebound in the market. As for how far it can rebound, we will analyze it one by one.

② Taking the 4-hour level as an example, the current pressure in the market is around the 109000 range, followed by the 110000 range. As mentioned yesterday, only if it can stabilize above 110000 is there a chance for further upward movement. Otherwise, it will be a fluctuation, biased towards the bear side, especially if it breaks below 106000, the bears will basically take control. Of course, don't expect that breaking below 106000 will lead to a significant drop; it won’t. Even if it breaks below 106000, it will likely rebound back to 106000 and above. It just means that the bearish fluctuation perspective will become more apparent. After breaking below 106000, low buying can be done, but high shorting can be done even more.

③ The key support below is around the 106000 range. The strongest support below is approximately around the 104000 range. If the price can really drop to this level, managing your bullets means going up. Of course, if it can continue to go down and then come back up, that would be the best scenario. #马斯克宣布离开特朗普政府 #交易类型入门 #内容挖矿赢最高100%WCT返佣

Be aware, there are reports that several large funds have teamed up to create an Ethereum hoarding plan, similar to what the current Bitcoin whales like MicroStrategy are doing, planning to raise $425 million through US stock SBET to hoard ETH.

Now the connection between US stocks and the cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly tight. Previously, MicroStrategy was crazily hoarding Bitcoin, then DFDV imitated MicroStrategy by hoarding SOL, and now SBET is here to hoard ETH. Although after these announcements, $btc did not reach a new high, $eth did indeed welcome a small rebound. The market sentiment has calmed down a bit now, and there is less FOMO.

For tariffs and Trump, the next step is to closely monitor the progress of agreements with India, Japan, and the European Union to see if they can give the market another push. In addition, the boss of MicroStrategy stated that if 10% of Wall Street's funds flow in, $btc will rise to $1 million each. The general manager of BlackRock also stated that the upside potential for $btc far exceeds that of gold. This is not just a call for someone to take over; these people are genuinely taking action to fight for chips.