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Irresponsible vague feeling is repeating last year's history.
Last year, February and March were a small peak for copycats, and then the second quarter was the blood sucking of Bitcoin. This year, it may be ETH.
Last year, the third quarter was a downward trend, and this year, interest rates have started to be cut or will be cut soon. The decline at the beginning of the interest rate cut is expected.
Last year, the fourth quarter was hyped ETF, and this year it may be replaced by ETH ETF.
Last year, February and March were a small peak for copycats, and then the second quarter was the blood sucking of Bitcoin. This year, it may be ETH.
Last year, the third quarter was a downward trend, and this year, interest rates have started to be cut or will be cut soon. The decline at the beginning of the interest rate cut is expected.
Last year, the fourth quarter was hyped ETF, and this year it may be replaced by ETH ETF.
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[2000-word interpretation] IoTeX, a Depin project that is not Depin, what is the difference between it and other Depins?
Yes, you read that right. As a Depin project, IoTeX itself is not a Depin.
➤ Let’s start with Depin
Depin is a relatively new concept. So, what is Depin?
Depin——Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network, decentralized physical infrastructure network.
The public chain is the most common Depin, which consists of many decentralized nodes (called miners on the POW network and validators on the POS network), thus forming the physical infrastructure of the network.
Decentralized storage is the second common type of Depin, where storage nodes perform storage tasks, thus forming a physical infrastructure network for decentralized storage.
➤ Let’s start with Depin
Depin is a relatively new concept. So, what is Depin?
Depin——Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network, decentralized physical infrastructure network.
The public chain is the most common Depin, which consists of many decentralized nodes (called miners on the POW network and validators on the POS network), thus forming the physical infrastructure of the network.
Decentralized storage is the second common type of Depin, where storage nodes perform storage tasks, thus forming a physical infrastructure network for decentralized storage.
See original
[Data] #Trump vs #Harris Who is currently leading?
#Polymarket prediction platform shows Trump is leading. However, polling results indicate Harris is ahead.
So, who is actually leading now? #Election #USElection2024
➤ The vote counting mechanism of the U.S. election
To understand the answer, one must first understand the #USelection vote counting mechanism.
A concept that is more familiar to the Chinese can be used to compare the U.S. election vote counting, which is similar to our middle school entrance examination—'indicators to school.'
The U.S. election vote counting is 'indicators' to the states. How are these 'indicators' determined?
❚ Electoral Votes
Each state has a different number of representatives based on population, and each representative corresponds to 1 'electoral vote.'
So, who is actually leading now? #Election #USElection2024
➤ The vote counting mechanism of the U.S. election
To understand the answer, one must first understand the #USelection vote counting mechanism.
A concept that is more familiar to the Chinese can be used to compare the U.S. election vote counting, which is similar to our middle school entrance examination—'indicators to school.'
The U.S. election vote counting is 'indicators' to the states. How are these 'indicators' determined?
❚ Electoral Votes
Each state has a different number of representatives based on population, and each representative corresponds to 1 'electoral vote.'
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That man has returned, feeling the most changed pectoral muscles (I guess, the left chest has valleys, and the right chest has bamboo ready for growth.) Indeed, there is no difficulty that can stop an excellent person from becoming even better!
The first return is @cz_binance
The second return is #Trump ,
The third return, could it be a bull market?
(I have always believed that the big bull market has not arrived)
The first return is @cz_binance
The second return is #Trump ,
The third return, could it be a bull market?
(I have always believed that the big bull market has not arrived)
See original
Brother Bee has come to some heart-wrenching truths after some thought:
Community or group:
A collection of people who shout while selling—community is originally like birds in the same forest, flying away when the big bear comes.
KOL:
"Transfer payments" in the cryptocurrency world. Some KOLs earn advertising fees from project parties and then lose them back in KOL rounds or the secondary market—they don't make money, they are just money movers.
KOL round:
It means KOLs are cycled...
Smart money:
It might just be a mouse warehouse (this view was contributed by Brother Bee's husband).
Narrative:
It means convincing you to spend money to buy their coins.
Shanzhai season:
A chaotic dance of demons, now more suitable for MEME season. The Shanzhai season can now be renamed to—The Battle of the Gods.
USDT:
The Federal Reserve of the cryptocurrency world.
Defi:
Taking from the rich and giving to the poor.
Ethereum vs High-speed public chains vs ETHLayer:
Taobao Tianmao vs Pinduoduo vs Taobao discounted version.
Code audit:
A type of service—why is it called "audit"? Because it may be preventing internal programmers from doing evil. After all, internal programmers know the vulnerabilities of their dAPPs better than hackers.
A backing—For the market, brand auditing agencies actually provide a form of backing, which may not necessarily eliminate security issues with high probability.
Interest rate cut:
The medicine for economic recession.
Washing the disk:
You can see how dirty this disk is. (Let’s summarize this at the end)
All of the above should be first proposed by Brother Bee, and many have now spread widely.
Do you agree? If you do, feel free to share! It's advisable not to overly trust any of the above! Including communities, KOLs, smart money...
Community or group:
A collection of people who shout while selling—community is originally like birds in the same forest, flying away when the big bear comes.
KOL:
"Transfer payments" in the cryptocurrency world. Some KOLs earn advertising fees from project parties and then lose them back in KOL rounds or the secondary market—they don't make money, they are just money movers.
KOL round:
It means KOLs are cycled...
Smart money:
It might just be a mouse warehouse (this view was contributed by Brother Bee's husband).
Narrative:
It means convincing you to spend money to buy their coins.
Shanzhai season:
A chaotic dance of demons, now more suitable for MEME season. The Shanzhai season can now be renamed to—The Battle of the Gods.
USDT:
The Federal Reserve of the cryptocurrency world.
Defi:
Taking from the rich and giving to the poor.
Ethereum vs High-speed public chains vs ETHLayer:
Taobao Tianmao vs Pinduoduo vs Taobao discounted version.
Code audit:
A type of service—why is it called "audit"? Because it may be preventing internal programmers from doing evil. After all, internal programmers know the vulnerabilities of their dAPPs better than hackers.
A backing—For the market, brand auditing agencies actually provide a form of backing, which may not necessarily eliminate security issues with high probability.
Interest rate cut:
The medicine for economic recession.
Washing the disk:
You can see how dirty this disk is. (Let’s summarize this at the end)
All of the above should be first proposed by Brother Bee, and many have now spread widely.
Do you agree? If you do, feel free to share! It's advisable not to overly trust any of the above! Including communities, KOLs, smart money...
See original
What exactly is "narrative"? What is a good "narrative"?
(I)
The word "narrative" sounds rather illusory. However, if I define "narrative" behavior as - persuading the market to invest, does it become clear in an instant?
(II)
Regarding what is a good narrative, market data has revealed the answer for us. The investment growth attracted by the "chain abstraction" sector is far ahead, and it has undoubtedly become the most convincing narrative example at this stage.
The characteristics of the "chain abstraction" narrative mainly include: infrastructure attributes, high technical barriers, emerging sectors and other key aspects.
• Infrastructure attributes, in the multi-chain universe, the top-level application ecology has a rigid demand for "chain abstraction".
• High technical barriers indicate that participating in "chain abstraction" on the supply side requires considerable professional knowledge, and its realization also requires considerable resources and costs.
• Emerging sectors imply that "chain abstraction" has a relatively broad development prospect and greater growth potential.
It can be seen from this that a good narrative should at least show convincing persuasion in the three dimensions of demand, supply and growth space.
(III)
This can be used as a framework for analyzing sector or project narratives.
Three standards: demand, supply, and emerging (growth space).
MEME coins have great demand, but the technical and cost support on the supply side is relatively small. Some MEMEs are not pure MEMEs and can make products, so they will have more growth potential. As for growth space, it is no longer an emerging sector.
AI sector has strong technicality on the supply side, but the demand for the combination of AI and blockchain does not seem to be understood. Emergence is in the middle.
This can also explain why imitations are not as good as innovative products. Although imitations and innovative products may face similar demands, imitations have lower R&D and implementation costs on the supply side. On the other hand, imitations are naturally less emerging than original products.
(IV)
We can analyze the narratives of some sectors or tokens from these three perspectives.
It needs to be added that:
First, VCs will study and assess the technicality of projects when investing, so VCs can be placed in the supply side dimension.
Second, FDV. FDV is now one of the important indicators for the market to measure investability.FDV can also be considered on the demand side.
(I)
The word "narrative" sounds rather illusory. However, if I define "narrative" behavior as - persuading the market to invest, does it become clear in an instant?
(II)
Regarding what is a good narrative, market data has revealed the answer for us. The investment growth attracted by the "chain abstraction" sector is far ahead, and it has undoubtedly become the most convincing narrative example at this stage.
The characteristics of the "chain abstraction" narrative mainly include: infrastructure attributes, high technical barriers, emerging sectors and other key aspects.
• Infrastructure attributes, in the multi-chain universe, the top-level application ecology has a rigid demand for "chain abstraction".
• High technical barriers indicate that participating in "chain abstraction" on the supply side requires considerable professional knowledge, and its realization also requires considerable resources and costs.
• Emerging sectors imply that "chain abstraction" has a relatively broad development prospect and greater growth potential.
It can be seen from this that a good narrative should at least show convincing persuasion in the three dimensions of demand, supply and growth space.
(III)
This can be used as a framework for analyzing sector or project narratives.
Three standards: demand, supply, and emerging (growth space).
MEME coins have great demand, but the technical and cost support on the supply side is relatively small. Some MEMEs are not pure MEMEs and can make products, so they will have more growth potential. As for growth space, it is no longer an emerging sector.
AI sector has strong technicality on the supply side, but the demand for the combination of AI and blockchain does not seem to be understood. Emergence is in the middle.
This can also explain why imitations are not as good as innovative products. Although imitations and innovative products may face similar demands, imitations have lower R&D and implementation costs on the supply side. On the other hand, imitations are naturally less emerging than original products.
(IV)
We can analyze the narratives of some sectors or tokens from these three perspectives.
It needs to be added that:
First, VCs will study and assess the technicality of projects when investing, so VCs can be placed in the supply side dimension.
Second, FDV. FDV is now one of the important indicators for the market to measure investability.FDV can also be considered on the demand side.
See original
Yes, even if there is no banker when a coin is issued, there may be hot money coming to make a banker in the middle. Retail investors are not so united, and the obvious rise is most likely big money!
The question is, is this an invisible hand? Or a visible hand?
You say it is invisible, it is actually a centralized force.
You say it is visible, some retail investors think it is fully circulated and there is no banker.
I would like to call it an invisible visible hand, or simply the mastermind.
The reason why it is invisible is because it is dark! !
The question is, is this an invisible hand? Or a visible hand?
You say it is invisible, it is actually a centralized force.
You say it is visible, some retail investors think it is fully circulated and there is no banker.
I would like to call it an invisible visible hand, or simply the mastermind.
The reason why it is invisible is because it is dark! !
See original
(1) Capital overflow
This graph is very interesting. The cryptocurrency market is a pool of three US dollars. The US dollar overflows from US bonds to US stocks and then to the cryptocurrency market.
(2) Risk and sentiment overflow
This capital overflow process is actually accompanied by the process of risk and sentiment overflow.
US bonds, US stocks and cryptocurrencies are risk-free assets, risky assets and high-risk assets respectively.
Capital, risk and sentiment will gradually overflow from US bonds to US stocks and the cryptocurrency market.
(3) Expectation advance
However, what is more interesting is that most people should have discovered that cryptocurrency traders are more impatient and more sensitive than US stock investors.
The first interest rate cut in mid-2019, the big pie reached its peak, and fell after the interest rate cut. The US stock market rose after the interest rate cut. There are many similar examples.
(4) A set of contradictions
This actually forms a set of contradictions: the contradiction between expectations and funds - expectations are advanced, while funds lag behind.
The result of this contradiction is the bull market. The bull market can reflect the situation where expectations are advanced but funds are not in place. Two major characteristics: one is that the increase is relatively limited, and the other is that there is no copycat season.
Before the funds overflow to the cryptocurrency market, those who bought into the alt market at a higher level (me) may have to go through a tortuous process before the alt market season arrives.
The solution to this contradiction is to only invest heavily in BTC in the early stage, and selectively invest in alt markets in small amounts, and then gradually switch positions to alt markets after funds, risks, and emotions begin to expand to US stocks.
This graph is very interesting. The cryptocurrency market is a pool of three US dollars. The US dollar overflows from US bonds to US stocks and then to the cryptocurrency market.
(2) Risk and sentiment overflow
This capital overflow process is actually accompanied by the process of risk and sentiment overflow.
US bonds, US stocks and cryptocurrencies are risk-free assets, risky assets and high-risk assets respectively.
Capital, risk and sentiment will gradually overflow from US bonds to US stocks and the cryptocurrency market.
(3) Expectation advance
However, what is more interesting is that most people should have discovered that cryptocurrency traders are more impatient and more sensitive than US stock investors.
The first interest rate cut in mid-2019, the big pie reached its peak, and fell after the interest rate cut. The US stock market rose after the interest rate cut. There are many similar examples.
(4) A set of contradictions
This actually forms a set of contradictions: the contradiction between expectations and funds - expectations are advanced, while funds lag behind.
The result of this contradiction is the bull market. The bull market can reflect the situation where expectations are advanced but funds are not in place. Two major characteristics: one is that the increase is relatively limited, and the other is that there is no copycat season.
Before the funds overflow to the cryptocurrency market, those who bought into the alt market at a higher level (me) may have to go through a tortuous process before the alt market season arrives.
The solution to this contradiction is to only invest heavily in BTC in the early stage, and selectively invest in alt markets in small amounts, and then gradually switch positions to alt markets after funds, risks, and emotions begin to expand to US stocks.
See original
The bitcoin price fluctuates around 65,000.
This is a good thing!
When it falls, it often falls slowly first and then falls sharply. When it rises, whether it is the entire bull market or each wave, it rises slowly first, then quickly, and finally rises wildly, and then ends.
If it goes up now, wouldn’t it be the top of the stage?
It will consolidate and rest at this position, and it is highly likely to continue to rise after it stabilizes.
This is a good thing!
When it falls, it often falls slowly first and then falls sharply. When it rises, whether it is the entire bull market or each wave, it rises slowly first, then quickly, and finally rises wildly, and then ends.
If it goes up now, wouldn’t it be the top of the stage?
It will consolidate and rest at this position, and it is highly likely to continue to rise after it stabilizes.
See original
The short-term bullish and bearish trends are not very obvious.
Brother Feng is slightly inclined to bullish:
Reason one is that CZ is about to return. CZ's return is good for BNB, but it is not actually good for the market. But there is sentiment.
Reason two is that the general election is coming in November, and the United States has no reason to release any negative news at this point.
In Japan, Brother Feng learned from teacher @qinbafrank that Japan's inflation is likely to be imported inflation, that is, domestic inflation caused by high import prices. When the US dollar cuts interest rates, Japan's inflation can theoretically be alleviated, so there is no need to alleviate inflation by raising interest rates.
So for the time being, Brother Feng tends to be bullish.
Brother Feng hardly plays contracts, and all discussions do not constitute any opinions on contract trading. As for spot, in fact, at this time, discussing the rise and fall of spot is not very meaningful. What should be discussed is the market narrative, and finding a potential track or even a dark horse is the key.
Brother Feng is slightly inclined to bullish:
Reason one is that CZ is about to return. CZ's return is good for BNB, but it is not actually good for the market. But there is sentiment.
Reason two is that the general election is coming in November, and the United States has no reason to release any negative news at this point.
In Japan, Brother Feng learned from teacher @qinbafrank that Japan's inflation is likely to be imported inflation, that is, domestic inflation caused by high import prices. When the US dollar cuts interest rates, Japan's inflation can theoretically be alleviated, so there is no need to alleviate inflation by raising interest rates.
So for the time being, Brother Feng tends to be bullish.
Brother Feng hardly plays contracts, and all discussions do not constitute any opinions on contract trading. As for spot, in fact, at this time, discussing the rise and fall of spot is not very meaningful. What should be discussed is the market narrative, and finding a potential track or even a dark horse is the key.
See original
Analyzing the growth potential of derivatives DEX and focusing on the new DEX option for perpetual contracts - SphereX
Looking back at the bull market in 2021, the DeFi track led the market. It is worth noting that DeFi has already emerged in 2020 - lending mining in the first half of the year and transaction mining in the middle of the year were all the rage.
Reasoning according to this historical pattern, in the upcoming new round of bull market, derivatives DEX is likely to become one of the tracks worthy of close attention.
➤ Derivatives DEX
❚ The potential of derivatives DEX
According to the data collected by coinmarketcap:
There are 500 spot DEXs in the market, which is about twice the number of spot CEXs.
However, there are only 16 derivatives DEXs, less than one-sixth of derivatives CEXs.
Reasoning according to this historical pattern, in the upcoming new round of bull market, derivatives DEX is likely to become one of the tracks worthy of close attention.
➤ Derivatives DEX
❚ The potential of derivatives DEX
According to the data collected by coinmarketcap:
There are 500 spot DEXs in the market, which is about twice the number of spot CEXs.
However, there are only 16 derivatives DEXs, less than one-sixth of derivatives CEXs.
See original
My friend said that most people think that the rate cut is "good news but bad news".
When most people think so, wouldn't the first rate cut be a bad news?
If the rate cut is 25%, it may be calm and tangled for a while, and then the market will find that there may be no power to fall (after all, most people think it is bad news, and they have already sold what they should sell), then what?
If the rate cut is 50%, it may fall a little, and then the market will find that the decline is not much (after all, the market now expects a 50% rate cut more, and most of the stocks that should be sold have been sold), then what?
When most people think so, wouldn't the first rate cut be a bad news?
If the rate cut is 25%, it may be calm and tangled for a while, and then the market will find that there may be no power to fall (after all, most people think it is bad news, and they have already sold what they should sell), then what?
If the rate cut is 50%, it may fall a little, and then the market will find that the decline is not much (after all, the market now expects a 50% rate cut more, and most of the stocks that should be sold have been sold), then what?
LIVETVBee
--
Two perspectives on the short-term bullish view
Let me first state the conclusion:
1. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, there will be certain benefits.
2. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it may fall first and then rise.
3. Looking back at 2019, we are now in December 2019, and there may be a wave of rising prices next.
4. In addition to paying attention to the Federal Reserve, we should also pay attention to Japan’s interest rate decision tomorrow.
5. There may still be some twists and turns before the main bull market wave begins.
➤The Fed’s rate cut decision tonight
Previously, it was believed that a 50 basis point rate cut would be a remedy for the economic recession. Most people expected a 25 basis point rate cut, which is a good or bad thing, but a 50 basis point cut is considered a bad thing.
1. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, there will be certain benefits.
2. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it may fall first and then rise.
3. Looking back at 2019, we are now in December 2019, and there may be a wave of rising prices next.
4. In addition to paying attention to the Federal Reserve, we should also pay attention to Japan’s interest rate decision tomorrow.
5. There may still be some twists and turns before the main bull market wave begins.
➤The Fed’s rate cut decision tonight
Previously, it was believed that a 50 basis point rate cut would be a remedy for the economic recession. Most people expected a 25 basis point rate cut, which is a good or bad thing, but a 50 basis point cut is considered a bad thing.
See original
Trending
Two perspectives on the short-term bullish view
Let me first state the conclusion:
1. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, there will be certain benefits.
2. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it may fall first and then rise.
3. Looking back at 2019, we are now in December 2019, and there may be a wave of rising prices next.
4. In addition to paying attention to the Federal Reserve, we should also pay attention to Japan’s interest rate decision tomorrow.
5. There may still be some twists and turns before the main bull market wave begins.
➤The Fed’s rate cut decision tonight
Previously, it was believed that a 50 basis point rate cut would be a remedy for the economic recession. Most people expected a 25 basis point rate cut, which is a good or bad thing, but a 50 basis point cut is considered a bad thing.
1. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, there will be certain benefits.
2. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it may fall first and then rise.
3. Looking back at 2019, we are now in December 2019, and there may be a wave of rising prices next.
4. In addition to paying attention to the Federal Reserve, we should also pay attention to Japan’s interest rate decision tomorrow.
5. There may still be some twists and turns before the main bull market wave begins.
➤The Fed’s rate cut decision tonight
Previously, it was believed that a 50 basis point rate cut would be a remedy for the economic recession. Most people expected a 25 basis point rate cut, which is a good or bad thing, but a 50 basis point cut is considered a bad thing.
See original
DAppOS + Binance Wallet jointly launches a prize-giving event
This market situation is not suitable for making any efforts. It is better to complete tasks, get rewards, and experience new things!
Binance, Polychain, Sequoia and other first-tier institutions have invested 20 million US dollars in dappOS, and jointly launched a prize-giving event with Binance Wallet. The tasks are simple and the operation is smooth. The total prize is as high as 500,000U. It is first come first served and worth participating.
Task 1: Deposit and mint at least $10 worth of intent assets (including intentUSD, intentETH, and intentBTC).
Rewards: Eligible participants will share 200,000 USDC.
Tutorial: Step 1: Open dappOS and connect to Binance wallet
Binance, Polychain, Sequoia and other first-tier institutions have invested 20 million US dollars in dappOS, and jointly launched a prize-giving event with Binance Wallet. The tasks are simple and the operation is smooth. The total prize is as high as 500,000U. It is first come first served and worth participating.
Task 1: Deposit and mint at least $10 worth of intent assets (including intentUSD, intentETH, and intentBTC).
Rewards: Eligible participants will share 200,000 USDC.
Tutorial: Step 1: Open dappOS and connect to Binance wallet
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