Is Trump assured of winning?
On November 4, 2024, at 22:30 Beijing time, let's take a look at the changes in the new polls.
➤ Swing States
The platform did not list Florida as a swing state, a state that has shown consistent support for Trump. Next, Brother Bee places the votes from this state into Trump’s "moderate votes."
In the other 7 swing states, observe the trend of the red and blue lines:
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• Georgia (16 votes) and Arizona (11 votes) show relatively stable support for Trump.
• Michigan (15 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) show relatively stable support for Harris.
• North Carolina (16 votes) shows average stability in support for Trump.
• Pennsylvania (19 votes) and Nevada (6 votes) have just turned to support Trump.
• Polls in Pennsylvania show that yesterday the support for both was tied, and now it slightly leans towards Trump.
➤ Non-Swing States
In non-swing states, other states generally maintain a consistent partisan inclination.
Only one, the red state, Iowa, has inconsistent poll results from three companies. This state did vote for the Democratic candidate Obama in 2008-2012.
Among the results from the three polling companies, two showed higher support for Trump in Iowa at the beginning of January. The other company’s poll results from October 28-31 showed higher support for Harris in Iowa.
Thus, Brother Bee counts Iowa as voting for Trump and includes it in the swing votes (moderate).
➤ Data on November 4
The new statistics are as follows:
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After the new categorization, it can be seen that Harris’s 251 votes are relatively stable, while Trump has a relatively stable total of 240 votes.
Among Trump's unstable support votes, there are 22 votes with moderate stability (16 votes from swing state North Carolina, and 6 votes from red state Iowa), and 25 votes with unstable support (19 votes from Pennsylvania and 6 votes from Nevada).
Polls may not fully reflect the actual sentiments of voters, and the performances of Trump and Harris before the election could affect voter swings at any time.
Although polls show Trump leading temporarily, it is not guaranteed.
Quietly wishing for the best!