Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?

The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.

If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.

The funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual futures soared to 0.035% of the daily asking price, which is equivalent to an annual interest rate of nearly 13%, the highest since December 5, indicating that market speculation is high. With Trump taking office as president, the price of Bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, breaking through $109,000 at one point. Most of this increase was the price paid for the contract with high leverage. The market has very high expectations for Trump, and investor sentiment has also turned to greed.

The unrealized net profit and loss (NUPL) indicator of long-term Bitcoin holders broke through 0.75, indicating that the market has entered a greed stage. At the same time, the short-term holder return indicator (STH MVRV) rebounded to 1.16, exceeding the 1-year trend line of 1.1, indicating that short-, medium- and long-term investors already have huge unrealized profits. The follow-up depends on Trump’s speech and comments on the cryptocurrency market and the executive orders he signed later.

Trump was sworn in early this morning.
What is a little regrettable for the crypto industry is that Trump did not mention cryptocurrencies in his nearly one-hour inauguration speech, and did not mention Bitcoin or Crypto in the many executive orders he signed on the first day. This made us who stayed up late to watch Trump's inauguration somewhat disappointed, as if it was not him who issued the Meme coin TRUMP on the Solana chain a few days ago, and further caused people to doubt the implementation schedule of the crypto support policy.
In addition, the most convincing evidence that Trump will not abandon Crypto may be the DeFi project World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which is inextricably linked to his family. Yesterday, in order to celebrate Trump's 47th term as the 47th President of the United States, World Liberty Financial announced the purchase of a variety of crypto assets, including ETH, wBTC, Aave, LINK, TRX and ENA, with each token purchased for $47 million or $4.7 million, with a total cost of more than $112.8 million (rich people really celebrate in different ways).

There are two perspectives to think about here:
From the first perspective, the first half of the bull market after the approval of the BTC ETF was very small, with an increase of no more than 20%, while the Trump narrative has brought about a nearly 50% increase from around $70,000 to around $100,000, which has overdrawn the bull market, or the market has already priced in the Trump narrative. Several direct evidences are: first, in the early hours of January 18, BTC was very close to its all-time high, but then fell back and did not reach a new ATH; second, after Trump issued the official Meme coin, it sucked blood from BTC, and the exchange rates of SOL/BTC and SOL/ETH soared by 20%. For the cryptocurrency market, the stock of funds is not sufficient, and the increase in one liquidity comes at the expense of the decrease in another liquidity, and there is no independent increase in liquidity.

Bitcoin fell to $90,000 last week after the California wildfires, which also caused significant corrections in other cryptocurrencies.
After the bloody crash of Bitcoin, the market quickly regained momentum, benefitting from the January 11 announcement by the U.S. Department of Labor that the core CPI index would rise by 1% month-on-month, indicating that inflation pressures are not as dire as the market had thought.
This led to Bitcoin quickly climbing back to $94,000 and further targeting $100,000, largely benefiting from continuous net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Since the CPI data was released, trading days for Bitcoin ETFs have shown net inflows, driving the overall upward trend.

Trump! Trump! Trump! The only hot topic these days; everything you see is about it, and even in dreams...
Yesterday it was still tens of billions, today it has reached seven hundred billion...
No one expected that at the moment when Trump was about to be inaugurated as the President of the United States with just 3 days left, this man would make a big move by "releasing an official Meme coin," sending many people a "New Year red envelope"!

Market cap reached $70 billion in 48 hours.
TRUMP went live just 24 hours and was listed on top trading platforms such as OKX, Coinbase, and Binance, setting a record for the shortest time for a token to go live on spot. Almost immediately after its release, there was no pullback, with the unit price surpassing $7 billion in 48 hours, and the circulating market cap exceeding $14 billion, with the total market cap briefly exceeding $70 billion. Meanwhile, since this token was issued on Solana, it also directly contributed to SOL breaking its historical high in this cycle.

Another person became rich overnight
It is hard to tell whether it is true or false, solitaire makes money first
On the morning of January 18, cryptocurrency once again welcomed a milestone event — the incoming U.S. President-elect Trump personally issued the currency!
At 10:00 sharp, Trump first announced on his social media platform Truth Social that he would launch his personal Meme coin TRUMP. Users need to visit the website with the domain name GetTrumpMemes to purchase the token.

Although the market is still unsure whether this was done by Trump himself or a malicious operation after his social media account was stolen, under the crazy FOMO sentiment trend, the token began to soar, and its market value quickly exceeded US$2 billion.

Amid inflation pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical volatility, CPI lower than expected has temporarily injected a strong stimulus into the market. With Trump's inauguration and the start of earnings season, the future monetary fiscal path will become a focal point of market attention.
The price of BTC has risen with the release of multiple catalysts. Overall, if the BTC price breaks through $103,000, BTC may enter a structurally bullish phase. However, it is particularly important to remain vigilant amidst FOMO sentiment and balance risks, as reasonably assessing tactical buying time points and dynamically balancing asset allocation will be crucial in 2025.

This week, Bitcoin price broke through the downward trend and briefly returned to $100,000 due to good performance of PPI and CPI data and boosted market expectations for Trump's policies after taking office.
What potential investment opportunities are there at present?

I won’t discuss here the direct impact of Trump’s coming to power on the crypto market. I have mentioned it in previous articles, and everyone should know that it is good for the crypto market in the long run.
Recently, U.S. economic data has become a hot topic in the market. CPI and PPI data for December showed a significant decline in inflationary pressures, suggesting the Fed may slow its pace of interest rate hikes. Additionally, the CME FedWatch tool shows a greater than 60% chance of two Fed rate cuts in 2025.

If you want to achieve life-changing gains in this cycle, you need to correctly build your portfolio. However, the performance of this cycle has been different from our expectations, with ETH's price stabilizing around $3,200.
BTC broke 100,000 for the first time, ETH 4,000
BTC broke 100,000 for the second time, ETH 3,900
BTC broke 100,000 for the third time, ETH 3,700
BTC broke 100,000 for the fourth time, ETH 3,400
A comprehensive altcoin season like in the past has not occurred yet.
What’s more surprising is that new investment trends emerge every few weeks, so adapting to market changes is crucial.

Last night (15th) around 9:30 PM, following the announcement of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, Bitcoin quickly surged from the $96,000 level to the $100,000 range, even briefly surpassing $100,000 at 4 AM today, reaching a peak of $100,866 with a maximum increase of 4.1%.
In the past 24 hours, the liquidation volume reached $355 million, with a major liquidation of short positions amounting to $226 million. Bitcoin has continued to break through the $100,000 mark despite poor overall economic conditions, bringing market sentiment to a relatively greedy state.

Market sentiment has somewhat eased in the short term, but it has not broken this year's high, indicating a possible consolidation period ahead. As of the time of writing, the current price is reported at $99,962, with a slight drop of 1.84% over the past 24 hours.

FTX currently has 14.7 billion to 16.5 billion dollars available to repay customers and other creditors.
For the market, the mixed feelings seem more obvious; FTX's compensation means liquidity may rush in, but its sell-off fundraising has also cast a shadow over some cryptocurrencies.
It must be acknowledged that this black swan event from two years ago is still having a profound impact on the crypto market even now.
On January 3 of this year, FTX's debtor restructuring plan officially took effect. The first batch of debts will begin compensation within 60 days after January 3 takes effect.

16 billion dollars, how does FTX come about? Where will the funds flow to?

Bitcoin rebounded to $97,300, benefiting from the U.S. PPI data being below expectations and rumors about Trump’s policies, with tonight's (1/15) release of December CPI data becoming the market focus.

PPI is lower than expected, and the market is focusing on CPI.
After briefly falling below the $90,000 mark, Bitcoin rebounded from its low and once challenged the $97,700 high, mainly driven by two positive news items, including rumors that Trump is preparing to issue an executive order favorable to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data coming in below expectations.
Due to the recent strong performance of U.S. economic data, the market has begun to lower expectations for interest rate cuts this year, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The market generally believes that Bitcoin will consolidate sideways in the near term.