In the realm of cryptocurrency, Active Addresses are a key metric for understanding the level of activity on the BTC network, investor participation, and market trends. By applying the monthly moving average (30DMA) and the annual moving average (365DMA), we can observe the market momentum.

Historically, a strong crossing of the 30DMA below the 365DMA, known as a 'death cross', has indicated a shift from a bull to a bear market. In the current cycle, the death cross has been present since the all-time high (ATH).

While the decline isn't steep enough to definitively signal a bear market, caution is advised due to the potential for a deepening correction. If the 30DMA drops further, it would be wise to prepare for a macro bearish reversal. Despite these cautionary signals, the market's inherent volatility and potential for growth maintain an overall optimistic outlook.

In recent times, cryptocurrency market fluctuations have been largely attributed to miners, particularly following the Bitcoin halving event. The halving resulted in mining rewards being slashed by half, rendering older mining machines redundant due to cost-inefficiency. Consequently, mining activity saw a decline as miners resorted to selling Bitcoin via OTC transactions to cover operational costs.

The current market is perceived as being in a phase of absorbing this sell-off. Encouragingly, the volume and frequency of Bitcoins being transferred out of miners' wallets have seen a swift downturn. This suggests a weakening in miners' selling pressure. If this selling volume is fully absorbed, it could pave the way for a potential upward rally.

Given these dynamics, there is reason to be optimistic about cryptocurrency market movements in the third quarter of 2024.

In the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, TON has emerged as a standout asset in 2024, consistently breaking its historical high, a feat yet to be achieved by most altcoins. The "Price Drawdown Heatmap by Crypto" analysis reveals that TON has repeatedly surpassed its All-Time High (ATH) price, indicating the project's resilience and appeal to investors in a fiercely competitive market.

Another key performance indicator is the "Price Drawdown from ATH" chart, which measures the percentage relative to its last peak. TON's ability to consistently break its own records demonstrates not only its continuous growth but also its effective management of inherent volatility in the crypto market. This optimistic outlook underscores the project's potential in the ever-evolving blockchain landscape.

In the crypto market, BTC open interest remains high, driven by an $8B surge in short positions compared to $1B in longs. This pattern, reminiscent of the April-May trend, suggests a need for further cooldown.

The BTC liquidation map raises the question of who will face liquidation first. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin supply in profit has dipped to 76%, typically signaling a great buying opportunity.

Despite the market fluctuations, long-term Bitcoin holders have not signaled a sell yet. This, coupled with the belief that we're still in a bull market, indicates that the bull market remains active.

However, another retest is likely, and the market should anticipate ongoing FUD news for a while. Despite the potential challenges, the outlook remains optimistic for those invested in the crypto market.

Written by elcryptotavo.

In March 2024, Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) reached an overheating point of 2.8 during its recovery phase, indicating a potential price or temporal adjustment. Currently, the MVRV has decreased to around 1.99, with the MV being less than twice the RV. This is approaching the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands and the 4-year moving average based on Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, which are at 1.89 and 1.82 respectively.

Historically, during peaks of overheating in recovery phases, the market typically adjusted to these regions. The MV would decrease, or the RV would increase, showing signs of resolving the MVRV overheating. These signs were usually observed just before the start of a parabolic rise, likely due to profit-taking by smart money and the influx of new funds driven by news and SNS mentions.

The continued balance of these factors resolved the MVRV overheating, which generally indicated a local bottom. It is crucial to monitor if this will be the case this time as well.

The Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score heatmap reveals that larger Bitcoin holders (1-10k BTC) have been distributing their coins, suggesting profit-taking behavior at near all-time high prices. Conversely, smaller holders (less than 1 BTC), often referred to as retail addresses, have shown consistent accumulation, indicating a strong belief in Bitcoin's long-term value.

Interestingly, addresses holding more than 10k BTC have also shown recent accumulation, although many of these belong to exchanges. It's common to see smaller address reserves migrating to larger exchange addresses.

To complement this analysis, the "Bitcoin: Accumulation vs. Distribution by All Cohorts (60D)" chart can be used to evaluate the 60-day variation in Bitcoin supply by cohort, providing deeper insight into the sentiment and behavior of different groups of holders.

These indicators offer a comprehensive understanding of how Bitcoin supply is managed, from retail investors to major market players. By analyzing these trends, we can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and potential future price movements.

Bitmex, a decade-old cryptocurrency exchange, is home to a substantial number of crypto whales. A recent analysis indicates a correlation between the movements of Ethereum (ETH) reserves and its price. Notably, a surge in Ethereum reserves is often followed by a dip in its price. On September 28, Bitmex's reserves experienced a sharp drop, which subsequently led to an increase in ETH's price.

This trend suggests that when Ethereum whales on Bitmex make purchases, the exchange's reserves decrease. Conversely, when they sell, the reserves increase. This insight could be valuable for traders and investors in predicting market trends and making informed decisions.

The analysis, provided by BlitzzTrading, underscores the influence of large-scale investors on the crypto market. It also highlights the importance of monitoring on-chain data and exchange reserves in understanding market dynamics.

The cryptocurrency market has recently seen a significant shift in the Funding Rate of TON (The Open Network), which has turned negative again, indicating an increased interest in short positions among traders. The Funding Rate is a mechanism used in perpetual and futures contracts of cryptocurrencies to balance the market price with the contract price. A negative Funding Rate can incentivize traders to take short positions, anticipating a potential price drop, increase market volatility, and pose challenges for long positions.

Bybit, among exchanges, has been noted for contributing to an even more negative Funding Rate, possibly due to higher trading activity in derivatives or specific market dynamics on their platform. Furthermore, the Aggregated Funding Rate and Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate, which consider the behavior across all exchanges where TON is traded, are also negative. This suggests that the trend of interest in short positions extends widely across the market. Despite these indicators, the market outlook remains optimistic.

In the realm of cryptocurrency investment strategy, the effective use of technical analysis tools is vital. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) and SSR (Stablecoin Supply Ratio) are key indicators that offer valuable insights into Bitcoin's price fluctuations.

RSI, which measures the speed and change of price movements over a typical 14-day period, ranges between 0 and 100. An RSI above 70 often signals a potential price correction, while an RSI below 30 suggests a potential price recovery.

SSR, on the other hand, reflects the ratio of stablecoin supply to Bitcoin market capitalization. A high SSR indicates stablecoins are being converted to BTC, thus increasing selling pressure. Conversely, a low SSR suggests stablecoin accumulation, indicating potential buying power.

The interplay between RSI and SSR can provide buy and sell signals. A high RSI and SSR usually signal an overbought market and potential price correction, while a low RSI and SSR typically indicate an oversold market and potential price recovery.

At present, the RSI SSR indicator stands at 26, suggesting a suitable region for accumulation. Implementing a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy could be beneficial at these levels.

While the combination of RSI and SSR can aid in identifying Bitcoin trading opportunities, it is advisable to use these indicators in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for more reliable investment decisions.

In a recent analysis of Unspent Transaction Output (UTO) in profit during last year's consolidation phase, it was observed that despite the price being in a consolidation phase, UTXO in Profit(%) is distinctly breaking away from its low point.

This suggests that accumulation whales, the major players in the crypto market, are likely to respond to market fear. This response is indicative of a potential V-shaped rebound, a positive sign for the market.

The analysis, written by Mignolet, points towards an optimistic outlook for the blockchain industry, as it shows that even in a consolidation phase, there is potential for significant profit and growth. This is a clear indication that the market is resilient and has the potential to bounce back from lows, reinforcing the optimistic view of the market.

In the latest Bitcoin supply data, it is observed that 81.16% of the supply is currently in profit, while 18.84% is in loss. The market appears to be following a typical retracement pattern, with a potential for the profit percentage to drop to the 70-76 range if the price dips further.

Historically, the highest profit percentages in bull markets are recorded when the profit rate falls within this 70-76% range. However, this remains a speculative possibility.

In conclusion, the majority of Bitcoin investors are still in profit, a positive sign that the bull market is still in progress. This analysis serves as a testament to the optimistic outlook of the blockchain industry.

In the realm of cryptocurrency project analysis, the Realized Price-UTXO Age Bands metric is crucial for understanding the behavior of short-term holders, typically speculators. Historically, this metric has served as a reliable indicator of market support and resistance.

Currently, Bitcoin's price has dipped below this metric. When factoring in the static technical support level around $60,000, it suggests that Bitcoin may undergo further correction. Notably, the 3-month to 6-month band is approaching this technical support level, potentially reinforcing its strength, a pattern reminiscent of September's market behavior.

Despite the correction, the market outlook remains optimistic. However, if bearish momentum continues, the next significant support level is expected to be around $50,000. This analysis underscores the importance of on-chain data in predicting market trends and guiding investment decisions.

As of June 24, 2024, Bitcoin (#BTC) is valued at $62.4K, slightly below the STH Realized Price of $62.7K. This indicates that most short-term holders (STH) who've held BTC for less than 155 days purchased at a higher price, suggesting potential selling pressure.

STHs from the past week to 1 month paid an average of $68.7K, potentially leading to selling pressure as they may seek to cut losses. Similarly, those from the 1-3 month period bought at $66.3K, presenting comparable risks. However, STHs from 3-6 months ago are better positioned, having bought at an average of $57.8K, which might encourage them to hold.

In contrast, long-term holders are in a strong position, with a 365-day SMA at $45.3K and an overall Realized Price of $30.6K, indicating solid support.

In conclusion, while there is a risk of short-term selling, long-term holders could limit significant downturns. If the price drops further, short-term holders may cease selling and hold, a pattern observed each time they are underwater. The Short-Term Holders Realized Price is a strong support in a bull market, and as long as prices hover around this level, there's no cause for alarm. The market is being closely monitored with a calm and optimistic outlook.

In recent developments, TON's open interest has surpassed $240 million after reaching a peak of $8 USD. Currently, Bybit holds 53% of the total open interest, with Binance's share gradually increasing since TON's launch on Binance Futures. This followed Bybit and Okex's market entries.

However, it is important to note the weakening trend in the monthly open interest delta, possibly due to the closure of leveraged positions by whales and the majority of traders. Historically, TON's price has seen sharp declines when the short-term to monthly open interest delta enters negative territory.

This indicator suggests a decrease in risk appetite or a correction in the derivative market, directly influenced by whales and affluent traders, thereby impacting the cryptocurrency's price. Therefore, continuous monitoring of these metrics is crucial to understand public interest and sentiment towards TON, providing valuable insights for investment strategies and market decisions.

In a recent analysis of the Bitcoin market, a shift in holding patterns has been observed. Long-term holders (LTH) who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days are selling, while short-term holders (STH) continue to accumulate.

As of January 1, 2024, LTH wallets held 15.8 million Bitcoin, compared to STH wallets which held only 3.7 million Bitcoin. However, the current figures show a decrease in LTH wallets to 14.4 million Bitcoin and an increase in STH wallets to 5.2 million Bitcoin.

Such shifts are typical in early bull markets. For instance, during the 2017 bull run, STH wallets held as much as 8.1 million Bitcoin, while in the 2021 bull run, the figure was slightly lower at 6.9 million.

However, caution is advised when the amount of Bitcoin in STH wallets rises to 6.5 million and above, as historical data suggests potential market volatility at these levels. This analysis provides valuable insights for both long-term and short-term investors in the blockchain industry.

In the realm of blockchain and crypto analysis, delta values have emerged as key indicators of high retail trader activity. These values reflect market sentiment, signaling bullish or bearish trends based on whether long or short positions dominate.

Interestingly, delta values also provide insights into actual liquidations that occur at specific price levels. This is crucial in understanding market dynamics and predicting future price movements.

For instance, it has been observed that retail traders often buy near short-term resistance or get stop-loss hunted at high prices before the BTC price moves lower. This pattern indicates the potential for strategic trading and investment decisions.

This analysis, penned by Amr Taha, underscores the importance of understanding on-chain data and market analysis in the ever-evolving blockchain industry. The future looks promising for those who can effectively interpret these signals.

In a significant development, a substantial amount of Link, a prominent cryptocurrency, has been transferred to exchanges today. This move comes after the potential formation of a local bottom, indicating these tokens will likely be sold soon. Historical data shows that sales typically occur as the price rises post such transfers.

Analyzing the data, we find that 11.8 million Link, valued at $160 million at the current price, has been transferred. This substantial movement of funds is likely to result in increased market volatility.

While this scenario presents an opportunity for some to profit from Link, it also carries the risk of losses for others. As always, market participants should remain prepared for potential price fluctuations. This development underscores the dynamic nature of the blockchain and cryptocurrency markets, which continue to offer exciting opportunities for those with a keen eye on market trends.

In the realm of cryptocurrency, the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) plays a crucial role in predicting market trends. The IFP measures Bitcoin flows in spot and derivative exchanges, providing valuable insights. A rising IFP, indicating more Bitcoin flowing into derivative exchanges, is generally a sign of a bullish period. Conversely, a falling IFP, where Bitcoin is flowing out of derivative exchanges, is usually a bearish indicator.

Historically, the IFP has proven to be a reliable predictor. For instance, in June 2016, the IFP stayed below its 90-day average for about 55 days, signaling a bear period. Once it crossed above this average, a significant bull run occurred.

Recently, we observed a similar pattern. The IFP priced below its 90-day average from December 14, 2023, to February 24, 2024. During this period, Bitcoin price corrected from 46K to as low as 39K. However, Bitcoin subsequently reached a new all-time high, suggesting a bear trap.

Currently, the IFP stands at 668.7K, slightly below its 90-day moving average of 675.5K. If the IFP rises above this average again, it could signal the return of a bullish period. Therefore, despite the current bearish trend, there is reason for optimism in the Bitcoin market.

In a recent analysis, SignalQuant has observed a consistent pattern over the past six years where the BTC price has seen a sharp rebound following the bottoming out of the number of active addresses (7D MA). This pattern has been witnessed in both bearish and bullish market conditions.

Currently, the trend of active addresses appears to be nearing its bottom. If this pattern holds true, we can expect a significant rebound in the BTC price in the near future. This analysis provides an optimistic outlook for the market, reinforcing the potential resilience and growth of the blockchain industry.

In a recent analysis of Bitcoin miner reserves and their transaction patterns, it has been observed that despite reserves reaching a two-week high, miners are not significantly offloading their Bitcoin holdings onto exchanges. This behavior suggests an accumulation strategy in response to the recent dip in Bitcoin prices.

This trend could potentially indicate a future selling pressure from miners during an upward trend in Bitcoin prices, suggesting that the market volatility may persist for some time. Despite the challenging times for miners, the overall market sentiment remains optimistic.

This analysis underscores the importance of monitoring on-chain data and market trends to understand the potential future movements in the cryptocurrency market. Written by theKriptolik.