In March 2024, Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) reached an overheating point of 2.8 during its recovery phase, indicating a potential price or temporal adjustment. Currently, the MVRV has decreased to around 1.99, with the MV being less than twice the RV. This is approaching the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands and the 4-year moving average based on Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, which are at 1.89 and 1.82 respectively.

Historically, during peaks of overheating in recovery phases, the market typically adjusted to these regions. The MV would decrease, or the RV would increase, showing signs of resolving the MVRV overheating. These signs were usually observed just before the start of a parabolic rise, likely due to profit-taking by smart money and the influx of new funds driven by news and SNS mentions.

The continued balance of these factors resolved the MVRV overheating, which generally indicated a local bottom. It is crucial to monitor if this will be the case this time as well.