Fragility is being hurt by volatility, resilience is not being hurt by volatility, and antifragility is gaining from volatility.
I recently re-read Taleb's antifragility. If you put "hoarding coins" in what the book says, it is completely consistent. "Contracts" are fragile and cannot withstand volatility, while "hoarding coins" is antifragile, allowing you to pick up lower chips every time during large fluctuations.
Interestingly, KOLs are also antifragile. The more people who criticize him, the more popular he becomes.
The antifragility of the system depends on the fragility of individuals. In this wave of big drops, the most people bet on ETH's rise because of ETFs. At the same time, this wave of people is also the most fragile (double leverage is liquidated), which also led to the most severe drop in ETH in this wave.
The highest level of anti-fragility is to have anti-fragility. You can understand it as spot selection of coins and hoarding, contracts are to control positions, and the difficulty of copycat is hell-level. Most people who enter this circle only see cases of getting rich by playing memes, but not playing memes and inscriptions. The probability of loss is 80%+. The only people who make money are probably the project parties that issue coins, or the group leaders of CX groups. Similarly, the leeks who play memes are also the most vulnerable.
Many people know the legendary trader hedeng in the currency circle. His philosophy is to always stand on the opposite side of fragility, which also means anti-fragility (position management).
There is no theme, just casually share my recent experience.

I have a very strong feeling tonight that Bitcoin is going to rise sharply, from tonight to tomorrow morning, anyway, the feeling is very strong.
You'd better not treat me as a counter-indicator. If you treat me as a counter-indicator and short, you will feel miserable.

Let's talk about a simple arbitrage strategy. Recently, Binance's EOS has an annualized return of 29.9% over 120 days, and the average contract funding fee has been around 0.02% every eight hours, which is approximately an annualized 20%. If you invest 60% of your funds to buy EOS and put it in a fixed term, while using 40% of the funds with a slight leverage to short an equivalent amount of EOS, you can benefit from both the contract funding fee and the EOS fixed term yield, while maintaining a neutral position in USDT (no loss regardless of EOS price fluctuations).

Do you think that's all? You can convert the funds on the contract side to BFUSD as margin and still earn an annualized return of over 30% on BFUSD.

All of the above is essentially free, and I can't even calculate the final annualized return; anyway, it's easy to do with just a little effort.

If staking is opened, BlackRock will be thrilled, and the interest in a year is unknown 💰, and they use clients' money to earn interest for themselves. Once staking is opened, all ETF sales will strongly promote Ethereum, and the Ethereum ETF can be completely free…
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According to the latest official update from BlackRock, the holdings of its Ethereum exchange-traded fund iShares Ethereum Trust ETF have reached 610,430.2143 ETH, with a market value exceeding 2 billion USD, currently reaching 2,008,583,994.21 USD.

Additionally, I want to explain why I am not optimistic about Sol and have been criticizing it. I have a vague feeling that Sol has a slight resemblance to Luna, in that it seems like a scheme orchestrated by Wall Street elites or large financial institutions, with the entire internal ecosystem relying completely on a Ponzi scheme. It can be said to be 100% dependent on a Ponzi scheme; most people in the meme ecosystem have also experienced this, with 95% losing money. It may not necessarily crash to zero like Luna, but I just feel it is very hollow.

However, even if Sol develops well, I am not worried because I will not short it, and at the same time, I hold BTC and ETH, so I won't underperform too much.

I will tell you why I don't touch altcoins, because I can't handle the emotional toll if they fall. No one knows what the market will be like afterward, due to black swan events, bear markets in crypto, and altcoins retracing more than 60%. The altcoins you mention, memes, or L2 tokens that have significant pullbacks, I can't handle that, I can't hold onto them. However, I can withstand Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin, so I would rather not touch altcoins.

Just now at 10:30 PM Beijing time, DJT (Trump Media Group) opened up 15% with a gap up, Bitcoin surged violently by $1500. In fact, Polymarket started showing an increasing probability of Trump's victory in the afternoon. This world is just a large insider trading scheme, folks, enjoy the next four years!

There are two possible reasons for yesterday's surge:
1. Yesterday, there was a piece of news that broke out in the domestic and foreign wealthy circles. This news did not attract the attention of people in the currency circle. It was that China might be preparing to impose global taxes on overseas wealthy people [Figure 1]. The reason why these wealthy people go overseas is to "make money at home and spend it abroad, and not bring a penny home." It is even more uncomfortable for them to transfer their hard-earned money overseas and then pay taxes than to lose money on investment. So what kind of anonymous and decentralized means will these wealthy people use to avoid taxes on their assets?

2. Harris also expressed his clear support for cryptocurrency yesterday. It is basically understandable that no matter who wins the November election, it will be beneficial to Bitcoin. Of course, Trump will be more favorable. After all, he has stated that he wants to use Bitcoin as a US currency reserve asset.

3. Through several waves of manipulation by Ton and Sui, the project team of the currency circle has created a new Ponzi scheme, which is to first pull the market at a low level, and then sell it to institutions at a 60% discount (institutions gradually unlock it in N years), and then use the money given by the institutions to pull the market, and then sell it to institutions at a 60% discount at a high price OTC, and then continue to use the raised funds to pull the market OTC. If it rises, there will be an ecosystem, and if it falls, there will be no ecosystem. Who loses in this way? It’s really hard to say. Institutions will go to the contract for hedging after buying at a 60% discount, which is equivalent to arbitrage. If retail investors chase it, it depends on how to grasp the exit time. Before the large amount of institutional unlocking, and whether there is a bull market environment, it is still possible to make money. In the end, ignorant leeks and naive people who have illusions about the so-called ecology will take over. Sui, who has experienced 21 years, knows that it will eventually return to calm. Short-term operations must grasp the exit time and follow up on the unlocking of institutions in a timely manner.

It seems that there is a very important news that everyone has overlooked. The SEC recently approved the listing and trading of Bitcoin ETF options. I tried to interpret it and referred to the views of some overseas financial big Vs. I think it is very worthy of attention.

1. **"Fractional custody" of nominal value**: Due to the limited supply of Bitcoin spot market, the launch of Bitcoin ETF options will make the nominal value of Bitcoin "fractional custody" through synthetic means for the first time, making it possible to break through the existing market limitations.

2. **Leverage utility and portfolio management**: Bitcoin ETF options allow investors to use leverage for long-term portfolio management, which is not available in the existing market. This new leveraged trading tool brings more investment strategies to investors, such as using long-term call options to hedge risks or perform asset allocation.

3. **Volatility structure and negative gamma effect**: Bitcoin's unique volatility structure (i.e., volatility skew) will become more obvious as the synthetic market expands. The negative gamma effect of the options market will cause the market to be forced to buy more Bitcoin options once the price rises, thereby driving the price further up. This phenomenon is called "negative gamma squeeze", which drives the market like a refueling rocket.

4. **Uniqueness of Bitcoin**: Unlike traditional stocks or commodities, Bitcoin cannot be diluted by issuing more, which means that its scarcity will be fully utilized. The introduction of the ETF options market will not change this feature, but will provide more leverage and price discovery functions for Bitcoin.

5. **Regulated and limited supply market**: This change makes Bitcoin the first asset with truly limited supply in a regulated synthetic market, which will attract more institutions and qualified investors to enter the market. Future market uncertainty and volatility may be further increased due to the impact of the ETF options market.

Ethereum is in the pain period of Grayscale's historical market crash after the ETF was listed. This pain period will be consumed in about two weeks at the current Grayscale market crash speed, and most of this negative news has been priced in. I am still firmly optimistic about Ethereum. There is a fundamental difference between coins in the cryptocurrency circle with and without ETFs.

The future bull market in the cryptocurrency circle may only target coins that have been listed on ETFs.

In one sentence, I can summarize my understanding of ListaDAO: MakerDAO on BSC, pledging BNB to mint lisUSD.

ListaDAO has started the third season of earning points. This is how I understand it. For any project that has been listed on Binance or is sure to be listed on Binance, points are money. For example, ENA actually earns points later with a high APY.

ListaDAO's current airdrop method is shown in Figure 1

To summarize briefly, it is divided into several categories:
If you hold BNB
1. Those with BNB can stake to exchange for slisBNB
2. Go to the lending pool to provide slisBNB as collateral and borrow lisUSD
3. Put lisUSD in earn for free income
The above three steps all have points, and the income from earning is higher than the interest on borrowing lisUSD, which is pure free income. Of course, I don't think many people have BNB on the chain, because they are all free in Megadrop. . .

If you hold ETH
1. Go to the lending pool and provide ETH as collateral to borrow lisUSD
2. Put lisUSD in earn to earn for free
Both steps above earn points. Similarly, the income from earn is higher than the interest on borrowing lisUSD, which is pure free. Moreover, the restaking income of ETH is getting lower and lower, so you might as well try the projects that will be listed on BN soon.

For other liquidity providers, just scroll down this link. The displayed pools can provide liquidity to mine points: https://lista.org/cdp/earn

Judging from several technical indicators, the market should rebound in the next few days. At the same time, you can consider shorting sol to hedge long positions, because the sol daily line has formed a death cross.

BNB performs well

I think yesterday's washout should be the last one of this wave of consolidation. Those who finally got off the train with CPI yesterday, will you still have a chance to get on the train?

Chase or not, that is the question. All greatness comes from a brave beginning.

Families, let’s buy some Ethereum. Isn’t it great that pendle can also earn 50% of the currency-standard annual rate?

Don’t think that Ethereum is still more than 1,000 dollars away from a new high and will rise by 30%. It seems to be still far away. If it really breaks a new high, Gamma will accelerate, just like Bitcoin’s speed of 55,000 to 69,000, and there will be no stop loss for short sellers. Chance.

Recently, from the perspective of the ecological environment (restaking in April and May), options data, and the speed of this rebound, everyone should pay attention to Ethereum.

Funding fees have all dropped. This sharp decline has indeed reduced leverage. It is obvious that many high-leverage gamblers were liquidated yesterday.

I used to think that Bitcoin worth 100,000 dollars was a joke, but now I think it might only be a matter of half a month. . .

Why do most people think gold at US$70 per gram is cheap and Bitcoin at US$70,000 per gram is expensive?

If I tell you that the market value of gold is ten times that of Bitcoin, do you still think gold is cheap?

You can also buy 0.001 Bitcoin for $70. In the final analysis, it is still a matter of perception.