Let the data speak: if the rise is not in volume, beware of false breakthroughs, pay attention to the short-term decline, and the trend will depend on tomorrow.
At 2:30 a.m., after counting today's market data and comparing it with yesterday, Monday, we can basically draw two conclusions. First, the cottage industry has begun to rise in a low-key manner. Second, the market has not risen in volume, and there is still a risk of decline in the short term.
Through the changes in market value and market share, it can be seen that Bitcoin and cottage industry have increased in volume and increased in proportion, while Ethereum and stablecoins have decreased in proportion. Many people think that cottage industry has not moved today, but this is not true. It can be seen from the data that cottage industry has moved, but because cottage industry is too scattered, many people do not pay attention to it. The increase in the proportion of cottage industry also proves that the market risk sentiment is gradually slowing down and improving.
With the rise of Bitcoin, there is no obvious increase in trading volume compared with yesterday. The data is the same, or even slightly lower than yesterday. It proves that under the stimulation of today's data, the rise is weak. The rise of low liquidity is often accompanied by a "technical" rise, which is full of the risk of short-term decline. Of course, the risk mentioned here is for contract users. In fact, for many spot or trend traders, this fluctuation is basically negligible.
There is no change in the stablecoin funds on the exchange, but the over-the-counter funds USDT inflow is 154 million, and the USDC market value decreases by 61 million. It can be seen from the Asian and European funds that the bullish sentiment is obvious, but the trading volume is still decreasing. Although the funds are optimistic about the future market, the sentiment is still not good enough. And the data chart shows that USDT has a large market value increase and then falls back during the day, which is basically the result of rapid buying transactions after the inflow of funds.
On the other hand, the funds in the US area have a small market value decrease, or outflow, or participate in transactions, but the overall fluctuation is small, and the sentiment is not obvious. The data chart shows that the inflow of funds is not obvious, the trading volume is decreasing, and the overall sentiment is low. However, the ETF in the US area still maintains a net inflow state. At present, most of the traders in the US area are newcomers who buy through ETFs, while the previous crypto "old people" are relatively light.
Based on the economic data from last week and this week, it is currently expected that market sentiment this week will not be too bad or may even turn positive (although I don’t quite believe that the Fed will talk about a rate cut anytime soon). However, unless there is a small probability of a reversal this week, the overall sentiment is positive. Short-term small data will stimulate the market to rise, but it still depends on data to stimulate trading volume and liquidity. Of course, if the unemployment rate and major non-farm data on Friday reverse expectations, then we can really say: the Federal Reserve is playing with expectations.
