The latest rate hike next week is expected to end the tightening cycle. The interest rate meeting next Thursday is expected to be the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The probability of no rate hike is 0, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 99.6%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike is 0.4%. After next week, we will officially enter the transition stage from tightening to easing. If there is no black swan, it means the end of the bear market and prepare for the bull market in the next rate cut cycle.
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South Korea's Financial Services Commission has begun the second phase of legislative work, which will include regulations related to the issuance of virtual assets and a regulatory regime for types of virtual assets. A stablecoin regulatory regime is being developed, and work on establishing a virtual asset disclosure system has begun to be reviewed. The EU-US Financial Regulatory Forum joint statement said that European regulators have updated their work on regulatory and technical implementation behaviors under the Digital Operational Resilience Regulation, including updates on crypto assets. The exchanges also involved developments related to the potential adoption of central bank digital currencies. Participants also had preliminary exchanges on the use of artificial intelligence in financial services. Indonesia's national cryptocurrency exchange, which opened on July 20, will be the only platform in the country that allows the legal exchange of digital assets. CryptoQuant's on-chain analyst report shows that the US government has sold 8,200 BTC on July 12, and the US government still holds 195,307 BTC.
Blockchain game developer Heynext has completed $30 million in financing, with AirAsia participating in the investment. Web3 operating protocol dappOS has completed seed round financing, led by IDG Capital and Sequoia China. Crypto e-commerce Bazaars has completed $15 million in financing. CoinDesk reached a sale transaction with an investor group for nearly $125 million. Grayscale GBTC's negative premium rate narrowed to 27.07%. Bn France's financial report: It is expected to be profitable in the 2023 accounts, and from November 2021 to December 31, 2022, it will hold about 1 billion euros in crypto assets on behalf of users. This year's cryptocurrency stock gains have exceeded most major cryptocurrencies, with CORZ up 1140%, CFIR up 600%, REN up 466%, WULF up 384%, COIN up 213%, and BTC up 80% in 2023.
The Republican Party in the U.S. House of Representatives introduced the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, protect consumers, promote innovation, and position the United States as a leader in the financial and technological fields. Coinbase's chief legal officer said: This legislation will eventually allow the United States to participate in the global dialogue on digital asset regulation, and Congress should immediately pass and enact the bill. Ed Tilly, CEO of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, said: We are providing more information to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to gain clarity for the BTC spot ETF, and hope that the SEC can get all the information it needs to prove that it has an adequate regulatory approach for all participants. Christopher King, CEO of Eaglebrook Advisors, said: Support the approval of the spot BTC ETF in the United States, and believe that the product may be approved by the end of 2024 or early 2025, which will "push the demand for crypto SMAs into superdrive."
The latest interest rate meeting in 5 days is expected to be the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The probability of no rate hike is 0, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 99.6%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike is 0.4%. After next week, we will officially enter the transition stage from tightening to easing. If there is no black swan, it means the end of the bear market and prepare for the next bull market in the rate cut cycle. (Old leeks always have a black swan expectation/shadow in their hearts) Currently, the Nasdaq is 15% away from its historical high, the S&P 500 is 6% away from its historical high, and the Dow Jones Index is only 4.7% away from its historical high. The Dow has risen for 9 consecutive days, and the Nasdaq has risen nearly 40% from the bottom. The three major stock indexes are expected to regain their historical highs before the rate cut and enter a new cycle. The big cake is still far from its historical high, and it has doubled from the bottom. Although the big cake has been slow recently, its previous performance is the "best" among mainstream assets, and it will be compensated in the future.
Regarding the interest rate meeting next week, former Fed head Ben Bernanke said: Next week's rate hike may be the last in this round of tightening actions. Inflation is expected to fall to 3-3.5% in the next six months and close to 3% at the beginning of next year. Any recession is likely to be mild, with a very mild rise in unemployment and a slight slowdown in the economy. Bank of America Global Research Report shows that investors' pursuit of safety may be peaking. Money market funds and other funds have a net cash outflow of $10 billion in two weeks, while technology funds have seen "strong capital inflows" in the past eight weeks. The US stock technology boom is still continuing. The end of the Fed's rate hike cycle may be imminent. The Bank of America Bull and Bear Index rose from 3.5 to 3.8, the most bullish level so far this year. JPMorgan Chase believes that the average gold price in the second half of 2023 will be $2012 per ounce (currently $1964). The rate hike is over and the rate cut is coming. The Fed's capital reservoir is connecting to the US stock market's capital reservoir. The big cake is still waiting and ready to go. The traditional law formed by tightening and easing is difficult to change. Just wait and see.
Many people think that they can just build a position in a bear market and sell it in a bull market. It may take one day to build a position and one day to sell it, so it takes "two days" to perfectly cross the bull and bear markets. But the process during this period is difficult for many people to bear, just like now, which has led to several rounds of bull and bear markets, but few people have succeeded. Develop good self-discipline and go to the traditional bull market of interest rate cuts. The old man will stop updating on Saturdays and Sundays recently, and try to spend some time to adjust his work and rest routine, and advance the update time to 21-22 o'clock. It will affect health if it is too late. #BinanceTournament #BTC