The total U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, a new high, and it took only three months to increase by $1 trillion. Morgan Stanley expects that the strength of the U.S. dollar will peak before the end of the year, and will then enter a bear market pattern and slowly decline in 2025. The U.S. dollar and so-called risk assets tend to have an inverse relationship. On Monday, the Dow Jones stock index futures hit a record high and are currently up 0.6%, and the bull market has resumed.
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According to the latest report released by the Federal Budget Accountability Committee, an independent research organization in the United States, the total U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion this week, reaching a record high. It took just over three months from the end of July this year, when the total U.S. national debt reached $35 trillion, to now rise to $36 trillion. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said: Judging from the current situation of the European economy, interest rates must be cut again in December. The ECB has cut interest rates three times and is expected to cut interest rates again next month. The PMI data released last Friday showed that the eurozone private sector economy unexpectedly contracted, and the market bet that the bank may further cut interest rates by 50 basis points. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk's net worth has increased by 52% since the beginning of this year. As of November 22, his total assets reached $347.8 billion, a record high. According to Polymarket's BTC price forecast for this month, the probability of BTC reaching $110,000 this month is 12%, and the probability of reaching $105,000 is 32%. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that BTC may reach $100,000 by the end of this year and $250,000 by the end of 2025. He advises people who are experiencing a bull market for the first time to remain rational and cash out in time. If you always hold the emotion of "I can make more money", you will eventually lose the wealth you already have! Rick Wurster, president of Charles Schwab Corp., said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio: Once U.S. regulations allow, the company will consider offering spot cryptocurrency trading. When the U.S. regulatory environment changes, the company will enter the spot cryptocurrency field. It is expected to change and is preparing for this possibility.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated: SEC Chief Gary Gensler will leave on January 20. Fox News reported that former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chief Chris Giancarlo is expected to take over as SEC chief. Chris Giancarlo is one of the founders of the Digital Dollar and has emphasized the importance of these emerging technologies and financial instruments for the future. The Nasdaq index rose by 0.3%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.7%, and the Dow Jones index rose by 1.4%.
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced: SEC Chief Gary Gensler will leave on January 20. Fox News reported that former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chief Chris Giancarlo is expected to take over as SEC chief. Chris Giancarlo is one of the founders of the Digital Dollar and has deep insights into the development of Web3 and digital currencies, having participated in various discussions regarding cryptocurrencies, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and stablecoins, emphasizing the importance of these emerging technologies and financial instruments for the future. Media reports suggest that the Trump team is discussing with the digital asset industry the establishment of a new position in the White House specifically responsible for cryptocurrency policy, with the Trump team reviewing candidates for this role. Discussions regarding this position include leading a small team and acting as a liaison between Congress, the White House, and various agencies with jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies, including the SEC and the CFTC. FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that negotiations between SEC staff and issuers wishing to launch SOL spot ETFs 'have made progress', with the SEC currently processing the S-1 application for the SOL spot ETF. It is highly likely that in the coming days, exchange representatives will submit some 19b-4 documents, which is the next step in the ETF approval process. ETF issuers indicated that the Solana ETF may be approved sometime in 2025.

Bitcoin hits new high. NVIDIA will announce its third quarter financial report after the US stock market closes on Wednesday. As the largest publicly traded company by market capitalization in the world, its impact on the US stock market may surpass that of US employment data, inflation data, and even Federal Reserve meetings.
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Trump plans to meet with former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan of Apollo Global Management on Wednesday regarding the Treasury Secretary candidate. Coindesk reports that Trump's transition team is considering listing Teresa Goody Guillen, a partner at the law firm BakerHostetler and head of blockchain business, as one of the candidates for the next director of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) has launched the second phase of the Drex Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot, focusing on building trade financing solutions using oracle and blockchain technology, with collaboration involving Microsoft, Chainlink, and Banco Inter. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated that options trading for Bitwise's BTC spot ETF BITB will begin tomorrow. Grayscale officially stated that options trading for its GBTC and mini BTC spot ETFs will begin tomorrow. CoinDesk reports that the listed mining company MARA Holdings (MARA) has increased its previously announced convertible preferred stock issuance from $700 million to $850 million, part of which will be used for BTC acquisitions, asset expansion, and general corporate purposes. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that ETH/BTC NUPL has reached a four-year low. Although ETH has underperformed compared to BTC, ETH holders are incurring losses without realizing it, similar to the lows seen in early 2020.

Bitcoin hits a new high. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange shows that traders are betting that Nvidia's stock price will rise or fall by about 12% after the company announces its earnings on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates consecutively in December, January, and March, followed by quarterly rate cuts in June and September, with expectations that the Fed will stop tapering in the first quarter of 2025. Goldman Sachs' baseline macro outlook expects the S&P 500 index to rise to 6,500 points by the end of 2025.
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According to a report by the UK (Financial Times): Trump's social media company is in deep negotiations to acquire the cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt, which is owned by the Intercontinental Exchange. The company is working to expand its business beyond online dialogue and is nearing a full-stock acquisition of Bakkt, although the valuation being discussed is currently unclear. US stock BKKT rose by 162% on November 18, triggering multiple trading halts, while Trump's Media Technology Group (DJT.O) rose over 14%. FOX reporter Charles Gasparino stated that while searching for a candidate for Treasury Secretary, Trump's team consulted with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one senior executive. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing of multiple BTC ETF options products by Cboe Exchange and NYSE American. The US Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced that it is preparing to launch spot BTC ETF options, getting ready for the clearing, settlement, and risk management of these options, which will follow the new options listing process outlined in the options listing procedure plan. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange shows that traders are betting that Nvidia's stock price will rise or fall by about 12% after the company announces its earnings on Wednesday. Google data shows that on November 18, the Google search volume for "Memecoin" surged to an all-time high. The prediction on Polymarket for "BTC's highest price this month" indicates a 12% probability of reaching $110,000, a 20% probability of reaching $105,000, and a 67% probability of reaching $95,000.

Historically, the fourth quarter is generally better. Asset management giant BlackRock continued to increase its holdings of the seven largest U.S. technology companies in the third quarter, reporting a market value of $4.76 trillion, compared to $4.42 trillion the previous time. Berkshire Hathaway's total holdings fell from $280 billion to $266 billion. Nvidia will announce its third-quarter results after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, and analysts expect the artificial intelligence chip leader to see a significant increase in revenue.
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JPMorgan analysts outlined six key regulatory and market changes in the crypto industry under the Trump administration, which may reshape the US cryptocurrency landscape under the Trump administration and its Congress. Several stalled cryptocurrency bills may be quickly approved, including the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21), which may provide much-needed regulatory clarity for the crypto industry by clarifying the regulatory responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The SEC's (Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121) (SAB 121) that restricts banks from holding digital assets may be repealed. Clearer regulation may increase venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, and initial public offerings in the cryptocurrency sector, and strategic BTC reserves may push up BTC prices, but the likelihood of its passage is low. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to push a bill when the new Congress takes office next year that requires the United States to purchase 1 million BTC, aiming to fill Trump's proposed strategic BTC inventory without increasing the government deficit, that is, selling some of the Fed's gold. At current market prices, the acquisition will cost about $90 billion, but if the bill is passed, the amount required for the acquisition may increase. Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, announced that it will issue ordinary bonds totaling 1.75 billion yen to purchase BTC. The company currently holds 1,018.17 BTC. Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, initiated a vote on the X platform, "Will BTC break through $100,000 on New Year's Eve?" Currently, 58,608 users voted, with an approval rate of 85.2%.

US data on Thursday showed that the US PPI annual rate in October was 2.4%, higher than the expected value of 2.3%, and the previous value was revised from 1.8% to 1.9%. The US PPI monthly rate in October was 0.2%, in line with expectations of 0.2%, and the previous value was revised from 0% to 0.1%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week was 217,000, lower than the expected value of 223,000 and lower than the previous value of 221,000. After the release of PPI (one of the inflation indicators, the producer price index) and initial jobless claims data, US stock indexes opened lower, with the Nasdaq falling 0.5%. The market is still betting on the Fed to cut interest rates, and it is expected that the probability of the Fed's third rate cut at the December meeting is 82% (75% the day before).

The inflation data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that the annual rate of CPI in October was 2.6%, in line with the expected value of 2.6% and higher than the previous value of 2.4%. The annual rate of core CPI in October was 3.3%, in line with the expected value of 3.3%, and the same as the previous value of 3.3%. All the data of the US CPI in October were in line with expectations. The US stock index opened higher, the Nasdaq index opened up 0.3%, and the S&P 500 index opened up 0.35%. BTC reached $93,000, setting a new record high. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has risen to 75%.
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Trump said: Elon Musk will work with Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), cut excessive regulation, cut wasteful spending, and reorganize federal agencies, which is essential to "saving America" ​​and will eliminate the huge waste and fraud in the $6.5 trillion government spending each year. The U.S. Digital Chamber of Commerce urged U.S. lawmakers to pass stablecoin legislation immediately. Cody Carbone, director of the Digital Chamber of Commerce, expects stablecoin legislation to be on Trump's desk in 2025. He hopes that the report will inspire lawmakers and points out that other countries are also seeking to strengthen the use of stablecoins. In the first nine months of this year, the Hong Kong police received a total of 3,468 investment fraud cases involving approximately HK$2.2 billion. Nearly 40% of the cases involved financial investment products and 35% involved virtual assets. The police reminded investors to be vigilant and avoid falling into scams. Villeroy de Villeroy, governor of the Bank of France, said that BTC is still a high-risk asset. On November 13, Musk responded again with the "Peanuts" emoticon when commenting on a post about useless spending by the U.S. government. Musk said that "America was saved by a squirrel and meme coins", and the squirrel refers to Peanut, the internet celebrity squirrel who was executed by relevant US agencies. MtGox address has recently sent BTC to the outside world 5 times, totaling 37897.965 BTC, worth about 2.62 billion US dollars. MARA Holdings announced its third quarter financial report: the company's BTC holdings increased to 26747 BTC.

Trump's election and the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut have settled two major risk events, leading to a significant rebound in financial markets. On November 11, the S&P 500 index closed above 6,000 points for the first time, with Tesla up 39% and a market value increase of over $300 billion since Trump's election.
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Bloomberg reported that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce a digital bond pilot program in her speech at Mansion House in the City of London this Thursday. The plan aims to utilize blockchain technology to 'tokenize' UK government debt over the next two years, enhancing bond trading efficiency and lowering costs. The plan may require parliamentary legislative support to proceed with blockchain-based bond sales. The Washington Post reported that Trump is preparing to adopt a more lenient stance on cryptocurrencies in the U.S.; he is seeking key candidates for positions friendly to the crypto industry, while his senior advisors are consulting crypto executives on potential changes to federal policy. Initial discussions are focused on a range of financial regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Arkham shows that the value of BTC holdings by Tesla, owned by Musk, has reached $1 billion. 8marketcap data indicates that BTC's market cap has risen to approximately $1.751 trillion, surpassing silver and the Vanguard total stock market ETF, ranking 8th in global asset market capitalization. ai_9684xtpa data shows that ETH has been in an inflationary state since mid-April, with about 350,000 ETH issued over six months. On November 12, a MtGox address sent 2,500 BTC worth approximately $222.26 million to address 1PQZ...EvAc. Google Trends data indicates that BTC reached a peak search interest of 100 on November 12, reflecting a growing interest in BTC searches. Analyst Eugene mentioned that since the market landscape changed, no comprehensive bull market force has concentrated in a specific area yet. Given the strong performance of mainstream assets, he believes it is only a matter of time before the entire AI sector is revalued.

The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% at its meeting last Friday, with a unanimous vote of 12-0, compared to 11-1 in September, marking the Fed's second consecutive rate cut. After the U.S. election, Bitcoin broke through $70,000; the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, and Bitcoin broke through $80,000, reaching $85,000 on Tuesday.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on whether to approve ETH spot ETF options for further analysis and to gather public opinions, particularly regarding whether the proposed rule changes meet the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act. The SEC emphasized concerns about the potential impact of the proposal on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors, and ensuring a fair trading system. The Wall Street Journal: If Trump tries to fire Fed Chair Powell, Powell is ready for a legal battle. The White House stated that at Biden's invitation, Trump will meet with Biden at the White House at 11 AM local time on the 13th. No further details have been released. Data from S3 Partners shows that from Election Day to last Friday's close, hedge funds holding short positions in Tesla have incurred paper losses of at least $5.2 billion. BTC recorded a 16.9% increase last week, with a maximum increase of 21.7%, marking the second-largest increase week after the approval of the U.S. BTC spot ETF. Zhu Su, founder of the bankrupt Three Arrows Capital, stated that the least known 'secret' is that the profits made from buying assets at new highs far exceed any other strategy, and it's not just a small amount. According to DefiLlama data, the market capitalization of stablecoins grew by 3.04% over the past week, reaching $178.115 billion. Lookonchain indicated that based on indicators such as the rainbow chart, Relative Strength Index (RSI), 200-week moving average heat map, cumulative value of destroyed coins days (CVDD), and 2-year MA multiplier, although BTC has reached a new all-time high, it has not yet reached peak bull market levels.

At 3:00 AM on Friday, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, with the market expecting a 25 basis point cut. Bank of America stated that the weakness in October's non-farm data is sufficient for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in both November and December. (October non-farm employment was 12,000, expected value was 113,000, previous value was 223,000.) Following the new highs of the three major U.S. stock indices on November 6, the indices continued to hit new highs during trading on the 7th.
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U.S. stocks achieved their best post-election performance in history, with the S&P 500 hovering around 5930 points, marking the 48th historical high this year; the Nasdaq 100 index rose 2.7%, marking its first record since July; the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.6%. Bernstein, a financial services company, stated that it expects increased clarity in crypto asset regulation following a Trump win, with the SEC and the Senate Banking Committee likely to become more friendly towards cryptocurrencies. New cryptocurrency rule-making systems are expected to emerge, and the impact of this shift has not yet been reflected in prices. Currently, it is anticipated that stablecoin and market structure legislation will progress more rapidly, which is positive. On November 6, BTC's market capitalization surpassed Meta to become the ninth-largest asset in the world by market cap. JPMorgan has renamed its blockchain and tokenization department Onyx to Kinexys, intensifying efforts in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). ETH/BTC rose to 0.038, an increase of 8.5%. VanEck executive Matthew Sigel stated that ETH is oversold, and U.S. speculative activity will return to the market, asserting that ETH will not be overlooked. Justin Sun expressed optimism about market prospects (including ETH) as U.S. macro crypto policies improve. IntoTheBlock reported an increase in the number of short-term investors holding BTC, a phenomenon typically seen in bull markets as new participants enter with rising prices. On November 7, Tether injected $1.845 billion in stablecoins into CEX on the ETH chain.

On November 6, Trump announced his victory in the 2024 election. Trump has secured at least 270 electoral votes and will return to the White House in January! The three major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 3%, the S&P 500 up 2.06%, and the Nasdaq up 2.05%; the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 4%, marking the largest increase since November 2023.
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On November 6, Trump announced his victory in the 2024 election. Trump has secured at least 270 electoral votes and will return to the White House in January! The three major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 3%, the S&P 500 up 2.06%, and the Nasdaq up 2.05%; the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 4%, marking the largest increase since November 2023. Before the election, analysts predicted that if Trump won, the price of BTC could rise to $80,000 or $90,000. Matrixport analysis indicated that as the election results become clearer, the market is expected to welcome a year-end rally in risk appetite. American traders have reason to increase their positions, and against the backdrop of BTC's upward momentum, the greed and fear index is also expected to rise further.

On November 5, voting for the U.S. election was underway, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising more than 1% during the trading session, with the Nasdaq index up 1.4% and gold prices up 0.2%. Typically, results are announced on election night local time, which would be around noon or afternoon Beijing time on November 6; alternatively, if counting in swing states is delayed, results may be announced days later; if the losing party contests the results, it may lead to recounts and legal lawsuits, with results potentially revealed weeks after election day.
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On November 5, the small town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire announced the voting results of 6 registered voters, with Harris and Trump tied at 3 votes each. At midnight Eastern Time on November 5, voters in Dixville Notch were the first to start voting, marking the official start of the 60th U.S. presidential election voting. A poll conducted by The Hill and Emerson College showed that on November 4, Harris and Trump had roughly equal support in key swing states for the U.S. election. Trump held an advantage in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, while Harris had the advantage in Michigan, with both candidates having equal support in Nevada and Wisconsin. On November 5, Trump maintained a lead in the probability of winning on two prediction platforms: Trump had a 58.9% winning chance on Polymarket, ahead of Harris's 41.1%; Trump had a 56% winning chance on Kalshi, ahead of Harris's 44%. On November 5, the MtGox address successively transferred out 32,371 BTC and 2,000 BTC. ARKF increased its holdings of Coinbase stock by $4.5 million on November 4. Coinshares' weekly report showed that last week, net inflows to digital asset investment products reached $2.2 billion, bringing the total inflows for the year to a record $29.2 billion. The publicly listed medical company Semler Scientific reported its third-quarter earnings, revealing that it currently holds 1,058 BTC, with a total cost of $71 million.

This week is eventful, with the U.S. election set to begin final voting on November 5, which is expected to significantly determine the election results. The election coincides with the Fed's monetary policy meeting (on Friday). On Monday, U.S. stock markets opened, with the Nasdaq rising 0.25% intraday, the S&P 500 slightly up by 0.15%, and the Dow Jones index down by 0.25%; gold rose by 0.15%.
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The Monetary Authority of Singapore has announced plans to promote the tokenization of financial services, which includes: forming a business network to deepen the liquidity of tokenized assets; establishing a market infrastructure ecosystem; nurturing an industry framework for the implementation of tokenized assets; enabling tokenized assets to utilize common settlement facilities. As of November 3, U.S. local time: In polls hosted by Yahoo News, ABC News/Ipsos, and Morning Consult regarding the U.S. elections, Harris is leading Trump. In polls by NBC News, Emerson, and the New York Post, the support rates for both are even; Trump only leads Harris in the TIPP-hosted poll. Polls released by data analysis firm AtlasIntel (from November 1 to 2) show that Trump is leading Harris in seven swing states, with a particularly notable advantage in Arizona and Nevada. (New York Post) Polls indicate that Trump and Harris both have a support rate of 49%. Musk's AI company xAI is discussing raising $5 billion at a valuation of about $45 billion with UAE investment firm MGX. Superscrypt, a blockchain venture capital firm supported by Temasek, plans to raise up to $100 million for its second investment fund. DefiLlama data shows that the total financing in the crypto market for October 2024 has increased by about 30% compared to September 2024, reaching $860 million. According to DefiLlama data, the total market capitalization of stablecoins grew by 0.38% in the past week, reaching $173.117 billion, close to the highest level since May 2022.

On Thursday, the U.S. released data showing:
The September PCE price index year-on-year was 2.1%, in line with the expected 2.1%, with the previous value revised from 2.2% to 2.3%; the September core PCE price index year-on-year was 2.7%, higher than the expected value of 2.6%, unchanged from the previous value of 2.7%; initial jobless claims for the week were 216,000, lower than the expected value of 230,000, with the previous value revised from 227,000 to 228,000. The core inflation indicator, the PCE price index, exceeded expectations, causing U.S. stock indices to open lower, with the Nasdaq index down 2.5% intraday, the S&P 500 index down 1.5%, the Dow Jones index down 0.5%, gold down 1.4%, and BTC down 3%.
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On Wednesday, US data showed that the GDP for the third quarter was 2.8%, below the expected 3% and lower than the previous value of 3%. The core PCE price index for the third quarter rose to 2.2%, above the expected 2.1% but lower than the previous value of 2.8%. In October, ADP employment numbers reported 233,000 jobs, higher than the expected 114,000, and the previous value was revised from 143,000 to 159,000. The increase in the core PCE price index of 2.2% for the third quarter roughly aligns with the Federal Reserve's target, potentially supporting monetary easing policies. The NASDAQ hit a new intraday high of 18,785 points, and gold prices reached a new high of $2,789 per ounce.
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Elon Musk's AI startup xAI is in talks with investors for a funding round that will yield a valuation of around $40 billion. A few months ago, xAI's last valuation was $24 billion, when it raised $6 billion in the spring. xAI hopes to raise several billion dollars in this new funding round. Musk stated plans to double the size of the AI startup xAI. Florida's Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis expressed hopes that agencies managing the state's retirement funds consider BTC, becoming the third state to invest retirement funds in BTC. In May, the Wisconsin Investment Board invested $164 million in Grayscale and BlackRock's spot BTC ETFs, where cryptocurrency assets accounted for about 0.1% of its total managed assets. In July, Michigan's retirement system also disclosed its investment in BTC, holding 110,000 shares of ARK21Shares ETF, which represents 0.003% of its managed assets. Analysts at financial services firm Presto stated that as Trump's lead over Harris expands on Polymarket, it increases the likelihood that crypto-related bills will pass in Congress. Among the 50-plus proposed crypto bills, six (including the crypto market structure bill FIT21 aimed at regulating the entire industry) have been passed by the House and are currently awaiting Senate approval. Cointelegraph reported that BTC reached $73,562; despite a significant recent price increase, Google searches for BTC remain a small fraction of last week's AI traffic.

The Nasdaq index reached 18,700 points, setting a new high; gold rose to $2,772 per ounce, also a new high. In the medium to long term, as several central banks around the world have initiated a rate-cutting cycle, the dollar is steadily flowing into stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin approaching historical highs. Morgan Stanley strategists stated: There is no reason to believe the Federal Reserve won't lower rates by 25 basis points in November unless the employment report deviates from expectations.
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According to CNBC, just days after the U.S. Department of Justice warned Elon Musk's committee that its $1 million lottery campaign might violate federal election laws, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner filed a lawsuit against Musk's Political Action Committee (PAC) to stop the $1 million lottery event for voters. The Information reported that Meta Platforms (META.O) is developing an AI search engine to reduce reliance on Google and Microsoft. Apple Intelligence officially launched on iPhone, iPad, and Mac. On October 29, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index reported a score of 72, remaining at the 'greed' level for two consecutive weeks. On October 29, the total cryptocurrency market cap rebounded to $2.507 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 2.2%. CoinShares reported that the inflow of dollars into digital assets last week reached $910 million, pushing the total inflow year-to-date to $27 billion, nearly three times the record high in 2021. ETH saw an outflow of $35 million last week. Options traders expect that regardless of who wins the election, BTC will reach $80,000 by the end of November, setting a new record high. ETH/BTC briefly fell below 0.036 this morning, hitting the lowest level since the bull market peak in 2021. ETH founder Vitalik Buterin responded to @0xgawswolf's inquiry about whether he is 'retarded' by saying: 'Yes.' Tyr Capital CIO Edouard Hindi stated that BTC prices may surge significantly before the U.S. election on November 5, but analysts warned that regardless of the winner, a sell-off may occur in the days following the election results, and profit-taking may put pressure on BTC prices in the days after the announcement.

This week is busy with economic data, including the US Q3 GDP (Wednesday), the Fed's favored inflation indicator PCE data (Thursday), October's non-farm payroll and unemployment rate (Friday), and Q3 earnings reports, which will determine the market direction at the beginning of November. Federal Reserve members are entering a 'quiet period' before the meeting. The Federal Reserve is the Federal Reserve for risk assets, US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin; Bitcoin serves as the Federal Reserve for Ethereum and other coins.
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The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is establishing a formal advisory group for all licensed virtual asset trading platforms, composed of representatives from each licensed institution, to ensure that the commission considers their views in policy formulation. The SFC expects this advisory group to be operational by early 2025. In the future, the SFC will publish a white paper on priority regulatory matters in the virtual asset industry, based on discussions from this group and feedback from other stakeholders. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) announced that it will launch a virtual asset index series on November 15, 2024, providing a reliable benchmark price for this rapidly emerging asset class, supporting Hong Kong in becoming Asia's leading digital asset center. This index series will provide transparent and reliable pricing for BTC and ETH in the Asian time zone, aiming to provide a unified reference price for virtual assets, addressing price discrepancies among global exchanges. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that Tether holds approximately $100 billion in US Treasury bonds, $5.58 billion in BTC, and $3.87 billion in gold. Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an increase of 156.78 BTC for 1.6 billion yen, currently holding a total of 1,018.17 BTC. According to OinGlass data, CEX saw a cumulative net outflow of 34,800 BTC in the past 7 days. Vitalik responded to community questions, "Why doesn't the ETH Foundation stake all its held ETH like the Nobel Prize Foundation does, only using income to cover costs? Why not consider market sentiment and everyone's voice, and insist on periodically selling ETH? You claim that ETH's POS is very safe; why not stake ETH yourself? Do you lack confidence in POS?" Vitalik responded that an internal reason is that they do not want to be forced to make an 'official choice' during a controversial hard fork and are considering providing some grants in a specific form.

Tesla's financial report shows that the third quarter Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged, the US stock market benchmark S&P 500 index opened up 0.2%, ending a three-day decline, and Tesla's stock price rose over 20%. On October 24, the Bank of Canada significantly lowered interest rates by 50 basis points, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated: further rate cuts are expected, with the specific timing and extent to be determined. The interest rate swap market anticipates about a 25% chance of another 50 basis point cut in December. The European Central Bank has begun discussions on whether interest rates need to be lowered below neutral levels, with Governor Villeroy stating: the ECB has not lagged behind the situation, but the risk of cutting rates too late is greater than the risk of cutting too early.

On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices continued to reflect the 16th anniversary of the release of the BTC white paper, with Gary Gensler speaking out as the SEC accelerates its regulation of the crypto market! The Nasdaq index fell over 2% during the day, the S&P 500 index declined by 1.3%, and the Dow Jones index also fell by 1.3%. Spot gold saw fluctuations, once breaking through the historical high of $2750/ounce during the day, but fell below $2720/ounce in the evening, with an intraday decline of 1.3%; the crypto market followed suit. Wells Fargo raised its end-of-2025 target range for the S&P 500 index to 6200-6400 (currently at 5787 points), from a previous forecast of 5900-6100.
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On Tuesday, U.S. stocks opened lower again, with the S&P 500 index down 0.2%, and Bitcoin following suit. The spot price of gold rose to $2744.07 per ounce, an increase of 0.8%, continuing to break historical highs. Nvidia's stock price rose to $144, with a market capitalization exceeding $3.5 trillion. Federal Reserve's Daly stated that there are no signs indicating that the Fed will stop cutting interest rates, with a reasonable estimate of the 'neutral' rate between 2.5% and 3.0% (current rate 4.75-5.0%).
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Federal Reserve's Schmied expressed his personal opinion that cryptocurrencies are a risk asset, a playground rather than a currency. Given the uncertainty about how low the Fed should ultimately lower rates, he tends to favor slowing the pace of rate cuts. In his first public speech since August, Schmied mentioned he hopes for a 'more normalized' policy cycle, where the Fed will 'moderately' adjust to maintain economic growth, price stability, and full employment, and slowing the rate cuts will also help the Fed find a so-called neutral level where monetary policy neither burdens nor stimulates the economy. The Indonesian Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Authority (Bappebti) announced an extension for cryptocurrency trading platforms to obtain Physical Crypto Assets Trading (PFAK) licenses, mandating compliance with the latest regulatory standards by the last week of November 2024. The new regulations provide additional time for crypto trading platforms and expand participation in the crypto market. Komainu, a crypto custody company jointly established by Nomura Securities, Ledger, and Coinshares, plans to acquire its competitor Propine Holdings Pte Ltd. in Singapore and is awaiting approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Ultrasoundmoney data shows that the net supply of ETH increased by 7663 ETH over the past 7 days, with the supply increasing by approximately 18332 ETH and 10668 ETH destroyed through a burn mechanism. Coinshares weekly data indicates that optimism surrounding the election drove digital asset inflows to $2.2 billion last week, the highest level since July, with inflows into the U.S. reaching $2.3 billion and small outflows in other regions, possibly due to profit-taking.