On Friday, the U.S. released data showing that the PCE price index in August was 2.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected value of 2.3% and lower than the previous value of 2.50%. The core PCE price index in August was 2.7% year-on-year, in line with the expected value of 2.70% and higher than the previous value of 2.60%. The final expected value of the one-year inflation rate in September was 2.7%, and the previous value was 2.7%. The latest inflation data showed that the U.S. core PCE price index in August recorded a monthly rate of 0.1%, the lowest since May, and the market expected it to be 0.2%; the monthly rate of personal spending in August was 0.2%, the lowest since April, and the market expected it to be 0.30%.
Inflation continues to decline, bets on large rate cuts have a slight upper hand, the dollar continues to fall, and dollar-denominated assets are entering an appreciation cycle. The PCE inflation data favored by the Fed continues to cool, which may promote further rate cuts for the rest of this year and next year, and bets on large rate cuts have a slight upper hand. Powell once said, "The upside risks to inflation have indeed declined, and the downside risks to employment have increased; Fed Governor Waller estimates that the core PCE annualized rate in the past four months will be below 1.8%, below the Fed's 2% target.

On Thursday, the US released data showing that the number of initial jobless claims for the week was 218,000, lower than the expected value of 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 219,000 to 222,000; the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the US was 3%, in line with the expected value of 3%, and the same as the previous value of 3.00%. On Thursday night, the members of the Federal Reserve "spoke as a group" and the market continued to price in the remaining interest rate cuts this year. Further dovish signals will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. The S&P 500 index continued to hit an intraday record high of 5767 points, and spot gold stood at $2,680 per ounce, continuing to hit a record high.

With a cumulative increase of 29% so far this year, spot gold stood at $2,660/ounce on September 25, continuing to hit a new high. For this Friday's PCE price index, economists expect that it may show that US inflation has fallen from 2.5% to 2.3%, hitting the lowest level since early 2021, and may reach the 2.0% target by January or February next year. S&P said that the US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2.7% this year to 1.8% next year, and the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. The upcoming easing period is more of a precautionary measure to prevent economic growth from being too low below potential.
Inflation of around 2.5-3% corresponds to the Fed’s interest rate of around 5%, which is obviously inappropriate. The latter will continue to move closer to the former (the so-called neutral interest rate). Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points in November is 60.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 39.7%.

On September 24, spot gold broke through $2,640/ounce, setting a new record high. Fed Chairman Goolsbee said that if the situation continues (weak employment, etc.), there will be a lot of interest rate cuts in the next 12 months. The current interest rate level is hundreds of basis points higher than the neutral interest rate. It is reasonable to start cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. To achieve a soft landing, we must keep up with the situation.
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Patrick McHenry, director of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, Senator Cynthia Lummis, and more than 40 other lawmakers wrote to Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), on September 23, saying that SAB-121 subverts the custody rules for cryptocurrencies, weakens consumer protection, and stifles financial innovation, calling on the SEC to repeal the crypto bill SAB-121. SAB-121 is a proposed rule that requires SEC reporting entities that custody cryptocurrencies to record these holdings as liabilities in their balance sheets. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit reviewed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision to dismiss Coinbase's petition for cryptocurrency regulatory rulemaking, questioning its reasons as too limited. In July 2022, Coinbase asked the SEC to propose and adopt regulatory rules for "securities offered and traded through digital native methods," including clarifying which crypto assets are securities. The SEC rejected the petition at the end of 2023, prompting Coinbase to apply to the Court of Appeals to force the SEC to respond. AI startup Anthropic proposed a $40 billion valuation in new financing. On July 17, Silicon Valley venture capital Menlo Ventures participated in Anthropic's financing of more than $750 million. According to CoinShares data, digital asset investment products saw net inflows for the second consecutive week, totaling $321 million. The Fed's stance was more dovish than expected, resulting in a 9% increase in asset management (AUM) and a total transaction volume of $9.5 billion for investment products.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50bp and 25bp in November is "tied", and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 25.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 50.0%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 24.4%. Due to the Fed's rate cuts, the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in bond yields, the US dollar index fell by about 0.4% last week, the S&P 500 hit its 39th record high since 2024, and the Nasdaq 100 recorded its best two-week gain since November.
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Australian regulators are preparing new legislation to require cryptocurrency exchanges to obtain financial services licenses. Regulators believe that the Corporations Act covers most major crypto assets such as BTC. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) is preparing to update Information Sheet 225 of the Corporations Act to more clearly explain how specific crypto tokens and certain products should be handled from a regulatory perspective. ASIC is concerned about potential consumer damage and market misconduct. The licensing system will help reduce risks, build consumer trust and protect market integrity. Bloomberg reported that Harris said: It will encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting consumers and investors. It is reported that this is the first time Harris has commented on cryptocurrencies. Coinbase Policy Director Faryar Shirzad said that Harris's crypto-friendly statement is important and constructive, showing the public that she believes that digital asset innovation is very important and is as important as artificial intelligence. They are thoughtful and open to cryptocurrencies. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and former Apple Design Director Jony Ive jointly designed AI hardware for individuals. Australia's Monochrome spot BTC ETF held 142 BTC as of September 19. According to data from The Block, the number of ETH destroyed soared from 80.27 ETH on September 1 to 1,360 ETH on September 21, an increase of 1,600% in three weeks. According to DefiLlama data, the total market value of stablecoins reached US$172.283 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.54%.

Affected by the Fed's shift to monetary easing, on September 20, the price of gold stood at 2,600 points, a new high. At the close of Thursday, the S&P 500 index stood at 5,700 points and the Dow Jones index stood at 42,000 points, both hitting record highs. The Nasdaq index rose 2.5%, about 3.6% from the new high. The big cake is about 15% away from the new high. Dudley, former head of the New York Fed, said that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 and 25 basis points in November and December, respectively. Wall Street is betting that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing, which has stimulated a rebound in riskier areas of the market. UBS's basic expectation is that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 points by the end of the year and rise to 6,200 points in June 2025. Standard Chartered Bank analysts predict that the currency market will continue to recover due to favorable macroeconomic conditions. BlackRock believes that the key significance of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points is that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates over the next two years.

On September 19, the Federal Reserve started a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. The Fed's dot plot shows that the median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is 4.4%, from 5.1% previously. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 fell to 3.5%, from 4.1% previously. Risk assets were boosted, and U.S. stocks maintained their gains on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 2.8% intraday and gold prices hitting a new high of $2,600 per ounce. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to implement a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting from November 2024 to June 2025.

At 2:00 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of its interest rate decision. At 2:30 a.m., Powell will hold a press conference. Currently, the market expects a 63% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 37% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Will the Federal Reserve change direction? At the opening of Wednesday, the Nasdaq and gold both traded sideways, awaiting the results of the interest rate meeting.
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BlackRock is preparing to launch an artificial intelligence investment fund of more than $30 billion in partnership with technology giant Microsoft to build data centers and energy projects to cope with the growing demand brought by artificial intelligence, which will become one of the largest investment tools ever on Wall Street. Fast-growing chipmaker Nvidia will provide advice on factory design and integration. Members of the U.S. House of Representatives said they want to know clearly how the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) views airdrop activities in the crypto industry. In a letter to SEC Director Gary Gensler on Tuesday, Patrick McHenry, head of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee and North Carolina Congressman, and Tom Emmer, Minnesota Congressman, the House Majority Whip, accused the SEC of "pressing its finger on the scale" and that by creating a hostile regulatory environment, including expressing opinions on airdrops in various cases and increasing warnings of further enforcement actions, the SEC is "pressing its finger on the scale and preventing American citizens from shaping the next version of the Internet." JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that JPMorgan Chase may be one of the main users of blockchain and a real user. Bloomberg reported that crypto venture capital firm DragonflyCapital is seeking to raise $500 million for its fourth fund and plans to complete the financing in the first quarter of next year. Cointelegraph reported that Google Cloud plans to expand its blockchain RPC service from ETH to more blockchains. The Financial Times reported that SIX Swiss Exchange, Switzerland's largest stock exchange, is exploring the establishment of a cryptocurrency trading platform in Europe to attract large traditional investors with increased interest in trading digital assets.

On Monday, the Nasdaq opened 0.8% lower, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.15%, the gold price rose to a new high of $2,589 an ounce, and the U.S. bond market bet more than 25 basis points on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 a.m. Thursday.
This Thursday, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, officially entering a rate cut cycle. The Federal Reserve's interest rate is gradually lowered, and the currency market bubble is gradually rising. The Federal Reserve's interest rate has dropped to a low point, and the currency market bubble has risen to a high point, completing this cycle. The interest rate has dropped from the current 5.5% to a neutral interest rate of around 2.5-3%. September is the turning point for the Federal Reserve from tightening to releasing money, and hopefully it will be a turning point for the currency market. #中秋节

This week, the overall inflation rate CPI fell to 2.5%, close to the Fed's 2% target. As bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week rose, the Nasdaq index opened up 0.6%. Spot gold continued to rise on the basis of a nearly 2% surge overnight, hitting $2,580 per ounce, setting a new record high. COMEX gold futures rose more than 1% during the day, standing above $2,600 per ounce. It is expected that the Fed will announce its first rate cut in four years after the meeting next week, and bets on a 50 basis point rate cut rose from 28% yesterday to 43%.
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Fox News reporter Eleanor Terrett: John Rose, a member of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, is proposing a new bill called the "BRIDGE Digital Assets Act" that will establish a joint digital asset advisory committee between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The purpose of the committee is to allow the industry to provide advice to the two agencies on rules, regulations and policies related to digital assets. The South China Morning Post reported that Hong Kong is considering allowing the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to participate in the regulation of over-the-counter (OTC) virtual asset trading services, and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has sought industry opinions on a potential new licensing system for cryptocurrency OTC services. A spokesman for the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission said on September 12 that in order to promote the sustainable and responsible development of Hong Kong's virtual asset industry, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is working closely with the government and other regulators to establish a sound, clear and consistent regulatory environment in Hong Kong. The Information reported that OpenAl's annual revenue may have increased by 150% to around US$4 billion since the end of 2023. At some point in 2025, it may reach US$8 billion. The Information reported that OpenAI is in talks with Abu Dhabi investment company MGX to raise $7 billion. El Salvador has increased production by 1 BTC per day in the past 665 days, and the former coin holdings have risen to 5,871 BTC. The Wall Street Journal published an article stating that in 2023, Tether's liquidity will be as much as that of the financial giant Visa card, with a full-year net profit of $6.2 billion, surpassing the asset management giant BlackRock (common shareholders' net profit of $5.5 billion), but Tether's number of employees (less than 100) is only a small fraction of BlackRock's, and Tether is disrupting the United States' global sanctions system. Santiment said that the supply of BTC and ETH mining company addresses has been declining since the first half of 2024, and with the recent mild rebound, their total supply will increase, which is a "signal" that the next bull market is coming.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut interest rates, with the interest rate resolution showing that the deposit facility rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.5%, and the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were both lowered by 60 basis points to 3.65% and 3.9%, respectively. Gold hit a record high of $2,550 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.5%.
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The European Banking Authority (EBA) expects that by the end of 2024, 15 technical standards will be officially released, including standards for stablecoin issuers. These standards are based on the technical requirements under the EU Crypto-Asset Markets Act (MiCA), covering authorization, stress testing, and methods for estimating the number and value of transactions. After the standards are finalized, they will be reviewed, translated and formally adopted by the European Parliament and the European Council, and will eventually be published in the Official Journal of the European Union. The British government has proposed a landmark move in Parliament, which aims to clarify the legal status of digital assets (including BTC and other cryptocurrencies and NFTs) and treat them as personal property under English and Welsh law. Once passed, the bill will create a third category of personal property, beyond the current classification of "possessions" and "walking animals", and provide it with clear legal recognition and protection. Heidi Alexander, director of justice, said that the law must keep up with evolving technology, and this legislation means that the industry can maintain its global leadership in the field of crypto assets and bring clarity to complex property cases. ARK Invest increased its holdings of Coinbase shares by $8.44 million on September 11. Australia's Monochrome spot BTC ETF held 136 BTC as of the 11th of the month. ETH co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded to netizens' suggestions to stop selling ETH, saying that the ETH sale yesterday was initiated by a biodefense organization funded by him, and the last time-weighted order has been triggered. Mining company Marathon Digital Holdings announced that its BTC holdings increased to 26,200 BTC.

On Wednesday, the U.S. released inflation data showing that the annual rate of CPI in August was 2.5%, lower than the expected value of 2.6% and lower than the previous value of 2.90%; the annual rate of core CPI in August was 3.2%, in line with the expected value of 3.20%, and the same as the previous value of 3.20%. The monthly rate of core CPI in August was 0.3%, higher than the expected value of 0.20% and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. After the release of inflation data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week increased from 71% to 85%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points decreased from 29% to 15%. The focus is that the core inflation CPI of 0.3% is higher than the expected value of 0.2%. Citi economists abandoned their forecast of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at next week's meeting, and expected a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 50 basis point cut in November and December respectively.

On Wednesday, the U.S. released the August CPI (expected value 2.6%), which is the "last piece of the puzzle" before the Fed's September interest rate meeting. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in the early morning of the 19th. Fed President Waller said that the "time has come" to start a series of interest rate cuts this month. The August (non-farm) employment report and other data continue to cool down. The series of data show that the Fed no longer needs to wait patiently, but needs to take action.
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Fox: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer listed the priorities for cross-party legislation in the remaining months of Congress. Cryptocurrency legislation was not included, and artificial intelligence was listed as one of the priorities. This is a marked departure from Schumer’s previous statements at a Crypto4Harris town hall meeting, where he had insisted that cryptocurrency legislation would be an urgent priority. The Consumer Finance Institute (CFI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported data that even after the bear market ended, cryptocurrency ownership did not increase significantly. In October 2023, 17.1% of respondents owned cryptocurrency, and the proportion dropped in January 2024. to 15.4%. Before and after the halving in March and April, the holding rates were 16.1% and 14.7% respectively. In May, the Federal Reserve reported that the number of people in the United States who owned or used cryptocurrencies was about 18 million, based on a survey of more than 11,000 respondents. Tether invests $100 million in Latin American agricultural giant Adecoagro. According to IntoTheBlock data, addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC hold 20.3% of the circulating supply of BTC, equivalent to 4.01 million BTC, an increase of 5% from 3.82 million BTC six months ago, showing the trend of BTC whale addresses increasing their holdings in the past six months. According to HODL15Capital data, one address (Mr.500) increased its holdings of 500 BTC on August 26, and continued to increase its holdings by 1,000 BTC every day. As of September 7, this address held 12,500 BTC, which is approximately US$677 million. Social Capital Markets research data shows that since 2017, lobbying expenditures in the U.S. cryptocurrency industry have increased by 1,386% in the past seven years, from US$80,000 in 2017 to US$2.9 million in 2023, led by CB, Bn and Bailey Morality is the main priority. Presto Research analysts Peter Chung and MinJung reported that macro factors have dominated BTC price discussions recently, ignoring "cybersecurity", one of the key fundamentals supporting the value of BTC. The computing power has reached a record high of 679 EH/S. If this If this trend continues, then BTC currently appears to be severely undervalued. Media reports say the price could drop below $50,000 in the coming days.

At the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, Powell said: The time has come for the Fed to adjust its monetary policy, and it does not seek further cooling of the labor market. The cooling of the U.S. labor market is "obvious", it is no longer overheated, and confidence in the return of inflation to 2% has increased. The market interpreted it as "Powell's strongest signal of interest rate cuts so far", saying that he intends to take action to avoid further weakness in the U.S. labor market. The U.S. dollar plummeted and fell below 101, falling to 100.6 points, and the U.S. dollar index is expected to fall for the fourth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since April 2023.

On August 22, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that "the vast majority of members" believed that a rate cut in September might be appropriate, and that easing monetary policy too late or too little could excessively weaken economic activity or employment. The dollar index fell below 101 to 100.92 points, and Capital Economics expects the dollar index DXY to fall to 98 by the end of 2025.
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U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said the window for crypto legislation in 2024 is shrinking, but it is still possible to pass some bills this year. Senator Scott said he hopes to set up a subcommittee focused on digital assets to make the conversation clearer, hold more hearings on the banking industry, get things done faster, and go further and faster in a shorter time. FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the reorganization plan submitted to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware has received overwhelming initial support from all categories of creditors. Unofficial voting reports show that more than 95% of voting creditors voted in favor of the plan, accounting for 99% of the value of the voting claims. FTX CEO and Chief Restructuring Officer John J.Ray III said: The plan stipulates that 100% of the bankruptcy claim amount and interest will be returned to non-government creditors. FTX will submit the final voting results to the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware Bankruptcy Court before the confirmation hearing scheduled to begin on October 7, 2024. The total amount of ETH has increased by 228,000 ETH in the past four and a half months, worth $602 million, with an average daily inflation of 1,652 ETH. Due to the reduced on-chain activity, ETH Gas has been below 2 Gwei for a long time since early April this year. Low Gas means that the output of ETH will be greater than the destruction and in a state of inflation. According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $62,000, the cumulative short order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 795 million; if it falls below $59,000, the cumulative long order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 786 million. Mark Gordon, governor of Wyoming, said that the state plans to issue a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar in 2025, and the state is currently working to support stablecoins through US Treasury bonds and repurchase agreements. BlockBeats information, BTC's volatility has exceeded the level in March (when BTC hit a record high) and continues to rise. Traders believe that this may be the catalyst needed for BTC to finally break out of the consolidation phase. But to trigger a rebound, it must first remain above $61,000 and successfully retest the $62,000 level, a level it has not reached since August 9. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that BTC ETFs are being adopted by institutional investors faster than any other ETF in history. Since its launch in January, BTC spot ETFs have had a net inflow of $17.5 billion. The previous record holder, Nasdaq 100 QQQ, only had a net inflow of about $5 billion in the first year.

The number of leveraged positions in U.S. Treasury futures rose to an all-time high, reaching a record level of nearly 23 million 10-year Treasury futures, with about $1.5 billion at risk for every basis point change in the underlying cash bonds. Bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve hit a record high, with expectations that the Fed will begin its first rate cut in more than four years.
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Terra announced that a date has been set for the confirmation hearing of the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case of Terraform Labs Pte Ltd (TFL) and Terraform Labs Limited (TLL). The hearing will be held on September 19, 2024. Bloomberg reported that Emomotimi Agama, Director General of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said that the regulator plans to issue the first batch of digital service and tokenized asset licenses this month. CoinDesk reported that the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has approved the issuance of the second Solana ETF. The agency disclosed the news in its central database. The new Solana ETF is currently in the pre-operational stage. According to Ultrasound data, the net supply of ETH has increased by 16,565 in the past 7 days, of which the supply has increased by about 18,086 ETH and 1,521 ETH has been destroyed. The supply growth rate is currently 0.719% per year. According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $61,000, the cumulative short order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 921 million; if BTC falls below $58,000, the cumulative long order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 781 million. According to ai_9684xtpa data, asset management company Galaxy Digital is suspected of increasing its holdings of 1,380 BTC in the past two days. State Street Bank selected Taurus to provide digital asset services. State Street Bank said that the initial focus is on launching tokenized versions of traditional assets. Lamine Brahimi, managing partner of Swiss Taurus, pointed out the advantages of tokenization, such as the ability to trade around the clock and optimize collateral management, while also echoing the need for the United States to improve the regulatory environment. According to Matrixport research, Trump has recently led Harris in some election polls, and his friendly stance on BTC may drive the crypto market to rebound. At the same time, the Nasdaq index has rebounded since the flash crash on August 5, and technology stocks have risen sharply, but the price of BTC has lagged behind. With Fed Chairman Powell about to give a speech this week, his dovish tone may help boost BTC and narrow the gap with Nasdaq. Bloomberg reported that K33 Research said that the BTC derivatives market shows that the risk of short squeeze is increasing, which may trigger a rebound in BTC, and indicators help measure speculators' long or short sentiment.

The US dollar index fell below 102 to 101.5 for the first time since January this year, and the price of gold continued to hit a new high of $2,531.58 per ounce. According to a Reuters survey, 55 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year (in September, November and December), and the surveyed economists expect the average economic growth rate of the United States in 2024 and 2025 to be 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. When there is negative growth for two consecutive quarters, it is defined as a "technical" recession.
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The Block reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected two Solana spot ETF 19b-4 applications submitted by Cboe BZX, which have been withdrawn from the Cboe website. The 19b-4 application is submitted by Cboe, and if it is published in the Federal Register, it will initiate the SEC's approval process. Another important form is the S-1 registration statement, which is submitted by the issuer without any deadline. Because the SEC rejected the 19b-4 forms, these forms have never been published in the Federal Register, and therefore have not initiated the potential approval or rejection process. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has held talks with potential Solana ETF issuers and expressed concerns about Solana's potential status as a security. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said that although Cboe Global Markets has removed the 19b-4 filing for the VanEck Solana ETF from its website, VanEck's S-1 (Solana ETF) filing is still valid. Sigel said: Solana is a commodity rather than a security, which is determined by evolving legal views. Bitwise announced that it has acquired ETC Group, a London-based digital asset management company and the largest issuer of physical BTC ETP (BTCE) in Europe. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor said that the BTC 20% discount promotion is about to end. On August 20, Metaplanet Inc., a Japanese listed company, increased its holdings by approximately 57.273 BTC at an average price of $59,613. As of August 20, Metaplanet held approximately 360.368 BTC. On August 20, the daily trading volume of the US spot BTF ETF was US$779.87 million, the lowest level since February 6, and the third lowest level of overall daily trading volume. Augustine Fan, director of SOFAorg, said: Low trading volume is expected, because market sentiment has been depressed since the massive sell-off a few weeks ago. The summer vacation and recent data have reduced people’s concerns about an impending recession. Investors have to wait for more signals from the Federal Reserve meeting later this week. Matrixport said that BTC is at a critical point to break through the current narrowing triangle pattern. If it breaks upward, it may trigger positive momentum; otherwise, the price rebound expectation may be extended.

On Thursday, the U.S. released data showing that the monthly rate of retail sales in July was 1%, higher than the expected value of 0.3% and higher than the previous value of 0.00%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week was 227,000, lower than the expected value of 235,000 and lower than the previous value of 233,000. The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in July was 1%, the highest increase since January 2023, easing financial market concerns about the sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy. U.S. stock indexes opened higher, with the Nasdaq index rising 2% during the session and the S&P 500 index rising 1.5%, with the big cake lagging behind.
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The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) said that more than 58% of cryptocurrency ads on Facebook violated Meta's advertising policy and were scams. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) said its commissioners voted 5-0 to pass new federal regulations that prohibit anyone from "selling or buying false social media influence indicators, including followers or views generated by robots or hijacked accounts." U.S. advertising lawyer Rob Freund said that any increase in views, saves, plays, subscriptions, likes, etc. through non-real means violates the new rules." Vanguard CEO Salim Ramji said the company would not copy its competitor (BlackRock) and would not launch a cryptocurrency ETF. ai_9684xtpa data shows that since August this year, Lido ETH pledge has had a net outflow for 12 consecutive days, with a total outflow of 74,304 ETH (about $194 million). Among them, JumpTrading redeemed 62,609 ETH from Lido. According to Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $57,000, the cumulative long order liquidation of mainstream CEX will reach $607 million. Marathon Digital said that the company has increased its holdings of 4,144 BTC (worth about $249 million) and its reserves exceed 25,000 BTC. Lookonchain data shows that since August 5, a total of $955 million in stablecoins have flowed from Tether to Kraken. Cynthia LoBessette, head of Fidelity Digital Asset Management, said that although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not yet approved an ETF that can pledge ETH, this may change in the future because staking is an important part of ETH investment opportunities. It believes that it is more of a question of time rather than whether it will happen. Fidelity has had constructive dialogue with SEC staff to discuss the possibility of bringing a pledged ETH ETF to market. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at the Crypto4Harris town hall meeting that the United States should find a balance for cryptocurrencies between promoting innovation and providing common-sense guardrails. Congress has the responsibility to provide common-sense and reasonable regulation, with the goal of having the Senate pass a bill and enact it into law by the end of this year.

On Wednesday, the U.S. released data showing:
The annual rate of CPI in July was 2.9%, lower than the expected value of 3.00% and lower than the previous value of 3.00%. The annual rate of core CPI in July was 3.2%, in line with the expected value of 3.20% and lower than the previous value of 3.30%. The US CPI fell to 2.9%, falling for the fourth consecutive month, and it was the first time to return to the "2-digit" since March 2021. The market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting is 56.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 43.5%.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly announced a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the interest rate from 5.5% to 5.25%, the first rate cut since March 2020, and the Fed also started an easing cycle much earlier than previously expected. MUFG MSS, a joint venture of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, plans to issue digital securities this year. Bloomberg reported that one of the most watched legal cases in the cryptocurrency field made important progress last week, with the court ruling that RippleLabs Inc. pay a $125 million civil penalty because the company sold its tokens to institutional investors without registering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fine is only a small part of the $2 billion the agency was seeking, which may be good news for other crypto companies involved in lawsuits with the SEC Musk's AI company xAI announced the launch of an early preview version of Grok-2, which has chat, coding and reasoning capabilities. On August 13, the US TC spot ETF had a net inflow of $39 million; the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $25 million. QCP Capital said that the skewness of BTC put options has recovered significantly from -25% during the panic to -5% before the wash, but the market remains cautious in the short term. BlackRock (ETF) continues to achieve positive inflows. It is expected that US investors will continue to provide liquidity and support. Macro factors remain key to the crypto market. Glassnode said that as the market began to gradually recover from last week's sell-off, investors showed uncertainty and indecision. Since the BTC price hit a record high in March, the market has experienced a period of extensive supply distribution. In the past few weeks, this trend has shown early signs of reversal, especially the largest wallets associated with ETFs, which seem to be returning to a state of hoarding. Matrixport said that since March 2024, BTC spot ETF buyers have strictly implemented the strategy of buying on dips and waiting at high levels. With the start of the 13F quarterly reporting period, funds with more than US$100 million in US stock investments will begin to disclose information. It may be found that more US funds and asset management companies increased their holdings of BTC ETFs in the second quarter, which may boost the confidence of institutional investors.

Data released by the United States on Tuesday showed that the annual rate of producer price index (PPI) in July was 2.2%, lower than the expected value of 2.3% and lower than the previous value of 2.6%. The monthly rate of PPI in July was 0.1%, lower than the expected value of 0.20% and lower than the previous value of 0.20%. After the release of weak US PPI data, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The Nasdaq rose 2% during the session, the S&P 500 rose 1.3%, and the Penny Stock Index rose 2.7%. On Wednesday, the United States released another inflation indicator, the CPI.
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Germany's largest development bank, KfW, has teamed up with Boerse Stuttgart Digital (BSD) as an infrastructure provider partner to prepare for an upcoming blockchain-based digital bond issuance. KfW plans to issue bonds under Germany's Electronic Securities Act (eWpG) in the coming weeks. BSD will be responsible for managing crypto wallets and protecting private keys during the issuance and redemption process. The upcoming bond issuance will be part of the European Central Bank's trial of using central bank money to settle blockchain-based transactions. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said that Coinbase has submitted another opinion brief to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the agency's proposed expansion of the definition of "trading platform", arguing that the SEC's proposal lacks critical analysis and should be withdrawn and revised. Liquidators of the bankrupt cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) are seeking at least $1.3 billion in compensation from Terraform Labs, the liquidator said in a court document. Japanese listed company Metaplanet spent 500 million yen to increase its holdings by 57.1 BTC and currently holds 303.095 BTC. On August 13, Musk said that the total views of the conversation with Trump and other subsequent discussions have now reached about 1 billion times. The "Musk X Trump" live broadcast discussed issues such as inflation, immigration, and AI, but did not mention cryptocurrency or BTC. Musk said that he also welcomes another candidate Harris to have a live dialogue in X Space. Bitfinex said that BTC rebounded strongly last week, rising nearly 28% from the recent low of $49,000, the lowest price since February, after falling 33.32% from the all-time high of $73,666, the largest correction in the current cycle. The US economy continues to show resilience, and although concerns about a potential slowdown continue, recent data supports a more optimistic outlook, and BTC has begun to recover after experiencing the largest correction in this cycle. "Top trader" Eugene Ng Ah Sio said that the current market trend is similar to March 2022 or August 2023. However, investors should choose their own bullish direction.