The total U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, a new high, and it took only three months to increase by $1 trillion. Morgan Stanley expects that the strength of the U.S. dollar will peak before the end of the year, and will then enter a bear market pattern and slowly decline in 2025. The U.S. dollar and so-called risk assets tend to have an inverse relationship. On Monday, the Dow Jones stock index futures hit a record high and are currently up 0.6%, and the bull market has resumed.

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According to the latest report released by the Federal Budget Accountability Committee, an independent research organization in the United States, the total U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion this week, reaching a record high. It took just over three months from the end of July this year, when the total U.S. national debt reached $35 trillion, to now rise to $36 trillion. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said: Judging from the current situation of the European economy, interest rates must be cut again in December. The ECB has cut interest rates three times and is expected to cut interest rates again next month. The PMI data released last Friday showed that the eurozone private sector economy unexpectedly contracted, and the market bet that the bank may further cut interest rates by 50 basis points. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk's net worth has increased by 52% since the beginning of this year. As of November 22, his total assets reached $347.8 billion, a record high. According to Polymarket's BTC price forecast for this month, the probability of BTC reaching $110,000 this month is 12%, and the probability of reaching $105,000 is 32%. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that BTC may reach $100,000 by the end of this year and $250,000 by the end of 2025. He advises people who are experiencing a bull market for the first time to remain rational and cash out in time. If you always hold the emotion of "I can make more money", you will eventually lose the wealth you already have! Rick Wurster, president of Charles Schwab Corp., said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio: Once U.S. regulations allow, the company will consider offering spot cryptocurrency trading. When the U.S. regulatory environment changes, the company will enter the spot cryptocurrency field. It is expected to change and is preparing for this possibility.

Matrixport said that BlackRock launched BTC ETF options last week, with active trading volume and a steady increase in open interest, indicating that investors’ expectations for BTC’s future rise are increasing, and the price may enter a smoother rising stage, or may further decrease. Implied volatility, rising demand for options trading and an increase in large trades could further drive prices higher. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that the current BTC market has not yet entered the bubble stage. From the perspective of realized market value, compared with the cumulative on-chain inflow, the growth rate of market value is not significant. Based on the current steady upward trend of realized market value, there is still room for price growth. , the target can reach $141,000. Realized market capitalization measures market capital inflows by calculating the sum of the values ​​of all BTC at the time of their last on-chain transfer. Historical data shows that during a bull market the market value often exceeds the realized market value and reaches a peak when retail investors enter the market; during a bear market the market value may fall below the realized market value. Last week, BTC ETFs saw an inflow of $3.376 billion, including $2.054 billion from BlackRock IBIT and $773 million from Fidelity FBTC. On November 21, BTC’s market share rose to a current cycle high of about 60%. On Monday, BTC’s market share dropped to about 56%. The market value share of other currencies increased significantly, and prices began to rebound. Cointelegraph data shows that since November 2024, stablecoin issuer Tether has added more than $15 billion in stablecoins.

The total U.S. national debt has exceeded 36 trillion U.S. dollars, setting a new record. It took only three months to increase by 1 trillion U.S. dollars. The U.S. debt continues to grow. Trump is better at spending money. Morgan Stanley predicts that the strength of the U.S. dollar will peak before the end of the year, and will then enter a bear market pattern, slowly falling in 2025 (the U.S. dollar is called a so-called safe-haven asset, and the U.S. stock market/gold/currency market is called a so-called risky asset, and the two are often inversely proportional. On Monday, the Dow Jones stock index futures hit a record high and are currently up 0.6%; the S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.4%. In the past two days, BTC's market share has fallen by 4%, and some currencies have risen to a new high in the second half of the year or a new high this year. The time when Bitcoin stands at a high level and trades sideways is the time for other currencies to make up for the rise, which is often the case in a bull market. Last week, from the perspective of the Fed's interest rate cut/BTC's market share/capital greed, a simple analysis showed that the bull market is far from reaching its peak, and that we need to avoid being emotional in a bull market. The short-term impact on the market is the Fed's meeting minutes on Wednesday and the US inflation indicator PCE price index (previous value 2.7%, expected value 2.8%). The current probability of a rate cut in December is 52.7%, and Wednesday's data will affect the probability of a rate cut in December. There are a lot of excerpts today, so I won't write much analysis, and keep a regular schedule. #比特币关键区间