Arthur Hayes: The U.S. Treasury will release a quarterly refinancing announcement next week, which is expected to re-accelerate the crypto bull market
On April 26, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote on the X platform: "As expected, tax revenue increased by about $200 billion to the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA). Forget the Fed meeting in May. The refinancing announcement for the second quarter of 2024 will be announced next week. What strategy will Yellen adopt?
Here are a few options:
1. Stop issuing Treasury bonds by draining TGA to zero, which will inject $1 trillion of liquidity into the market.
2. Shift more borrowing to short-term Treasury bills, which will withdraw funds from reverse repurchase (RRP), equivalent to injecting $400 billion of liquidity into the market.
3. Combine options 1 and 2, do not issue long-term bonds, only issue short-term Treasury bills, and drain TGA and RRP at the same time, which will inject $1.4 trillion of liquidity into the market.
The impact of the Fed is negligible, and Yellen is a powerful character.
If any of the above three options occurs, the stock market is expected to rise, and most importantly, the cryptocurrency bull market will re-accelerate."
