Bitcoin Bubble and Cycle

Soros said: "The history of world economy is a series based on illusions and lies. The interpretation of economic history is never based on real scripts, but it paves the way for accumulating huge wealth. The way is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public."

Any game has nothing to do with truth or falsehood, but only the length of the four life cycles. Some end at the beginning, and most of these are losses as soon as they enter; some end after a period of existence, like the snowball product that broke out before the New Year; and some end after a long time, similar to the three major bubbles that affected the world economy, the tulip bubble, the South China Sea bubble and the Mississippi bubble.

Human nature is like this. Bad things are devalued again and again, and good things are praised again and again. When talking about "bubbles", they open their fangs of hatred, but they forget that just before the tulip bubble, the people who participated in the tulips did not feel that way at the time. Their worth kept rising. Who would hate the bubble at that time? Everyone has plenty of time to leave, but in the end, the "tulip" took everything.

Everything in the world is an illusion. What you know may not be true, and what you have may not be true. It is just the length of the time cycle. So don’t be obsessed with the truth or falsehood of finance. What you are obsessed with is the length of the cycle. What you need to do is to identify the length of the cycle. For example, a few days ago I saw a description of a coin called mew, "A cat in the dog world, it wants to save the world from other dog coins." It doesn’t even want to make a description. Do you still expect its cycle to last long?

Similarly, on the other hand, you should have your own ideas about things with long cycles. The whole world is talking about the Dutch tulip bubble, but who would think about the overwhelming opportunity when a tulip was fried to 1668 guilders (equivalent to a worker’s annual salary)? According to the law of conservation of funds in the market, no matter what is changing, the total value of funds will not change. If someone loses, someone must make money. The winner is the person who throws out the most crazy market, and the last one is the person who is caught by the devil.

In our minds, we should pay more attention to cycles and opportunities. As the saying goes, the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish. We should not promote the bubble everywhere, which is just air. We should think more about the short cycle and we may not be able to get out of it in time. This is what a person should think about. We should not talk about the Florida real estate bubble and the Kuwait oil bubble every day......

What I admire most are those who pulled out before the big bubble, not those who muttered: "Look how smart I am, I knew it would burst..." In this market, you can't just rely on bragging, success is made, so we must be able to examine the cycle and look at crises with a dialectical eye. Most crises are the beginning of opportunities. We must seize the opportunity and dare to act. In the words of Churchill: "Never waste a crisis."

Today's article is a supplement to what I wanted to say a few days ago but didn't say it due to some accidents. I also want to say "Why panic" to those who are "panicking, panicking, panicking", and to those who want to speculate every day: "Thank you for your greatness, your failure in speculation is paving the way for our next success."

Finally: To be more ruthless, unsuccessful trading is a lack of cognition and thinking. Some people are destined to be sheep and cannot change. Which currency that can be at the top of the market for a long time is a big fool? If you can't compare your intelligence with them, you can only compare your stupidity the other way around.