Continuing to linger in the oscillation range, the price is ready to break through the 100k barrier at any time. Moving forward, it will still continue to entangle within this range, and there won’t be any substantial changes in the short term.
At this time, one should have both bullish and bearish thinking. If you are bullish, you should be determined to go long; if you are bearish, you should be determined to short. Given the current market situation, it’s time to be bearish. The principle of being bearish is to focus on large-cap stocks, with an appropriate leverage and an exit point. I need to know at what point to exit if I'm right and at what point to exit if I'm wrong. If I exit at the wrong point, I’ll be on the line.
Speaking of which, I can tell you that my thinking on shorting is still relatively high, but I feel the profit from such shorting is still low and lacks imagination. The price can drop a maximum of 99.9% at once, which means a 3x contract would only yield 300% and a 5x contract only 500%. However, big drops of 40% or more in the market are very rare, while in a bull market, a 50% rise is quite ordinary!
So when it comes to shorting, it’s not wise to be overly bearish. I’ve gone through many similar situations, and the most memorable was AXS in November 2022. At that time, I was shorting, and the stock surged over 90% in a single day, going from profit to loss. After that, it fell again before turning profitable, almost leading to a liquidation. This was still a case of selecting positions well. So when a cryptocurrency becomes a small-cap stock, don’t choose to short it; even when shorting, don’t be overly aggressive! Also, shorting really doesn’t make money unless the market is terrible, and you have no choice but to take that route!
Returning to 1, the overall upward momentum is still there. This price level is acceptable; if contracts are primarily 3x, if it doesn’t rise in the next couple of days, we still need to stabilize and focus on the future!
For shorting, one should pay attention to the levels. It’s a bit more casual for spot trading. If you don't experience a 50% fluctuation or loss, it’s difficult to earn a 500% profit. In contracts, to make big profits, you must accept losses of at least 60%. If the level is sufficient, a 6% fluctuation is enough; if leveraged at 5x, the loss should be limited to 30% of the principal!
A friend of mine introduced me to Aleo a long time ago, saying it was a project backed by SoftBank. Someone else told him it was great, but I told him it didn’t align with my principles. Even if it was invested in by a UAE prince, I wouldn’t consider it for now. As a result, the price fell from 4 to 1.2, and now it has dropped to 0.89, directly trapping him. I heard that he invested more than half of his wealth into it.
Yesterday he asked me what to do, but I couldn't answer him because if I let him go, if the price goes up again, he'll forget the current suffering and blame me for shattering his dreams. If I don’t let him go and the price continues to drop, he might blame me for not telling him to cut losses in time. This kind of decision is thankless, so I replied to him: 'I've lost everything, haven't played for a long time, and I'm not very knowledgeable about this!'
If he could afford to lose, he should have listened to me and given up on averaging down a long time ago. Instead, he refuses to admit defeat and suffers when the price drops. People consumed by greed like this cannot be saved; the same goes for the idea that we cannot stop others from benefiting from their suffering. If he had this awareness and followed your advice, win or lose I have no regrets. I would still tell him what to do and later find a way to recover the funds!
I see he has already lost his senses; it’s better to avoid him!
