This year’s crypto bull market is 100% certain, and the probability of a major correction (a drop of 30-50%) in March is 80%. Focus on tracking three points in time: the US January PCE data will be released on February 29, the Bank Term Financing Plan (BTFP) will expire on March 12, and the Federal Reserve’s second interest rate meeting in 2024 will be held on March 20. The higher-than-expected PCE represents a rebound in inflation that further suppresses the market's expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve; the expiration of BTFP will not be renewed, and the collapse of small and medium-sized banks in the United States has restarted the liquidity crisis. The Federal Reserve is forced to rescue the market and re-inject liquidity, whether it is to renew the BTFP, cut interest rates in advance, or slow down Whether to shrink the balance sheet or activate new liquidity tools, Bitcoin will rebound in a V-shaped manner and start a bull market, because Bitcoin is a high-risk asset that is highly sensitive to liquidity. #BTC