There are four themes in May: Bitcoin halving and big correction bottoming out; MEME season; AI big event month; Ethereum spot ETF approved. On May 1, after the Federal Reserve's third interest rate meeting in 2024, all the bad news was exhausted, and the Bitcoin halving correction was officially declared over. On May 3, the US non-farm data in April showed weak employment, which increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin started a strong rebound. On May 15, the positive US CPI data in April further increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin continued to rise. On May 20, the approval of Ethereum spot ETF was reversed for political reasons, ETH rose strongly, and BTC rushed above $70,000. On May 13, the big brother of US retail investors, "Roaring Kitten", returned, and the US stock market restarted the retail investors' battle against Wall Street to hype MEME stocks, while also bringing the hype of MEME in the currency circle. May is a month of major AI events. On May 14, OpenAI launched the upgraded version of ChatGPT, GPT-4o. WLD surged and then started to fall. The whole network was shorting WLD and pessimistic about all low-circulation project coins. It also coincided with the hype of US MEME stocks, and retail investors fully embraced MEME coins. On May 24, the approval of Ethereum spot ETF was completed. The US SEC approved the 19B-4 form of 8 spot Ethereum ETFs, but it still needs time to approve the S-1 form. It is expected that it will take several weeks to months before it is officially listed for trading. On May 23, Nvidia released its first quarter financial report that exceeded expectations, but the AI sector performed mediocrely. At present, all funds are pouring into ETH for gambling, and ETH is seriously sucking blood. On May 22, the Federal Reserve released the hawkish minutes of the monetary policy meeting, which suppressed the market's expectations of interest rates. At the same time, the Federal Reserve officials have been singing hawkishly, and the macro market environment is bearish. As of May 24, the good news has been exhausted, the bad news has emerged, and the market profit-taking has entered a correction period. It is expected that BTC will return to below 65,000 and ETH will return to below 3,500. The market is weak and waiting for new hot spots. In June, the Federal Reserve officially began to reduce the balance sheet reduction quota by 30 billion US dollars, which is an increase of 30 billion US dollars in liquidity to the market. It is currently in the mid-term stage of this bull market. The main rising stage of the bull market is expected to wait until August. Long-term spot continues to be held, and it is better to rest in the short-term market weakness. It will take time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Focus on the US dollar against the Japanese yen exchange rate. The large increase in the US dollar-Japanese yen currency swap quota is equivalent to a disguised injection of US dollar liquidity, which is a major macro force driving this bull market. This bull market began in June 2023, and BlackRock began to apply for Bitcoin spot ETF as a landmark event.Because of the large participation of institutions, this round of bull market is moving faster, breaking the historical high before the halving. Therefore, this round of bull market is likely to peak in December 2024 or January 2025. The landmark event is the end of the US election and the inauguration of a new round of presidents. On January 20, 2025, the new president of the United States will be inaugurated. 2024 is a big election year, and political factors have become a major variable in this bull market. Whether it is Bitcoin ETF or Ethereum ETF, they are serving political elections. Many policies of the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are also to cooperate with Biden's election. The prosperity of the development of the crypto ecosystem itself, the advancement of AI technology, and the weakening of the dollar in the macro environment have jointly promoted the development of this bull market.
