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$BNB

Determining an entry point isn’t actually that hard.

What’s truly difficult is this: when the price hasn’t reached your level yet, can you still hold back and not jump in early? When it gets near your stop-loss area, can you avoid running away just because you’re afraid? When your floating profit hasn’t yet hit the target, can you resist the urge to close out early? And once your stop-loss has been broken, can you accept that you were wrong instead of clinging to hope and continuing to hold on.

There’s another even more deadly one: you’ve been winning many times in a row, and slowly you start to feel like you’re good. Then your position size keeps increasing, and finally one big loss wipes out all the profit you made before.

So after trading for so many years, I’ve increasingly felt that while technical analysis is just a threshold, what truly creates the gap is execution and mindset. Very often, you don’t necessarily not know what to do—you just can’t do it when real money is on the line.

I’ve fallen into these traps plenty myself. Some have been fixed, and some I still occasionally make mistakes with. The longer you trade, the more you realize the hardest part isn’t judging the market—it’s restraining yourself. If you can wait when you should wait, cut losses when you should cut them, and hold your positions when you should hold them, then you’ve already beaten most people.

Right now $BTC is the final phase of the bear market!

It’s not about how much it’s dropping; it’s that the whole market has started to become especially boring: volatility is getting smaller and smaller, discussion has clearly declined, and both retail traders in the market and active capital are shrinking. Many people think this kind of market is the hardest to endure, but if you look back at several previous cycles, when things truly get close to the bottom, it’s often exactly this kind of state—nobody’s talking, nobody’s excited, and the price also isn’t willing to give you a clean, satisfying drop.

The end of 2022 is a very typical example. After BTC broke below 20,000, it didn’t immediately kick off a new run. Instead, it churned around at low levels for nearly two months, until early 2023 before it really started moving. The most torturous part of the bottom is never the violent dump—it’s the long, grinding sideways action.

Now, on the daily chart, short-term moving averages are also gradually converging. EMA21, MA30, and MA60 are basically getting tangled together. With this kind of market structure, you should actually pay attention to a potential upward dead-cat bounce to test longer-period moving averages like MA120 and MA200, and then decide whether there’s still a final “last kick.”

So if it really breaks the previous low, don’t panic—just go ahead.

If there isn’t a sudden negative shock at the level of something like FTX, then even if it breaks the previous low, I think it’ll only reach about 45—53. The market has been grinding here for so long; in essence, it’s been continuously draining holders’ patience.

Of course, it’s easy to smash the price down. The real question is: who will take the chips after it’s dumped?
If the chips in the low range have already been locked up little by little, and the number of people truly willing to sell keeps getting smaller, then the meaning of continuing to dump is actually not that big. Spending a lot of money to drive the price down, only for the other side to neatly absorb all the chips—turns out you’re basically doing a favor for someone else.

So what’s more worth focusing on now may not be whether the previous low breaks, but whether, after it breaks, there’s sustained selling pressure.

If it’s just a brief spike that pierces the previous low and then quickly snaps back—maybe even back above the range—then it’s very likely to be one final shakeout.

What might be missing now isn’t necessarily a lower price, but time.
Time until the impatient people leave the market, until short-term capital loses interest, until nobody is talking about BTC anymore—and when most people think, “This market has no hope,” that’s when the real trend could finally start.

Many times, the bottom isn’t a precise price—it’s a stretch of time that completely grinds everyone’s patience.

I don’t understand why people are still shouting “shanzhai season” now. Don’t they give up?

I’m doing better too. Before, I was the one giving fishing lures to fans as gifts, but this time I received a lure rod from a fan.

It’s been a long time since we discussed the crypto market outlook. Next week, $BTC should move upward, and then let the short order I placed be bought.

Short $SNDK —brothers are all blessed people! I guess you’re all trapped and suffering terribly. If you had seen me earlier, wouldn’t you have avoided being trapped? I said it when it was around 1300 the day before yesterday: once it passed storage and bounced, that was the shorting stage. So I changed my thinking—after the retracement, should go long. But the move happened too fast, more than expected. So I definitely can’t go long on a retracement here.

Now I’m saying this again: observe for two days, then we can look for an opportunity to short. As for this Sandisk, it looks like it’s here to harvest liquidity. All these fluctuations are artificially controlled by capital.

If the USD to RMB exchange rate returns to 7 within one year, I think at least several conditions need to occur at the same time.

First, the U.S. Federal Reserve either raises rates again, or at least the market re-forms expectations of “higher interest rates maintained for longer.” Ideally, another 25–50 basis points would be added, so that the yield on U.S. dollar assets rises again and the U.S. Dollar Index is more likely to strengthen. Second, China continues to cut interest rates and reserve requirements, with monetary policy becoming further accommodative. If the United States maintains high rates or even raises them again, while China releases liquidity to support growth, the China–U.S. interest-rate differential would widen again, which would reduce the appeal of RMB assets relative to USD assets.

Third, the Chinese economy would need to show more clearly defined pressure again, such as continued deterioration in real estate, weak domestic demand, falling corporate profits, or reduced foreign-asset allocation to China. Simply having a stronger dollar may not be enough; the RMB itself also needs to face some depreciation pressure. Fourth, the trade surplus starts to narrow. If the Strait of Hormuz remains unable to resume normal navigation for a long time, oil and gas prices and shipping costs will stay elevated. As China is a major energy importer, it would need to pay more USD to buy energy. After import costs rise, even if exports do not noticeably decline, the trade surplus may still be compressed, naturally weakening support for the RMB.

Fifth, the market again increases its demand for the U.S. dollar. For example, firms reduce converting RMB to foreign currency, increase USD deposits, and residents and institutions boost overseas asset allocation. Meanwhile, foreign investors reduce their allocation to RMB assets, and may even see outflows.

So, as I understand it, for the USD/RMB to return to 7, it’s essentially not just “betting” on the dollar rising. It requires seeing the dollar become stronger while the RMB becomes weaker at the same time. Only when both forces show up together will the 7 level truly become easier to reach.

Alright, now that the gold $XAU isn’t pretending anymore, it’s been knocked into first gear and the unit has come down. Will it go to 4000? No, no— it won’t go to 3500 either. But it’s not going down smoothly in a straight line; there will definitely be fluctuations along the way. The risk of getting in mid-route is up to you to manage.

$SNDK This is about getting rid of all those brothers with fixed mindset—short on the rebound!

When I said it yesterday, it was still around 1300; now it’s looking like 1500. Those shorts opened at around 1200+—were they all wiped out?

Let’s assume you didn’t see what I said yesterday about SanDisk already being past the rebound point to short—then you needed to change your thinking. If you pulled back, go long instead. If you didn’t see this post of mine, wouldn’t your short positions be trapped?

As for my position, brothers, don’t worry—my short orders over 1600 have already been cut a long time ago. And yesterday, I also traded some SanDisk positions.

Interview how many people $SNDK were forced down from the empty train car and couldn’t get back up. I said it yesterday: the era of shorting when the market rebounds is over. Although I do hold shorts, I’m still very clear-headed and telling you to change your mindset—pullbacks can be used to go long.

Short- and mid-term line trading: I’ve always stuck to two principles.

First, when clear oversold rebound signals and a trend start to show up on the daily and weekly charts, but the hourly timeframe is still choppy and back-and-forth—confusing you until you can’t tell what to do—I prioritize the daily and weekly. Because once the bigger timeframe begins to repair, no matter how the smaller timeframe shakes you out or whipsaws you, the odds are still high that price will ultimately reach the daily and weekly rebound targets.

Trading can’t be right every single time. But as long as there’s logic and evidence behind your judgment, even if you end up wrong, it’s still a correct decision in essence. What trading fears most is never just making a mistake—it’s having no judgment of your own. When it rises you ask others, when it falls you ask others, and in the end you don’t even know why you bought in the first place.

Second, once the “bottom-picking” zone has been locked to 2–3 locations, and those levels may all be revisited with pullbacks, don’t insist on waiting for that so-called absolute low. The market isn’t an exam—you don’t have to get full marks every time.

Adults don’t make choices. They just want it all. And if you’ve already determined this is a bottom zone, as long as the rebound space afterward can cover your entry cost, getting in a bit earlier is fundamentally just taking on a little short-term floating loss, in exchange for the chance to get on board sooner.

If you want to eat the big move, you sometimes have to endure things that ordinary people can’t.
Because missing the opportunity to get in and carrying a floating loss are two completely different psychological states. If you keep waiting for the absolute lowest point, and the market rebounds immediately, the more it rises, the less you dare to chase—until you end up watching the whole move go by.

But if you enter early in the bottom zone, even if you start with a small floating loss, once price moves into floating profit, your position mindset actually becomes steadier and steadier. That makes it easier to hold through this trend.

So my trading logic has always been simple: the bigger timeframe gives the direction, and the smaller timeframe finds the entry spot. I’d rather get in a little early in the bottom zone than miss the entire trade just to chase absolute perfection. The market itself isn’t perfect—so people shouldn’t, for sure, try to make their trading perfect.

Gold finally, finally isn’t so hard anymore. I stopped out once above it, and now I’m waiting for him to pay back once more with a big move. $XAU Next, as long as it doesn’t break into new highs, you can hold a bearish view all the way down. The future bottom is at 3500.

U.S. strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) have fallen below 300 million barrels, dropping to 298.7 million. After the war began, cumulative consumption has exceeded 110 million barrels. The truly noteworthy figure isn’t how long the U.S. can keep going, but that the “cards the U.S. can use to buy time” are running out—<br><br>Over the past period, while the U.S. has been exerting military and economic pressure on Iran, it has also been releasing SPR to buffer the supply gap caused by disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In plain terms, it’s trading strategic reserves for time. But strategic reserves are not infinite. As SPR keeps declining, the U.S. will feel increasingly uncomfortable: if it keeps releasing, the inventory safety cushion becomes thinner and thinner; if it doesn’t, oil and gasoline prices are likely to rise again, ultimately feeding into inflation—and what the U.S. fears most is precisely this.<br><br>So I actually believe the lower the SPR is, the less reason the U.S. has to drag out a long standoff with Iran. At that point, there are basically two paths: either accelerate negotiations, exchanging more on issues such as sanctions, assets, oil exports, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, to restore commercial shipping as quickly as possible; or continue to increase military pressure, pushing Iran into conceding at the negotiating table. On the surface these are two directions, but the goal is the same—to get the Strait of Hormuz back to normal as soon as possible.<br><br>For Iran, the lower the SPR, the more valuable the leverage it holds is in the short term. The more anxious the U.S. is, the greater Iran’s opportunity to bargain for better terms. But if Iran keeps raising its demands and forces the U.S. into a position where “a negotiated solution isn’t possible,” then a military escalation could happen even faster.<br><br>That’s why my outlook on crude oil remains bearish. Not because I think there’s no risk of war in the short term—on the contrary, in the short term oil prices could still swing sharply due to geopolitical conflicts. But from a medium-term perspective, what the U.S. truly needs to address is no longer “how to keep holding on,” but “how to end this situation as quickly as possible.” If the war keeps dragging on, SPR keeps being consumed, oil prices remain high, inflation keeps coming under pressure, and on top of that the U.S. faces mounting domestic political pressure and the mid-term elections—the cost the U.S. can bear will become increasingly unsustainable.<br><br>So no matter whether it ultimately relies on negotiations or increases military pressure, as long as the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal shipping operations, the war premium currently priced into the market could quickly unwind. This is also the core reason I’m still willing to short oil: in the short term we’re looking at war, but in the medium term we’re looking at how the war ends—and my bet is on the latter.

SpaceX stock has risen nearly 40% over the past 5 trading days, yet its trillion-dollar market value looks like a knockoff—just these few days are enough for BTC to run for half a year. Could the crypto market be a sunset industry?

$GIGGLE charity coins were burned, and I also heard that this stuff has especially high traffic. But with such a small market cap, why does it have such high hype?

Could it be Binance operating behind the scenes?

Right now, storing/positioning is probably in the phase where people short after a rebound. Even if my short position ($SNDK ) is still on the books, I’m still of this view. Today, many people are probably trapped/holding losing positions in their trades. I expect this rhythm to continue for a while.

You can change your mindset: every time there’s a pullback, go long!

The bottom of gold in this round, $XAU , is around 3500. I have always held to this view. The last time I said 3500, gold was still at 5200 ounces, and everyone should remember that.

$GIGGLE Does this posture look like a dish-washing operation technique that’s about to surge? It looks like the kind of setup that’s ready for aggressive trading.