On March 5, the U.S. "little non-farm" employment data showed that the ADP employment number for February was 77,000, far below the expected 140,000, with the previous value revised upwards to 186,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024. The market is concerned that Trump's tariff measures could exacerbate the already weak U.S. economy, and traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will likely resume interest rate cuts as early as May. The U.S. dollar index fell more than 1% during the day to 104.4 points. The interest rate market indicates that the market is pricing in over a 50% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in May, fully pricing in three cuts in 2025.

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that its special task force on crypto assets will hold a series of roundtable discussions to discuss key areas of crypto asset regulation. This series of events is named "Spring Sprint: Towards Clarity in Crypto Regulation" and the first roundtable "How Did We Get Here and How Do We Get Out -- Defining Securities Attributes" will be held on March 21. The U.S. Senate passed the Congressional Review Act (CRA) proposed by Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Mike Carey to repeal the so-called "DeFi broker rules," pending approval from the House of Representatives. The White House stated yesterday that Trump may quickly sign this resolution. Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds pledged to support including BTC in the state reserve during an appearance on Fox News, hoping to make BTC part of the state financial portfolio. Foundation Capital completed a $600 million financing round, mainly focused on investments in corporate, artificial intelligence, fintech, and crypto sectors. The Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holding by 497 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 2888 BTC, with an average price of $84,325. The whale address 7 Siblings increased its holdings of 17855.3 ETH at an average price of $2054, holding over 1,169,015 ETH across two addresses. Bloomberg reported that after raising billions in financing, BTC infrastructure provider Blockstream plans to launch three crypto funds on April 1. Trump's WLFI address has unrealized losses of $87.83 million, with a loss of $67.02 million solely from its ETH position.

On March 5, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index slightly rebounded from 15 to 20, still in an "extreme fear" state. The average for last week was 21 (extreme fear), and the average for last month was 44 (fear), indicating that market sentiment remains low. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that there are no significant changes in on-chain activity, and key indicators remain neutral, indicating that the bull market cycle continues. The fundamentals remain robust; if this cycle ends here, it would be an undesirable outcome for everyone, including whales, mining companies, the traditional financial industry, and even Trump. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Trump's BTC reserve plan is overall positive news, and the negotiation style of Trump implies that the initial proposal will not be the final version; the U.S. move may trigger a global BTC accumulation race; once acquired, these crypto assets are likely to be held long-term and not sold. Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated that there is a lot of talk about "giving up" lately, but every key moment in the crypto space is full of challenges; at the bottom, there are always voices saying "it can go lower". He still believes this is a pullback in a mid-term bull market, and the peak of the cycle has not yet arrived. Crypto assets are the fastest-moving horses in the financial world; if the U.S. stock market continues to be weak, U.S. authorities will inevitably take measures, as Trump loves to use the stock market as a scorecard, and the crypto market will react most vigorously to these measures. On March 4, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw an outflow of $143.44 million, while the ETH spot ETF saw an inflow of $15.86 million.

On March 5, the U.S. "little non-farm" employment data showed that the ADP employment number for February was 77,000, far below the expected 140,000, with the previous value revised upwards to 186,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024. As more U.S. economic data points to a cooling trend, employment data is also showing a decline. The market is worried that Trump's tariff measures may exacerbate the already weak U.S. economy, and traders are betting that the Fed will likely resume interest rate cuts as early as May. The interest rate market indicates that traders are pricing in over a 50% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in May, fully pricing in three cuts in 2025. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that if budget balance is achieved, interest rates will be significantly lowered, leading to maximum growth in the stock market and the economy. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the likelihood of a U.S. recession is very low. The White House cryptocurrency summit will begin at 2:30 AM on Saturday, March 8, with Fox reporting that attendees include executives from various crypto companies such as Coinbase, Chainlink, Exodus, and Strategy. Trump will personally preside over the event, and his cryptocurrency and AI advisor David Sacks, along with Bo Hines, the executive director of the President's Digital Asset Working Group (PEG), will also attend. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that Trump will announce the BTC strategic reserve at the White House cryptocurrency summit, with other tokens being treated favorably but differently. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will host a CEO forum on March 6 to discuss tokenized assets and how stablecoins can serve as collateral in the futures market.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold a series of roundtable discussions on March 21 to discuss key areas of crypto asset regulation. Citibank analysts stated that the likelihood of the U.S. establishing a cryptocurrency strategic reserve is increasing, particularly after Trump announced that BTC and ETH would be included in the reserves. The U.S. currently holds approximately $19 billion in crypto assets, with gold reserves reaching $750 billion; if other digital assets are added in the future, they may need to be purchased on the open market. Polymarket predicts that the probability of the U.S. establishing a BTC reserve by 2025 has risen to 68%. On March 5, the U.S. dollar index fell more than 1%, breaking below 106, 105, down to 104.4 points for the first time since November of last year. The Nasdaq rose by 0.9% during the day, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.7%, and BTC surged over 5%, reaching $90,000. Due to weakening growth prospects for the U.S. economy, the market expects the Fed to further cut rates by 76 basis points (more than three cuts of 25 basis points) in 2025, and the probability of a rate cut in May has risen to 50% (the strength of the dollar index often presents a negative correlation with the Fed's interest rates). On Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls were reported at a previous value of 143,000, with an expectation of 153,000, and the ADP employment data on Wednesday fell short of expectations. Expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Fed are reaching a bottom and have begun to rise back to three cuts; in 2023 and 2024, the expected number of cuts rose to 5-6 times. Under optimistic rate cut scenarios, the crypto market has also shown general upward trends, and this year's situation is reminiscent of that. Trump's BTC reserve strategy is being advanced, and if realized, the large purchasing power it unleashes could likely stimulate a market recovery, marking a new phase in the bull market. Waiting for the mid-term bottom rebound in this round of the crypto market.