The advisor discusses hot topics:

First, let's talk about the fear and greed index, which soared to 90 this past Monday. This officially announced that the market had entered a state of extreme greed, as if everyone had become an Afanti in the crypto world.

However, history tells us that the advisor personally believes this is not necessarily a good thing. There have been three instances in the past few years where it touched 90 or even higher: late June 2019, late October 2020 to early February 2021, and early March 2024.

Looking back at historical performance, the peaks in 2019 and 2024 were like the climax of a bubble drama. They came quickly and left just as fast, with the market swiftly returning to reality from the extreme fantasy of (I can definitely get rich).

The only time the extreme greed state lasted for more than ten weeks was during the bull market from October 2020 to the first quarter of 2021. The advisor remembers that the greed index peaked at 95, and market sentiment was off the charts. What happened in the end? Only when all retail investors' enthusiasm was drained did the market finally slow down.

So the question arises, is this a quick battle and decision-type reversal, or a long-term carnival of the bull market climax? History may be reminding us: the oscillating market from bear to bull, extreme greed is like puffing up one's face to look fat, it simply cannot be sustained.

However, once entering the climax period of a bull market, it becomes an emotional marathon until everyone collapses at the finish line.

But facing the ebb and flow of market sentiment, let's not take it too seriously. Perhaps in the end, we can only sigh: overthought, leeks are always leeks, just this time it's a version with 'self-added seasoning'!

The FOMO sentiment of American investors is like a washed-up internet celebrity; last night's surge from the U.S. market opening to the early morning was essentially ignited by the explosive news that $MSTR and four other stocks were 'collectively buying BTC.'

But it seems that this fire hasn't even burned hot yet, and it's already starting to cool down, turning into a small exit of liquidity.

Even if it briefly surged to 92K, Bitcoin's price is still like a trending star walking on the edge of hot search, hovering around 90K. The excitement of the elections has already passed, and although MSTR's news caused a stir for a while, it seems it couldn't make Bitcoin hard for too long (you know, these days it's hard to stay hard).

Of course, the advisor does not recommend rushing to short, as the emotions are cooling down. However, the market's wild operation expectations have not yet been rewritten; who knows when it might pull off a big move that makes you question life in an instant.

In the past two days, Bitcoin's turnover rate has rarely dropped below the weekend levels, and it has decreased after the U.S. market opened. This indicates that the high turnover caused by the price increase over the weekend has weakened. Currently, the main players are profit-takers from short-term long positions above $80,000. The support level is between $87,000-$91,000. Although the market is not panicking for now, it still needs time to build a bottom.

As for the many mentions of Bitcoin's URPD (Realized Price Distribution) gaps at 77K, 78K, and 82.5K, although the price does not necessarily need to drop to fill them, history shows that these gaps eventually get repaired.

The advisor looks at the trend:

Last night, due to the dual impact of concerns over slowing interest rate cuts and expectations for relaxed regulation in the U.S. market, Bitcoin experienced severe fluctuations.

Currently, due to the improvement in institutional investors' sentiment, the market has turned to an upward trend and has maintained a low point in the short term. It is advisable to pay attention to the trend within the converging pattern to grasp the direction.

Resistance level reference:

First resistance level: 91500

Second resistance level: 92300

Support level reference:

First support level: 90400

Second support level: 89500

Today's suggestion:

Today, we need to pay attention to whether Bitcoin can hold the support line below, while also observing the breakthrough situation of the resistance above the dense area of the past box range. When support is maintained at the 120-day moving average and the downward trend line, the likelihood of breaking through the resistance area will increase.

In an ideal scenario, if the price does not touch the second support level, it will be more favorable for an upward movement. If the first support level is maintained, the range of 90.4K~90.8K can be set as a super short-term phased entry zone, and the rebound expectation can continue.


Currently, attention needs to be paid to whether the key support level can be maintained. If the support is held, the rebound view can continue; if it breaks below support, it will be necessary to consider a trend reversal.

11.19 Advisor's segment pre-stored:

Long entry reference: Light long near 90400, if it retraces to 89500, go long directly, target: 91500-92300

Short entry reference: Light short at 91500-91800, directly short around 92300, target: 90400-89500#市场围绕90K