Using N times the Realized Price to capture the top of the BTC bull market is a good method (as shown in Figure 1)
However, the biggest problem is that as the volume of BTC grows, the bull market multiples are decreasing, causing the N-fold Realized Price to gradually deviate from the bull market top (as shown in Figure 2).
The solution is to abandon N*Realized Price and use:
(BTC: Cumulative average of MVRV + BTC: Cumulative standard deviation of MVRV*N) * Realized Price
The effect is shown by the red line in Figure 3. At the bull peak in 2021, the red line has not deviated from the bull peak.
Then add a curve that fits the bottom of the bear market, and finally get a currency price model that can predict both the top of the bull market and the bottom of the bear market of Bitcoin (as shown in Figure 4)
